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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #1,161
  • Jan 12, 2009 5:13am Jan 12, 2009 5:13am
Quoting saeidhidari
usd chf
Good chart bro..
  • #1,162
  • Jan 12, 2009 7:32am Jan 12, 2009 7:32am
Quoting Blue bottle
Good chart bro..
tnx
  • #1,163
  • Jan 12, 2009 1:17pm Jan 12, 2009 1:17pm
Quoting saeidhidari
usd chf
good to see you back bro.

happy new year everyone.
  • #1,164
  • Jan 12, 2009 1:35pm Jan 12, 2009 1:35pm
Euro broke the 1.33 support level this morning by 20 pips. This provides a 5th wave down count, and invalidates some bullish counts looking to revisit 1.47 soon. A double 3 could be the alternative, either way we should expect a move to test 1.31 and 1.29 levels if not lower.

Gold also broke the 828 support level, and oil has been moving close to a new low ahead of the others around 37.50. Confirmation is lagging with Swissy and Cable, but it should arrive in time.

The driver is falling equities. Fear trumps interest rate differentials and everything else. Watch the VIX move off its resting spot as stocks fall. This means another wave of deleveraging and risk aversion should pick up, driving USD higher and commodities lower.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,165
  • Jan 12, 2009 3:39pm Jan 12, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting pkimnyc
good to see you back bro.

happy new year everyone.
Tnx
  • #1,166
  • Jan 12, 2009 6:23pm Jan 12, 2009 6:23pm
My usdchf chart..

Can we count wave 5 as expanding triangle?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,167
  • Jan 12, 2009 8:00pm Jan 12, 2009 8:00pm
FXoffshore,

you should reconsider your EURUSD count based on the "bigger" picture.

Sixer

http://www.boersentrendonline.de/upl...RUSD-01-12.gif
  • #1,168
  • Edited 8:35pm Jan 12, 2009 8:24pm | Edited 8:35pm
I subscribe, so I saw that chart. Jim Martens is excellent. Better is the monthly chart from Dec 11th before he changed from bear to bull.

I disagree with him right now only on the short term. He sees Euro going back to 1.60 in 5 waves and I see it going below 1.20 based on the wave count.

Friday he pronounced his certainty that Euro would open higher and make a sharp move higher in wave 3. Today he is having to re-think that count as it has been invalidated by the drop below 1.3310 (wave 4 cannot enter price range of wave 1). Same with Jaime Saettele, they both changed abruptly on Dec 16 when Euro retraced high. I have not sat on the fence or changed.

Jim/Jamie have their reasons, but I think if they drilled down to look carefully at some of the sub-waves, they would be more open to 5 waves down.

I would be interested in what you see as bullish with Euro count right now, with 5 waves down? Do you have a chart to discuss?

The chart below is from my blog: http://vault.bz/2008/11/historic-charts/

http://vault.bz/up/chart/2008/11/eur...72-585x496.gif


Quote
The extent of the decline from above 1.6000 highlights the three-wave advance from 2001. Three-wave movements are corrective so the euro could remain under pressure for some time as a test of the low .80s is possible. - Jim Martens

Attached Image

  • #1,169
  • Jan 12, 2009 8:37pm Jan 12, 2009 8:37pm
Quoting FXoffshore
I subscribe, so I saw that chart. Jim Martens is excellent. Better is the monthly chart from Dec 11th before he changed from bear to bull.

I disagree with him right now only on the short term. He sees Euro going back to 1.60 in 5 waves and I see it going below 1.20 based on the wave count.

Friday he pronounced his certainty that Euro would open higher and make a sharp move higher in wave 3. Today he is having to re-think that count as it has been invalidated by the drop below 1.3310 (wave 4 cannot enter price range of wave 1). Same with Jaime...
fxshore,

may i ask what your view is on geppy from the low of dec 30 last year?
i counted 5 waves up then 3 waves down, but looks like the low of dec/30 may be taken out soon.
thanks in advance.
  • #1,170
  • Edited 9:10pm Jan 12, 2009 8:59pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting pkimnyc
fxshore,

may i ask what your view is on geppy from the low of dec 30 last year?
i counted 5 waves up then 3 waves down, but looks like the low of dec/30 may be taken out soon.
thanks in advance.
I have not traded Gbp/Jpy for some time, it is a rocket. When I traded it, I followed 3 charts, most important was Usd/Jpy - it moves price the most, then Gbp/Usd, and finally the synthetic Gbp/Jpy.

I had to know what was going on with Usd/Jpy first, which right now should be falling hard with equities (S&P 500) and inverse to VIX; about to start wave 3 of 3 down. I count a 1,2 i,ii down, and falling in iii.

Cable has had a corrective run, but it must be ready for a fall again. When the are both falling at the same time then it is a rocket.

If you are long, get out now. or short more than you are long to more than hedge (1:2), or step aside and enter on the next pullback. It may be due for a small 3 wave corection before going vertical.
  • #1,171
  • Jan 12, 2009 9:06pm Jan 12, 2009 9:06pm
Quoting FXoffshore
I have not traded Gbp/Jpy for some time, it is a rocket. When I traded it, I followed 3 charts, most important was Usd/Jpy - it moves price the most, then Gbp/Usd, and finally the synthetic Gbp/Jpy.

I had to know what was going on with Usd/Jpy first, which right now should be falling hard with equities (S&P 500) and inverse to VIX; about to start wave 3 of 3 down. Cable has had a corrective run, but it must be ready for a fall again. When the are both falling at the same time then it is a rocket.

If you are long, get out now.
thank you.
  • #1,172
  • Jan 13, 2009 4:18am Jan 13, 2009 4:18am
fxoffshore I am with you on your EURUSD wavecount. I see on the 4h though we are going into wave 2 of C soon before we go down deeper..
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #1,173
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:21am Jan 13, 2009 9:21am
UsdCad 15mins chart.
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  • #1,174
  • Jan 13, 2009 12:48pm Jan 13, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting Blue bottle
UsdCad 15mins chart.

USD CAD
Perhaps end wave 3
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  • #1,175
  • Jan 13, 2009 12:53pm Jan 13, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting saeidhidari
nzd usd

nzd usd
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  • #1,176
  • Jan 13, 2009 1:20pm Jan 13, 2009 1:20pm
INDEX DOLLAR
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  • #1,177
  • Jan 13, 2009 1:27pm Jan 13, 2009 1:27pm
EUR USD H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,178
  • Jan 13, 2009 1:48pm Jan 13, 2009 1:48pm
As I posted on EURUSD thread:

Here is another US$ index chart showing it hit today the 61.8% retracement at 2 time retracments for today and tomorrow. I am thinking though that the big fib cluster above at 86.00 area is where a pullback or reversal is more likely though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,179
  • Edited 4:42pm Jan 13, 2009 4:29pm | Edited 4:42pm
Quoting saeidhidari
EUR USD H1
When Euro moves another 55 pips lower, that wave 4 count is invalidated because 4 enters the price territory of 1 at 1.3085 or lower.

Same goes for synthetic DX index, it reached as high as 84.45, and invalidates wave.4 possiblity by breaking 84.70 - only 25 pips away.

Consider a 5 wave down count, as the first leg of impulse pattern, or A of a zig zag.
  • #1,180
  • Jan 13, 2009 4:38pm Jan 13, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting Sixer
FXoffshore, you should reconsider your EURUSD count based on the "bigger" picture. Sixer
Hi Sixer, did you notice EWI recanted the "Euro going higher" belief today, and changed to 5 waves down?
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