EUR/AUD

Jade,

Very good point about the aussie being a toy soldier. In fact, i have come to watch the aud/usd way more than eur/aud trying to anticipate a drop (even a modest one) in aud/usd which will cause a massive spike in eur/aud. Am used to be most comfortable when aud/usd was hovering around 0.60 coz then you'd know almost for the fact that Aussie government intervenes trying to prop up the aussie against the USD thus causing a sizeable retracement in eur/aud.

Quiet on this pair at present, although the highs have come off again. Will it retest the highs above 2.0500 again ? Good entry point short if that happens.

I'm at a loss over the charts posted above though ? Reminds me of those 1970's console games.

What a great start to my trading year. This pair fell to almost the 1.9600 mark, monstrous drop. Expect resistance at around 1.9855. If that doesn't hold look to 1.9385.....

Yes, nice to see the Aussie finally putting up a fight. Had to give GBP/AUD a miss for a few weeks and trade EUR/AUD instead. Pound has been hammered every which way. About time the EUR got a smack. Just playing the gap at the moment and will see what happens once it has closed. Looking good so far.

I'm starting to look at this pair very carefully. on a hour chart you can have several hundred pips easy.

Groovy, are you still in this one ? Amazing falls in last few days....

Wow, what volatility on this pair. Precipitous fall to 1.9000 was better than expected. This has been a long term trade, opened Dec 9th . Took me to the very limit of margin, 27% . Now I just have to watch my smugness after locking in profits.

Can see this falling further and looking for potential signs of range. With its October rise to levels unseen for years there were no common support/resistance patterns. I gain the impression a huge number of traders mostly use short term charts, so it takes a while before we start to see the support/resistances coming up with any regularity, and they're easily trashed.

Be interested to hear other opinions on this.

Currently i believe price is at the support area 18884*<>18700 .. there is more to come once market breaks it .. well at least to me .. good luck

Hmmm.... fancy 1.8950 area as support. Its showed up before and price paused there on 4 hour chart, 1 hour chart. Its a major resistance on longer term charts too. As I'm penning this its pushing lower so just watching my positions closely.

Interesting to consider this pair rising above 1.8000 was unusual before Oct '08

Still too early to see where this will end up ranging.

FX OPTIONS: EUR/AUD 1.8650 Strike Interest, 13-Day Expiry London, January 6. We have been told that a 13-day 1.8650 strike traded at 24.0 pct in Asia today. EUR/AUD was last at 1.8650 on November 10. 3-mth ATMF vol reportedly traded at 21.5 pct in Asia today.

I don't know whether this tidbit is helpful to you or not.

GT

to break or not to break .. that is the question .. @18728* area

Bounced off 1.8600 so lowered stops. Will it pop resistance at around 1.8800

Anyone else shorted this from its highs. Be interested to hear your strategy.

Wow.....bad new for Australia -12% Building Approvals.

any thoughts.

price approaching R1

just my view

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You could not ask for better than the attached chart......5 bounces off a trend line.....now all I need to do is stay awake for 24 hours per day.

Billser

has anyone been watching this pair today seems pretty interesting...looks like she got toppy tonight into the 2.0050 area possibly a double top from recent move up...shes also sitting right in the middle of the channel as you can see on the chart, time on chart is h2

if AUD gets stronger this pair should do some serious movement. just and observation though if anyone likes pair would be something to look at.

I have a picture of this going south to the 9450 area more or less...just undecided whether to wait for it to break the weeklypivot at 9650...we'll see if it plays ball...problem is the spread - whcih forces me to daily...not that its such a bad thing after all...

Indeed, 1.9600 is offering support on daily charts. Price keeps trying to push higher but retraces rapidly. Overall a steady drop from mid December is clear. Strategy I'm pursueing now is sell above 1.97. Isn't volatility a wondrous thing.

Any of you guys looing at EUR/NZD too ?

the squeeze to break point may come sooner than later
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It all depends on the AUSSIE. With eurusd weakness the euraud still goes up as AUDUSD falls, too. This was the trade in play at end of next year, I think a direct result of hedge fund deleveraging. When will it end?? who knows, but I like Aussie long in the intermediate term on a recovering in commodity prices. Hard assets are the place to be in 2009, IMO.