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VantagePoint discussion thread

Quoting Tango46
Sorry, I misspoke in the post above -- should have said " ...the PLow predicted for 5Jan is also heading down..." not 6Jan.

Tango46,

Which version of VP do you have?
Quoting 89tick
Tango46,

Which version of VP do you have?
Tick: I have v8.01, and use CRB data.....

Do you trade the tick charts?
Here's an updated chart for the trade we've been following in the last few posts.....

We entered GBPUSD long at the open on 2Jan, based on the Easy Cruise Method analysis on the evening of 31Dec...

initial SL was placed 12pips below the low on 31Dec...

a 100pip target based on the 2Jan entry was hit later the same day...

a 200pip target based on the 2Jan entry was hit 2 trading days later, on 6Jan, and we began using the predicted PLow as the SL on 7Jan....

At the close on 9Jan we see the trend appears to be breaking down, because:
-- the pair formed an 'inside day' doji candle, and
-- the PStr and PTSDiff indicators have crossed below the PTMDiff indicator and are headed down...
-- plus PHigh and PLow for the next day are also heading down...

At this point, the purest form of the Easy Cruise Method is to maintain the position and hold the SL at the 9Jan PLow, since the PLow predicted for the next trading day is lower than the current PLow. We realize it ~is possible the trend will resume (see the bars formed on 12Dec & 24Dec for examples)...

More conservative actions would be to
-- close out the position or
-- close 1/2 the position and/or
-- move the SL to 12pips below the 9Jan low

If we choose to close out the trade completely at this point and wait for another entry signal, the 3rd leg of the trade has gone almost 500pips from the entry on 2Jan... if we hold the position and get hit at our current SL at the current PLow, we are still looking at basically 400pips on the 3rd leg... Cool!

I call that a "Happy New Year" result! Hope you've been along for the ride.

Cheers and Good Hunting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting Tango46
Tick: I have v8.01, and use CRB data.....

Do you trade the tick charts?
Yes amongst other things I use an 89 tick chart to trade the e mini DOW, recently I've even used a 25 tick chart because things have been so slow. Hopefully the volume will return this week because its been like watching paint dry lately.

I thought you actually had an older version of VP, I think they used the P3EMA previously though I cant remember exactly when.
Quoting 89tick
Yes amongst other things I use an 89 tick chart to trade the e mini DOW, recently I've even used a 25 tick chart because things have been so slow. Hopefully the volume will return this week because its been like watching paint dry lately.

I thought you actually had an older version of VP, I think they used the P3EMA previously though I cant remember exactly when.

Tick, as stated in post #1192:

VP Indicators Employed
P3EMA+1 3 day EMA predicted 1 day ahead
(this is the short term EMA used in the 3EMA set included in VP)
PNI Predicted neural index
PStr Predicted strength
PTSDiff Predicted difference in short term EMA
PTMDiff Predicted difference in medium term EMA
PHigh Predicted next day high price
PLow Predicted next day low price
Thanks all your post Tango46! I hope this Vantage Point 8.1 forum becomes alive.
On Friday I decided to purchase VantagePoint 8.1 because i know this software can give me 70-80% forecast trend and direction. I have been watching all the trades from VantagePoint Forecast. It is pretty amazing, but i believe I have to commit to use this trading method. As my friend Ivan advice me this is not an intra-day or scapling method, but a longer term method where i get into trends and stay with them sometimes for weeks. You may see the chart and review the results; EUR/GBP, EURJPY, AUD/USD, Crude Oil, Wheat and Hang Seng Index.
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Quoting felixcatwa
Thanks all your post Tango46! I hope this Vantage Point 8.1 forum becomes alive.
On Friday I decided to purchase VantagePoint 8.1 because i know this software can give me 70-80% forecast trend and direction. I have been watching all the trades from VantagePoint Forecast. It is pretty amazing, but i believe I have to commit to use this trading method. As my friend Ivan advice me this is not an intra-day or scapling method, but a longer term method where i get into trends and stay with them sometimes for weeks. You may see the chart and review the...
Cool, FelixCatWa, Thanks for posting. Would you please post the entry/exit/stop loss rules you are using?

Maybe we should start a new thread for people to post & discuss current VP trades, using the various approaches.
I received an email from a guy named Chris Lee today, that contained the text below... my experience is, -- what he says is true!

Regardless of the advantages & insights we enjoy with VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis software or not...

What Chris says is a restatement of the kinds of things BB and others have said here, over the years.

I wanted to share it with you...

We have to be 'ever vigilant' & stick to our trading rules, especially risk management -- because that is how 'we live to fight another day'.

----------------------------------------------------------------

> Most people have heard of Tiger Woods' success, but few actually
> pay attention to how long he took to become successful.
>
> Without a doubt, any worthwhile endeavor will take a significant
> amount of time and effort before success can be achieved.
>
> Tiger Woods took a good number of years to achieve his level of
> success today. Even with a coach, he had failed multiple times
> before he finally became a worldwide icon of professional golf.
>
> And yet most people expect to start being profitable in Forex
> immediately after they read a book, or after reading some free
> information off a website.
>
> So if you're just starting out in Forex, allow me to share with you
> this painful but necessary message:
>
> "You will fail!"
>
> In Forex, more than anything else, you will most certainly fail to
> make money, at least at first. You must be comfortable with
> accepting losses and learning from your mistakes. That's the only
> way to be profitable in the long run.
>
> You will experience a lot of pain, frustration and feelings of
> hopelessness. That's just how it is. You will experience failure,
> after failure, after failure.
>
> If you expect to start making good money in a few weeks or months,
> than you're just kidding yourself.
>
> I don't mean to offend you, and I sincerely apologize if I have.
> But you must realize that Forex trading is not a "quick-fix"
> solution to your money problems.
>
> To be a consistent winner, you'll need to work hard, love trading,
> and never give up. It's a tough journey, I won't deny that. But I
> can say that the rewards will be well worth all the effort and
> trouble.
>
> Your willingness to accept failure and keep an open mind is crucial
> to eventually become a successful and wealthy trader.
>
> This is the mindset most traders will never develop, and is the
> reason why they will keep losing money.
>
> The three words that distinguish the winning traders from the
> losing ones are: Guidance, Practice and Determination.
>
> Now, the question is: are you willing to put in the necessary
> investment of time, effort and money to learn how to be a
> successful trader?
>
> Only you will know the answer to that question.
Quoting felixcatwa
Thanks all your post Tango46! I hope this Vantage Point 8.1 forum becomes alive.
On Friday I decided to purchase VantagePoint 8.1 because i know this software can give me 70-80% forecast trend and direction. I have been watching all the trades from VantagePoint Forecast. It is pretty amazing, but i believe I have to commit to use this trading method. As my friend Ivan advice me this is not an intra-day or scapling method, but a longer term method where i get into trends and stay with them sometimes for weeks. You may see the chart and review the...

Felixcatwa,

Vantagepoint dont claim to give you 80% accurate forecasts, in fact they do not claim to give you forecasts at all if you read the small print. The 80% claim relates to the Neural Index only and it does not relate to being able to predict the direction of the market the next day, it relates to a complex set of averages based on previous price.

You'd be better to take your trades on a simulator for now because you will not be getting 75% or 80% successful trades as you seem to think. In my experience 50% is a more realistic percentage.
Quoting Tango46

... Check out the VP (& other) webinars at

http://www.traderplanet.com/index.php?page=webinars

(the VP webinars are at the bottom of page)
In case anyone is interested or haven't seen it, here is a link to the 8.0 webinars

http://www.tradertech.com/LearningCenter/#3

(if clicking the link does not work copy and paste it)
This thread has gone quiet, how is version 8 going? Would it be safe to assume VP trades are going through a drawdown hence nobody is posting their trades any more, I know that's what's happened a lot in other threads.
Quoting 89tick
This thread has gone quiet, how is version 8 going? Would it be safe to assume VP trades are going through a drawdown hence nobody is posting their trades any more, I know that's what's happened a lot in other threads.
Tick, Not at all. Just been busy with traveling & other life stuff. VP continues to 'light the way', and the EZ Cruise Method is hanging in there. I'll aim to post some recent trade info this weekend...

Are you trading with VP?
Following the 2 Jan trade closed out 9 Jan (discussed earlier, Post #1203 above)...

here are the trades up through 24Feb09 on GBP/USD using the EZ Cruise method:

(note, entry signals provided by VP the evening of the day prior to the entry date listed below)

13 Jan short +100, +200, +84 = 384
21 Jan short +100, +200, -59 = 241
27 Jan long +100, +200, +142 = 442
6 Feb long +100, +200, +105 = 405
11 Feb short +100, +200, +29 = 329
20 Feb long -36x3 = -108
23 Feb long +100, +200, 0 = 300

Total: 1993 pips -- 6 winners out of 7 trades (85%)

As the volatility has been decreasing a bit... staying conservative, more pips can be gained by closing 1/3 the position at 100pips profit.. and 2/3 the position at 200pips profit... This would've yielded 2,892 pips via the trades listed above, an increase of 900 pips...

Also, another practical note: when entering a trade... if by the time you finish your VP analysis after the trading day... price has moved away from the closing price, "in the wrong direction", consider placing a limit order to enter at the analysis day's closing price or better... This usually works -- take a look at your daily charts... and you will see that one day's closing price.. is usually hit again early the following day.

Keep Cruisin & good trading

p.s. as of 00:47GMT 26Feb09, I have entered GBPUSD short based on the EZCruise method...



NOTE: This will be my last trade post on this ForexFactory forum..

I am going to establish a Vantage Point trades forum over on TraderPlanet & post my GBP/USD trades there, based on the EZCruise method.

Check it out at: http://traderplanet.com/forums/

Its kind of like 'facebook for traders'

I'll post a note back here with a specific link to my VP trades forum when i get it set up

--------------------------------

The short GBP/USD trade opened on 26Feb was successful.

The 100pip profit target was hit on the 27Feb, and
the 200pip target was hit on 2March

As mentioned in the previous post, I opted to target 1/3rd the position at the 100pip level, and 2/3rds the position at the 200pip level;

The classic EZCruise Method would have you still in short with 1/3rd the position at this point, although you might opt to close out part or all of that now, as today's candle was a very weak dojii.

I'm currently waiting for the next entry signal from VP

Good hunting, Happy Cruisin!
Quoting mike43234
Cant believe people actually pay $2000+ for moving average crosses
This is typical of what I see with VP (see chart). The 'predicted' moving average crosses exactly where an ordinary EMA crosses. The top chart is from VP as published in an article. Bottom is a Tradestation chart of the same symbol (SP500) with a 4 period EMA. Wish I had my money back.
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Quoting elbonian
This is typical of what I see with VP (see chart). The 'predicted' moving average crosses exactly where an ordinary EMA crosses. The top chart is from VP as published in an article. Bottom is a Tradestation chart of the same symbol (SP500) with a 4 period EMA. Wish I had my money back.


Yes you're correct, now they will attempt to suspend you from this site for exposing this. You should post your findings on forexpeacearmy.com
Quoting 89tick
Yes you're correct, now they will attempt to suspend you from this site for exposing this. You should post your findings on forexpeacearmy.com
I agree with you about the MAs -- and that bothers me as well, it doesn't make sense! I would think we would see the predicted EMA looking different than the actual.

I am posting a chart below, showing trades based on using VantagePoint's Predicted Neural Index alone.. regardless of whatever the heck the MAs are doing - I have found the PNI to be a pretty reliable indicator (and that is actually the indicator their 80% accuracy advertisements are based on, not MA crosses)
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Quoting Tango46
I agree with you about the MAs -- and that bothers me as well, it doesn't make sense! I would think we would see the predicted EMA looking different than the actual.

I am posting a chart below, showing trades based on using VantagePoint's Predicted Neural Index alone.. regardless of whatever the heck the MAs are doing - I have found the PNI to be a pretty reliable indicator (and that is actually the indicator their 80% accuracy advertisements are based on, not MA crosses)

If today is an up day (close higher than open) then neural index will be 1 if it's a down day neural index will be zero. Try this and you will see a high percentage correlation to VP. Worse still the homemade NI might even be more accurate. I did this with some forex data last year. Their claims of accuracy are carefully worded, they don't predict the direction next day. Interesting that someone created the MA cross, I always wondered what the settings were.
Quoting 89tick
If today is an up day (close higher than open) then neural index will be 1 if it's a down day neural index will be zero. Try this and you will see a high percentage correlation to VP. Worse still the homemade NI might even be more accurate. I did this with some forex data last year. Their claims of accuracy are carefully worded, they don't predict the direction next day. Interesting that someone created the MA cross, I always wondered what the settings were.

Yaah, I can see what you are saying, but trading 'next day' based on today's price action - is an 'old' and 'well known' strategy - you don't actually believe that is what they've coded up in the software, and called it 'neural index', do you??

In that case, every time a new day's candle is the opposite direction from the day prior, we should see the neural index change direction -- and that just doesn't happen in the software.

There are plenty of days where the neural index changes direction, even when the price action doesn't... and plenty of days where the candle changes direction, and the neural index doesn't.
Quoting Tango46
Yaah, I can see what you are saying, but trading 'next day' based on today's price action - is an 'old' and 'well known' strategy -...
I have a spreadsheet somewhere with the comparison, it was over 90% correlated I seem to remember, will post it if I can find it. So what system are you trading now?
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