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Cash & Carry

  • #61
  • Oct 5, 2005 10:06pm Oct 5, 2005 10:06pm
Quoting electricsavant
maybe I should stop using the term...
nah....was just a lil' humourous thing..wouldn't let it faze yah...
  • #62
  • Edited 6:04am Oct 6, 2005 5:18am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting electricsavant
you might PM JJ...read his posts here earlier, he has open office and is working on the problem, I believe...
Oh, how boring! I ended up borrowing a copy, studying your sheet and building an ugly version in Open Office.

And the link to http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-correlation.htm helps heaps, thanks ES.
grist for the mill
  • #63
  • Oct 6, 2005 7:45am Oct 6, 2005 7:45am
Just closed the anti-carry that I opened this morning for +28% gain on margin used.
I closed the short AUDJPY and long USDMXN not long after opening as they didn't move much. I kept open the long EURHUF & short USDCHF as they had some momentum to the upside.
  • #64
  • Oct 6, 2005 8:12am Oct 6, 2005 8:12am
Quoting electricsavant
May I ask how is the 33 pair basket doing? ....in percent DD?
The 33 pair USD/EUR neutral is down 18% on margin used
The vanilla 33 is down 10%
  • #65
  • Oct 6, 2005 11:32am Oct 6, 2005 11:32am
Started the CC system two days ago with a wide spread at OANDA and just now was confronted with a DD of 30%...

Praise God, it was just on the demo...

Michael, the idea continues to be worthwhile to explore! Thanks for your openness and we will never give up!
KT
  • #66
  • Oct 6, 2005 12:14pm Oct 6, 2005 12:14pm
Quoting electricsavant
Yeah...glad I dialed down the exposure a couple of days ago after that last TP...and now cut it in half for the next TP! (the crosses and the commodity pair have a hard time adjusting to these huge moves in the EUR/USD, even though the system is neutral...things will catch up and the balance will be found shortly...)

When I got those back-to-back TP's, without an ebb... I knew we were in for a rough ride..Remember, I trade with real money, but I am not worried...the next TP will be soon and then the new spreadsheet..I will probably move some more funds into Cash & Carry, now that I have dialed it down..

Look forward to the future postings of the new spreadsheet...(remember TradeVestor's, this is a daily system, and you need me to discuss and share with about the small adjustments, ideas and adaptations. Lets have some fun and learn to trade step by step...I am very conservative so don't worry...

Michael B.
Hi Michael, Thanks for your continuing efforts and input. Perhaps these three questions were already answered. I'll re-read this thread tonight to see but for now:

(1) When you say you dialled down the exposure, do you mean you simply reduced the size on the currencies, as in cutting the OANDA "units" in half?

(2) I'm still not clear on when you re-enter after TP. My understanding is that you can take TP when the UPL is positive. That makes sense because there is money there to TP with! But when do you re-enter? Is it immediately after you take profit, do you wait until the spreads are small again (morning?) or is there other criteria that you use?

(3) Which pair is the "commodity" pair?

Thank you very much ES!

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #67
  • Oct 6, 2005 2:48pm Oct 6, 2005 2:48pm
Quoting electricsavant
You folks must agree this is not a normal Wednesday and Thursday...It's like the market read this forum....and said were going to put a stop to this!

Retail sales were not that bad and so far off from the expectations..ok they came in better than expected...but man those guys are building in the next disappointment into the market...DRASTICALLY....

This hedged basket reacts rather unexpectantly, but considering the HUGE moves it is holding its own..it's not a perfect hedge, but it's near.

It will take time for the other sessions to get opened around the world and bring this back...

I had no business introducing this publically at 50:1 leverage....

Michael B.

Actually now I'm more confused, 2 questions:

1. You replied to Dial that you reduced your holdings for each pair by 2/3 but you also stated that now that the exposure is less you are going to introduce new funds into C&C so would'nt you be increasing your holdings not reducing?


2. Are you now using 20:1 leverage?




Thanks,

Sam
  • #68
  • Oct 6, 2005 2:55pm Oct 6, 2005 2:55pm
Hi Beachie,
How are your Baskets doing? Can you give us an update?
Thanks,
KT
  • #69
  • Oct 6, 2005 2:59pm Oct 6, 2005 2:59pm
Quoting electricsavant

I had no business introducing this publically at 50:1 leverage....

Michael B.
We forgive you... We are all failing forward!
KT
  • #70
  • Oct 6, 2005 3:04pm Oct 6, 2005 3:04pm
Quoting electricsavant
If I had 50k in there, I don't want to have to sell my house to save the account...and at 50:1 there might have been a margin call!!!
Michael, I will keep track on the 50:1. Just to see what actually is going to happen. Tomorrow it will be interesting to see if I indeed will get a margin call due to NFP. Perhaps it will shoot to the opposite...

Max DD up to know has been about -36% with a wide starting spread.
KT
  • #71
  • Edited 6:15pm Oct 6, 2005 6:05pm | Edited 6:15pm
Quoting electricsavant
Well,

This could happen with any of the currencies....

Countries can go BK and the sky can fall too...


Argentina fell and my friend lost 1 million dollars...yes 1 million in Foreign currencies....

I do not base decisions on these scenario's. Also these extremes do not make trading not in the "not gambling section" of the restuarant..

Michael B.
Sorry electric, I didn't get it. So you believe that the chance of the NZD/USD interest (or GBP/USD as a better example because GBP borrow interest & USD loan interest are almost equal but still the difference is positive) turning negative is negligeble?
  • #72
  • Oct 6, 2005 6:38pm Oct 6, 2005 6:38pm
Quoting electricsavant
These rates have stayed stable for 1.5 years. I have spoken to other traders about your question wityh more historical reference than I, and they agree, that this negligable.

My answer would be to deal with this, when it happens...

You asked and answered the question. May I ask what your point is?..and if you have a deeper concern, please come out with it?

A price of an instrument changes faster and is more volatile than the interest rates of a country...

Michael B.
My question is what should I do in case interest changes from positive to negative? Should I take a loss & reverse the direction? For GPB/USD pair for example it might happen pretty soon.
  • #73
  • Oct 7, 2005 9:21am Oct 7, 2005 9:21am
Quoting electricsavant
I haven't calculated it...too many pair and I am waiting for TP to get the new exposures in...

probabley less than 20:1....4260 units is the NZD/USD units....compared to the 12,784 units it is currently

ES,

Which leverage are you using now? 10:1, 20:1, 30:1?

Sam
  • #74
  • Oct 7, 2005 9:38am Oct 7, 2005 9:38am
Quoting electricsavant
1/3rd of 50:1 at the next TP...too hard to calculate, my FX math is not that good...Some pair max out at 25:1 at Oanda...I always have the platform set at 50:1 even though I do not come close to using it..

I have revised the rules tab...see today's spreadsheet.

Michael B.

Bingo! My brain woke up, thats what was confusing me, I kept thinking the platform leverage, so you call what % of available leverage your using your actual leverage, as you said which you control by units, dig it.

Sam
  • #75
  • Oct 7, 2005 10:56am Oct 7, 2005 10:56am
Its the same no? Just hurts more with higher leverage than lower I believe.

Sam
  • #76
  • Edited 8:34am Oct 8, 2005 8:18am | Edited 8:34am
Found this link on one of the Oanda threads.

Lots of Interest rate info.

http://www.rbccm.com/cm/file/0,,64173,00.pdf


edit: www.rbccm.com - research/currency..
grist for the mill
  • #77
  • Edited 12:17pm Oct 8, 2005 11:23am | Edited 12:17pm
They seem to love the Loonie
grist for the mill
  • #78
  • Oct 8, 2005 4:21pm Oct 8, 2005 4:21pm
Hi Michael,

I survived the NFP yesterday without any problem. So, no MC. Max DD was about -36%. Quite heavy in the red figures though....
However, I got paid again, and again, and ....

Let us see and wait what next week will give us with this overleveraged account at 50:1. It could very well be that next week we are on a plus 36% with this kind of dangerous leverage. What it can do to the negative side, it can also do to the positive. I will continue to hang in there...
KT
  • #79
  • Oct 9, 2005 6:51pm Oct 9, 2005 6:51pm
Quoting ElectricSavant
Try telling your fellow traders, I have never had a losing day. I realize profit everyday and I do not even need to look at my charts or trade. And the best part is ...I trade without Stops Watch their faces....

Michael B.

P.S. (actually there is a mental stop/uncle point of -30% DD)

Hi Michael,

May I know why would you have an uncle point for this system? Would you consider injecting more cash into the system when -30% DD is reached instead?


Matsu
  • #80
  • Oct 9, 2005 8:41pm Oct 9, 2005 8:41pm
Hi, on friday I got ~$5 interest but on Saturday and Sunday I only got around $1 .

None of my positions changed over the weekend. What would cause this?
grist for the mill
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