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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #153,501
  • Jan 16, 2009 4:36am Jan 16, 2009 4:36am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Maybe, but in my experience divergencies are like a secondary signal, not a primary one. We'd go broke very quickly if we placed all our faith on diverg when markets are moving this far this quickly.

My untrained VSA eye says no shorts yet.
thanks for insight. a close above 135.3 could see us test 136.6 (61.8% fib area). Right?
  • #153,502
  • Jan 16, 2009 4:37am Jan 16, 2009 4:37am
Quoting mirex
i'm dying to get my account with volume so i can see this magic stuff. LOL

although i should really get some sleep. Wonder if i can call in sick again tomorrow....lol
lol...it's no magic in trending markets, everything works.
when it comes to top&bottompicking and knowing when to enter for a possible reversal with low risk it begins to get a little bit more difficult, not as easy as it seems or as we sometimes post

there is much more to this than the no demand bars etc. we post. no demand e.g. is just the final trigger in the right spot after we know market is weak.
learn learn learn...read the book over and over again and check you charts. it is worth the time and possible headache needed to learn to read the supply & demand situation on the charts.

i do not see any signs of accumulation going on up there and it never takes place after substantial rises. i think we just have been hit sideways due to partial profittaking and remaining shorts on previous selloff area 135. a breather. accumulation begins when the market drops and finishes before the market begins to move. then the early adopters (vsa traders ) join the party, followed by the ppl juming on the traind when they see market begins to move and finally the idiotmoney, joining the party when it is pretty much over and profittaking/+ potantial distribution taking place on the final breathers of the move.
  • #153,503
  • Jan 16, 2009 4:46am Jan 16, 2009 4:46am
Quoting dialpips
thanks for insight. a close above 135.3 could see us test 136.6 (61.8% fib area). Right?
There's also resistance at 136.15 ish. Look across your hour TF and you will see what I mean.
  • #153,504
  • Jan 16, 2009 4:47am Jan 16, 2009 4:47am
Quoting yentastic
Why are you fighting a strong up trend?

If you are scalping for say 20 pips thats ok as i do this all time but it seems your trying to find top of a move down for say 100-200 pips this is going to hurt.

Just a little tip from me would be buy the dips until we see a down trend many new traders do this and lose follow not fight trends.

Good luck my friend
You are right, I'm trying to find the top, but this is my last try!

Thank you bro
Addicted to FX
  • #153,505
  • Jan 16, 2009 4:48am Jan 16, 2009 4:48am
***i do not see any signs of accumulation going on up there and it never takes place after substantial rises. i think we just have been hit sideways due to partial profittaking and remaining shorts on previous selloff area 135. a breather. accumulation begins when the market drops and finishes before the market begins to move. then the early adopters (vsa traders ) join the party, followed by the ppl juming on the traind when they see market begins to move and finally the idiotmoney, joining the party when it is pretty much over and profittaking/+ potantial distribution taking place on the final breathers of the move.***

Thanks for posting this. It's good to get feedback on my thoughts.
  • #153,506
  • Jan 16, 2009 4:48am Jan 16, 2009 4:48am
10m showing some weakness, which might be absorbed and the move be continued, which would show freaking strength. generally we are vulnerable here to shorting, because we are in an overbought situation on the upper quartile of the steep, but valid, channel which is in play since yesterday. also we are located at previous tops and when buying dries up here, i do not see us break them. only thing needed for drop is somebody stepping in and short this thing.
2m makes slight attempts to form a potential kind of rollover-top since 90m.

s&p btw. is up over 10 points since close yesterday, adding to my rally view.
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  • #153,507
  • Jan 16, 2009 4:51am Jan 16, 2009 4:51am
where this upmove will stop.
Looking at the daily it's clear that there is a downtrend in place and this is only a retracement.
Is this retracement going to 141.72 and beyond or will it go a a new low before bouncing to 141.72 and beyond?
  • #153,508
  • Jan 16, 2009 4:51am Jan 16, 2009 4:51am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
lol...it's no magic in trending markets, everything works.
when it comes to top&bottompicking and knowing when to enter for a possible reversal with low risk it begins to get a little bit more difficult, not as easy as it seems or as we sometimes post

there is much more to this than the no demand bars etc. we post. no demand e.g. is just the final trigger in the right spot after we know market is weak.
learn learn learn...read the book over and over again and check you charts. it is worth the time and possible headache needed to learn to read...
why the volume is less in this upmove compared to the volume of yesterday's sideways moment? any reasoning will be helpful Dr.
  • #153,509
  • Jan 16, 2009 4:55am Jan 16, 2009 4:55am
Short from 135.41. Bit early perhaps, but we'll see what happens...
  • #153,510
  • Jan 16, 2009 4:57am Jan 16, 2009 4:57am
Quoting geppypips
why the volume is less in this upmove compared to the volume of yesterday's sideways moment? any reasoning will be helpful Dr.
because during sideways movements positions are built and the base is formed to rise. eating up the ask by removing supply until market makers need to move to higher levels where they have orderblocks located. when the move has begun, the mass joins the party and buys since they see rising prices, and professionals just re-buy just as much to keep the rally going. you see it by looking at e.g. the 30m charts. the low of every bar is supported, just one down bar appearing from time to time and every barcloses higher. they need to support the lows to stay in control of the move and keep it going.
  • #153,511
  • Jan 16, 2009 5:02am Jan 16, 2009 5:02am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
because during sideways movements positions are built and the base is formed to rise. eating up the ask by removing supply until market makers need to move to higher levels where they have orderblocks located. when the move has begun, the mass joins the party and buys since they see rising prices, and professionals just re-buy just as much to keep the rally going. you see it by looking at e.g. the 30m charts. the low of every bar is supported, just one down bar appearing from time to time and every barcloses higher. they need to support the lows...
thanks Dr. you explain it crystal clear.
  • #153,512
  • Jan 16, 2009 5:02am Jan 16, 2009 5:02am
What I see now.

H1 TF show - GJ totally overbought, however H4 TF ..show...GJ has more room to go to north may be around 139.20. At the moment just lock the profit....if GJ start down it is because H1 chart (totally overbought....)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #153,513
  • Jan 16, 2009 5:05am Jan 16, 2009 5:05am
GM guys,started reading the vsa pdf yday.so u can actually turn pro by jst mastering pvsa instead of filling up ur charts wit different technical indicators.now dats wat im talkin about (simplicity). thnx to malcomb, dr.geppypius, ukdaytrader. keep up the good wrk guys
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #153,514
  • Jan 16, 2009 5:09am Jan 16, 2009 5:09am
Quoting squeezy
GM guys,started reading the vsa pdf yday.so u can actually turn pro by jst mastering pvsa instead of filling up ur charts wit different technical indicators.now dats wat im talkin about (simplicity). thnx to malcomb, dr.geppypius, ukdaytrader. keep up the good wrk guys
most of the technicals do nothing else than calculating what happened in the past and removing significance by averaging or smoothing.

when being able to read charts you do not need all that stuff and can do much better thant with that lagging stuff.
  • #153,515
  • Jan 16, 2009 5:11am Jan 16, 2009 5:11am
we just had highest vol 10m downbar pinbar shape of the last 20 hours.
vol excessive compared to the previous.
expect something to go on soon.
  • #153,516
  • Jan 16, 2009 5:19am Jan 16, 2009 5:19am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
most of the technicals do nothing else than calculating what happened in the past and removing significance by averaging or smoothing.

when being able to read charts you do not need all that stuff and can do much better thant with that lagging stuff.
thnx, it definately makes more sense to predict wat is going to happen and back it up wit facts rather than use technicals which show wat had happened already. back to reading for me...cheers mate
more grease to ur elbow
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #153,517
  • Jan 16, 2009 5:23am Jan 16, 2009 5:23am
i think GU is heading to 1.5020 so i guess GJ still have more room to go up
  • #153,518
  • Jan 16, 2009 5:35am Jan 16, 2009 5:35am
Looks like its going for the trendline and then some serious downside might well be on the cards
Attached Image
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #153,519
  • Jan 16, 2009 5:39am Jan 16, 2009 5:39am
Quoting toyboy tramp
Looks like its going for the trendline and then some serious downside might well be on the cards
can you clearify? usd index going down?
  • #153,520
  • Jan 16, 2009 5:40am Jan 16, 2009 5:40am
Quoting mirex
can you clearify? usd index going down?
If a right shoulder forms watch for the break
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
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