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Why "x" a secret?

  • #21
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:45am Mar 18, 2007 9:45am
Quoting linuxtroll
Your account will grow... LoL

The ultimate secret is here: http://www.thesecret.tv/
we are all working with one power.. one law.. it's attraction
  • #22
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:02am Mar 18, 2007 10:02am
I would agree with the poster that said there is no secret and it is a self-imposed barrier we put in our way to success.

I would suggest reading twoblink's threads, specifically "Twoblink and the Secret Sauce" and "Optimizing the Sauce" and one thread that I think was called "My forex thesis" or something like that. They really helped me understand Forex on a deeper level, and I think they would help you too.

Also I read somewhere that the reason the pro's say there is no secret is because they take their own knowledge and "feel" for the markets for granted, and they forget that newbies have not yet developed this. So maybe that's the secret: chart time and knowledge.

andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #23
  • Mar 18, 2007 11:11am Mar 18, 2007 11:11am
Quoting don perry

I also disagree with you that there is no secret method.

believe it exists: Combine Money management and a proper entry and exit technique and there.....You got yourselfa winning method.
And that is the point, isn't it? All of those things are talked about ad nauseam on this and other forums. Therefore, it's not a secret. It's out in the open. But where is the best place to hide something? People chose not to believe that all the info is out there in the public domain. They chose to believe that it's as secret as the Masons and if only they could gain entrance to the club they'd be successful.

As far as market inefficiencies go, they're not a secret either. One only has to learn the market and be able to find them. If someone else finds them and exploits them, so be it. It's called arbitrage, btw.
  • #24
  • Mar 18, 2007 11:12am Mar 18, 2007 11:12am
I think there's no such thing as the secret. even a 51% working system with 1:1 risk/reward ratio combined with good money management would make a successful trader.
as for newbies posting systems I have no problem with that one shouldn't take nething forgranted u have to use your brain, common sense, backtesting and forward testing then do your modifications
I salute every "newbie" who chooses to share his ideas or even his opinion over here.
and lets not forget those successful traders were once newbies till the "discovered" their so called "secret".
What if they decided to post this secret backthen in the forum? would u have considered it or just call him a newbie and raise the logo "I dnt want to be guided by a newbie" ??
  • #25
  • Mar 18, 2007 1:05pm Mar 18, 2007 1:05pm
The reason I won't share MY method has several components.

First of all, regardless of what anyone has to say about it, I KNOW that divulging the rules would render it inoperable. Some things just cannot survive when hundreds of millions in additional orders are executed against it.

Second, too many people have a false assumption about what trading actually is. Everyone thinks they can bang out some code on metatrader and if they have the right combination of rules the money will flow like water. The truth is that trading requires a considerable amount of individual thought.

Most people don't know HOW to think. I'm not being critical; it's just a fact of life. Nowhere in most people’s lives is thinking a necessary component for success. It's not that people don't ever think, or can't think mind you; they just don't really put that much effort into doing it. We're told what to do in almost every situation by our parents, teachers, and eventually supervisors at work. Just think about all the highly educated people at your day job who can't be bothered with figuring out how to remove the paper from a jammed copier. A 4 year old COULD figure it out in about 20 seconds, but since the IT people have been trained how to do it, it gets pushed off to them. Life is just too damn easy.

Trading is not so easy. You can be told how to execute orders, calculate %R, and run back tests, but if you don't think deeply about the market, you’re never going to develop really good concepts to build systems around. If you don't have a good concept, you’re really just trying random entry and exit rules hoping to get lucky. Maybe you will, but more then likely you won't. There are just too many possibilities and too few real opportunities.

Now in theory I could give away my rules to everyone but as has been previously mentioned, a trading system has to fit an individual trader’s strengths and weaknesses. A trader needs to develop his own concepts so that he can build something that is right for him. So giving my rules to someone really isn't helping them at all.

What I (and what I think most other successful traders on here) try to do is teach people how to think about the market. Am I wasting my time? For most of the members, the answer is probably yes. For many the need to be handed solutions to their problems is so ingrained in their personality that they will be long removed from the markets before what I say could have any beneficial effect. It's the 5% who use their head already, who can take my information and use it to achieve success which I spend my time here for. In my mind those people deserve to have good information to work with and I feel a sense of responsibility as an experienced trader to carry on the tradition of providing it to them.

Think about the next time you get angry at someone for not giving you their system.
  • #26
  • Mar 18, 2007 1:32pm Mar 18, 2007 1:32pm
Quoting Darkstar
The reason I won't share MY method has several components........
Darkstar, now that is one good post
  • #27
  • Mar 18, 2007 2:59pm Mar 18, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting Darkstar
.... For many the need to be handed solutions to their problems is so ingrained in their personality that they will be long removed from the markets before what I say could have any beneficial effect. ...
that's a very good post..D

R

____
...knowledge is silent, experience - priceless
  • #28
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:57pm Mar 18, 2007 8:57pm
Quoting Darkstar
Most people don't know HOW to think. I'm not being critical; it's just a fact of life. Nowhere in most people’s lives is thinking a necessary component for success. It's not that people don't ever think, or can't think mind you; they just don't really put that much effort into doing it. We're told what to do in almost every situation by our parents, teachers, and eventually supervisors at work. Just think about all the highly educated people at your day job who can't be bothered with figuring out how to remove the paper from a jammed copier. A 4 year old COULD figure it out in about 20 seconds, but since the IT people have been trained how to do it, it gets pushed off to them. Life is just too damn easy.
Great post DS!

You sound like you've done IT support. I am feeling the same frustration. I have even had someone tell me about a problem with their TV at home and then ask how to fix it. It is eletronic too, so therefore I must know it since I know about computers.

I look at the good side, the crazy people at work are motivation for my trading.

Quoting Darkstar
What I (and what I think most other successful traders on here) try to do is teach people how to think about the market. Am I wasting my time? For most of the members, the answer is probably yes. For many the need to be handed solutions to their problems is so ingrained in their personality that they will be long removed from the markets before what I say could have any beneficial effect. It's the 5% who use their head already, who can take my information and use it to achieve success which I spend my time here for. In my mind those people deserve to have good information to work with and I feel a sense of responsibility as an experienced trader to carry on the tradition of providing it to them.
I have never been one to think like the rest of the pack, but the difficulty is seeing my way through all the BS to find the bits of truth to compile in my own way to form my own method/system. Thank you to yourself and all those that help with the same intent, so those that think for themselves can wade through the BS without drowning in order to find their way.
  • #29
  • Edited 1:21am Mar 19, 2007 12:45am | Edited 1:21am
from one newbie to another, im making fast progress, if any of you wanna know how im doing it,
this is how, i started reading the j16 thread, then joined pf, now im concentrating on weekly and daily moves, and everythings coming together, take it for what it's worth.

so if your frustrated no experienced traders will share there stuff, go meet james, he shows how to do it.

Edit: The stuff I'm learning is not a system you can just get and learn in 1 day, it takes hard work and alot of time
to make it your own, just wanted to make sure no newbs go looking for some magic bullet.
  • #30
  • Mar 21, 2007 10:22am Mar 21, 2007 10:22am
Quoting g-dogg
the reality is they arent successful either,acting sucessful gets them respect from noobs, think about this, if you were successful would you spend your time trading and making craploads of money or would you spend it trying to teach a bunch of noobs??
300% agree...

same goes to robert kiyosaki...why would he teach people if he can make himself money

i felt cheated...
  • #31
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:01pm Mar 21, 2007 9:01pm
I'm not a really successful trader yet. But if I don't want to share my methods these are the reasons :

1) I don't anyone to sell things that I provided for free. People may start a signal services and things like that. Things given out for free must remains free.

You may argue that what I know is given out for free by my mentors. That's true, but my current system is unique to me. It fits my personality and it does what I like to do, not what my mentors like to do.

2) If one day I want to start a fund management business, would anyone invest with me if they know they can get the system for free online ? Not a chance.

3) I worked hard for months to develop the system. Some noob who thinks trading is easy will take my system, forward test it and throw it away when they have the first loss. Isn't that insulting ? Your hardwork has no value in these noobs' point of view. Even my boss don't treat my hardwork like that.

Instead of teaching others my system, I rather guide anyone with all my heart to build his own system. That's the best way.
  • #32
  • Mar 22, 2007 2:18pm Mar 22, 2007 2:18pm
Quoting hanz
300% agree...

Quoting g-dogg
View Post
the reality is they arent successful either,acting sucessful gets them respect from noobs, think about this, if you were successful would you spend your time trading and making craploads of money or would you spend it trying to teach a bunch of noobs??

same goes to robert kiyosaki...why would he teach people if he can make himself money
i felt cheated...
THe only Fx mentor i've been through that i feel genuine is Fx-chief.

For one his package cost $5000. That should say something
  • #33
  • Apr 29, 2007 10:07am Apr 29, 2007 10:07am
why X a secret? cuz we worked hard to discover it and the work renders it priceless
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #34
  • Apr 29, 2007 10:28am Apr 29, 2007 10:28am
Quoting FxLuke
First of all there has to be said that there is no Holy Grail, apart from big players - they KNOW when to trade in order to WIN on 100% and they aren't us. We have to however develop money managment strategy in order to have more winning trades than loosing ones. That's it - as simple as it is. Make this formula your own oath and obey it no matter what. Keep it real guys!
Why everybody belives that big players know the holy grail, they can't loose, they make the market, they are the gods of the market. Big boys loose money, especially in fx, Barings Bank is an example, another is (read about it on ff forums) what Warren Buffet said something like he never won any money on fx, all the money he could get later return to the market

Now, regarding the thread subject, why pro players don't help begginers? Maybe they are tired of answering question that they allready did with 2 or 3 threds before; anoher reason is that by letting begginers find aswers themself, they force them to think and create thinks.
My oppionion
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #35
  • Apr 29, 2007 11:27am Apr 29, 2007 11:27am
Some systems will not work anymore once everybody knows them and are using them. Take for example the news trading in the retail platforms, I believe there was a time when the professional traders were making a killing by entering before the spike on the retail platforms and maybe even in currenex, then the autoclick software came along with all the hype and the rest is history... now brokers won't let you do that anymore, sure they may let you if you play microlots or minilots but once you start trading standard lots and many of them they won't let you, one way or another they will take back any profit you made.
  • #36
  • Apr 29, 2007 12:27pm Apr 29, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting don perry
Why do some experienced traders here (apart from those who mentor me) act so stuck up with their success story and method?

most of who i see sharing "systems" and giving hints are nebwbies that either trading demo or losing real cash.

to be honest, i see newbies often leading newbies
A couple thoughts here:

1) We often want to be shown how to succeed. But sometimes it can be just as valuable to be shown how NOT to succeed. I myself am a noob in this game, but I think I've already learned some valuable lessons reading the stupid (excuse my blunt nature) ideas that some others claim to be trying. When I read the posts of some of my fellow noobs I can just feel the Dark Side of market psychology coming out in their writing and I keep making mental notes to myself to avoid that path at all costs.

2) People ultimately act in their own self interests. In aggregate, this self-interested behavior actually benefits us all. But in the short term it can be frustrating if someone else has info that you want but can't get. The key is to ask, "What would lead someone to post their wisdom/methods for free and for public consumption?" Some experienced traders have found that there IS value in posting information back to the community, but others have not - and that is there prerogative. Think about it this way: What could YOU offer to an experienced trader that would somehow make it worthwhile for them to share their information with you? You need to find some way to bring value to the table. Otherwise, you're just a beggar looking for a handout.

3) Although this does not apply to all methods, many do in fact depend upon exclusivity to work. Think about this. When you buy a currency, you want to make money on it, presumably by selling it after the price has risen. What makes the price rise? Other people buying the currency. In other words, once you've bought the currency, you need for other traders to come in after you and buy the currency as well. In other words, you need to be ahead of the crowd. Now imagine that my "grail" tells me to buy whenever indicator X and Y tell me to. Well, if thousands of traders are also looking at the same signals, then I have to hope that my buy order somehow gets transacted before all, or at least most, of theirs do. If my order is transacted after many of those traders have already pulled the trigger, my buy signal is worthless.
  • #37
  • Apr 30, 2007 12:42pm Apr 30, 2007 12:42pm
I always wondered why succesful traders keep writing about systems or books about how to trade... if you are millionaire because of being a great trader you are not going to waste your time writing books...
my theory is... the more users trading and losing... more liquidity and more money to the big pockets...
  • #38
  • Apr 30, 2007 1:32pm Apr 30, 2007 1:32pm
I am surprised to find this thread and find it very interesting. I have 1.5 years trading forex and finally y became profitable. But there are some interesting facts talking about "sharing" here @ FF

Well, at the beggining in my journal I used to share my trades with entry points, stop-loss, 3 profit taking prices etc... and the journal suddenly had a wonderful success. A lot of people visited here and even shared opinions or stuff.

Gradually I realized that a lot of newbies are into forex because they belive this is EASY MONEY... I say: Forex COULD be FAST MONEY... but EASY MONEY NEVER!!!

I learnt a lot and changed my strategy, gradually sharing less and less exact entry points, stop-losses, etc... and CURIOUSLY the thread started to become less and less visted and popular.

Now I have wonderful results and I finally trade full-time... from time to time I write on my old journal, I share insights, sometimes some trades... or just trend picks of 10 pairs... and guess what? not even a "thank you" maybe one or two... some people visited it and left it immediatly... well... It cost me to understand that the reason that 90% of people fail in capital markets is because they want to build their own -or to have it for free with no effort!!!- expert advisory, to do nothing and to become rich... well... in their dreams! forex requires individual thoughts -as I read above-.

It is impressively sad that when someone shares truely valuable info -at least the info that i use to share fromtime to time in my journal is the info i use to setup my trades and i am being profitable- simply people dont want to read or something.. they just want the EA ready to run.

Some days ago a guy here shared an EA, and it was incredible that the following post were like this: "u have a backtest" "why i cant see the code"... etc... etc... WTF!!! nobody had said "thank you for sharing" what kind of crab is that? Not even a thank you somebody decerves for sharing an EA?

In my journal of course people even before saying: "hello" sometimes they just said: "what strategy u use? "what ur insight in GBPUSD?"... not even a: "good morning" or whatever?

i just got too disappointed to continue helping... from time to time i write in some threads, when somebody asks me about my trading technique i say: "I just sit down and draw fibs and trendlines until i feel confortable and i trade"... and of course because of this cant be scripted because my technique is based on essay-error, well they just lost interest. Only A FEW had asked me to mentor them... and 90% also lost interest...

I now defend the idea that 90% of people fail @ forex JUST BECAUSE OF THE LAZY ATTITUDE AND APPROACH THEY HAVE... trading forex is not like building a bridge or something... it is far simpler... but simpler DOES NOT MEAN EASIER!!! and here is why people fail... they dont want to do "their homework" if i may say...

i value a lot the attiuted and perseverence a person shows when asking me for mentoring or something... but i just lost interest in mentoring because i found lots of people that are so used to buy all what they need, that they also think they can buy "richness"... well... i say good luck... but if thay want easier things they should play lotto instead of learning forex... lotto is pure random.. forex has identifiable patterns... but it costs time to understand them...

yes, i have found great people here @ FF and i thank them publicly... but pls if there is newbie here, before asking for FULL DETAILS OF A STRATEGY.. FIRST LEARN TO SAY THANK YOU!!!

iiivb
  • #39
  • Apr 30, 2007 3:12pm Apr 30, 2007 3:12pm
Quote from Martin J. Pring in Investment Psychology Explained, Classic Strategies to Beat the Markets

I put in the proceeding paragraph for context.

Quote

Systems constructed from assumptions concerning basic economic
fundamentals are also subject to failure. For example, it
has been established that, in almost all cases, stock prices sooner
or later rally in the face of falling interest rates and begin to fall
sometime after rates have begun to rise. The lags fall into a fairly
predictable ränge most of the time but on occasion can be unduly
long. These exceptions can result in missed opportunities or devastating
losses. This problem occurred at the beginning of the
Depression. Interest rates peaked in the fall of 1929, yet the stock
market declined by about 75% over the next three years. In this
instance, the knowledge that rates lead equity prices could have
led to devastating losses. Timing is everything. In a similar vein,
short-term interest rates bottomed out in December 1976 at 4.74%
and almost quadrupled to a cyclical peak of 16.5% in March 1980.
Yet stock prices in the same period äs measured by the S&P
Composite were unchanged.



While the inverse relationship of interest rates to equity
prices works well äs an indicator of market direction most of the

time, these examples show that it is far from perfect and certainly

no Holy Grail. The reason for this is that once a certain
indicator or investment approach works for a while, word of its
money-making capabilities spreads like wildfire. Then, when everyone
is aware of its potential, it becomes factored into the price

and the relationship breaks down.
  • #40
  • Last Post: Apr 30, 2007 4:23pm Apr 30, 2007 4:23pm
Quoting semar
Now, regarding the thread subject, why pro players don't help begginers? Maybe they are tired of answering question that they allready did with 2 or 3 threds before; anoher reason is that by letting begginers find aswers themself, they force them to think and create thinks.
My oppionion
Exaaaaaaaaaactly. Another reason why consistent traders don't post much on forums is because they tire of the relentless banter that is on most forums. It's the same crap, different thread.

The traders that are successful use forums as marketing tools. Nothing more. Whether you realize it or not, there's a reason why successful traders post journals. It sure ain't for the chicks...
Mr. Trend
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