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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,581
  • Dec 19, 2008 4:16pm Dec 19, 2008 4:16pm
Where do you guys see this one going from here - to form a fourth peak, or all the way down to 1.05-1.07?
  • #2,582
  • Jan 5, 2009 9:33am Jan 5, 2009 9:33am
I am hoplessly bullish this pair.
The Canada bulls still think that oil is headed back up. They keep driving this pair down which would indicate there is a fair amount of future oil price hikes already priced in.
The world economy remains mired in deleveraging without any meaningfull source of economic strength to allow the banking system to start lending again.
The Fed and ECB think they can supplant the private economy in this category. They may mitigate the fallout, but only falling commodity prices to sustainable levels that real world customers can afford is going to produce a bottom.

The idea that inflation will suddenly reignite when most of the world can hardly meet their bills, should prove error filled over time.
  • #2,583
  • Jan 5, 2009 9:38am Jan 5, 2009 9:38am
Quoting foto
I am hoplessly bullish this pair.
The Canada bulls still think that oil is headed back up. They keep driving this pair down which would indicate there is a fair amount of future oil price hikes already priced in.
The world economy remains mired in deleveraging without any meaningfull source of economic strength to allow the banking system to start lending again.
The Fed and ECB think they can supplant the private economy in this category. They may mitigate the fallout, but only falling commodity prices to sustainable levels that real world customers...
Hi .This thread has been totally desolate lately.The usdcad has been very volatile and after a decisive move down since the fed cut,it has been pretty indecisive.
  • #2,584
  • Jan 5, 2009 10:00am Jan 5, 2009 10:00am
It is a hard pair to trade for direction. Real world circumstances
keeps getting overode by the financial world asset allocation models.
But in the long run financials will run out of funds, before the fundamentals turn (my opinion).
A lot of the move into Canada has been by soverign reserves. They have drawn down available US dollar holdings by a fair amount already. So countries like China which have been the bugaboo arround the USD for some time will become irrelevant in the forseeable future.
I am using USD/Canada reversals to build position for the long haul.

This world economic train wreck is not going away in the blink of an eye, even with a new US administration.
  • #2,585
  • Jan 5, 2009 3:57pm Jan 5, 2009 3:57pm
I am long from 1.1887 but still questioning my reasoning here... there's some upside to be had once the Middle East turmoil calms a bit, but BoC may well keep the rate on hold next time, in which case there is no real reason for this pair to be so high above parity. That being said, if these levels hold we may be witnessing a short term double-bottom, and if not - 1.15 is the next level to watch. This pair has shown to be capable of incredible volatility on absolutely no real news, to the tune of hundreds of pips within a short time frame... wild short term trades can be achieved here with proper timing and a bit of luck.
  • #2,586
  • Jan 5, 2009 4:26pm Jan 5, 2009 4:26pm
Quoting Subdude
This pair has shown to be capable of incredible volatility on absolutely no real news, to the tune of hundreds of pips within a short time frame... wild short term trades can be achieved here with proper timing and a bit of luck.
Tell me about it.Ive made a bundle but given back almost half of it over the last two weeks.There is no sense putting hard stops in this pair.Huge volatility.Extremely profitable but deadly.
  • #2,587
  • Jan 5, 2009 4:32pm Jan 5, 2009 4:32pm
I will go short if the price goes below 1.1850 which is a little lower than the low of the previous 4 hr candle. It does not look like this candle will get close to that low. I still see a downside to this pair. 2 nice short candles on the daily tell me to stay short. There is some support that would need to be broken at 1.1856 to aim for the 1.6000 range.
  • #2,588
  • Jan 5, 2009 4:45pm Jan 5, 2009 4:45pm
Quoting ferndog
I will go short if the price goes below 1.1850 which is a little lower than the low of the previous 4 hr candle. It does not look like this candle will get close to that low. I still see a downside to this pair. 2 nice short candles on the daily tell me to stay short. There is some support that would need to be broken at 1.1856 to aim for the 1.6000 range.
Good thinking.The only problem could be that we've been to the1.1810 area and bounced up pretty hard.Would want to make sure that double bottom scenario that subdude mentioned is ruled out.Maybe wait until it breaks through that?Anyways good luck.This ride can get pretty bumpy.
  • #2,589
  • Jan 5, 2009 5:15pm Jan 5, 2009 5:15pm
No doubt trader. Very volatile pair. On the sidelines for now. Looking for a nice place to enter. No hurry. Let the market come to me i think the saying goes. gl
  • #2,590
  • Jan 6, 2009 12:52pm Jan 6, 2009 12:52pm
The extreme volatility may have to do with the disrupted interbank market which leaves all currency pairs under speculative attack. Witness to the move today in GBP since 7 am est.
Sooner or later the central banks will have their fill with the culprit and take them to the cleaners. Messes up international trade too much at a time when
the world is walking the edge of a cliff.
  • #2,591
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:58pm Jan 6, 2009 4:58pm
I'm short on the four hour close at 1.1950 below the daily trendline, targeting 1.1350, 1.0950, and 1.0050. Oil just broke its downtrend line and there's no way it retests its lows. Stop at 1.2520...small lots.
  • #2,592
  • Jan 6, 2009 7:02pm Jan 6, 2009 7:02pm
Quoting hxcjf
Oil just broke its downtrend line and there's no way it retests its lows.
You are making a mistake if you are basing much of your UC trading strategy on assumptions about where oil is going. I don't see oil going much higher from these levels soon, as this is merely an emotional reaction to the recent geopolitical turmoil.
  • #2,593
  • Jan 7, 2009 10:33am Jan 7, 2009 10:33am
For those who think this pair is going up based upon a weakening economy.
This mornings crude oil is bullish.
Remember Paulson speaks at noon est. Should give the USD a pummeling and an opportunity to buy the USD/CAD on the selloff. Paulson has been a disaster for the USD in the past, no reason that won't change now.
  • #2,594
  • Jan 7, 2009 11:59pm Jan 7, 2009 11:59pm
Oil got slapped back to the curb where it belongs... which enabled me to close my UC long for some nice pips. Come to think of it, I was also short oil from 48.350 but put in too timid a closing order to get out at 46.400. Not a bad chunk of change, but boy did I ever leave more on the table! Not to worry though, I am massively short cable now and will ride this sucker down for what could be the biggest trade of my life.
  • #2,595
  • Jan 8, 2009 9:41am Jan 8, 2009 9:41am
Subdude hope you hung in there with the GBP trade. Its quite a ride but dailies look as if it is turning down again. Good luck
  • #2,596
  • Jan 9, 2009 6:30pm Jan 9, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting foto
Subdude hope you hung in there with the GBP trade. Its quite a ride but dailies look as if it is turning down again. Good luck
Thanks, I did hold on averaging down and using the $ to hedge by buying other currencies temporarily to offset the unrealized loss (like Euro/Swissy/Loonie). Since some time last year, my broker only margins one side of the trade, e.g. if you're short GBP/USD so that you've got +$100K, then you can sell 100K USD/CHF with no margin impact.

So no overall gain yet, but I believe next week will be bullish for the dollar again.
  • #2,597
  • Jan 13, 2009 4:38pm Jan 13, 2009 4:38pm
For the fifth time in one month, it has failed to break 1.24! Seems pretty bearish to me.
  • #2,598
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:45pm Jan 14, 2009 4:45pm
It has broken the 1.24 resistance.. Will buy on Dips... but looks like we will see 1.29 soon.. Technicals call for a retractment but it resume the uptrend..
  • #2,599
  • Jan 20, 2009 12:30pm Jan 20, 2009 12:30pm
Any one see USDCAD dipping to 1.24xx by tonight? The Market was pricing in a bigger cut of 0.75, but only got a 0.50. Oil is up, Gold is up!!
  • #2,600
  • Jan 20, 2009 2:06pm Jan 20, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting hantousha
Oil is up
Only the front month is up, due to its expiration today, all of the back dated months are down 3.6 - 6% at this moment.

Looks as if though USD/CAD is destined for a 4th attempt at the 1.30 level.
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