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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #152,301
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:14pm Jan 11, 2009 10:14pm
Quoting grashid
Below 135.46 it may tend to touch at my S3=134.41
Below 134.05 may tend to go to maybe 2nd bottom @ 132.73 before trying to test @ 130 level...

Anyway still have 2 lot floating which I sold @ 141.15 and 139.45....Any ideas....
price it bouncing off the 50% fib from the swing high/lo from 129/141.. .
if it holds the gap will probably be closed/filled and the DP challenged - DP currently sits @ 137.80 area. . .

If the DP is breached price will head to R1 @ 139 area. . . If price is rejected target are 134/132.50 respectively. . .

Market needs to decide which direction it would like to take price - volume is thin so nothing driving it either way right now. . .
  • #152,302
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:19pm Jan 11, 2009 10:19pm
Posting the H&S on the Daily. Shows GU down in the 1.3s
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  • #152,303
  • Edited 10:40pm Jan 11, 2009 10:25pm | Edited 10:40pm
Quoting bigcoupe
Posting the H&S on the Daily. Shows GU down in the 1.3s
1.30's OH MY!!!!!!!!! =
  • #152,304
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:55pm Jan 11, 2009 10:55pm
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  • #152,305
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:26pm Jan 11, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting quecee5
price it bouncing off the 50% fib from the swing high/lo from 129/141.. .
if it holds the gap will probably be closed/filled and the DP challenged - DP currently sits @ 137.80 area. . .

If the DP is breached price will head to R1 @ 139 area. . . If price is rejected target are 134/132.50 respectively. . .

Market needs to decide which direction it would like to take price - volume is thin so nothing driving it either way right now. . .
Agreed....look for M15 for further confirmation....anyway just put my SL for both floating lot @ 137.76= Daily Pivot..see what happen.....
  • #152,306
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:40pm Jan 11, 2009 11:40pm
see you guys @ london.
  • #152,307
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:42pm Jan 11, 2009 11:42pm
Little test here...
I noticed during this dead Aisa consolidation, that the G/U volume is generally higher on "up" or green bars. This leads me to believe that the smart money is accumilating longs here. A long position breaks a few rules..this is a bear flag, down trend..yada yada. I took a small long position @ 150.96 for a scalp up...let's see.
  • #152,308
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:45pm Jan 11, 2009 11:45pm
Quoting grashid
Agreed....look for M15 for further confirmation....anyway just put my SL for both floating lot @ 137.76= Daily Pivot..see what happen.....
Yep, I got a few longs at 135.60 area with very tight SL - shooting for DP 1st target - a close above there and I will hold these longs a little while longer otherwise its currently a risk free trade for me -
  • #152,309
  • Edited Jan 12, 2009 12:04am Jan 11, 2009 11:53pm | Edited Jan 12, 2009 12:04am
Quoting Petefaders
Little test here...
I noticed during this dead Aisa consolidation, that the G/U volume is generally higher on "up" or green bars. This leads me to believe that the smart money is accumilating longs here. A long position breaks a few rules..this is a bear flag, down trend..yada yada. I took a small long position @ 150.96 for a scalp up...let's see.
On gj you have 5 wave up from 129 to 141. . .
if 135.40/60 holds then thats 3 waves down which equals corrective
that would mean we should see 5 waves up to complete this entire corrective wave up before the trend continues which is down. . .

price broke 139 resistance up to 141. . .I ultimately see 148.60's perhaps
165 before the major down trend continues. . . if you look at both gj and gu they both look like they have put in a short-term bottom

all this will be negated if price closes below 133 which is very possible. . .
  • #152,310
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:59pm Jan 11, 2009 11:59pm
I say GJ will go up and down

both are very possible....
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #152,311
  • Jan 12, 2009 12:00am Jan 12, 2009 12:00am
Quoting Petefaders
Little test here...
I noticed during this dead Aisa consolidation, that the G/U volume is generally higher on "up" or green bars. This leads me to believe that the smart money is accumilating longs here. A long position breaks a few rules..this is a bear flag, down trend..yada yada. I took a small long position @ 150.96 for a scalp up...let's see.


one rule you forget young Jedi

There are not many pros at play in Asia ... volume means little
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #152,312
  • Jan 12, 2009 12:12am Jan 12, 2009 12:12am
Quoting Petefaders
Little test here...
I noticed during this dead Aisa consolidation, that the G/U volume is generally higher on "up" or green bars. This leads me to believe that the smart money is accumilating longs here. A long position breaks a few rules..this is a bear flag, down trend..yada yada. I took a small long position @ 150.96 for a scalp up...let's see.

Pete

vsa is not by seeing something in the charts and assuming it is doing a certain thing. it is about waiting to see what the reaction to the volume is ... and the history in the background. GBP weakness in the background..

Right now I have been selling gbpjpy off 136.10 during Asia .. it has been slow but profitable

The higher volume up candles on 5 min chart could well be sellers absorbing buyers.

for real accumulation it is better to see high vol down bars testing support with no follow through

right now we have had NO reaction to any of the higher volume up bars on GU

we will have to see what LOndon holds for us to see if the inside bar on the daily plays out or not ( bearish)
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #152,313
  • Jan 12, 2009 12:19am Jan 12, 2009 12:19am
Thanks, Master M.
  • #152,314
  • Jan 12, 2009 12:28am Jan 12, 2009 12:28am
Quoting malcolmb14
one rule you forget young Jedi

There are not many pros at play in Asia ... volume means little
Hi Malcomb what timeframes are best for observing volume?

Thanks, and I enjoy all your posts
  • #152,315
  • Jan 12, 2009 12:47am Jan 12, 2009 12:47am
I'm not reading to much into the drift down since the open. Volume will be light and the big players will not be playing yet. There would have been sell orders waiting after the down moves on Friday, so any gap down was not unexpected. BUT, this gap was not that big.

First few hours of UK session should give us a shake-out down, but I think accumulation in the 134-5 areas will be happening.
  • #152,316
  • Jan 12, 2009 1:03am Jan 12, 2009 1:03am
Quoting MykeFX
Hi Malcomb what timeframes are best for observing volume?

Thanks, and I enjoy all your posts
like with every technique, the signals from the short tfs like 2m, 5m can be short lived, but if you watch for action in the right place on e.g. a 15m chart and look for entries on the 3m based on that, it is another thing.

generally the low tfs are often whipsaw. when i look at charts i always use a mutiplier of 5 to get a view from different sides. 2m-10m-60m (50 makes no sense..)-300m.
  • #152,317
  • Jan 12, 2009 1:08am Jan 12, 2009 1:08am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I'm not reading to much into the drift down since the open. Volume will be light and the big players will not be playing yet. There would have been sell orders waiting after the down moves on Friday, so any gap down was not unexpected. BUT, this gap was not that big.

First few hours of UK session should give us a shake-out down, but I think accumulation in the 134-5 areas will be happening.
I tough you still believe with your PA to 150 since last BOE news. ahaks
  • #152,318
  • Jan 12, 2009 1:16am Jan 12, 2009 1:16am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
like with every technique, the signals from the short tfs like 2m, 5m can be short lived, but if you watch for action in the right place on e.g. a 15m chart and look for entries on the 3m based on that, it is another thing.

generally the low tfs are often whipsaw. when i look at charts i always use a mutiplier of 5 to get a view from different sides. 2m-10m-60m (50 makes no sense..)-300m.
ok, thanks Dr. I will check out the TFs. I aspire to some day join up as idiot bottlewasher for the society of no pips left behind... let me hone my skills before I submit an application...
  • #152,319
  • Jan 12, 2009 1:19am Jan 12, 2009 1:19am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I'm not reading to much into the drift down since the open. Volume will be light and the big players will not be playing yet. There would have been sell orders waiting after the down moves on Friday, so any gap down was not unexpected. BUT, this gap was not that big.

First few hours of UK session should give us a shake-out down, but I think accumulation in the 134-5 areas will be happening.
i don't see the chance of much accumulation going on here since the last massive failure of 140. in over 2 years we had only one day where volume was higher than on the two bars tackling 140. those bars were very weak and with that amount of vol unable to go up. we had heavy supply hitting the market, a failed test like bar followed by a lower vol down bar which makes those two bars to a top reversal. the lower vol only peaks out because the previous upbars were so excessive in vol. but compared relatively to all the other bars vol on that downbar still is high and for me no chance 135-134 holds with that massive profittaking and reshorting behind us. seeing 130 or if that's not enough sub 130 and the lower tl of the channel as stop for now.

since most of the traders here use gann, you should keep in mind that he stated that a market only can rise when the rectracements get bigger and i do not see this here. averaging 1000p with one 1500p behind us. the current one says the same and just looks like continuation.
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  • #152,320
  • Jan 12, 2009 1:30am Jan 12, 2009 1:30am
Ok here's my analysis of GJ for the medium term

Daily QQE crossed up last week and price moved above daily gann (still is), but price was rejected at the daily 50ema. If price gets back below daily gann (134) then expect bearish continuation and a new low.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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