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True support and resistance?

  • #21
  • Jan 10, 2009 1:19pm Jan 10, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting gspajon
Fry,


I hold that they are valueless for entry or exit. I'm sure there are many who will disagree and I'm quite positive you will hear these trader's battle stories of their accuracy in psyhology, or market sentiment...rubbish...its just a line you put on your chart to make YOU feel better.

The market will do, what the market does.
Well, BRV over on the "No Brainer Trades" thread would certainly disagree. Over a four month period he called 42 trades on the basis of reversal from S/R lines (well before the lines were hit). As of last tally he had a 90% or better win rate, with price often reversing within a pip or two of where the S/R line was, and with in some cases only a few pips drawdown on the trade (in at least one case, only one pip). He claims to have been using S/R as pretty much his sole method of trading for three years of professional trading now.
  • #22
  • Jan 10, 2009 1:25pm Jan 10, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting tommyd
You can trade as naked as you want but you are still trading s/r.
Market movement all comes down to supply & demand which by the very nature of its being establishes s/r levels.
Some people never get it i guess. We all trade s&r just in different forms.
  • #23
  • Jan 10, 2009 5:49pm Jan 10, 2009 5:49pm
Quoting belekas
S&R is key, doesnt matter in what form it is presented for the traders delight. If you have the required skills to make them work for you means your doing well and you is on the right track.

Regards.
sentiment is the key not S/R

I think the consensus is for each one of us to draw "personally believed" S/R lines or double lines or extension lines or even AREA, some may add volume to justify the exact price.

the market disregard them since it is mainly run by the minority who hold the most liquidity

people even drawing S/R on cross pairs charts which is merely the byproduct of another TRUE charts.

we should be honest the S/R doesn't work, but sometimes it work if you keep playing around, picking the swings drawing fibo trying to make sense of the S/R then one will start making a "new" rule. if it doesn't work, hey we have metamorphosis rite? we can always enlarge the area of S/R, making addition to the rules

leave them alone and start trading without the bias of S/R. the charts are much much more honest without the restriction lines.
  • #24
  • Jan 10, 2009 5:59pm Jan 10, 2009 5:59pm
hey gift art, maybe you trade better with out s/r but surely u shudnt force ur view on other people?
  • #25
  • Jan 10, 2009 6:17pm Jan 10, 2009 6:17pm
Whatever. Profit is what matters at the end. Safe pipping.

Quoting Gift_Art
sentiment is the key not S/R

I think the consensus is for each one of us to draw "personally believed" S/R lines or double lines or extension lines or even AREA, some may add volume to justify the exact price....
  • #26
  • Jan 10, 2009 8:08pm Jan 10, 2009 8:08pm
Quoting belekas
Whatever. Profit is what matters at the end. Safe pipping.
Inserted Video
  • #27
  • Jan 11, 2009 3:47am Jan 11, 2009 3:47am
Quoting belekas
Whatever. Profit is what matters at the end. Safe pipping.
ah that one I agree
  • #28
  • Jan 11, 2009 3:51am Jan 11, 2009 3:51am
Quoting fry2010
hey gift art, maybe you trade better with out s/r but surely u shudnt force ur view on other people?
I'm telling the truth, isn't that what you meant on your title,
true support and resistance?

answer is none
  • #29
  • Jan 11, 2009 5:53am Jan 11, 2009 5:53am
fair enough comment.
  • #30
  • Jan 11, 2009 6:10am Jan 11, 2009 6:10am
Quoting tommyd
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7Ccl...eature=related
Cant agree more. Check out my journal and if you like what you see there please shrare your view's once the discussion starts on the next week. Seems to me your on the right path.

Regards.
  • #31
  • Jan 11, 2009 6:12am Jan 11, 2009 6:12am
Quoting orcus
Well, BRV over on the "No Brainer Trades" thread would certainly disagree. Over a four month period he called 42 trades on the basis of reversal from S/R lines (well before the lines were hit). As of last tally he had a 90% or better win rate, with price often reversing within a pip or two of where the S/R line was, and with in some cases only a few pips drawdown on the trade (in at least one case, only one pip). He claims to have been using S/R as pretty much his sole method of trading for three years of professional trading now.
Yes, just like with every other technical tool it's a case of taking the time and effort to learn how to use it effectively. But, human nature being what it is, people want textbook solutions that are instant, simplistic, and work perfectly every time.

We look at a tool like S/R and might see it fail more than 50% of the time. Then we either trash it and move on, or we persevere by trying to ascertain why it failed on the occasions that it did. By taking the time and effort to sift through the successes and failures we might learn to spot higher 'quality' S/R, based on timeframe, price behavior around it, how 'clean' or unambguously conspicuous it is, how often it's been tested, where it occurs during a move, and possibly several other criteria. We might study the prevailing conditions and find that different types of S/R work better in a trending, or ranging, market. We might find ways of using it in conjunction with other tools, that collectively provide infomation that leads to an edge - not a 100% win rate, but a workable edge, nonetheless. And so forth.

Folk like BRV have spent many hundreds of hours of screen time to become experts on the different types of S/R, and have a good feel as to how price is more likely to behave around each type. Their diligence and hard work has paid off for them in spades.

Even if we never reach BRV's level of expertise, there are other pertinent questions that we can ask. Even if price doesn't reverse at the exact pip every time, can we nonetheless build a profitable system around it? What is the biggest adverse excursion, and the biggest favorable excursion, from an S/R point? Can we set a tight SL, and somehow use trade management to get a high RR trade on the occasions when a reversal does occur? Given that we can be as selective as we wish with our entries, do the probabilities exist somewhere in there to come up with any kind of positive expectancy system?

But alas, we will never reach the point of asking these kind of questions if we simply dismiss a technical tool on the basis that a brief initial perusal shows a less-than-perfect hit rate.
  • #32
  • Jan 11, 2009 6:37am Jan 11, 2009 6:37am
Very nice post hanover. It aither holds or it breaks. Imagine if the market could go left or right, then will we be able to even try putting the odds in our favour? These patterns provides a picture of what the market participants are actually doing and enable us to determine their reaction to market events. Chart analysis is actually a study of human psichology and the reactions of the traders to changing market conditions. Unfortunatly, because that we live in the fast-paced world of financial markets, we tend to rely heavily on the chart terminology and shortcut expressions that overlook the underlying forces that created the pictures on the charts in the first place. There are sound psichological reasons why support and resistance levels can be identified on price charts and why they can be used to help predict market movements.

Quoting hanover
Yes, just like with every other technical tool it's a case of taking the time and effort to learn how to use it effectively. But, human nature being what it is, people want textbook solutions that are instant, simplistic, and work perfectly every time.

We look at a tool like S/R and might see it fail more than 50% of the time. Then we either trash it and move on, or we persevere by trying to ascertain why it failed on the occasions that it did. By taking the time and effort to sift through the successes and failures we might learn to spot higher...
  • #33
  • Jan 11, 2009 4:27pm Jan 11, 2009 4:27pm
There are a lot of views and opinions flying around, not much info I havnt heard before, bt i shudnt really have much expectation when there a threads dedicated to s/r.
Anyway does anyone have views on the phsycology behind fakeouts?
Somthing that has been said here is that people draw s/r differently, but there are some that are just so obvois that everyone that uses s/r must notice it.
At the end of the day price must be in a range for it to be noticable. Then it clearly breaks out 'faking' its move, which clearly is a trap once it turns and heads the other way or re-enters its trading range. So what are the big players thinking around here? Maybe its not important what they are thinking exactly, but rather there must be some large orders waiting after price has broken out to turn the direction. These orders wudnt be from retail people or people that just dont know, because they tend to just go with the flow of its current direction.
So theres a good chance you know where the smart money is going, for price to stall after breakout and reverse.

Another thing i wanted to point out is:
We no that price tends to drop quicker than it rises. In my relativly limited charting experience i notice breakouts tend to hold more true to the down side.
The only reason I can think this occurs is because people are less willing to buy somthing that is falling in value, than to sell somthing that is rising in value.
The funny thing is it doesnt matter in the forex market whether it goes up or down, so u wud expect price to drop roughly the same rate it rises, but this does not happen. Theres deffinatly physcological implecations here.
  • #34
  • Jan 11, 2009 4:30pm Jan 11, 2009 4:30pm
Id say its easier to trade the chart from up to down then vice versa. And the bears tear the terrain alot faster then it has taken time for the bulls to build it.

Quoting fry2010
There are a lot of views and opinions flying around, not much info I havnt heard before, bt i shudnt really have much expectation when there a threads dedicated to s/r.
Anyway does anyone have views on the phsycology behind fakeouts?
Somthing that has been said here is that people draw s/r differently, but there are some that are just so obvois that everyone that uses s/r must notice it.
At the end of the day price must be in a range for it to be noticable. Then it clearly breaks out 'faking' its move, which clearly is a trap once it turns and...
  • #35
  • Jan 11, 2009 4:41pm Jan 11, 2009 4:41pm
belekas i dnt quite get u when u say up to down? i thought thats what i was describing or am i not? r u talking about considering time into the equation? maybe u have a gd point there if cause thats how i wud see true support resistance, basically exclude time from it meaning u wudnt have these fancy t/l's and h/s etc, u just got price.
As for the bears bringing it down more, this is what im descibing on a physcological point. Think about it why wud price drop faster if the fx market has two values i.e. something is strengthening while somthing else is weakening?
Because people are more reluctant to buy somthing that is falling in value than to sell somthing that is gaining strength.
  • #36
  • May 16, 2026 1:39am May 16, 2026 1:39am
I'm looking for this turncoat support and resistance indicator please share if you have
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  • #37
  • May 16, 2026 2:13pm May 16, 2026 2:13pm
Quoting Beast10
I'm looking for this turncoat support and resistance indicator
Hi, and be careful what you wish for!

(You really don’t need an indicator for support and resistance, and especially not one that you have to buy, and especially especially not a Metatrader one.
You just need to understand clearly that 'support' is a short way of saying "swings-low by prices" and 'resistance' is a short way of saying "swings-high by prices". Congratulations on being able to see those on a chart without needing an indicator! )
  • #38
  • Last Post: May 22, 2026 2:11pm May 22, 2026 2:11pm
I agree more with the idea that support and resistance are areas, not exact lines. My trades improved when I stopped expecting a level to hold perfectly and started watching how price reacts around it
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