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Part Time Wealth Building System - "Open-Close Trending"

  • #61
  • Mar 15, 2007 2:01pm Mar 15, 2007 2:01pm
Awaiting for your view.
  • #62
  • Mar 15, 2007 2:05pm Mar 15, 2007 2:05pm
Techicals or Fundamentals for short term trades? Is worth debatle topic, let us post your views.
  • #63
  • Mar 15, 2007 2:12pm Mar 15, 2007 2:12pm
Thanks driftwood
I used to add it from the navigator window and it didn't show these options but using insert>indicators menu certainly did
  • #64
  • Mar 15, 2007 2:36pm Mar 15, 2007 2:36pm
Quoting altapowder
I just created an EA using the exact entry and exit rules and did a back test and it got whipped to death.

1/1/2006 to 12/31/2006
574 total trades
81 Profitable (14% winners)

Total PIPS = (-8284)

Now it did make some really good trades (one as high as 498 pip profit) but the whip back and forth was way too much. What could we do to filter these out?
Just wondering how far back you could test to see if this loses consistently.
If it is consistent and you did the opposite = BIG MONEY!
I would be more than willing to accept a 500+ DD to make 8K pips per year!
Could you please test your EA further back? Thanks in advance.
  • #65
  • Mar 15, 2007 4:54pm Mar 15, 2007 4:54pm
77 open lwma, 50 close lwma. Short when 50 crosses below 77, and long when 50 crosses above 77.

Quoting mrtrader
Hi tk and all,
I follow and try some of the systems in this great forum but what I like in tk's systems is that they are 100% thecnical. And this one looks realy good.
Thanks a lot tk. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

eagle4x , can you explain what do you mean by these crossovers?
Is it high, low or close on the two of them? One low and the other high?
Thanks
  • #66
  • Mar 15, 2007 6:10pm Mar 15, 2007 6:10pm
Quoting drayco
Just wondering how far back you could test to see if this loses consistently.
If it is consistent and you did the opposite = BIG MONEY!
I would be more than willing to accept a 500+ DD to make 8K pips per year!
Could you please test your EA further back? Thanks in advance.
I was studying the reverse concept of this system since the whipsaws are far more common than the trend (but the trends are usually big pips). Basically buying and selling between the MA's. I have been experimenting with adding 25 pip levels to the high and low MA's as it seems that the range seems to fall inbetween this range the most.

Perhaps an EA to test this would be interesting. Not sure what to optimize the stop at when it heads for a trend. Perhaps go for an trend entry when it is 25 pips above/below the MA?

A good month to study whipsaw behaviour is Jan 2006. Really bad month for whipsaws.

Another way to filter the new system is to find the trend of the last 3 days and then go with the reverse. i have been working on a system for this for a long time, just can't find a good exit strategy yet. But 3 day trend reversal is extremely common (close to close).
  • #67
  • Mar 15, 2007 6:43pm Mar 15, 2007 6:43pm
Quoting mikeh3855
TK,

With all due respect, how could you manage to extract 125 pips a week with a yearly loss of 8284 pips? That doesn't add up. What am I missing? My backtests also show umerciful whipsawing. As indicated, there are some nice runs. But the beating in between is unbearable.
Agree.

Along with what Mikeh and 'Homer' stated earlier, I have checked this out and although there is the odd patch of nice trends, it doesn't seem to make up for the excessive consolidation periods that would fry you.
All the MM in the world (which you should be practicing anyway) will not save you from a negative pip earner system.
I ask questions on how long this has been tested etc etc and it's funny but they don't get replied to. Thats OK, I do my own research anyway but God help those that blindly follow in because they have a day or two of good results or because someone else says they made 2000 pips in 2 weeks.

To his own admission, TK has only traded this 2 weeks (which was a 'perfect' market for this) and 2 weeks is hardly enough to prove a systems robust nature.
This methodology is dangerous because it is not much more than a moving average crossover system which when most novice traders first see appears to be the holy grail simplistic answer to trading. Yes, in a clean swinging market, trend to trend, they will work for a short period but just when you are settling into your comfort zone that all is fine in the world, this thing will whip your account to zero.
I'm not saying this cant work as a Tool but it MUST NOT BE your entire system.
If TK is making it work (and I mean really making it work - 2 weeks is not proof of anything) then it is because he is using additional technical analysis to filter channel periods.
Money Management is not a filter people! It is just a temporary stay of execution if you have a crap system.

FxN
  • #68
  • Mar 15, 2007 8:07pm Mar 15, 2007 8:07pm
Quoting fxnorth
Agree.

Along with what Mikeh and 'Homer' stated earlier, I have checked this out and although there is the odd patch of nice trends, it doesn't seem to make up for the excessive consolidation periods that would fry you.
All the MM in the world (which you should be practicing anyway) will not save you from a negative pip earner system.
I ask questions on how long this has been tested etc etc and it's funny but they don't get replied to. Thats OK, I do my own research anyway but God help those that blindly follow in because they have a day or two of good results or because someone else says they made 2000 pips in 2 weeks.

To his own admission, TK has only traded this 2 weeks (which was a 'perfect' market for this) and 2 weeks is hardly enough to prove a systems robust nature.
This methodology is dangerous because it is not much more than a moving average crossover system which when most novice traders first see appears to be the holy grail simplistic answer to trading. Yes, in a clean swinging market, trend to trend, they will work for a short period but just when you are settling into your comfort zone that all is fine in the world, this thing will whip your account to zero.
I'm not saying this cant work as a Tool but it MUST NOT BE your entire system.
If TK is making it work (and I mean really making it work - 2 weeks is not proof of anything) then it is because he is using additional technical analysis to filter channel periods.
Money Management is not a filter people! It is just a temporary stay of execution if you have a crap system.

FxN
FX - You have yet to share your system or ideas with the forum. We all know what you don't like and I for one would like to hear about your successful trading methodology.

Tim
  • #69
  • Mar 15, 2007 8:46pm Mar 15, 2007 8:46pm
Quoting tim4kaye
FX - You have yet to share your system or ideas with the forum. We all know what you don't like and I for one would like to hear about your successful trading methodology.

Tim
Tim/Forum members

I'm not sure what I find sadder, the fact that this type of response was predictable or that you take my input as negative.
For a start, why say I don't LIKE the methodology for I never said that. I said it was unwise and dangerous and is historically proven to be so. Why not take the input as an actual contribution because believe it or not, it comes from a wealth of experience.
You speak as though I wish to sabotage your efforts to become rich keeping the 'wondrous WMA method' from you all. I think if you look honestly at yourself, you will realize the market is big enough for us all and the last thing I want is for others to not succeed. It would be far more selfish of me to pass by this thread and think "wow, what a huge mistake, they are going to burn money!" and then move on without saying a word.
You attack because it's not what you wish to hear.
Oh, and by the way, I do contribute (additionally) even if you do not take helpful warnings as not a worthy contribution.

My system you ask? Yes, that was the next question I expected and you are going to hate the answer. Trading is a personal journey, fraught with hardship and much work. It doesn't come easy and it isn't handed out has a freebie on forums especially after I have busted my ass and poured thousands of $ into it over 4 years. This being said however, anyone is welcome to draw on my knowledge and ask about pointers for their own system and if it so happens to cross paths with what I have done, then I am not going to steer them away from it.
Sadly, forums are full of people who I liken to baby birds, with their mouths open, constantly squawking, hoping that somebody else do the hard yards and drop that magic money making system in. Sorry, but a bit of effort has to be shown first.
Your comment and attitude is why I hardly bother to show up at forums.

FxN
  • #70
  • Mar 15, 2007 8:54pm Mar 15, 2007 8:54pm
Quoting fxnorth
Tim/Forum members

I'm not sure what I find sadder, the fact that this type of response was predictable or that you take my input as negative.
For a start, why say I don't LIKE the methodology for I never said that. I said it was unwise and dangerous and is historically proven to be so. Why not take the input as an actual contribution because believe it or not, it comes from a wealth of experience.
You speak as though I wish to sabotage your efforts to become rich keeping the 'wondrous WMA method' from you all. I think if you look honestly at yourself, you will realize the market is big enough for us all and the last thing I want is for others to not succeed. It would be far more selfish of me to pass by this thread and think "wow, what a huge mistake, they are going to burn money!" and then move on without saying a word.
You attack because it's not what you wish to hear.
Oh, and by the way, I do contribute (additionally) even if you do not take helpful warnings as not a worthy contribution.

My system you ask? Yes, that was the next question I expected and you are going to hate the answer. Trading is a personal journey, fraught with hardship and much work. It doesn't come easy and it isn't handed out has a freebie on forums especially after I have busted my ass and poured thousands of $ into it over 4 years. This being said however, anyone is welcome to draw on my knowledge and ask about pointers for their own system and if it so happens to cross paths with what I have done, then I am not going to steer them away from it.
Sadly, forums are full of people who I liken to baby birds, with their mouths open, constantly squawking, hoping that somebody else do the hard yards and drop that magic money making system in. Sorry, but a bit of effort has to be shown first.
Your comment and attitude is why I hardly bother to show up at forums.

FxN

LOL.............. you are real piece of work.
  • #71
  • Mar 15, 2007 9:11pm Mar 15, 2007 9:11pm
To play devil's advocate, a job which I enjoy.

Well, as we are all damn well privy to and certain of, we all know that past performances are merely past performances and no one knows how well or bad things will turn in the future. For all we know TK's set up could turn him into the next Soros in the coming year, or it could turn him into the next trailer park king. However, to merely dismiss what he's come up with as a mere fluke and misgiving would be erring with the side of ignorance. Hell, just by "playing" with his system this afternoon I've booked fifty one pips on USD/JPY which is a nice fat paycheck if you've the right account.

This is the great thing about forums, is that you can see what someone else has to say and then go back and modify it to what you think would work best. Personally I'm more into the idea of taking TK's idea and moulding it towards what I think might work better instead of bitching about it on a soapbox. Take it from Bagovino and the "if you can make it better, share it and help others" idea.

On a third note, thank you TKimble for sharing your ideas with us as you have definitely given me at least three different trading methods that I have used as template towards what I feel is my most comfortable methods for me to be trading with. I will be the first to admit that I do not trade the exact same system as TK, but thanks to him I have something to work with, and for that I am at least 300 pips a week grateful.
  • #72
  • Mar 15, 2007 9:16pm Mar 15, 2007 9:16pm
Okay, the flame war stops right here and right now! Don't make me have to start deleting posts.

BTW, I happen to agree with what FxN is contributing. Having gone down a similar road myself, I know from first hand experience that what FxN is saying is the truth. Newbies should heed his observations.

Dial
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  • #73
  • Mar 15, 2007 9:27pm Mar 15, 2007 9:27pm
Also BTW, I happen to admire the hell out of tkimble. His systems are sound, and he has expressed a great deal of wisdom that I favor.

That said though, I suggest checking out this system with extra caution. The reason I say that is because I traded a nearly identical system several years ago that vomited pips all over the place for a few months, but then it turned and went into a drawdown to hell. I see many similarities here, so please be careful.
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  • #74
  • Mar 15, 2007 9:37pm Mar 15, 2007 9:37pm
Getting back to the system..

First because i haven't posted - Thanks TK for your systems. If there's one thing i've learnt in 2 years is that Strategies can be argued and debated on for many months, but i think thats what makes the trading journey all the more interesting. Always things to learn and discuss.. and I for one appreciate your thoughts and ideas.

In relation to this particular strategy, has anyone thought much about exit strategies? Like others stated the whipsawing action is hard to deny but this does not make this system unusable, it just creates a challenge. I thought about closing half the position at a set TP point(this would be depending on pair and volatility) and then aiming the other half to run, or 2TP (~double whatever first TP was at)

For example GPB/JPY

2 days ago (according to my charts)
Entry at High WMA 225.10
Stop at Low WMA 224.40 (perhaps this shoulda been S&R but i didn't)
Entry at High WMA 225.03
TP1(1/2 position) at 226.03
TP2(1/2 position) at 227.03

Thats the trade i made which netted 90 pips and i was happy.
Just throwing some ideas out there.

Cheers,


PS It just hit low WMA 226.45 an hour ago, maybe i'll go short....
  • #75
  • Mar 15, 2007 10:01pm Mar 15, 2007 10:01pm
Quoting diallist
Okay, the flame war stops right here and right now! Don't make me have to start deleting posts.

BTW, I happen to agree with what FxN is contributing. Having gone down a similar road myself, I know from first hand experience that what FxN is saying is the truth. Newbies should heed his observations.

Dial
TY Diallist

Like yourself, I'm only trying to assist others from making mistakes that I (and others) have personally benefited from. If some members cant see that and wish to flame out their accounts thats ok.

When I first started out, a wise old trader warned me of MA crossover and how it was the most common newbie perceived 'Holy Grail' answer. Like Diallist so aptly recounted and as was likened by the wise old Trader, "In very little time, the Market will take your Moving average crossover from Holy Grail to Poison Chalice.

A wise person learns from others mistakes.

FxN
  • #76
  • Mar 15, 2007 10:20pm Mar 15, 2007 10:20pm
Quoting Blackinc
Getting back to the system..

First because i haven't posted - Thanks TK for your systems. If there's one thing i've learnt in 2 years is that Strategies can be argued and debated on for many months, but i think thats what makes the trading journey all the more interesting. Always things to learn and discuss.. and I for one appreciate your thoughts and ideas.

In relation to this particular strategy, has anyone thought much about exit strategies? Like others stated the whipsawing action is hard to deny but this does not make this system unusable, it just creates a challenge. I thought about closing half the position at a set TP point(this would be depending on pair and volatility) and then aiming the other half to run, or 2TP (~double whatever first TP was at)

For example GPB/JPY

2 days ago (according to my charts)
Entry at High WMA 225.10
Stop at Low WMA 224.40 (perhaps this shoulda been S&R but i didn't)
Entry at High WMA 225.03
TP1(1/2 position) at 226.03
TP2(1/2 position) at 227.03

Thats the trade i made which netted 90 pips and i was happy.
Just throwing some ideas out there.

Cheers,


PS It just hit low WMA 226.45 an hour ago, maybe i'll go short....
Welcome to the Factory Blackinc! I like your attitude.

Now excuse me while I open this trapdoor and drop out of tkimbles thread so friendly debate can resume.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #77
  • Mar 15, 2007 11:29pm Mar 15, 2007 11:29pm
Quoting diallist
BTW, I happen to agree with what FxN is contributing. Having gone down a similar road myself, I know from first hand experience that what FxN is saying is the truth. Newbies should heed his observations.

Dial

Dial, Can you tell me what you mean? There is much of what FxN said that is correct but i do not agree about how these kinds of systems do not work. Have been trading something very similiar to this for a substantial while, and it works very well. Very, very well.

Just confused from your statement.

Thanks...

Jim No
  • #78
  • Mar 16, 2007 12:49am Mar 16, 2007 12:49am
.... that says it all! You know how to rake in the pips. I prefer the Daily though. IMO
  • #79
  • Mar 16, 2007 1:00am Mar 16, 2007 1:00am
i've been looking over this new system, we need a filter for the ranging periods. how about adx, no entries if it's under 24? there will still be stops, but probably less than without adx.
or if someone can think of a more suitable indicator for showing the trend/range, please do post about it.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #80
  • Mar 16, 2007 2:42am Mar 16, 2007 2:42am
Quoting Scrat
i've been looking over this new system, we need a filter for the ranging periods. how about adx, no entries if it's under 24? there will still be stops, but probably less than without adx.
or if someone can think of a more suitable indicator for showing the trend/range, please do post about it.
How about this. After three consecutive losses, go flat. Everyone forgets that flat is a position too. Go back to Oct-Sep 06 and look at this system. A horrible range for many days. After three losses, go flat and then use your EYEBALLS to watch for a resumption of volatility. Seems like everyone wants silly indicators to do all the work for them. The best filter of all is one's brain.
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