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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,761
  • Edited 2:52pm Mar 16, 2007 2:51pm | Edited 2:52pm
So it looks like its going to be bearish for the next couple days...just wanted some experts opinion, I have a long at 227.04 and its already down quite 40 or so pips...should I exit the trade now or should I remain in and hope for a retrace up to minimize the loss? Also if you can take a look at the thread I started http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21709

ANY HELP WOULD BE APPRECIATED!
fall down seven times, get up eight!
  • #1,762
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:05pm Mar 16, 2007 3:05pm
Quoting Adelb1985
So it looks like its going to be bearish for the next couple days...just wanted some experts opinion, I have a long at 227.04 and its already down quite 40 or so pips...should I exit the trade now or should I remain in and hope for a retrace up to minimize the loss? Also if you can take a look at the thread I started http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21709

ANY HELP WOULD BE APPRECIATED!
I'm not sure about you getting out of your long. As I decided to stop watching paint dry and look at the Daily chart I see that there is a tl to the upside that we are up against. Also MACD and other indicators show we may be moving up even temporarily. We've already started moving up on my 15 min and 5 min charts. Use your own judgement and of course, best of luck.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,763
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:14pm Mar 16, 2007 3:14pm
made some decent pips on these last few fib movements.... remember, when the market is ranging after a trending period, fibs and S&R are your friend.

http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p...edfyter/c4.gif
  • #1,764
  • Mar 16, 2007 4:12pm Mar 16, 2007 4:12pm
Quoting Adelb1985
So it looks like its going to be bearish for the next couple days...just wanted some experts opinion, I have a long at 227.04 and its already down quite 40 or so pips...should I exit the trade now or should I remain in and hope for a retrace up to minimize the loss? Also if you can take a look at the thread I started http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21709

ANY HELP WOULD BE APPRECIATED!
I won't tell you what to do Adelb, however the G/J can be a monster if your in the wrong way. Don't let emotion keep you in the trade. If your system says go long, than keep your long. If your technicals have changed and are now looking bearish, either kill your position or shut your account off with a stop in place. Don't let the fear of losing a trade keep you in a bad one.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #1,765
  • Mar 17, 2007 1:37pm Mar 17, 2007 1:37pm
Bias is short but may take a while to build up steam.
  • #1,766
  • Mar 17, 2007 9:41pm Mar 17, 2007 9:41pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
That is not necessary. I just wanted to give some ideas in here to supplement what you are doing. I am going to add this pair to my daily analysis on my website since so many are interested.

I enjoy doing the analysis and who knows I might start trading it. Many are doing well with the EURJPY cross also.

Keep up the nice thread here. I am learning too.

DRT
Hi DownRiverTrader,

I'd like to see your website that post DRT daily analysis.
Can you tell me the website address? Thanks.
  • #1,767
  • Edited 10:07pm Mar 17, 2007 9:50pm | Edited 10:07pm
first of all let me express my gratitude for this thread. now I only trade this pair since it has the most volatility. I have followed about the last half of this thread and man how this thread is HOT. I have to start worshipping the guy who started this.

Okay, now the question.
Chinese Central Bank just raised the interest rate by 0.27%. What do you guys think will happen to this currency pair? Do you think yen will strengthen?

And this is gonna be the fourth in 12 months. Do you guys have any information about what the effects were to this pair for the previous three times rate hike?
  • #1,768
  • Mar 17, 2007 11:04pm Mar 17, 2007 11:04pm
We will see more falling of the yen back to somewhere 235 as carry trades are still very attractive for investors as US and China economy show signs of slowing. We won't see more unwinding of carry trades in the coming weeks.

I suggest to hold long position on this pair.
  • #1,769
  • Mar 17, 2007 11:09pm Mar 17, 2007 11:09pm
Quoting Adelb1985
So it looks like its going to be bearish for the next couple days...just wanted some experts opinion, I have a long at 227.04 and its already down quite 40 or so pips...should I exit the trade now or should I remain in and hope for a retrace up to minimize the loss? Also if you can take a look at the thread I started http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21709

ANY HELP WOULD BE APPRECIATED!
Hi Adelb...we are in the same boat...the only different is, mine already -80 pips...as for me, i will keep it ON as i believed that the trend will be bullish in this near time...

goodluck pal...
  • #1,770
  • Mar 17, 2007 11:15pm Mar 17, 2007 11:15pm
Quoting trale
We will see more falling of the yen back to somewhere 235 as carry trades are still very attractive for investors as US and China economy show signs of slowing. We won't see more unwinding of carry trades in the coming weeks.

I suggest to hold long position on this pair.
And how did you come to these conclusions?
  • #1,771
  • Mar 17, 2007 11:42pm Mar 17, 2007 11:42pm
Quoting bono79
Hi Adelb...we are in the same boat...the only different is, mine already -80 pips...as for me, i will keep it ON as i believed that the trend will be bullish in this near time...

goodluck pal...

The 30 min chart shows that it will be bullish at least to cover up the -80 pips.

Let us watch
  • #1,772
  • Mar 18, 2007 12:28am Mar 18, 2007 12:28am
yeah, hope so...NO PAIN, NO GAIN...
  • #1,773
  • Mar 18, 2007 2:59am Mar 18, 2007 2:59am

hallo alll...
my first post on this thread...hope helping.....
GBP/JPY is bullish for 3 consecutive day....
so i aware of any bearish signal.....
i think this week will be start with bearish trend and will continue to be sideway at the end of week....
just an opinion anyway...the rest is debate....

To The Sea My Friend....oh we already on the sea!!!!
  • #1,774
  • Mar 18, 2007 11:31am Mar 18, 2007 11:31am
I'm locked in at +80 off that 1hr trend line from last week. I am at 0 risk and will be looking to risk another 2% trade if an opportunity arises.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #1,775
  • Mar 18, 2007 12:08pm Mar 18, 2007 12:08pm
Quoting Vensik
I'm locked in at +80 off that 1hr trend line from last week. I am at 0 risk and will be looking to risk another 2% trade if an opportunity arises.
Which one hour trendline are you referring to? are you long or short? Do you think were its going to be bearish or bullish this coming week?
fall down seven times, get up eight!
  • #1,776
  • Mar 18, 2007 12:41pm Mar 18, 2007 12:41pm
Quoting Adelb1985
Which one hour trendline are you referring to? are you long or short? Do you think were its going to be bearish or bullish this coming week?
Refering to the picture I posted in #1741

Here it is again. My view is a break of this consolidation to the downside.

http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/322...y031607qp6.jpg



I was kind of referencing my last couple of posts. Granted they have been posted across the last 2 pages. Which is great, keep the discussion going.

*edit- This picture was in the middle of a powerpoint I was building for the daily studies I send out. Notice what happened the last 3 times the MACD crossed over, that + the trend line + the pattern all came together here for a nice entry. Just to explain the circles at the bottom a little better.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #1,777
  • Mar 18, 2007 12:46pm Mar 18, 2007 12:46pm
Quoting Adelb1985
Which one hour trendline are you referring to? are you long or short? Do you think were its going to be bearish or bullish this coming week?
I'm sure his last post was stalled while doing short...unless his bagged green pips from long were reduced by the reversal and didn't lock the profit...

may the force be with us...
  • #1,778
  • Mar 18, 2007 2:09pm Mar 18, 2007 2:09pm
i was with a short since friday. and my broker (is one that never close) is already showing a drop of 100pips. its at 225.80 atm =))))
  • #1,779
  • Mar 18, 2007 2:21pm Mar 18, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting hazz
i was with a short since friday. and my broker (is one that never close) is already showing a drop of 100pips. its at 225.80 atm =))))

how is this possible with the market closed??
you know of an online website that will show these prices.

keep in mind the market will tend to close that gap sometime within the first few hours after the open.

so the first sign of a reverse after the open i would close it or take a hedge and look to reenter if the downtrend continues once the gap is closed.
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #1,780
  • Mar 18, 2007 2:53pm Mar 18, 2007 2:53pm
Quoting Monk
how is this possible with the market closed??
you know of an online website that will show these prices.

keep in mind the market will tend to close that gap sometime within the first few hours after the open.

so the first sign of a reverse after the open i would close it or take a hedge and look to reenter if the downtrend continues once the gap is closed.

its possible cuz im using a broker that got dealing desk. why it droped 100 pips already i dont know. if anyone know plz tell me, anyway im wining =)
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