Today's news - I don't get it! | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

I don't get it? Reaction after USD News Releases 15 replies

Don't do what Donny Don't does 52 replies

Where could I get the news for Swedish & Norwegian krone related news? 3 replies

Today's news - I don't get it!

  • #21
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:36am Mar 16, 2007 11:36am
Quoting juao
inverted yield curve. reason for that ?

there are tons of reasons. I don't want to upset anyone and since I know, that the majority of the forum's readers are Americans, I will not go into details, since this could cause upset people. That, I don't want.

At the moment there is a 50% chance for a recession in Q4 based on Mishkin's yield curve theory.
If you promise hat you will not take it personal, I will share my thoughts.


/Juao
I live in the United States. I will not be upset at all... go for it.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #22
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:37am Mar 16, 2007 11:37am
What could you possibly say that would upset Americans?

If it's about the economy, we all know economies go in cycles, so recession is just the normal part. The housing market? Over extended credit?

The only thing that would be upsetting, I would think, would be something accusatory...or possibly hate / racist propoganda...other than that, I don't think Americans would be upset to know that our economy is in a little bit of a transition and that the income gap is widening. We may be stubborn (as americans) sometimes, but you'd be surprised how enlightened the majority of the american readers here can be.

So, by all means, please explain...it may give us a chance to see how you view, and perhaps start a positive dialog that may change YOUR views of us.

Juao, if I may ask, what is your nation of origin? It will help us get a better understanding of the alignment of your point of view.

As for the 50% chance...I dunno...I've always considered that possibility, and honestly, I almost shorted the market the first time the curve temporarily inverted. The inversion at this point is still pretty flat, how long has the yield curve been inverted?

Quoting juao
inverted yield curve. reason for that ?

there are tons of reasons. I don't want to upset anyone and since I know, that the majority of the forum's readers are Americans, I will not go into details, since this could cause upset people. That, I don't want.

At the moment there is a 50% chance for a recession in Q4 based on Mishkin's yield curve theory.
If you promise hat you will not take it personal, I will share my thoughts.


/Juao
  • #23
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:39am Mar 16, 2007 11:39am
Quoting juao
inverted yield curve. reason for that ?

there are tons of reasons. I don't want to upset anyone and since I know, that the majority of the forum's readers are Americans, I will not go into details, since this could cause upset people. That, I don't want.

At the moment there is a 50% chance for a recession in Q4 based on Mishkin's yield curve theory.
If you promise hat you will not take it personal, I will share my thoughts.


/Juao
Why would anyone get upset about a theory? What is, is... If you feel you have some insights, lets hear them...
  • #24
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:41am Mar 16, 2007 11:41am
Quoting merlin
expecting a logical market reaction to news is very naive. just doesnt work like that, never has.

instead of taking the arbitrary logic in our head and forcing it upon the market, we should be listening to what the market is saying and forcing it upon our trade decisions. if you know how to listen correctly, the market can tell you a lot during news releases.
Hi Merlin,

Very Good advice for those whom are determined to trade the news. There appears to be underlying concerns over the sub-prime markets in the US, which will have a longer term impact than a monthly report.....I am not a Fundie guy, though I keep an ear open. Trick for most traders to learn, is never be "suprised" and listen to market and follow the big boys/gals....seperate expectations from reality, as most reports are mere interpretations, and Smart money has far more info, and larger agendas.

Good Luck
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #25
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:45am Mar 16, 2007 11:45am
Quoting mrmikal

Over extended credit?

?
This is what I whine and complain about all the time anyway.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #26
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:24pm Mar 16, 2007 3:24pm
i split the subprime discussion to new thread, i have a feeling we will be discussing this one for a while

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21763
Relax and be happy.
  • #27
  • Mar 16, 2007 10:30pm Mar 16, 2007 10:30pm
Quoting jose
Johnnie come lately answer...just read this. Why mkt. goes inspite of news? See my other posts under EUR/$. the mkt has a mind of its own...the mind of the bank manipulators. The Mkt is not random. The mkt is rigged. good example of it. Why so many news releases/speakers/delay reporting/erroneous reports/correction/accumulated corrections of over 6 to 8 prior months as recently happened/change of reporting dates/plunge protection team? Yea!/raising/lower rates/china rumors/russia rumors/etc. YOU SAy RANDOM, HUH? FOR YOUR TECH STUFF TO WORK, YOU NEED RANDOMNESS. WON'T HAPPEN & YOUR TECH WILL FAIL>
I have never seen so many truths about the market put in so litlle words and in a concise fashion as is your style. For once, you weren't abstract. Until people understand what you wrote above, they wont win this forex game. Only 5 % understand it, the rest of the herd is still dazzled by the lights (indicators, EA's and all the other TA stuff) and their own market logic. To make money in forex, one needs to be able to go with the flow of the market, whether the market is right or in our own mind appears to be wrong.
  • #28
  • Mar 18, 2007 2:57pm Mar 18, 2007 2:57pm
MR> FAURE, YES I HAVE< HAVE HAVE< POSSESS A HUGH EGO< EGO< ME MYSELF & IIIIIII. The same excess is in my bank account!
  • #29
  • Mar 18, 2007 3:14pm Mar 18, 2007 3:14pm
Jose, I actually agree with a lot of what you post. I just don't get why you post it in such an agressive/egomanical way. What is your motivation for posting here?
  • #30
  • Mar 18, 2007 5:13pm Mar 18, 2007 5:13pm
Quoting jose
Johnnie come lately answer...just read this. Why mkt. goes inspite of news? See my other posts under EUR/$. the mkt has a mind of its own...the mind of the bank manipulators. The Mkt is not random. The mkt is rigged. good example of it. Why so many news releases/speakers/delay reporting/erroneous reports/correction/accumulated corrections of over 6 to 8 prior months as recently happened/change of reporting dates/plunge protection team? Yea!/raising/lower rates/china rumors/russia rumors/etc. YOU SAy RANDOM, HUH? FOR YOUR TECH STUFF TO WORK, YOU NEED RANDOMNESS. WON'T HAPPEN & YOUR TECH WILL FAIL>
I agree that markets are manipulated wherever the opportunity arises. The human condition dictates that people should behave in this way.

However, these riggers can only manipulate the market to a certain extent. True, institutions can use releases to disguise their activities, create big spikes to get as much of the action as possible before we minnows can lock in our positions, and spend considerable sums on economists who will provide them with predictions (that are often wrong!!) they need to fix their positions before we can pick up the crumbs. And yet, time after time, we have seen the biggest players of all, governments, try to manipulate the market and get burned. Soros and his play of the UK's exit from the ERM is probably the most famous example of this.

Riggers will be as crafty as they possibly can, but in the end, the market as a whole will determine which way the price will go.
  • #31
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:09pm Mar 18, 2007 6:09pm
so what about housing this week,...ok. so lets say that housing prices might be at top, what does that wonts to say,...there are still ppl who take credits in xy currencies,...but in what currencies will the customers wont to take credits in future,...ok. CHF and YEN, that was the past or is again future?, should be its all corelated, the profit taking should stop and some hedgers will still leave the carries on hold, but the other question is how will the banks gona do the hedge in future,...gold on the long side?
its just money
  • #32
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:29pm Mar 18, 2007 8:29pm
Quoting Castlemain
Riggers will be as crafty as they possibly can, but in the end, the market as a whole will determine which way the price will go.
Yes, the market will determine which way the price will go eventually. But before that happens, riggers would have achieved their goals and moved on to their next plan. They are not long term players but they achieve their plans over a matter of hours, sometimes a few days.
  • #33
  • Mar 20, 2007 7:05am Mar 20, 2007 7:05am
I think this is one of the biggest mistakes beginners do (I did the same) expecting positive news to bring in buyers or negative news to bring in sellers. In this case there are lots of worries for the US economy due to the record numbers of delinquent loans which has investors worried. Today's home sales numbers should be a key data to look at. If the number comes out lower than expected I would expect for the USD to crash further. You have to look at the whole picture not just one data announcement as a guide of which way to trade, this is why technical analysis is so important.
  • #34
  • Mar 20, 2007 7:50am Mar 20, 2007 7:50am
Quoting Geldmeister
I am not really a news trader but are usually at the screen for major news and sometimes try to trade these, but is it just my untrained perception or had news trading become more difficult recently? What I mean is there seem to be less preditable moves such as today when many were waiting for direction on GBP/USD and we had UK - news plus $+ news and nothing happens!

Any ideas why that is?
If you are trading the result of the news wouldn't this prove a strong bias towards an upward move on the Cable?
  • #35
  • Mar 23, 2007 2:39pm Mar 23, 2007 2:39pm
Quoting MKK
As time goes by, I use more and more TA but news tradeing is still giving me about 50% of my income.
mkk, i'm new in trading the forex. can you please tell me how you trade the news? Please?!!!
  • #36
  • Last Post: May 15, 2007 11:57pm May 15, 2007 11:57pm
I think most of us have started trading forex market after 2000, I know not all. Since then the dollar has taken a beating, and it may be what I call the Bush effect. Trash it even if it means sense. But also in this time there has been a great price drop in high speed Internet access and prices have come down. Hence, many many more speculators that make it all the more unpredictable.
Who knows, but I do believe the forex market does show world demand for any currency and is as balanced a system as the world can put together. Adam Smith would be proud.
0 traders viewing now