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Slingshot-30 Min. PA System

  • #121
  • Jan 10, 2009 11:25am Jan 10, 2009 11:25am
Quoting damonl
Bar number 1 had a lower low then the previous bar, but it did not come back over the close on the same bar....is that why you used bar #2 as your entry bar?

My understanding is that all this had to happen on the same bar
He was showing a 1M chart, not a 30M chart.

The blue line, at the bottom, represented the low of the previous 30 1M bars, which would be the same as the low of the previous 30M bar.
  • #122
  • Jan 10, 2009 11:29am Jan 10, 2009 11:29am
My chart is a 1 minute bar and the whole chart represent one 30 minute bar.
I'm just showing what happens in side the 30 minute bar.


My results for the little bit of backing testing I have done seem to show that the worst trades are when the close is only a few pips away from the high or low and you end up with a stop that is to close to your entry as shown on my chart.

I also noticed that I seemed to get better results if I only made trades in the direction of the general trend.
  • #123
  • Jan 10, 2009 11:31am Jan 10, 2009 11:31am
Quoting Abnormalone
My chart is a 1 minute bar and the whole chart represent one 30 minute bar.
I'm just showing what happens in side the 30 minute bar.


My results for the little bit of backing testing I have done seem to show that the worst trades are when the close is only a few pips away from the high or low and you end up with a stop that is to close to your entry as shown on my chart.

I also noticed that I seemed to get better results if I only made trades in the direction of the general trend.
How do you measure the general trend?
  • #124
  • Jan 10, 2009 11:45am Jan 10, 2009 11:45am
I had a 89 SMA on the 30 min chart that I just happened to notice was moving up on the one min chart and for the last day that I tested.
The long trades that day were a lot better than the short but I would not consider this enough of a test to make a conclusion from.
  • #125
  • Jan 10, 2009 11:47am Jan 10, 2009 11:47am
Quoting Dan S
GBP/USD Mon-Thu
Monday: +98(my result was +126 in 7 trades -28 pips spread)
Tuesday +10 (+169 minus 7 trades x 4) Is this right calc you have +10?
Wednesday +53 (+101 minus 12 x 4)
Thursday -88 (+56 minus 8 x 4) Is this right calc -88?

EUR/JPY
Monday: -76 (my result was -32 in 11 trades -44 pips spread)
Tuesday +142 (+182 minus 10 trades x 4)
Wednesday +7 (+55 minus 12 x 4)
Thursday -75 (+31 minus 11 x 4) Is this right calc -75?

..
Hey Dan, just double-checking your totals and I wrote in red the ones that don't seem correct. Can you tell me if I am misunderstanding?
  • #126
  • Jan 10, 2009 11:49am Jan 10, 2009 11:49am
Will the Stop loss and Take profit which are set to 0 in your EA over ride the Stop loss and Take profit as described in the rules?
  • #127
  • Jan 10, 2009 11:54am Jan 10, 2009 11:54am
Quoting Abnormalone
My chart is a 1 minute bar and the whole chart represent one 30 minute bar.
I'm just showing what happens in side the 30 minute bar.


My results for the little bit of backing testing I have done seem to show that the worst trades are when the close is only a few pips away from the high or low and you end up with a stop that is to close to your entry as shown on my chart.

I also noticed that I seemed to get better results if I only made trades in the direction of the general trend.
gotcha
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #128
  • Jan 10, 2009 11:58am Jan 10, 2009 11:58am
Quoting Abnormalone
I had a 89 SMA on the 30 min chart that I just happened to notice was moving up on the one min chart and for the last day that I tested.
The long trades that day were a lot better than the short but I would not consider this enough of a test to make a conclusion from.
It may be good and needs to be tested.
  • #129
  • Jan 10, 2009 12:01pm Jan 10, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting Abnormalone
My chart is a 1 minute bar and the whole chart represent one 30 minute bar.
I'm just showing what happens in side the 30 minute bar.


My results for the little bit of backing testing I have done seem to show that the worst trades are when the close is only a few pips away from the high or low and you end up with a stop that is to close to your entry as shown on my chart.

I also noticed that I seemed to get better results if I only made trades in the direction of the general trend.
I wonder if it would be good to set a limit for close to high/low of say maybe 8 pips or so, or if it is closer then that it has to penetrate the high/low by "x" pips.

One of these two might help from getting false entried when low/high is very near to the close.
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #130
  • Jan 10, 2009 4:50pm Jan 10, 2009 4:50pm
Any back tests for the first 5 hours of NY session? I'm wondering how many bars under 15 pips were calculated when the back testing was done. Those were bound to be losers. Looks like EU and GBP are worth trading. Paris
  • #131
  • Jan 11, 2009 2:35am Jan 11, 2009 2:35am
Quoting llambert3
Hey Dan, just double-checking your totals and I wrote in red the ones that don't seem correct. Can you tell me if I am misunderstanding?
Dont know what I hacked in there, its obviously incorrect, I will correct it when I get back into office. I copied the previous text and edited it. Looks like I didnt edit well...
  • #132
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:07am Jan 11, 2009 10:07am
Quoting TimeFreedom
Here is the EA with some bug fixes. I tested EURUSD, H1 for three months, Oct. - Dec., and the results are a lot better than on the M30. Please take a look and let me know what you think.

@ Bill
Make sure you change the MagicNumber for each currency you intend to test the EA on.

Note: Keep in mind that this EA is not a finished product thus the usage of Beta in the EA name. Please use only to test the strategies validity.

TimeFreedom
Hey TF...I do not believe these backtested results at all my friend. Whether it is the EA or the backtesting. I personally did a manual backtest for about 4 days beginning in January and checked my results with the backtested results....completely different.

I took every obvious one trade during the timeframe specified, left out questionable wins that were not obvious, added questionable losses that were not obvious and then subtracted 150 pips from my profits incase I missed some losses. I also left out more questionable wins and still came up with over + 400 pips in profit on eurusd M30 chart. Using the same lot size as the backtester, none of the wins came up identical

However, I did use a 20 pip s/l instead of the default s/l, and left the trade open until I could close in profit or hit my s/l

I have also found this works on most all tf's from M30 to D1 and so I am looking at trading all TF's for those 4 pairs.

...but once again, I think the results are much better then what your backtesting shows, unless it is your EA that is off a bit.

Hope that this is helpful....

P.S. I just did a visual to the backtested results to looking at teh chart above it and blatantly many trades were missed by the backtesting and so I have confirmed just how inaccuarte those backtested results are......
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #133
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:18am Jan 11, 2009 10:18am
In the backtest, your 20 pip s/l did not function and what is pip buffer?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #134
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:25am Jan 11, 2009 10:25am
Damonl;

I have a new updated EA coming soon. I did not code in for SL and TP usage since it is not part of the strat. I agree that MT4 EA backtesting is not very accurate but it's a start to validate the strats validity.

TimeFreedom

Quoting damonl
In the backtest, your 20 pip s/l did not function and what is pip buffer?
  • #135
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:53am Jan 11, 2009 10:53am
Damonl;

We need to keep the testing criteria the same to get consistent results. If you incorporate a fixed SL then your results will be different. I think for now let's test the EA and make sure it follows the strat. to a "T" and then we can start to optimize if needed. What say you?

TimeFreedom

Quoting damonl
Hey TF...I do not believe these backtested results at all my friend. Whether it is the EA or the backtesting. I personally did a manual backtest for about 4 days beginning in January and checked my results with the backtested results....completely different.

I took every obvious one trade during the timeframe specified, left out questionable wins that were not obvious, added questionable losses that were not obvious and then subtracted 150 pips from my profits incase I missed some losses. I also left out more questionable wins and still came up...
  • #136
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:08am Jan 11, 2009 11:08am
Quoting TimeFreedom
Damonl;

We need to keep the testing criteria the same to get consistent results. If you incorporate a fixed SL then your results will be different. I think for now let's test the EA and make sure it follows the strat. to a "T" and then we can start to optimize if needed. What say you?

TimeFreedom
I am with you...The problem I see is that all these 5-7 pip stop losses will keep nickel and diming your account, and indeed that is what is happening...but one step at a time.

What is the "pip buffer" in your EA?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #137
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:43am Jan 11, 2009 11:43am
One other thing I was thinking about is this...

If close<5 pips from high/low, then piercing bar must go above high/low by 15 pips before it is considered a valid entry

If close is between 5-10 pips then 10 pips of piercing

If close is 10 - 15 pips then 5 pips of piercing

If close > 15 then 1 pip of piercing is enough....

Just something to think about as this moves forward
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #138
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:46am Jan 11, 2009 11:46am
For a more conservative entry you could simply wait until the second bar is completed too. Then, only enter if the close of the second bar is above the close of the first bar.

Consider a LONG setup:

There is the first bar. Then the second bar breaks below the low of the first bar. The original rules of the system say that you should enter (go long) as soon as price is 1 pip above the close of the first bar. You might even set a stop/limit entry order to do this.

Some people expressed concerns that the second bar could change a lot through its development. By the time the second bar has completed, it might not look like a very promising setup anymore. Here is an alternative entry that would be more conservative: Simply wait until the second bar is completed too. Then, only enter if the close of the second bar is above the close of the first bar. That way you know you still have a bullish situation.

I haven't done any testing with this. I suspect it would have fewer trades, but a higher win percentage or a higher average winning trade. It's hard to say if it will be more profitable in the long run without any testing, but this might be useful for those of you who trade with a daily profit goal. This way you can select higher-probability setups.
  • #139
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:51am Jan 11, 2009 11:51am
I think we need to determine the profitability of the system as it is, before we talk about changes.

If we don't know how it performs, as written, there is no way to know if a change is an improvement.
  • #140
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:56am Jan 11, 2009 11:56am
Quoting billbss
I think we need to determine the profitability of the system as it is, before we talk about changes.

If we don't know how it performs, as written, there is no way to know if a change is an improvement.

COMPLETELY AGREE!!!
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