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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #151,641
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:36pm Jan 6, 2009 3:36pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Look at what happened to the Dollar once the Fed started cutting rates aggressively; it strengthened.
strengthened? dollar got weak i think
  • #151,642
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:36pm Jan 6, 2009 3:36pm
Quoting karmostaji
Target missed by 15 pips lol but I've managed nearly 10% in 1 day with good MM
hi karmo,

as you are the one who broke 139 level downside, so I've to ask u: I think as 139 is now broken upside so I'm expecting at least 300 pips (around 142) up before fall, what do you think?

thanks,
  • #151,643
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:37pm Jan 6, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting pepsi
hi karmo,

as you are the one who broke 139 level downside, so I've to ask u: I think as 139 is now broken upside so I'm expecting at least 300 pips (around 142) up before fall, what do you think?

thanks,
if 139 acts as support now again, and we break 141 tomorrow then 144 (weekly gann) is on the table.

Keep it simple
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #151,644
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:40pm Jan 6, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting fortaleza
strengthened? dollar got weak i think
No, it didn't. Look at the EU and GU charts. EU fell from 160 to 124 over the period of Fed cuts while Eurozone stalled. Similarly GU fell from over 2 to 143 while the UK cut much less aggressively.

I'm not saying I know for certain, just saying that cutting rates does not necessarily mean a weaker currency.
  • #151,645
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:40pm Jan 6, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting karmostaji
if 139 acts as support now again, and we break 141 tomorrow then 144 (weekly gann) is on the table.

Keep it simple
  • #151,646
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:41pm Jan 6, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Look at what happened to the Dollar once the Fed started cutting rates aggressively; it strengthened.
You kidding ? it the EURO that got weak. Look at gold uptrend. And just wait a little until the billions of $ of bailouts begin to circulate in the street . $ willl lose it value then massively. UK economy will show us a worst case scenario in the comming month. I cant believe some ppl think that crisis is over.
  • #151,647
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:41pm Jan 6, 2009 3:41pm
good to see you back 10k post karmster

got the chance to take a look into the pdf i sent you?
  • #151,648
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:44pm Jan 6, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting Terminale
You kidding ? it the EURO that got weak. Look at gold uptrend. And just wait a little until the billions of $ of bailouts begin to circulate in the street . $ willl lose it value then massively. UK economy will show us a worst case scenario in the comming month. I cant believe some ppl think that crisis is over.
I'm not sure i'm being clear enough. While the Fed were busy cutting rates and Eurozone did nothing, the Dollar gained massively against it. That flies in the face of conventional market wisdom.
  • #151,649
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:47pm Jan 6, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting Terminale
You kidding ? it the EURO that got weak. Look at gold uptrend. And just wait a little until the billions of $ of bailouts begin to circulate in the street . $ willl lose it value then massively. UK economy will show us a worst case scenario in the comming month. I cant believe some ppl think that crisis is over.
the money won't circulate in the streets and main street will be the last to have any advantages of it. the so called "bailout" was mainly printing money for foreign investors and lenders, mostly out of the asian area, who demanded a revenue due to decades of usd holdings due ot the fact that the usd can only survive by doing that and importing.
  • #151,650
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:48pm Jan 6, 2009 3:48pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
good to see you back 10k post karmster

got the chance to take a look into the pdf i sent you?
Thanks Dr.

Actually no haven't had the time for anything, been following my wife shopping all day long everyday lol
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #151,651
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:48pm Jan 6, 2009 3:48pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
I'm not sure i'm being clear enough. While the Fed were busy cutting rates and Eurozone did nothing, the Dollar gained massively against it. That flies in the face of conventional market wisdom.
because it all is just a big fat game and the ones profitting most of it are helping the newswriters
  • #151,652
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:49pm Jan 6, 2009 3:49pm
Quoting karmostaji
Thanks Dr.

Actually no haven't had the time for anything, been following my wife shopping all day long everyday lol
hm, now that is a strange behavior for a wife
  • #151,653
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:49pm Jan 6, 2009 3:49pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
I'm not sure i'm being clear enough. While the Fed were busy cutting rates and Eurozone did nothing, the Dollar gained massively against it. That flies in the face of conventional market wisdom.
It gained Strengh because US was doing something then. But now all economies are in recession. Only Japan is still secure for now. All smart money have their money converted to either CHF or JPY. If you still belive in the stregth of the GBP for now. You fooling yourself. We will see a strong GBP in Summer. not now.
  • #151,654
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:53pm Jan 6, 2009 3:53pm
Quoting Terminale
It gained Strengh because US was doing something then. But now all economies are in recession. Only Japan is still secure for now. All smart money have their money converted to either CHF or JPY. If you still belive in the stregth of the GBP for now. You fooling yourself. We will see a strong GBP in Summer. not now.
Okey dokey, but do not come running to me if GBP gains after the BoE decision.

Good luck with your trades.
  • #151,655
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:57pm Jan 6, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting fortaleza
strengthened? dollar got weak i think

err have you looked at the DX recently ?????

they cannot cut rates any further ....

so what do you think will happen to USD ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,656
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:01pm Jan 6, 2009 4:01pm
Quoting malcolmb14
err have you looked at the DX recently ?????

they cannot cut rates any further ....

so what do you think will happen to USD ?
i dont know, i just took the fed rate cut as example.
eu shot up to 146. i'm not good in fundamentals, but why should not happen the same on gbp?

but im just unexperienced .. just begun forex
  • #151,657
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:04pm Jan 6, 2009 4:04pm
Quoting fortaleza
i dont know, i just took the fed rate cut as example.
eu shot up to 146. i'm not good in fundamentals, but why should not happen the same on gbp?

but im just unexperienced .. just begun forex
so begin learning to ignore fundies and do not try to make assumptions. their only purpose is to mislead you in every possible way, nothing else.
fundies are not thought for your advantage, trader!

learn chartreading and you are on the safe side.
  • #151,658
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:06pm Jan 6, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
so begin learning to ignore fundies and do not try to make assumptions. their only purpose is to mislead you in every possible way, nothing else.
fundies are not thought for your advantage, trader!

learn chartreading and you are on the safe side.
  • #151,659
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:12pm Jan 6, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting Terminale
It gained Strengh because US was doing something then. But now all economies are in recession. Only Japan is still secure for now. All smart money have their money converted to either CHF or JPY. If you still belive in the stregth of the GBP for now. You fooling yourself. We will see a strong GBP in Summer. not now.
500 pip off lows not that strong then.....????

the news today out of US crushed the USD.

rate cut factored in ....not that I bother with trying to guess fundies or even trade to them ... complete waste if time IMHO and a sure way to wipe out an account.

most countries have their issues .. fact is GBPUSD is still a carry trade even with a rate cut.

I just watch what the volume is up to ... gives me a clue.

right now I do not like the way the last 4 hour candle on GU is a low volume up candle with a wide spread. ...I may be tempted to enter an overnight short trade if price break 1.4900 on GU

In regards to GJ ... 140 there has been sellers hitting the market ... seems that way today also . This is top of channel. I am short off 140.50 and expecting retracement in Asia to 138 zone ... 90 % of time GJ retraces during Asian session.

I want to see the volume on the retracement to see if there are any interested sellers.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,660
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:16pm Jan 6, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting malcolmb14
500 pip off lows not that strong then.....????

the news today out of US crushed the USD.

rate cut factored in ....not that I bother with trying to guess fundies or even trade to them ... complete waste if time IMHO and a sure way to wipe out an account.

most countries have their issues .. fact is GBPUSD is still a carry trade even with a rate cut.

I just watch what the volume is up to ... gives me a clue.

right now I do not like the way the last 4 hour candle on GU is a low volume up candle with a wide spread. ...I may be tempted...
lol...careful with 240m after us during desert. some similar spotting on cheese led me to short that **ut last night and you know the outcome.
due to reasonable mm and risk management i needed to get my food from the soup kitchen today (not)
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