Market & Trading Facts | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies

Trading S+D With Facts Ebook 232 replies

Market facts 22 replies

The facts 4 replies

Facts about technical indicators 10 replies

Market & Trading Facts

  • #41
  • Sep 22, 2005 2:49am Sep 22, 2005 2:49am
Quoting fijitrader
Here is the original post that started this thread:

Actually if you are new to trading it really is a good idea to assemble facts and differentiate them from beliefs. Beliefs when taken to be facts are one of the more dangerous gotchas in trading. Isolating pure facts is rather important for any level trader but an exercise that new traders ignore at their peril.

FT
Facts are baggage....people get loaded down with baggage and get nowhere(or the luggage gets lost!). By the looks of it the facts are fuzzy...this thread shows that no one knows the facts for sure. It's definately more vague than I expected. There are people who have good lists that include some obvious facts of daily market trading. The most solid 'facts' seemed to be the ones on the mechanisms of the market or inevitable happenings, but not really helpful to gaining the mindset of a trader.

Management separates the good traders from the ones who struggle. So I feel trying to give people new to market analysis skills to help them with the process, not the info.

My first impression was not a representation of the point the thread starter was making but was my first impression before I even began to read the thread(which took place in the time it took for the computer to load the page). My second impression is that it's going to be difficult to try and chase down facts. There probably is two or three key factual principals of the market that are insightful and help someone understand the market better. Good luck in trying to sort them out. Which ones are the facts and which ones are going to help the unenlightened, enlighten? It looks to me it would be an undertaking that is something I wouldn't enjoy being too deeply involved with.

I guess the 10 suggestions is not for you and the fact finding mission is not for me. That's could be one of the suggestions. 'It benefits a trader to find their own style of trading. Every style doesn't work for every person.'

I'll be looking in on the fact forum to see the progress but it might be too much for me...good luck

Peace
  • #42
  • Sep 22, 2005 12:23pm Sep 22, 2005 12:23pm
Quoting fijitrader
Go start your 10 suggestions thread and quit trying to screw with this one.

FT
Is voicing my opinion screwing with you? I'm sorry. I'll leave you to only likeminded people. So you won't get messed up by opinions that differ.
  • #43
  • Sep 22, 2005 11:09pm Sep 22, 2005 11:09pm
Quoting Pipsta
Is voicing my opinion screwing with you? I'm sorry. I'll leave you to only likeminded people. So you won't get messed up by opinions that differ.
Clearly you don't understand the etiquette of supporting the topic within a thread so go ahead pursue your discussion. As for me I was only interested in the original premise of the thread but you've made it clear that you want none of that topic and would rather impose a different one on this thread. Therefore I defer to your change of topic. Go ahead with your 10 suggestions or whatever other "opinions" you care to.

FT
  • #44
  • Sep 23, 2005 12:00am Sep 23, 2005 12:00am
Quoting fijitrader
Clearly you don't understand the etiquette of supporting the topic within a thread so go ahead pursue your discussion. As for me I was only interested in the original premise of the thread but you've made it clear that you want none of that topic and would rather impose a different one on this thread. Therefore I defer to your change of topic. Go ahead with your 10 suggestions or whatever other "opinions" you care to.

FT
Is it etiquette to support the thread topic? What if you aren't fond of the thread topic? Are you allowed to post? Can a person actually voice an opinion in opposition in the thread topic? Or do they have to start a different thread?

I'm not really in opposition. I see that it has been difficult for the thread contributors to come up with many solid 'facts' outside of the 'some will win and someone will lose' type of 'facts'. Market obvious ones that really offer much trading wisdom.

Am I not allowed to voice these concearns about the topic in the thread title for the topic just because they don't support the topic? How is that imposing something different onto the thread? Sounds pretty darn related. Wow...I was on my way out the door so to speak but instead of let me just leave in peace you had to try and take some parting potshots. Real classy. Now you're stuck with me.

So lets hear this list of 'facts' ya got. Maybe you can show me the light. Also can you show how you use these facts to trade better? I am curious now. I've done pretty well without facts in trading. Probabilities worked well enough. But hey, I hear these 'facts' are all the rage.

You got a friday fact that will help me make a wad? I heard this one: That friday's range will trend back towards mondays open. Ok...that's a myth...but it works good with the right setups(this week being one). I don't know how factual it is but it's darn helpful if your a novice trader. Fridays do have a tendency to be profit taking days so it's not uncommon to see a little retrace on friday(data release contingent) off the weekly trend. It's worth looking at come thurdays.

Whatcha think of my 'fact' does it cut it? Either way...I guess we'll see a display of it's worthiness soon.
  • #45
  • Sep 23, 2005 11:31am Sep 23, 2005 11:31am
Quoting Pipsta
I guess we'll see a display of it's worthiness soon.
So much for that. I had been tracking the friday myth for a while and found it only is right half the time. It has never really figured into my trading but I've always had an eye on the thrursday high or low depending on the trend for the week as a good spot for a position. Even if it gets overrun on friday it usually gives an opportunity to place a stoploss in profit.

Fridays and Sundays sure can be screwy.
  • #46
  • Sep 24, 2005 9:38pm Sep 24, 2005 9:38pm
been away for a while...

doesnt look like we made it anywhere with the "facts".

when it comes to a philisophical level, there really are no facts. so if we want to come up with some we have to look at them from a practical standpoint.

i still think these hold up as practical facts...

1- Supply & Demand forces cause price changes
2- Forex is a "zero-sum" market
3- There is no algorithm for market movement (no holy grail)
4- No one and no system can tell the future. We only speculate.
5- Human nature does not change
6 - market price behavior is always changing
7 - Everyday there is opportunity to profit
Relax and be happy.
  • #47
  • Sep 25, 2005 3:33am Sep 25, 2005 3:33am
More a set of beliefs, but I still think worth quoting:

"Here's what I believe:

1. The markets are not random. I don't care if the number of academicians who have argued the efficient market hypothesis would stretch to the moon and back if laid end to end; they are simply wrong.

2. The markets are not random, because they are based on human behavior, and human behavior, especially mass behavior, is not random. It never has been, and it probably never will be.

3. There is no holy grail or grand secret to the markets, but there are many patterns that can lead to profits.

4. There are a million ways to make money in markets. The irony is that they are all very difficult to find.

5. The markets are always changing, and they are always the same.

6. The secret to success in the markets lies not in discovering some incredible indicator or elaborate theory; rather, it lies within each individual.

7. To excel in trading requires a combination of talent and extremely hard work-(surprise!) the same combination required for excellence in any field. Those seeking success by buying the latest $300 or even $3,000 system, or by following the latest hot tip, will never find the answer because they haven't yet understood the question.

8. Success in trading is a worthy goal, but it will be worthless if it is not accompanied by success in your life (and I use the word success here without monetary connotation)."
  • #48
  • Sep 26, 2005 3:15am Sep 26, 2005 3:15am
Quoting Pipsta
Facts are baggage....people get loaded down with baggage and get nowhere(or the luggage gets lost!). By the looks of it the facts are fuzzy...this thread shows that no one knows the facts for sure. It's definately more vague than I expected. There are people who have good lists that include some obvious facts of daily market trading. The most solid 'facts' seemed to be the ones on the mechanisms of the market or inevitable happenings, but not really helpful to gaining the mindset of a trader.

Management separates the good traders from the ones who struggle. So I feel trying to give people new to market analysis skills to help them with the process, not the info.

My first impression was not a representation of the point the thread starter was making but was my first impression before I even began to read the thread(which took place in the time it took for the computer to load the page). My second impression is that it's going to be difficult to try and chase down facts. There probably is two or three key factual principals of the market that are insightful and help someone understand the market better. Good luck in trying to sort them out. Which ones are the facts and which ones are going to help the unenlightened, enlighten? It looks to me it would be an undertaking that is something I wouldn't enjoy being too deeply involved with.

I guess the 10 suggestions is not for you and the fact finding mission is not for me. That's could be one of the suggestions. 'It benefits a trader to find their own style of trading. Every style doesn't work for every person.'

I'll be looking in on the fact forum to see the progress but it might be too much for me...good luck

Peace
Well, if people weren't different in the way they see things, and believe in, we would have been complete machines. I agree that some facts which were mentioned here are a little bit vague to some traders, but they are not as vague as many other assumptions, which can't be even proven, like the efficient market theory for example.

I started this thread to list facts, debate about them, and then everyone can take whatever he believes in, and leave the rest. What everyone will take will be an add for sure.

I already took my list of facts and wrote them down into my trading handbook, so I actually made up my mind

Happy trading everyone

Thanks,

Nader
  • #49
  • Mar 16, 2007 12:54pm Mar 16, 2007 12:54pm
Here's a fact:

At the end of the day price will be greater than, less than, or equal to the price at the beginning of the day.

Maybe not very usefull, but it is a fact.
  • #50
  • Mar 16, 2007 1:03pm Mar 16, 2007 1:03pm
We don't necessarily need to have proven facts in our list. We could have axioms, i.e. ideas so basic and so obviously true that they don't require proof. This is how mathematicians approach much of their work. Start with what you know (either as something proven before or as something that is intuitively true), then use those axioms to prove important theorems which are generally less obvious ideas. That's it: Prove the unobvious from the obvious, the unintuitive from the intuitive. Some of these ideas mentioned are very obvious to us...what's not so obvious is how to consistently make money on the forex.

I'm not sure we will get anywhere, but I would be happy to contribute to an axiomatic approach to trading like this. Now it is important that our axioms are consistent, i.e. that they cannot lead to a contradiciton. Otherwise we have a problem; that set of ideas, when taken together would be meaningless.

-mathematician
  • #51
  • Mar 16, 2007 1:11pm Mar 16, 2007 1:11pm
More facts:

There are three basic ingredients of a trade:

  1. Direction
  2. Entry price
  3. Exit price


A successful trade requires chosing correctly all three. FACT!

NOTE: It is important to note however that there is not necessarily a unique solution. In any given sequence of price moves there are often multiple different ways to choose the three ingredients and make money. A simple example of the non-uniqueness would be: If the direction, entry price, and exit price worked such that there was a 10 pip profit, an alternative (and still successful) trade would have been: same direction, same entry, but exit 5 pips sooner.

  • #52
  • Edited 1:56pm Mar 16, 2007 1:43pm | Edited 1:56pm
Quoting mathematician
More facts:

There are three basic ingredients of a trade:

  1. Direction
  2. Entry price
  3. Exit price

A successful trade requires chosing correctly all three. FACT!

Not necessarily, you can buy Forex options and simply bet that the market will go NOWHERE and make a killing if you are right, no entry/exit or take profit price needed.
  • #53
  • Mar 16, 2007 2:23pm Mar 16, 2007 2:23pm
here's a fact

You profit from your EXITS not your ENTRY
  • #54
  • Mar 16, 2007 2:26pm Mar 16, 2007 2:26pm
Quoting hilmy83
here's a fact

You profit from your EXITS not your ENTRY
There are no exit price or stop loss or limit when you buy Forex options, you simply win the bet or you don't.

Otherwise yes, just show me the exit points and I would consistently make billions even if a monkey is selecting my entry points!
  • #55
  • Mar 16, 2007 2:45pm Mar 16, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting FXTerminator
Not necessarily, you can buy Forex options and simply bet that the market will go NOWHERE and make a killing if you are right, no entry/exit or take profit price needed.
I'm talking about the spot forex.
  • #56
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:06am Mar 20, 2007 6:06am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting narafa

2- All markets are "zero-sum" markets which means that for every trader winning there is another trader, or a group of traders, losing the same amount
Guys, wondering if we can explore this point a little bit. I agree that most (but not all) of the text on trading suggest that financial markets are zero sum games. The example we all come to expect is that person A who buys at the high would be the loser, while person B who sold to person A is the winner in the transaction.

I am just thinking out loud here now, so pull me up if I am way off, but let's take that concept one step further. Just say that in your typical trading session you sold AUD at the high (let's say 0.8000). That would mean that your counterparty, in this case the broker bought off you. Does that make the broker a loser? Most likely not, as I would suspect that the broker would have backed it out to the interbank market - and I would suppose that the price that the broker showed you would have been at least a point off where the interbank market was (since the broker is a market maker). So broker then sells it onto an interbank counterparty.

So now there is a bank with a position that originated from your trade sitting on their books where they are long AUD at the top. Is the bank a loser? Probably not, because along comes US importer who is importing a stack of boomerang's and needs to pay in AUD. So the importer comes to the bank and the bank sells the importer the AUD, and as with all retail clients, they charge a slight margin (say 6 points). The bank has now squared off its position.

So that raises the question is the importer a loser? I would say not. The transaction cost was just the cost of doing business. They needed the AUD to pay their supplier - did they not?

Anyhow, just thinking out loud guys.
  • #57
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:03am Mar 20, 2007 11:03am
Quote
3- No holy grails in trading.

What is a holy grail ? Does an auto-trading system that generates 1000% after 10 years can be considered a holy grail ?

I don't know if this is a fact

- You take the trade not because you know it will succeed but because you need to reproduce the statistic.
  • #58
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:49pm Mar 20, 2007 11:49pm
A "holy grail" is an ideal trading system. A strategy that always gives perfect trading signals. Or something close to perfect.

When some one says that there are no holy grails in trading, they mean that no system is perfect; all systems eventually go through a losing streak to some extent.

Quoting luqmanz
What is a holy grail ? Does an auto-trading system that generates 1000% after 10 years can be considered a holy grail ?

I don't know if this is a fact

- You take the trade not because you know it will succeed but because you need to reproduce the statistic.
  • #59
  • Mar 25, 2007 4:36pm Mar 25, 2007 4:36pm
When trying to uncover the truth about the forex, some times it seems as if there is really only one rule:

For every rule there is a counterexample and this rule is its own counterexample.

  • #60
  • Mar 25, 2007 5:30pm Mar 25, 2007 5:30pm
Quoting mathematician
When trying to uncover the truth about the forex, some times it seems as if there is really only one rule:

For every rule there is a counterexample and this rule is its own counterexample.
Sort of like, "you're damned if you do, and you're damned if you don't".....

This is an excellent thread because it has brought these things to light:

1. We can come up with so few known facts
2. Every contributor has different viewpoints of the fact, and therefore interprets it differently and has examples that prove or disprove, or are believed to do so.
3. There seems to be shades of grey on almost everything we think we know.
4. Most facts have those that agree and those that don't.
5. Anything that can be pinned down as a fact is so basic
that it is not of use in trading.
0 traders viewing now