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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #152,941
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:44pm Jan 14, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting mktjong
I think it's more like position building for short .. they are trying to let all the buy orders dissapear first then big drop is coming ..
  • #152,942
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:47pm Jan 14, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting mirex
keep an open mine it's making a new low, 99.999999% on this
i do not disagree, i am talking about what is happening now. i called heavy supply 140 top + sub 130 tgt on monday fyi
.

btw...who are you? you have not introduced yourself to the thread. ASL pls
  • #152,943
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:50pm Jan 14, 2009 1:50pm
Quoting Sanook
Using a chart Malcolm posted, could any VSA user please explain what they would have done on the two bars I have indicated with black vertical lines. Wide spread bar closing on its highs, followed by no supply.

I still can't get my head around these situations, in the sense of what would keep you out of these trades. Is it as simple as don't trade against the trend?

If that is the case, when do you start going long? Where from a VSA point of view is the turning point?

Also, most of what I've read regarding VSA has been on other forums, but...


look for reaction to bar ..... that is the key .

on bottom like the ones you were potentially picking on the 60 min drill down to a 15 0r 10 min chart and look for basing .... look for testing of the lows of the 60 min bar .

If you go long put stop 10 pip under 60 min
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #152,944
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:51pm Jan 14, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i do not disagree, i am talking about what is happening now. i called heavy supply 140 top + sub 130 tgt on monday fyi
.

btw...who are you? you have not introduced yourself to the thread. ASL pls

well, for starter, i blew 2 account
learned my lesson good. just stumbled upon this site a few weeks ago and been reading and learning everything you guys said. your post are awesome and many thanks. I'm still learning alot. I've been up since yesterday morning and seem like today's price action has taught me the most.

remember during the shake out at 1.60 euro? i was there and died...i didnt know much but from what happen yesterday and today, this is what the market is trying to do, just opposite of it...

you are right, it is shaking out, but it's not done yet, it need to make a new low. just like how gbpusd created a new high before it went down the toilet
  • #152,945
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:51pm Jan 14, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting mirex
you think professionals build shorts on the lows? shorts that matter are built on rallies or at least some retracements when idiotmoney begins to buy and not when the move is partial over

from a 60m perspective we have pretty low supply near support which isn't indicative for a break of the lows NOW. lower tf's are pretty much whipsaw.

would be nice to hear an analysis instead of assumtpions

i currently just need to know that i have to sit on my hands in this period
  • #152,946
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:53pm Jan 14, 2009 1:53pm
here is what i am 99% sure will happen, e/g spike up causing g/j and g/u to go down the toilet
  • #152,947
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:54pm Jan 14, 2009 1:54pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i do not disagree, i am talking about what is happening now. i called heavy supply 140 top + sub 130 tgt on monday fyi
.

btw...who are you? you have not introduced yourself to the thread. ASL pls
i am the Janitor .... nice to meet all of you

lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #152,948
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:55pm Jan 14, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting mirex
here is what i am 99% sure will happen, e/g spike up causing g/j and g/u to go down the toilet
based on WHAT?

so then all in including house keys and wife
  • #152,949
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:55pm Jan 14, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i do not disagree, i am talking about what is happening now. i called heavy supply 140 top + sub 130 tgt on monday fyi
.

btw...who are you? you have not introduced yourself to the thread. ASL pls

I am with Dr G on this one ..

there seems to be basing going on in GU. If there is then GJ stand no chance of heading lower

also note the indexes TANKAGE today and gj could not even get a new low hardly ...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #152,950
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:56pm Jan 14, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
you think professionals build shorts on the lows? shorts that matter are built on rallies or at least some retracements when idiotmoney begins to buy and not when the move is partial over

from a 60m perspective we have pretty low supply near support which isn't indicative for a break of the lows NOW. lower tf's are pretty much whipsaw.

would be nice to hear an analysis instead of assumtpions
not unless the market is trying to get to the bottom and spike up...

look at it this way, gbp index is up, we know that, smart money knows that. so everyone wants to get in there. if you are smart money and can move the market, would you rather sit at this level, or sit at the "new" low, and go up with the trend from there?
  • #152,951
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:58pm Jan 14, 2009 1:58pm
e/g will go up, e/j will go down, causing g/j and g/u to go down the toilet. new low for both e/j and g/j and g/u.

last night action was "half" of the game.

this is the other half.
  • #152,952
  • Jan 14, 2009 1:59pm Jan 14, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting malcolmb14
i am the Janitor .... nice to meet all of you

lol
  • #152,953
  • Jan 14, 2009 2:02pm Jan 14, 2009 2:02pm
Quoting mirex
not unless the market is trying to get to the bottom and spike up...

look at it this way, gbp index is up, we know that, smart money knows that. so everyone wants to get in there. if you are smart money and can move the market, would you rather sit at this level, or sit at the "new" low, and go up with the trend from there?
the logic in bottoms is this:

Pros will buy off what they think is good value (aka 129)
then after a 100-200 pip up run they will withdraw ...
The retail guys and other pros who do not know what they are doing will be shorting the rallies still ( I do this but i am a day trader)

The idea is that the pros want to dry up all of the supply , so that prices can be moved higher.

This is what both Dr G and i saw when we kept testing 130 before ride to 140 .

There was a handful of traders in here calling a bottom .... we were 2 of them

VSA is a very powerful tool if you understand what you are seeing in the charts.

On bottoms i like to see several tests .. as we saw though the month of December .... last night / today was the first test .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #152,954
  • Jan 14, 2009 2:03pm Jan 14, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting mirex
e/g will go up, e/j will go down, causing g/j and g/u to go down the toilet. new low for both e/j and g/j and g/u.

last night action was "half" of the game.

this is the other half.
In an invidual that advice you (it mark by 'V')...Try to understand that meaning first before making any post....unless you post with some of you chart/some technical analysis which is more meaningful to debt.....
  • #152,955
  • Jan 14, 2009 2:03pm Jan 14, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting mirex
e/g will go up, e/j will go down, causing g/j and g/u to go down the toilet. new low for both e/j and g/j and g/u.

last night action was "half" of the game.

this is the other half.
Whilst I will not agree or disagree with this, mainly because I do not know anything 100%, I would say the absolute caning of 129 today by the longs cannot simply be attributed to a few long punters.

We had already gone lower and it seemed obvious that the last low would be hit, but from 129 any gap in volume was not being explioted by shorts. In fact, as soon as the price fell, there were long orders snapping it up.

IMO, we're being played and buying is taking place.
  • #152,956
  • Jan 14, 2009 2:04pm Jan 14, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting malcolmb14
the logic in bottoms is this:

Pros will buy off what they think is good value (aka 129)
then after a 100-200 pip up run they will withdraw ...
The retail guys and other pros who do not know what they are doing will be shorting the rallies still ( I do this but i am a day trader)

The idea is that the pros want to dry up all of the supply , so that prices can be moved higher.

This is what both Dr G and i saw when we kept testing 130 before ride to 140 .

There was a ahdnful of traders in here calling a bottom .... we were 2 of them

VSA...

yes i read a little bit about your VSA stuff. Need more timeto digest it and maybe i can afford it now after this

look back at when g/u went to 2180 before the big fall.... now turn that around and you will see this happening now
  • #152,957
  • Jan 14, 2009 2:06pm Jan 14, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting Sanook
Using a chart Malcolm posted, could any VSA user please explain what they would have done on the two bars I have indicated with black vertical lines. Wide spread bar closing on its highs, followed by no supply.

I still can't get my head around these situations, in the sense of what would keep you out of these trades. Is it as simple as don't trade against the trend?

If that is the case, when do you start going long? Where from a VSA point of view is the turning point?

Also, most of what I've read regarding VSA has been on other forums, but...

Like malcolm said action reaction, also they must support somewhat or its a free fall against their design.
What you would be looking for is what u see at the bottom reversal EXHAUSTION, Someone takes the other side, Market makers in volatile times, and redistributes in quiet times distribution phase. They see all orders plus the ones the craft for clients, They know the order flow and how much and when to step in
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #152,958
  • Jan 14, 2009 2:06pm Jan 14, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Gann is just an indicator ....it is not stopping GBP from doing anything ... the price of GBP will dtermine what GANN does as it is lagging... ALL indiactors are as they are a factor of price. Price will happen before the indicator is calculated. I use rsi or rsx and they are both lagging. Price action and volume are the only ' real time ' indicators

look to gbp futures and DX for further moves on gbpusd. The DX today has a doji on high volume = net sellers of USD after a no demand bar yesterday

GBP futures have inside bar forming on daily after...

i know you are a very experienced trader and i have learned ALOT from you.

gbpusd will go up, like you said, but smart money see and KNOWS what you are saying and they want it up to, but they want new low first so they can position themself.

if you are smart money, and you see money flowing into GBP, would you jump in it? or would you take it down first so you position yourself better?

don't be silly and get on the bus, it's going to make a new low, then you can buy at a much better price

i had this typed up a bit ago but didnt want to jinks myself, hehe

i take donations in form of starbucks, i need it, been up since yesterday morning >< lol
  • #152,959
  • Jan 14, 2009 2:11pm Jan 14, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting mirex
i know you are a very experienced trader and i have learned ALOT from you.

gbpusd will go up, like you said, but smart money see and KNOWS what you are saying and they want it up to, but they want new low first so they can position themself.

if you are smart money, and you see money flowing into GBP, would you jump in it? or would you take it down first so you position yourself better?

don't be silly and get on the bus, it's going to make a new low, then you can buy at a much better price

i had this typed up a bit ago but didnt...
sorry, but my headache is getting worse from those assumptions based on....on what? at least based on turning the chart upside down

try to understand the whole supply & demand / va / smart money stuff if you are interested in, but you should re-read the books a few times and watch the principles appearing in front of your face on the live edge a while

i might be wrong, but i am posting an analysis, so should you.
  • #152,960
  • Jan 14, 2009 2:12pm Jan 14, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I am with Dr G on this one ..

there seems to be basing going on in GU. If there is then GJ stand no chance of heading lower

also note the indexes TANKAGE today and gj could not even get a new low hardly ...
It's coming down ..
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