Joined Jan 2007
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Status: MTF Stochastics and Volume/Price
|1,133 Posts
I back tested Jan 2007....
Net Gain 1466 PIPS
4 Whipsaw actions (multiple losses)
....highest loss 146 pips over 5 trades
....typical individual trade loss about 30 pips
7 successful trades
....highest gain 504 pips
Total trades = 22
7 successful (62,466,148,504,374,230,126) = 1910 pips
15 losers = -411 pips
Risk/Reward = 1/4.6
Average gain per trade = 87 pips
Average loss per trade = 27 pips
Average Risk/Reward per trade = 1/3.2
Thanks very much TK. Looks great. For those who were asking, try this on a 4hr TF. The MAs naturally adjust because they are measuring agsinst that time frame. The stop and reverse is natually a little wider but I don't see why it wouldn't work. Some of the profit potentials look large.
I have to say I'm a fan of all Your systems TK, But this one takes the cake. Really looking forward to the EA. If it can consistently produce half as many pips as Spudfyres backtest for January consistently. Well be in Pip Central!!
Show Me The PIPS!!
Are you using only a 34 wma? So buy on one side and sell on the other, as opposed to having two smas?
Thanks.
Ignored
No i don't use SMAs, i use the highes and lows of the 34 wma. Will be looking at the 50 per TK's system which is what this thread is about. . Everything else is the same. Have looked at different ways to enter. Have 2 specific ways i am using now. Trying to see which one is the most practicle and easy. Will report to the thread on success. It is there to help minimize whipsaws as the direction changes. I think using the 50 WMA's will not generate as many false signals.
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Joined Dec 2006
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Status: Fundamental Technical Trader
|118 Posts
So does sleeping time affect this system much? I mean, it seems pretty important to adjust the limit orders every hour, so how does the fact that you won't be able to adjust the orders for around 8 hours of day affect things?
I just created an EA using the exact entry and exit rules and did a back test and it got whipped to death.
1/1/2006 to 12/31/2006
574 total trades
81 Profitable (14% winners)
Total PIPS = (-8284)
Now it did make some really good trades (one as high as 498 pip profit) but the whip back and forth was way too much. What could we do to filter these out?
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Joined Sep 2005
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Status: pip my ride
|507 Posts
I adjusted the lwma periods to 50/77 and the MA periods became crossovers. I did a rough calculation of the crossover signals since 01/07 and the net pips were 1750, with 7 wins (total 2550), 5 losses plus 1 current open loss (total 800). Largest win was 1200p, largest loss was 200p. Therefore, using crossovers (for the comparison period) produced approx. 300 more pips in about half the number of trades which resulted in less fees. Also, there is much less time involved in monitoring/placing the trades.
4 Whipsaw actions (multiple losses)
....highest loss 146 pips over 5 trades
....typical individual trade loss about 30 pips
7 successful trades
....highest gain 504 pips
Total trades = 22
7 successful (62,466,148,504,374,230,126) = 1910 pips
15 losers = -411 pips
Risk/Reward = 1/4.6
Average gain per trade = 87 pips
Average loss per trade = 27 pips
Average Risk/Reward per trade = 1/3.2
Hi tk and all,
I follow and try some of the systems in this great forum but what I like in tk's systems is that they are 100% thecnical. And this one looks realy good.
Thanks a lot tk. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
eagle4x , can you explain what do you mean by these crossovers?
Is it high, low or close on the two of them? One low and the other high?
Thanks
"It's choice - not chance - that determines your destiny"
I adjusted the lwma periods to 50/77 and the MA periods became crossovers. I did a rough calculation of the crossover signals since 01/07 and the net pips were 1750, with 7 wins (total 2550), 5 losses plus 1 current open loss (total 800). Largest win was 1200p, largest loss was 200p. Therefore, using crossovers (for the comparison period) produced approx. 300 more pips in about half the number of trades which resulted in less fees. Also, there is much less time involved in monitoring/placing the trades.
Ignored
Could you better explain your system, Eagle? Do you enter short when 50 crosses below 77 and long when 77 is on top? Do you enter with limit/pending orders? Do you still keep the MAs as LWMAs set to open/close? Or is this just for trend? I only ask because I have a system where you set your EMAs at 89 and 144, but this is only to determine trend--when 89 crosses 144 and is on the bottom, it means the trend is heading down while if the 89 is on top, the trend is headed up.
The following system is has by far been the most profitable system for me. It has captured 1700 GBP/JPY PIPS in the last two weeks through today.
Rules are likewise very simple but unlike the daily and weekly scalping systems, this system follows the trends:
1. Create 60 minute GBP/JPY bar chart
2. Create a 50 Period HIGH Linear Weighted Moving Average
3. Create a 50 Period LOW Linear Weighted Moving Average
4. Place LONG market entry order at the HIGH Moving Average
5. Place SHORT marekt entry order at the LOW Moving Average
6. Market entries occur at the exact moment that the price hits the market entry orders.
6. Use 50 PIP STOP
7. Adjust the LONG and SHORT market entry orders as the Moving Averages change.
8. Market can get choppy during transition from LONG to SHORT and vice versa.
That is it. Very simple. This system can be adapted to other markets but with smaller or larger Moving Averages.
Below is the current chart that I am trading from and I am currently up 320 PIPS today. Combine this system with the money management system and you will have a sure winner...
I just created an EA using the exact entry and exit rules and did a back test and it got whipped to death.
1/1/2006 to 12/31/2006
574 total trades
81 Profitable (14% winners)
Total PIPS = (-8284)
Now it did make some really good trades (one as high as 498 pip profit) but the whip back and forth was way too much. What could we do to filter these out?
Ignored
The idea is to average 125 PIPs of profit per week. This system will provide that and maybe more. I accept the whipsaw action becuase the system will still yield the 125 PIPs weekly. Focus on the Money Management. That is where you will make the money. Attached is the money management spreadsheet that I use for my demo accounts. You will see that I have weekly monetary goals. As long as I meet or exceed those goals, I do not care about the whipsawing. Whipsawing is part of the price that you must pay if you want to trade. Like taxes and freedom...
Is there any chance you could post a chart showing entries/exits over a given period, as seeing a chart makes it much easier to understand.
As I understand it ,once you are in the market lets say long.Your short entry order is trailing you at the lower MA , is this correct.
Also if you are long and the market retraces (after you have closed for profit taking) into the channel but bounces back long do you re-enter long or are you waiting for the short trade to be triggered.
How do you get into the market,at present the price is above the MA channel ?
Cheers.
I just created an EA using the exact entry and exit rules and did a back test and it got whipped to death.
1/1/2006 to 12/31/2006
574 total trades
81 Profitable (14% winners)
Total PIPS = (-8284)
Now it did make some really good trades (one as high as 498 pip profit) but the whip back and forth was way too much. What could we do to filter these out?
Ignored
TK,
With all due respect, how could you manage to extract 125 pips a week with a yearly loss of 8284 pips? That doesn't add up. What am I missing? My backtests also show umerciful whipsawing. As indicated, there are some nice runs. But the beating in between is unbearable.
With all due respect, how could you manage to extract 125 pips a week with a yearly loss of 8284 pips? That doesn't add up. What am I missing? My backtests also show umerciful whipsawing. As indicated, there are some nice runs. But the beating in between is unbearable.
