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Non-Farm Payroll Observation

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 7, 2005 5:23pm Oct 7, 2005 5:23pm
Since I started practice trading in my demo account with the non-farm
payroll for the last 3 months that the trend of the EUR/USD continued
in the direction from the previous night's trading after the announce-
ment was made. Does this indicate insider information?
  • #2
  • Oct 7, 2005 5:59pm Oct 7, 2005 5:59pm
Quoting mmills4x
Does this indicate insider information?
nah we dont have to deal with insiders in forex. unless greenspan is out there trying to make a buck the pattern you are noticing may just be smart investors, or it may not even be statistically significant.

btw, did you see this thread...
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=2528&
Relax and be happy.
  • #3
  • Oct 7, 2005 6:23pm Oct 7, 2005 6:23pm
Quoting mmills4x
Since I started practice trading in my demo account with the non-farm
payroll for the last 3 months that the trend of the EUR/USD continued
in the direction from the previous night's trading after the announce-
ment was made. Does this indicate insider information?
As far as I can see EUR/USD moved today opposite to the previous day's trading.
  • #4
  • Oct 7, 2005 7:27pm Oct 7, 2005 7:27pm
Quoting mmills4x
Since I started practice trading in my demo account with the non-farm
payroll for the last 3 months that the trend of the EUR/USD continued
in the direction from the previous night's trading after the announce-
ment was made. Does this indicate insider information?
Where do you see that mmills? Asian open (7:00 PM EST) or the Singapore open (9:00 PM)?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #5
  • Oct 7, 2005 7:41pm Oct 7, 2005 7:41pm
The EUR/USD peaked 10/6 at about 2:30 pm EST at approx. 1.220 and
then started a downtrend from there to approx. 1.2145 just before
the non-farm payroll announcement, and then after the announce-
ment, the pair continued to slide to a low of approx. 1.2100. In
my previous post, I meant to say that from my previous observations
of the non-farm payroll, that the trend starting off from either
the previous day high or low usually continued in the same direction
after the announcment of the non-farm payroll - not the overall
trend of the day.
  • #6
  • Oct 7, 2005 8:00pm Oct 7, 2005 8:00pm
Merlins Quote:
nah we dont have to deal with insiders in forex. unless greenspan is out there trying to make a buck the pattern you are noticing may just be smart investors, or it may not even be statistically significant.

The market forecast was for the non-farm payroll was -150K, so from a
fundamental perspective, it would seem like the EUR/USD would have
continued to increase from the 10/6 high, instead of decrease as it
did. It is well known that there is insider info. in the stock market arena,
if not, why are there frequently significant purchases of either calls/puts
just before a takeover? So, if there are insiders in stocks/options,
why not in forex, where the stakes are much higher?
  • #7
  • Oct 8, 2005 1:55pm Oct 8, 2005 1:55pm
Quoting mmills4x
Merlins Quote:
nah we dont have to deal with insiders in forex. unless greenspan is out there trying to make a buck the pattern you are noticing may just be smart investors, or it may not even be statistically significant.

The market forecast was for the non-farm payroll was -150K, so from a
fundamental perspective, it would seem like the EUR/USD would have
continued to increase from the 10/6 high, instead of decrease as it
did. It is well known that there is insider info. in the stock market arena,
if not, why are there frequently significant purchases of either calls/puts
just before a takeover? So, if there are insiders in stocks/options,
why not in forex, where the stakes are much higher?
yes of course there are insiders in the stock market. i said there are no insiders in Forex. the banks are kind of insiders, but even they dont know anymore than the other banks. there may be some corrupt (and brave) government officials who act on insider information, but its not enough to move the market (like it is with stocks).
Relax and be happy.
  • #8
  • Oct 8, 2005 10:25pm Oct 8, 2005 10:25pm
Quoting mmills4x

The market forecast was for the non-farm payroll was -150K, so from a
fundamental perspective, it would seem like the EUR/USD would have
continued to increase from the 10/6 high, instead of decrease as it
did. It is well known that there is insider info. in the stock market arena,
if not, why are there frequently significant purchases of either calls/puts
just before a takeover? So, if there are insiders in stocks/options,
why not in forex, where the stakes are much higher?
The price will stay with in structure reguardless of the news. A corrective retrace was needed after a 233 pip impulse wave such as what we saw.

1st hurricane the dollar fell alot. 2nd hurricane dollar rose.

The insiders in the market are the ones in tune with its wave structure.
I took that short trade from 1.2185 to 1.2100. I didn't post it cause it is against trend. I even told a friend to do it and he didn't belive me.



Dave
  • #9
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:31pm Oct 27, 2011 6:31pm
As I predicted earlier the last NFP led to a quick washout and then the monster rally. Long AUD has been very good to me.
  • #10
  • Last Post: Nov 18, 2011 5:24am Nov 18, 2011 5:24am
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