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Slingshot-30 Min. PA System

  • #201
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:23am Jan 13, 2009 9:23am
Quoting billbss
I've tested this system with two different EAs that I believe to be properly programmed.
Over the last year, each pair looses around 5,000 pips.

I do not believe it is a profitable method.

I consider it another system that looked good at first blush and didn't pan out.

I personally, don't spend time trying to make a system work with filters and indicators, that isn't sound to begin with.

I think the time is better spent working on a system that shows more potential.

If anyone wants to keep at it, feel free and I wish you success.

Does that include manually trading this system?
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #202
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:24am Jan 13, 2009 9:24am
Quoting Rastaman
Just go to youtube and search for
SlingShot 30M 100% Mechanical Scalping Forex System Part 1

I think anyone who posts a link will get it in the neck from the powers that be.
Google that. You can go directly to his website and download the videos to watch over, and over, and over... or not.

Carl
  • #203
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:26am Jan 13, 2009 9:26am
Quoting billbss
I've tested this system with two different EAs that I believe to be properly programmed.
Over the last year, each pair looses around 5,000 pips.

I do not believe it is a profitable method.

I consider it another system that looked good at first blush and didn't pan out.

I personally, don't spend time trying to make a system work with filters and indicators, that isn't sound to begin with.

I think the time is better spent working on a system that shows more potential.

If anyone wants to keep at it, feel free and I wish you success.
I agree to an extent, but I think adding one filter and one indicator with some adjusted s/l's is really not taking this thing too far, and from waht I have shown over the past 2 days is pretty good you have to admit.

remember taht I told you originally that it would not work, I am glad you have validated my original conclusion...now I am saying that I have something that looks promising..maybe, with a little effort, that will become self eveident to you as well.

And beyond this filter and adjusting s/l's, i to am not going to go any farther, but to not test a hypothesis will ultimately keep us right where we are at with our trading.
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #204
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:26am Jan 13, 2009 9:26am
Quoting Rastaman
Does that include manually trading this system?
Judging from past history, I think it will lose money if it's manually traded or traded with an EA.
  • #205
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:27am Jan 13, 2009 9:27am
Quoting Rastaman
Does that include manually trading this system?
I wouldn't think that back test to be off by that much...i came to the same conclusion in one of my first posts in this thread that it would not work as it currently is...manual trading or EA trading.
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #206
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:31am Jan 13, 2009 9:31am
Very good of you guys to lay the cards down.

The quest continues.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #207
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:43am Jan 13, 2009 9:43am
The system looks good as I see it. Here's what I think needs work:

 

  1. This seems like a bull/bear trap type system. Those systems work best after long candles. So instead of setting the high/low minimum to 15 pips, make it open/close range of 100 pips. Or something larger than normal for that chart.
  2. Bull/Bear traps are counter-trend systems. They are not looking for a trend reversal, they are looking for a small retracement. That being said, I suggest looking for few pips, no more than 10 because this is against the trend.
  3. What is the overall trend? Determining the strength of the trend also helps best when trying to gauge how strong the retracements are going to be.

  • #208
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:53am Jan 13, 2009 9:53am
This sounds like the infamous TRO technique, except that Avery uses the 1 hr TF instead on 30m TF. And if I remember, for it to be successful, you need very low spreads for it to be profitable. And still then, it's about 70% wins vs losses. Odds are not too bad.... Part of the issue is trading against the 1 hr candle which is verbotten in the TRO system. Not saying this is bad, but maybe a different tf is in order here.
  • #209
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:03am Jan 13, 2009 10:03am
I added my comments at the end of your statements below.....

This seems like a bull/bear trap type system. Those systems work best after long candles. So instead of setting the high/low minimum to 15 pips, make it open/close range of 100 pips. Or something larger than normal for that chart. Interesting idea...probably a good one, but maybe we can be successfull without waiting for those long candles

Bull/Bear traps are counter-trend systems. They are not looking for a trend reversal, they are looking for a small retracement. That being said, I suggest looking for few pips, no more than 10 because this is against the trend. I'm not sure about this, because i am see the s/l for gbpusd to be 40-45 pips with eurusd and usdjpy to be about 30-35 pips....i'd rather end up with 2 pips while still going after the big runs, but this as well could be optimized in an EA

What is the overall trend? Determining the strength of the trend also helps best when trying to gauge how strong the retracements are going to be. Exactly......I have put up a good filter a few pages back that I see determines trade direction momentum. yesterday gave os 11 0f 11 wins, and today min of 3 losses, max of 4, but the 4th is questionable because it would not have hit either the 40 -45 pip stop loss for gbpusd and is still currently open. we would have won around 10 if my recolection is correct, using the MACD filter.....

I also sugest not just closing the trade at the close of the first bar if it is not in profit...either let it hit our s/l or close in a bar in profit. Maybe after the close of the 1st bar, the s.l can be adjusted or something, but that can happen later if we want it to.
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #210
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:06am Jan 13, 2009 10:06am
The gbpusd trade I eluded to earlier that maybe would have hit our s/l....here is the results...

If we would have had a s/l of 40-45 pips for gbpusd (after all it is the hourly and M30 charts), the s/l would not have been hit and after the close of the recent bar would have ended in profit......

another win the way that I see it

Yesterday 11 for 11, today 10 for 14

We also curretnly have a long usdjpy open from the M30 chart set to close if in profit at 16:30 GMT
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #211
  • Edited 11:06am Jan 13, 2009 10:24am | Edited 11:06am
In your testing, did you let it take every single trade signal, 24 hours a day, or did you restrict the trading hours? It can make a big difference.

I've programmed this system. I didn't use MT4, I just wrote my own raw program because I don't trust MT4. I'm working with a little more than 3 months of 1-min data for the EUR/USD. I am still working on my program, working out some bugs...but so far, it seems to be profitable during certain market sessions.

Here are some results from 1-minute data for EUR/USD going back to 10/06/2008. They might not be correct, but here's what I got so far.

GMT
10:00 to 11:00 ---> -13 pips
11:00 to 12:00 ---> 123 pips
12:00 to 13:00 ---> 1 pip
13:00 to 14:00 ---> 371 pips
14:00 to 15:00 ---> 119 pips
15:00 to 16:00 ---> -90 pips

As you can see, if you cut out the first and last hour in this group...

11:00 to 15:00 ---> 614 pips

This means, for example, if you restrict the trading time to just between 13:00 and 14:00 (GMT), it produced 491 pips over the past 3-months. Again, these results might not be correct because I'm still working on my program.

I think it's very important to use restricted trading hours when you do back testing. When I finally start using a system, I will be trading it manually. I will not be using an automatic trading program. Therefore, I must only look at the back testing results for the hours that I can be at the computer to trade. It doesn't make sense to look at historical results for trades that I would never have a chance to make because I wouldn't be at the computer at those times.

Maybe someone could help me check if my program is working properly. I could select some random trades that my program generates and you could check them against you manual back testing.

Quoting billbss
I've tested this system with two different EAs that I believe to be properly programmed.
Over the last year, each pair looses around 5,000 pips.

I do not believe it is a profitable method.

I consider it another system that looked good at first blush and didn't pan out.

I personally, don't spend time trying to make a system work with filters and indicators, that isn't sound to begin with.

I think the time is better spent working on a system that shows more potential.

If anyone wants to keep at it, feel free and I wish you success....
  • #212
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:45am Jan 13, 2009 10:45am
Quoting mathematician
In your testing, did you let it take every single trade signal, 24 hours a day, or did you restrict the trading hours? It can make a big difference.

I've programmed this system. I didn't use MT4, I just wrote my own raw program because I don't trust MT4. I'm working with a little more than 3 months of 1-min data for the EUR/USD. I am still working on my program, working out some bugs...but so far, it seems to be profitable during certain market sessions.

Here are some results from 1-minute data for EUR/USD going back to 10/06/2008. They might...
Yes...the last 3 months were quite profitable but don't nearly make up for the amount of money you would have lost the 6 months prior to that...I think the guy that threw this together just saw this in the short term, got excited and sent it out...but in reality, prior to that it really bit the big one.....
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #213
  • Jan 13, 2009 11:03am Jan 13, 2009 11:03am
Update....using the filter, just closed a nice gbpusd trade making our win/loss ratio today of 11 for 15

If we can't find a way to make an 11 for 11 and an 11 for 15 profitable, then we really should just drop this and move on.
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #214
  • Jan 13, 2009 12:07pm Jan 13, 2009 12:07pm
just took two more small wins from eurusd...one from H1 and the other from M30. Really too small for me, but yoiu never know when the big one will appear....

Using the filter gives us 13 for 17 today...not too bad....
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #215
  • Jan 13, 2009 12:08pm Jan 13, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting damonl
Yes...the last 3 months were quite profitable but don't nearly make up for the amount of money you would have lost the 6 months prior to that...I think the guy that threw this together just saw this in the short term, got excited and sent it out...but in reality, prior to that it really bit the big one.....
Damn, I guess I should get some more data.
  • #216
  • Jan 13, 2009 12:42pm Jan 13, 2009 12:42pm
Quote
This seems like a bull/bear trap type system. Those systems work best after long candles. So instead of setting the high/low minimum to 15 pips, make it open/close range of 100 pips. Or something larger than normal for that chart.
Bull/Bear traps are counter-trend systems. They are not looking for a trend reversal, they are looking for a small retracement. That being said, I suggest looking for few pips, no more than 10 because this is against the trend.
What is the overall trend? Determining the strength of the trend also helps best when trying...
I noticed while doing visual back test that if you wait for a new bar to advance in the same direction as setup bar then move back and retest the close of set bar then make your trade in same direction as setup bar you have a better chance of a successful trade. This would then be trading with the current trend instead of against it.

Can not come up with a set of rules that have a high % of winner yet, but I'm still working on it.
  • #217
  • Jan 13, 2009 1:32pm Jan 13, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting Abnormalone
I noticed while doing visual back test that if you wait for a new bar to advance in the same direction as setup bar then move back and retest the close of set bar then make your trade in same direction as setup bar you have a better chance of a successful trade. This would then be trading with the current trend instead of against it.

Can not come up with a set of rules that have a high % of winner yet, but I'm still working on it.
In theory this would make sense...have to see what you can come up with.....

We just had 2 more eurusd trades trigger...1 for a win and 1 for a loss so that puts us at 14 for 18 today I believe
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #218
  • Jan 13, 2009 1:44pm Jan 13, 2009 1:44pm
TimeFreedom,

First of all, thanks for all your work
and the great EAs.

I am testing your 04 with TP5, yet some trades close at higher pips.
Can you explain?

Can I run your EA on a same platform with another EA?
Do I have to change the magic # for each pair I trade?

Thanks again

Regards,

Ploto2
  • #219
  • Jan 13, 2009 2:07pm Jan 13, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting Pluto2
TimeFreedom,

First of all, thanks for all your work
and the great EAs.

I am testing your 04 with TP5, yet some trades close at higher pips.
Can you explain?

Can I run your EA on a same platform with another EA?
Do I have to change the magic # for each pair I trade?

Thanks again

Regards,

Ploto2

You might not want to put it on a live account.
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #220
  • Jan 13, 2009 2:11pm Jan 13, 2009 2:11pm
just closed a usdjpy trade and a gbpusd trade both in profit using the filter...

That puts us 16 for 20 for the day so far. That is probably it for the day since it is 20:00 GMT by my book.

So, using the filter 11 for 11 yesterday and 16 for 20 for today...somthing I think that is worth persuing.....

What do you think Time Freedom? Care to keep going with it?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
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