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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,801
  • Mar 18, 2007 5:47pm Mar 18, 2007 5:47pm
Quoting hazz
Sydney March 19. The Chinese
decision to raise rates 27bps in a bid to control inflation and growth at the
weekend has resulted in a stronger JPY and softer commodity currencies in early
trading. The USD/JPY closed in NY around 116.70 and has traded down to 116.31,
the EUR/JPY closed at 155.40 and has tested 154.91, while the EUR/USD opened
around 1.3237 and dipped to 1.3205.
The AUD closed in NY at 0.7963 and has traded in a 0.7932/50 range and the Kiwi
closed at 0.6975 and has seen 0.6944/65.
The response of the Asian equity and commodity markets to the Chinese rate rise
will be the key for the currencies in Asia today
Hazz,

Do you have DRT website address? I'd like to check out the daily analysis of GBP/PY from his website.
  • #1,802
  • Mar 18, 2007 5:53pm Mar 18, 2007 5:53pm
Quoting hazz
Sydney March 19. The Chinese
decision to raise rates 27bps in a bid to control inflation and growth at the
weekend has resulted in a stronger JPY and softer commodity currencies in early
trading. The USD/JPY closed in NY around 116.70 and has traded down to 116.31,
the EUR/JPY closed at 155.40 and has tested 154.91, while the EUR/USD opened
around 1.3237 and dipped to 1.3205.
The AUD closed in NY at 0.7963 and has traded in a 0.7932/50 range and the Kiwi
closed at 0.6975 and has seen 0.6944/65.
The response of the Asian equity and commodity markets to the Chinese rate rise
will be the key for the currencies in Asia today
so what would a target for gbp/jpy be based on news like this?
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #1,803
  • Mar 18, 2007 5:54pm Mar 18, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting trader8686
Did you say your chart is up 153 pips now? I don't believe it.

What don't you believe? I posted that picture when I got in.

http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/9...pytradeud6.jpg

Here's all my open positions. Though I don't ask to look at your checkbook, so don't look at mine.

You can see the GBP/JPY has retraced a little, but I was up 153 when the market opened.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #1,804
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:04pm Mar 18, 2007 6:04pm
Quoting Monk
so what would a target for gbp/jpy be based on news like this?

Monk
to be honest i dont trade fundamentals, i just read analysis for fun or to understand how the market acts sometimes, like this drop early. i just trade based on my technicals indicators and since they r still showing short im still short
  • #1,805
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:05pm Mar 18, 2007 6:05pm
I am not much of a fundamental trader, but I do like formations.

There is a very nice head and shoulders on the 1H chart which has completed the right shoulder and has then gone on to break the neckline. On the basis of that formation, the target is around 224.25. This fits well with the fact that I find the next reasonably strong support to be 225.50.
  • #1,806
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:11pm Mar 18, 2007 6:11pm
Quoting moonchild
I am not much of a fundamental trader, but I do like formations.

There is a very nice head and shoulders on the 1H chart which has completed the right shoulder and has then gone on to break the neckline. On the basis of that formation, the target is around 224.25. This fits well with the fact that I find the next reasonably strong support to be 225.50.
I agree, see post 1778.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #1,807
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:12pm Mar 18, 2007 6:12pm
Quoting Vensik
What don't you believe? I posted that picture when I got in.

http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/9...pytradeud6.jpg

Here's all my open positions. Though I don't ask to look at your checkbook, so don't look at mine.

You can see the GBP/JPY has retraced a little, but I was up 153 when the market opened.
Great Trading, congrats.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,808
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:21pm Mar 18, 2007 6:21pm
Quoting trader8686
Hazz,

Do you have DRT website address? I'd like to check out the daily analysis of GBP/PY from his website.
sorry dude what site r u talking about?
i got some analysis of 3 sites but they barely give g/j analysis, but i use u/j and e/j ones to understand a little whats happening with g/j. but im not sure if we r allowed to post links here.
  • #1,809
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:21pm Mar 18, 2007 6:21pm
Quoting Vensik
I agree, see post 1778.
Sorry, I seem to have missed that post of your over the weekend. In my time zone that was a little early for a Sunday. Anyway, the formation was not completed at the time, but it is now. The most common place for a head and shoulders to go wrong is in the formation of the right shoulder with the price continuing up from the tip of the shoulder instead of turning back down toward the neckline and lower. Anyway, now it is completed, so the taget is between 224.50 and 224.20 or so based on the formation.

I have given up trying to second guess what will occur with news. Sometimes the opposite of what should logically occur, sometimes virtually nothing at all. Formations are more reliable.
  • #1,810
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:52pm Mar 18, 2007 6:52pm
uhhhh.....
we still headed south or not?
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #1,811
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:53pm Mar 18, 2007 6:53pm
I will kill it if it breaches the fib at 226.25 and reenter after some retracement. I don't mind booking 100 pips.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #1,812
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:58pm Mar 18, 2007 6:58pm
yes look for the 222.80's 223.00's before we continue our move up to 238.00's. todays gap will fill first then the shorts will be on again to 222.80's area with this pairs atr hopefully we will arrive here by tuesday..... and start the longs.....

Quoting Monk
uhhhh.....
we still headed south or not?
  • #1,813
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:01pm Mar 18, 2007 7:01pm
Quoting fixme1too
yes look for the 222.80's 223.00's before we continue our move up to 238.00's. todays gap will fill first then the shorts will be on again to 222.80's area with this pairs atr hopefully we will arrive here by tuesday..... and start the longs.....
I agree, if it breaches 222.50ish though. Man it could go.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #1,814
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:03pm Mar 18, 2007 7:03pm
Quoting fixme1too
yes look for the 222.80's 223.00's before we continue our move up to 238.00's. todays gap will fill first then the shorts will be on again to 222.80's area with this pairs atr hopefully we will arrive here by tuesday..... and start the longs.....
That was not a gap, that was a spike. My chart has it filled up with a spike.
Ref: message 1791 as well.
However: MT4 is a gap, strange ????
  • #1,815
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:07pm Mar 18, 2007 7:07pm
If your broker was closed, it looks like a gap. However there is data there, if you trade with Oanda or have a feed through the weekend.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #1,816
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:12pm Mar 18, 2007 7:12pm
yes on the mt4 charts the open was really lower than last fridays close...
oanda charts open at 2 or 3 pm est for me and opened at fridays close.
but when you have such a big move premarket open on mt4, more times than not it will go back to 78% of the move which would put us back near the close of last friday from this point looking to short after what most would consider a gap down if they are not privy to pre market movement..... 226.55 to 84 good area to reenter shorts..

Quoting trader8686
That was not a gap, that was a spike. My chart has it filled up with a spike.
Ref: message 1791 as well.
However: MT4 is a gap, strange ????
  • #1,817
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:12pm Mar 18, 2007 7:12pm
Quoting Vensik
If your broker was closed, it looks like a gap. However there is data there, if you trade with Oanda or have a feed through the weekend.
If there is data there, should we still fill up the gap ? That's what confused me.
(Looks like it is doing so, now.)
  • #1,818
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:17pm Mar 18, 2007 7:17pm
Just like last Sunday, all gaps get filled eventually.
  • #1,819
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:18pm Mar 18, 2007 7:18pm
Quoting fixme1too
yes on the mt4 charts the open was really lower than last fridays close...
oanda charts open at 2 or 3 pm est for me and opened at fridays close.
but when you have such a big move premarket open on mt4, more times than not it will go back to 78% of the move which would put us back near the close of last friday from this point looking to short after what most would consider a gap down if they are not privy to pre market movement..... 226.55 to 84 good area to reenter shorts..
Look at what it is doing,
I totally agree with you, now.
Plus, if a spike happened before market opened, it should be retraced back, too. That will make it look like a fill up of the gap.
  • #1,820
  • Mar 18, 2007 7:28pm Mar 18, 2007 7:28pm
fixme1too,

We may be earlier than 226.50-80 to fill up the gap.
(Just my personal warning, you may ignore it.)
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