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the key to the mint

  • #4,561
  • Jan 7, 2009 9:34pm Jan 7, 2009 9:34pm
Quoting harold4x
nice trade chet only thing is it was more than 24 pips with the spread
Oops! It wasn't intentional Harold, I must have miscalulated, I had it at 22 with the spread. Thanks for your post.
  • #4,562
  • Edited 5:53am Jan 8, 2009 5:41am | Edited 5:53am
Hi
In the eur/usd chart below the 2 bars following the number 3 bar.
Is that ok as long as they dont take out the number 1 bar.
Also as we enter on the break of 2 we put are stop above 3
the bar having broke 2 could go back and take out the stop
would we still re enter.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #4,563
  • Edited 6:04am Jan 8, 2009 5:53am | Edited 6:04am
Quote
Hi
In the eur/usd chart below the 2 bars following the number 3 bar.
Is that ok as long as they dont take out the number 1 bar.
Thanks

Blackdog,
The next bar became the new #3 as it was higher than the bar you had marked, however it made the setup too big to trade based on Mint rules....

edit;I just noticed 5 digit pricing, that threw me off. As long as the spread between point 2 and the new point 3 were 24 pips or less then the trade would have still been valid....

Best,
DS
  • #4,564
  • Jan 8, 2009 6:15am Jan 8, 2009 6:15am
Quote
Also as we enter on the break of 2 we put are stop above 3
the bar having broke 2 could go back and take out the stop
would we still re enter.

I think Harold views the setup as busted if that happens, so no re-entry. You then wait for another setup...

DS
  • #4,565
  • Jan 8, 2009 7:55am Jan 8, 2009 7:55am
Ok thanks for the reply
  • #4,566
  • Jan 8, 2009 8:15am Jan 8, 2009 8:15am
Hi everyone, I am new in this thread. Was following TEB WSS system but apparently TEB is goin away.


I realised that the method changed alot from the front page.
Now it has become a 1,2,3 method?


Correct me, this is how one select a trade


1. Look at the Daily, IF 5'8 EMA cross upwards, RSI above 50, then we are only looking at long trades at 5 min chart.

2. Moving the 5min chart, every time theres a 1,2,3 break, the stochastic must cross upwards, EMA and RSI all long, then we enter.


Am I right?

I read somewhere how you identify a valid 1,2,3. That I do not understand. Something to do with the 2 and 3 not to far apart?


And how do you take profit? Fixed at 20pips, locking in SL at 20pips profit alr?



Thanks alot. I m into 1,2,3 breaks alot!
{Promotion Removed}
  • #4,567
  • Jan 8, 2009 10:55am Jan 8, 2009 10:55am
Quote
Hi everyone, I am new in this thread. Was following TEB WSS system but apparently TEB is goin away.


I realised that the method changed alot from the front page.
Now it has become a 1,2,3 method?


Correct me, this is how one select a trade


1. Look at the Daily, IF 5'8 EMA cross upwards, RSI above 50, then we are only looking at long trades at 5 min chart.

See attached for pretty much the complete setup and rules, also go back and look at Harold's charts for the last couple of months. He shows numerous 1,2,3. there is no good way to explain it, U have to see it. But once you see a few it becomes very easy.

DS
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Key to Mint Trade Checklist.doc   30 KB | 871 downloads
  • #4,568
  • Jan 9, 2009 10:04pm Jan 9, 2009 10:04pm
thx for that doc.

It is very good.

I have one question. Do we scalp the market with this method, or should we hold the trade as long as we can? Coz from what I have observed, there might be a 1,2,3 break but price go back above the 1, and later go down again.

So should we protect our profits when we already make 20 pips?

Give your comments. Thanks
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  • #4,569
  • Jan 10, 2009 1:42am Jan 10, 2009 1:42am
This is a simple, easy to understand system. It does take some time to develop some judgement to be able to recognize the best setups, tho.

One thing I am still not clear on, is why is there some arbitrary number of pips that you should use for the max risk on the pullback?

For instance, why is it acceptable to take a trade if the pullback is say, 20 pips, but not acceptable if the pullback is 25 pips? I know you have to draw the line somewhere, but in terms of risk, you can manage it by using smaller lot size.

Is it because any larger setups don't normally work? Has anyone specifically tried using "larger sized" 123 setups to see exactly what the r/r and hitrate is on anything larger than a 20 pip pullback?

If anyone has tried using a larger setup, what were your results? What was the percentage of win/loss? What if the hitrate was only 50% but the average win was 3 times as large?

Not trying to change the rules, but something to consider in these more volatile markets recently.

Thanks friends.
  • #4,570
  • Jan 10, 2009 5:21am Jan 10, 2009 5:21am
Hi,

Do you put Stochastic DiNapoli on Daily Chart?

What trading hours you consider most suitable for this system??
  • #4,571
  • Jan 10, 2009 9:11am Jan 10, 2009 9:11am
Quote
thx for that doc.

It is very good.

I have one question. Do we scalp the market with this method, or should we hold the trade as long as we can? Coz from what I have observed, there might be a 1,2,3 break but price go back above the 1, and later go down again.

So should we protect our profits when we already make 20 pips?

Give your comments. Thanks

To answer your questions, the entries and exits with KTM are very precise. No scalping....Target always equals total at risk pips.

As far as how to protect profits once in a trade, well that is kind of up to you. Harold uses the most recent S/R and watches how price reacts to it. If price slices right through for example you hold for your original target. If price bounces off S/R then you have to closely observe and make some discretionary decisions.

Personally, after being up more than 12 or 13 pips on a 20+ pip target will not take a loss, I will always get out with +1 if possible.

DS
  • #4,572
  • Jan 10, 2009 9:24am Jan 10, 2009 9:24am
Quote
This is a simple, easy to understand system. It does take some time to develop some judgement to be able to recognize the best setups, tho.

One thing I am still not clear on, is why is there some arbitrary number of pips that you should use for the max risk on the pullback?

For instance, why is it acceptable to take a trade if the pullback is say, 20 pips, but not acceptable if the pullback is 25 pips? I know you have to draw the line somewhere, but in terms of risk, you can manage it by using smaller lot size.

Is it because any larger...

Hi pistol, not trying to speak for Harold but having sat in numerous chats and conversed and traded with him I can say the rules as developed have come from experience; Including the rule that we take no trade if the at risk pips is more than 24. That is not an arbitrary number, Harold is a professional trader and developed this system by trading it over time. He trades this system and this alone...I think.

On a 5m time frame the probability of getting more than 24 pips into profit on a momentum move decreases significantly. I think others have adapted the TP to suit them using trailers and sell half at + 10 and let the rest run with a trail. That just is not the way Harold does it....

I would say try some of your ideas and make KTM your own. Remember, Harold doubled his money in 2008, and my guess is now that his at risk is up to 3% in 2009 he will double his money at least twice....Nothing to sneeze at.

DS
  • #4,573
  • Jan 10, 2009 12:07pm Jan 10, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting PistolDave

One thing I am still not clear on, is why is there some arbitrary number of pips that you should use for the max risk on the pullback?

For instance, why is it acceptable to take a trade if the pullback is say, 20 pips, but not acceptable if the pullback is 25 pips? I know you have to draw the line somewhere, but in terms of risk, you can manage it by using smaller lot size.

I just want to echo what deepsouth said, because exactly this point also gave me thought for quite a while.

It is not a question of the risk you are assuming. The issue is the probability of your reward being reached. Smaller distances have a higher probability of being reached than larger distances. Think of it like trying to forecast the weather. You will have a higher hit rate of forecasting the weather in half an hour, than in 3 days time. 20 pips is where harold intuitively feels the best hit rate can be achieved & his empirical results say that this assumption is working very well for him.
  • #4,574
  • Jan 10, 2009 4:21pm Jan 10, 2009 4:21pm
ok let me verify a few things if daily is say up i go to 5 minute chart and wait for price to trend down at least 30+ pips then look for 123 the reason for the hard stop and target is you have to draw the line somewhere and just as the other fellow said the probability of hitting target is what it is all about. when deciding on that number during normal times a trend on 5 minute chart was about 50 pips so to take just a pip below half seemed acceptable to me to be my max. Now i traded last year at 3% per trade this year 5% the reason 103 wins and 36 losses has given me enough reason to increase. the question of trailing stops to me is foolish and heres why its not and i repeat its not about pips its about money!!! money is collected everytime you hit the target so if you trail and say take 5 pips profit and then it goes down and hits target you dont make the intended 3% or whatever your % is per trade. its either a win lose or breakeven think of this if you had 5 wins a month at 5% you would double your acct every 3 months heres an example start with 1000 and in 3 months its 2000 3 more months its 4000 3 more months and its 8000 and finally 3 more months and its 1600 my rules are very specific and i adhere to them vigorously. REMEMBER PLAN THE TRADE THEN TRADE THE PLAN!!!
  • #4,575
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:37am Jan 11, 2009 11:37am
Tonights trade considerations are: E/J and E/U short ,G/U long.
  • #4,576
  • Jan 11, 2009 12:56pm Jan 11, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting harold4x
ok let me verify a few things if daily is say up i go to 5 minute chart and wait for price to trend down at least 30+ pips then look for 123 the reason for the hard stop and target is you have to draw the line somewhere and just as the other fellow said the probability of hitting target is what it is all about. when deciding on that number during normal times a trend on 5 minute chart was about 50 pips so to take just a pip below half seemed acceptable to me to be my max. Now i traded last year at 3% per trade this year 5% the reason 103 wins and...
Hi Harold,

There is one thing I admire about you... No matter how many times someone comes up with some way to make your strategy "better" you never let them throw you off course. I should know, I have tried too.

They keep looking for a better way...

... and you just keep on making money!

Keep on keepin' on. That's you Harold.

There are very few times when you can have much confidence in which way price will move in forex trading. You have identified one pattern that works.

Thanks for explaining (again and again).
Dave
  • #4,577
  • Jan 11, 2009 2:09pm Jan 11, 2009 2:09pm
Hi
I like the idea MM being say 3% of your total pot of say 10,000 on a
mini account but what should be my maximum leverage 20.1 or 30.1
  • #4,578
  • Jan 11, 2009 4:10pm Jan 11, 2009 4:10pm
Quoting PistolDave
Hi Harold,

There is one thing I admire about you... No matter how many times someone comes up with some way to make your strategy "better" you never let them throw you off course. I should know, I have tried too.

They keep looking for a better way...

... and you just keep on making money!

Keep on keepin' on. That's you Harold.

There are very few times when you can have much confidence in which way price will move in forex trading. You have identified one pattern that works.
.
Thanks for explaining (again and again).
Dave...

Very True...
Hej.
  • #4,579
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:17pm Jan 11, 2009 10:17pm
A winning E/U short trade tonight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUDUSD 5 Min.GIF Size: 31 KB
  • #4,580
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:20pm Jan 11, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting fxpivots
A winning E/U short trade tonight.
This chart is not correct for tonights trade
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