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VantagePoint discussion thread

Quoting Tango46
-----------------------------------------

I was shocked to learn that traderchat.com had gone 'off the air' as well. I had talked with Lane Mendelsohn (son of the Vantage Point founder & currently VP of Market Technologies) back about the time the site was getting started. I contacted him today when I saw your post <above> and asked 'what the heck happened'?? He clarified a couple of things:

(1) TraderChat.com is owned & operated by TradingEducation.com, not Market Technologies; they are 2 very separate entities and operations.

Lane IS involved in all those companies, as he IS actually the founder of TradingEducation.com, and they ARE housed in the same large office building as Market Technologies. These are not some kind of deep dark or sinister secrets folks -- they are public facts. In fact, Lane was interviewed by Stocks & Commodities magazine back in January of this year, and they discussed these issues.

The operations are totally separate, and most if not all the employees of Market Technologies are not employees of TradingEducation.com nor TraderChat.com.

TradingEducation.com & TraderChat.com subsist, survive & operate, based on advertising revenue. In other words -- advertisers 'pay per click' to the hosting website (TradingEducation & TraderChat) when users of those sites click on their ads. That was Lane's concept when he started the sites -- provide awesome resources for traders, free of charge, due to the ad revenue generated by the sites. He told me that Market Technologies actually pays advertising fees to the sites just like all the other advertisers.

Lane said the click-based revenue from the TraderChat.com site had dropped to the point it could not sustain the costs of its own operation -- and so it was shut down, pure & simple. Makes sense to me.

TradingEducation.com is much broader in its scope than 'just' Vantage Point, and Lane said the revenue from that site remains strong.

Why did traffic to the TraderChat website decline? Probably many reasons, not the least of which was surely that several of the Vantage Point 'super users' who were posting and contributing to the site got tired of being flamed and attacked by others -- so, they walked away.

I think that's a shame, and frankly, it irritates me, because ~alot~ of us would certainly like to read and learn more about and leverage their 'adventures' and experience and insights with Vantage Point!...

Do I think Vantage Point is a scam, a charlatan, a poser? No. Is it the holy grail, the 'black box' trading system, with iron clad, can't miss, buy-sell signals? Again, No. (the Company even goes to great lengths on their website, right next to the examples they post, to tell you that.)

Further: Am i related to them, do I work for them, do I have some vested interested in Market Technologies, or TraderEducation.com or any of that? Again, No.

I ~am~ however a fan of neural network technology, having developed and used them in some pretty significant engineering analyses involving orbit mechanics and space vehicle dynamics; I've seen neural nets interpolate on multi-dimensional data in ways no other tools could do, and provide the 'right' answers. Having that experience is what drew me to adding Vantage Point to my trading toolbox.

I think people should learn it, use it, or leave it -- just like any other consumer product. If someone has a beef with the Company, take it up with them; but don't take it out on people who are just working to use the software more and more effectively.
Tango46,

Firstly did you notice how this thread has been moved to the recycle bin already, what a surprise.

Traderchat was set up by VP as a marketing tool, they used to direct potential customers to the site to 'prove' that people were using it successfully. I know this because Lane himself asked me to post something favourable there, he said thats where people looked when deciding whether or not to buy the product. I could find the e mail if you dont believe me.

Recently an entire thread was deleted from traderchat because it contained critical posts about VP and now the entire site has been taken down, dont you think that maybe they just decided that it was more of a liability than it was worth?

The bottom line is that the only resource that offered some hope of ever using VP successfully has been removed, I suppose that's one more reason why potential buyers should stay away.
I just started a new thread called vantagepoint and traderchat as this one is clearly going to get deleted soon
Quoting pboyles
Tango46,

Firstly did you notice how this thread has been moved to the recycle bin already, what a surprise.

Traderchat was set up by VP as a marketing tool, they used to direct potential customers to the site to 'prove' that people were using it successfully. I know this because Lane himself asked me to post something favourable there, he said thats where people looked when deciding whether or not to buy the product. I could find the e mail if you dont believe me.

Recently an entire thread was deleted from traderchat because it contained critical posts about VP and now the entire site has been taken down, dont you think that maybe they just decided that it was more of a liability than it was worth?

The bottom line is that the only resource that offered some hope of ever using VP successfully has been removed, I suppose that's one more reason why potential buyers should stay away.
Heck, if VP worked for you, why ~wouldn't~ the Company want the world to know that?? Seems normal enough to me.. even my drycleaners say 'tell your friends and neighbors about us!' just about every time we pick up our clothes there...

I agree that TraderChat was/should've been/could've continued to be a really great resource for the VP community.. but now hopefully, info that we could've shared there will now migrate to TradingEducation.com or some other venue... because there are $$ waiting to be harvested, and time wasting. I say, lets stop picking at lint and flaws in our belly buttons, and get on with it! 'Nuff said.
Quoting Tango46
Heck, if VP worked for you, why ~wouldn't~ the Company want the world to know that?? Seems normal enough to me.. even my drycleaners say 'tell your friends and neighbors about us!' just about every time we pick up our clothes there...

I agree that TraderChat was/should've been/could've continued to be a really great resource for the VP community.. but now hopefully, info that we could've shared there will now migrate to TradingEducation.com or some other venue... because there are $$ waiting to be harvested, and time wasting. I say, lets stop picking at lint and flaws in our belly buttons, and get on with it! 'Nuff said.
Tango46,

I would have replied earlier but I was banned from the site for 2 weeks and then immediately suspended again when the 2 weeks was up for expressing my opinion about VP. All in all I've been unable to make a post for nearly a month.

I think you slightly missed my point, Traderchat was clearly set up to help market VP, once it became a liability due to the critical posts it was pulled without explanation. If you can use VP to make money good luck to you, you are one of the very few that claims to be able to do that.
Quoting pboyles
Tango46,

I would have replied earlier but I was banned from the site for 2 weeks and then immediately suspended again when the 2 weeks was up for expressing my opinion about VP. All in all I've been unable to make a post for nearly a month.

I think you slightly missed my point, Traderchat was clearly set up to help market VP, once it became a liability due to the critical posts it was pulled without explanation. If you can use VP to make money good luck to you, you are one of the very few that claims to be able to do that.
u better stop chatting about services and sites UNLESS u have more than 100 posts...

that is why u were suspended...

that rule is clear since the begininig...

and no.. it is no surprise this kinda threads endup in the garbage since ppl starting them apparently dont give a $#!$# about rules anymore.
This thread has almost 1200 posts because it began with a noble purpose: how can Vantage Point software be used successfully. Early on there were many FF members who worked hard and devoted a lot of time to this project. We accomplished some very good things, learned from our mistakes and came away from the early projects with our own personal opinions about how best to use this software. Once that work was done, the naysayers appeared. The same thing happened at the Trader Chat forum, which IMO was shut down because VP opponents tried to hijack the site and/or overshadow the good with their negativity.

Whether you like VP or not, use it successfully or not is not the point anymore in this thread; one of the reasons it's now in the Recycle Bin. Using VP is like using a chainsaw; I don't need to explain the analogy. pboyles knows what I'm talking about; he has 9 posts here at FF and all of them are complaints about VP. Try contributing something positive on this forum. Is that asking too much?
I do receive news letter from VT, I will go through this thread over the week end.
another 30 days live for this.
Hey Folks, Anybody still here?? Every now & then there seems to be 'a light in the window'... I personally miss 'the days' when we had alot going on here

If anyone's interested, I'll shortly post info on a VP-based trading approach I've been having good success with!...

Also, in case you haven't heard, there's also VP info at traderplanet.com...

Check out the VP (& other) webinars at

http://www.traderplanet.com/index.php?page=webinars

(the VP webinars are at the bottom of page)

Cheers
I´d be really interested in your VP trading approach, hope to share some of my personal experience on VP on 2009.
Greetings Tango46,

All the best for the new year 2009, filled with peace, joy and trading success. I am interested in your trading approach using VP.

fxpilot


Quoting Tango46
Hey Folks, Anybody still here?? Every now & then there seems to be 'a light in the window'... I personally miss 'the days' when we had alot going on here

If anyone's interested, I'll shortly post info on a VP-based trading approach I've been having good success with!...

Also, in case you haven't heard, there's also VP info at traderplanet.com...

Check out the VP (& other) webinars at

http://www.traderplanet.com/index.php?page=webinars

(the VP webinars are at the bottom of page)

Cheers
  • Post #1,192
  • Quote
  • Edited Jan 1, 2009 12:05pm Dec 31, 2008 1:19pm | Edited Jan 1, 2009 12:05pm
Hey, great to see at least a couple folks still here & interested!

Here's initial info.. LOTS of words here.. get a cuppa somethin and settle in to read it.. Maybe even print it out to make it easier.

Hang in there... it will be worth it.... HNY & good trading!

Tango

=====================================

In this post, I will set out ‘the rules’ for my "Easy Cruise" Trading Method for the GBPUSD.... It has been working very well!

Once ‘you see it’ -- it is like reading a road map -- you can spot high potential trades easily -- they happen frequently -- and also know when VP is telling you to ‘stay away‘.

I am assuming the reader has familiarity & ability to operate VP. If you are currently wanting to learn more about the software - this will give you some insight as well

In the posts that follow this one, I will narrate through a series of 4 trades in Nov & Dec 2008

This method also works with other pairs, although the stop loss & profit target values may need to be adjusted -- depending on volatility and historical movement patterns

All the words that follow may make this seem ‘complicated’ -- it is actually not.

The examples I will post next will demonstrate the method & hopefully clarify things!

VP Indicators Employed
P3EMA+1 3 day EMA predicted 1 day ahead
(this is the short term EMA used in the 3EMA set included in VP)
PNI Predicted neural index
PStr Predicted strength
PTSDiff Predicted difference in short term EMA
PTMDiff Predicted difference in medium term EMA
PHigh Predicted next day high price
PLow Predicted next day low price

Objectives
3 profit targets, 3 trade ‘legs‘: 100 pips; 200 pips; & ‘run’, i.e., until stopped out or otherwise closed

Money Management & Risk
I personally choose to risk 2% of the current account balance on each trade, meaning that if all 3 ’legs’ of the trade hit the initial stop loss -- the dollar value loss to the account will be 2%.

(Note this is different than risking 2% on each of 3 ‘legs’, for a total of 6%)

(I speak of ‘legs’ because in MT4 I have to actually place 3 trades and manage them independently -- on some other platforms, you will be able to place 1 trade, and specify profit targets & amount of the position to close at each)

Entry
The objective is to enter based on a daily close above or below the P3EMA+1, when the VP indicators also predict market movement in the same direction. The most advantageous entries are generally at the beginning of a new trend, and on a day the PNI changes direction. Entries later in a trend, using the same entry rules, are ok and usually also successful, but may be affected by ’trend exhaustion’ etc.

For a long entry, what we’re looking for are: (and vice versa for a short)

1.) Closing price above P3EMA+1, preferably on a solid ’up’ day. If the closing price hasn’t quite crossed the EMA, but is no more than 5 pips below it, ’that counts too’.

2.) PNI = 1, preferably having just changed from being zero the day before for an initial entry.

3.) PStr, PTSDiff, PTMDiff all rising as compared to the previous day‘s values, if even only by a small amount. (Note, I have no requirements on which of these is largest or smallest relative to the others, or above zero, below zero etc -- the only requirement is that all 3 are rising.)

4.) PHigh & PLow rising as compared to the previous day‘s values, if even only by a small amount.

Stop Loss & Exit
“Normal” initial stop loss is set to 12 pips below the entry analysis day’s low for a long trade.

For a short trade, the stop is set 12 pips + spread above the entry analysis day’s high.

This initial stop loss remains fixed in place until the 2nd of the 3 profit targets is achieved -- i.e., 200 pips profit.

For a long trade, when the 2nd profit target is reached, move the stop to the PLow for the next day, and adjust to the new PLow each day, until the stop is hit. (obviously, adjust PHigh + spread for shorts)

On a long trade, if the PLow is less than the break even point, i.e., the trade entry price, set the stop at the entry price -- and only begin using the PLow when it gets to be greater than the entry price. ( ‘Ditto’ and vice versa for short trades)

Re-Entries
If stopped out but the trend continues, and on a subsequent day an entry signal re-occurs, or possibly even exists on the day you are stopped out -- then re-enter using the entry rules as before. Be aware the trend may have ‘lots’ of life left, or possibly ‘not so much‘.

“Creative” Tweaks -- Advanced Topic
(Not required -- this is where things get more ‘discretionary’)

Stops: If the entry analysis day was a ‘large movement day‘, when the range between the close (which will be your entry) and the day's high or low (depending if going long or short) is ’huge’ -- like 400 to 600 pips as we’ve seen recently -- I sometimes am able to use 110% of ATR(10) for the entry analysis day, which I obtain from my MT4 platform, to set the initial stop. The stop is set 110% of ATR(10) from the entry price. Sometimes, the ATR(10) is larger than the range between the entry price and the day's high/low -- so I go with the usual initial stop loss approach.

This ATR approach generally reduces the difference between the entry & the stop loss by 100 - 200 pips on a ‘huge‘ movement day -- which reduces risk and allows a larger trade size -- and, I’ve found that 110% of the ATR usually provides enough cushion that the stop is not hit when the trade is going to progress in the desired direction.

Exits: There are situations that occur when you may want to ‘be creative’ in order to maximize your results on a trade. These normally apply only to trades that have already reached the 2nd profit target, and therefore have a stop loss at breakeven or better.

First, in the case of a ‘large movement’ day -- e.g., closing price 350+ pips from the opening price -- you may want to close ½ the remaining position immediately -- and continue trailing the stop for the remaining portion using the VP predicted high/low as before, or possibly with tighter stops.

In the case of a ‘key’ candle or series of candles, indicating impending reversal, especially when corroborated by the VP indicators (PNI, PStr, PTSDiff, PTMDiff, PHigh, PLow) -- you may want to close all or ½ the remaining position -- and either continue trailing the stop using the VP predicted high/low, or shift to using tighter stops.

==================================================

Read this over, give it some thought; ask questions if you want to, and/or hold them til I get the examples posted & you can review those...

Stay cool... and, Happy Cruising!
  • Post #1,193
  • Quote
  • Edited Jan 1, 2009 12:13pm Dec 31, 2008 8:37pm | Edited Jan 1, 2009 12:13pm

I suggest you print out the chart & these notes, and study thru them. This is a really textbook VP EasyCruise trade

Indicator Key -- see chart
P3EMA+1 -- light blue
PNI -- brown
PStr -- yellow
PTSDiff -- orange
PTMDiff -- blue
PHigh -- dark grey
PLow -- dark grey

Number-coded Events -- see chart
#1 -- Data analysis evening 21Nov08 indicates trade entry signal, long, due to:
- Candle closed 10 pips above the P3EMA+1.
- PNI changed to 1.
- All other VP indicators rising.
- Stop loss set at day’s low minus 12 pips = 1.4705
==> 21Nov was a Friday -- trade entered at open on Sunday evening 23Nov @ 1.4898 + spread = 1.4902

#2 -- Data analysis evening 24Nov indicates:
- Profit target #1 (100 pips) & profit target #2 (200 pips) achieved
- Therefore, stop loss should be moved to BE or PLow, whichever is higher
- PLow for 25Nov is 1.4960, which is higher than BE at 1.4902
==> Set stop loss at 1.4960

#3 -- Data analysis evening 25Nov indicates:
==> Move stop loss to next day PLow, 1.5157

#4 -- Data analysis evening 26Nov indicates:
Basic actions:
==> Move stop loss to next day PLow, 1.5189
“Advanced” actions:
- note ‘inside day‘, ’enlarged hanging man’ type candle -- possible topping/reversal signal
- note PStr has changed directions and has crossed below PTSDiff and PTMDiff
- note PTSDiff has changed directions and has crossed below PTMDiff
~~ although these are VP signals the trend is weakening, PTMDiff is still climbing & PNI is still 1.0, ~~
==> Conservative action: exit trade; or
==> Less conservative action: exit ½ the position; or
==> Optimistic action: maintain the position, continue adjusting PLow each day
(assume here we took the ‘basic action’ and maintained the full position)

#5 -- Data analysis evening 28Nov indicates:
- Stop loss @ 1.5313 hit, closing 3rd leg of the trade with 411 pip profit
- Notice:
-- more of a true ‘hanging man’ candle, but closed 7 pips above PEMA3+1
-- all VP indicators declining, except PNI still 1.0
==> No new trade at this time.

ADDITIONAL NOTES:

(A) Interestingly enough -- on the entry day signaled by VP for this trade (21Nov08) -- the MA crossover system I also follow for comparison -- did not signal an entry.
+ On the day prior to the VP entry (i.e., 20Nov08), the MA crossover system I follow signaled a short entry... and notice that all VP indicators signal a short entry ~EXCEPT~ the PTMDiff, which was actually climbing.-- hence ’no trade’ for us.

[PTMDiff is unfortunately obscured 18-20Nov by the VP Copyright notice in this happy snap (and NO, this is not a conspiracy) - check it out in the actual SW and you will see that the PTMDiff is clearly rising]

Notice 20Nov was a very large bearish candle, following a shooting star candle on 19Nov -- this combination, in addition to the MA crossover, would’ve prompted most traders to enter, with a great deal of confidence -- but VP and the EasyCruise Method kept us out of the trade, and saved us from a loss on the 21st!

(B) One key point about the ‘trailing stops’ should be mentioned -- as you are trailing the stop with PHigh or PLow, only adjust the stop one day to the next so that it is the same, or tighter -- never wider -- even if PHigh or PLow go wider. For example, if the forecast PLow for tomorrow is lower than today's PLow -- just leave the stop set at today's PLow.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf gbpusd_example_1_pdf.pdf   137 KB | 401 downloads
sher.............It has been another month since you posted about using VP. Would you like to share your results and/or experiences with us?

My personal schedule no longer allows me to use VP on a daily basis, but my opinion about it's usefulness has not changed. And the recent posts by Tango46 should kindle some interest.

If you don't mind, please tell us how you are doing with VP.

Thanks!

Quoting sher
another 30 days live for this.
test
Happy New Year to all.

Thanx for the post Tango.
I was wondering if the end of day analysis on 12/31/08 would be a valid entry.
Attached Image
ePIPhany

You betcha. I'm attaching a snap from VP as of evening 2Jan....

A big ugly black candle, almost what we could call a 'high wave candle'... (meaning 'the market is confused', to quote Steve Nison)... was formed that day.

If somehow you could've entered at COB on 31Dec.. you would've likely achieved the 100 & 200 pip targets even on that bearish high wave day on 2Jan.... which would've called for you to move your SL to BE, which you would not be able to do, because the close on 2 Jan is lower than your entry -- in that case - I normally close out & take the loss on the 3rd leg.... still an overall net profit summing up results from all 3 legs however....

But, in reality, we couldn't enter until market open on 2Jan... the market gapped up then created that 'big black ugly high wave candle'.. but didn't hit our SL, which was 'safely' 12 pips below the 31Dec low....

And we see that the open on 2Jan is ~66pips above the 31Dec close... What do we do for profit targets in this situation, since that's 2/3rds of the way to our original first profit target??

The conservative approach: set your targets equal to 100 & 200 pips above the 31Dec close, with the 3rd leg as a 'runner', as usual....

The optimistic approach: set your targets to 100 & 200 pips above the 2Jan entry, with the 3rd leg as a 'runner', as usual....

A possible hybrid: set 1st target to 100 pips above 2Jan open... set 2nd target to 200 pips above 31Dec close, with the 3rd leg as a 'runner' as usual...

So, we hang on, & as of this writing, 1300 on 5Jan (next trading day after 2Jan), the GBPUSD pair is rebounding, and has made an intraday high of 1.4666 (on IBFX anyway)...

It will be interesting to see how this one pans out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dec31 example.jpg Size: 71 KB
Quoting Tango46

Re-Entries
If stopped out but the trend continues, and on a subsequent day an entry signal re-occurs, or possibly even exists on the day you are stopped out -- then re-enter using the entry rules as before. Be aware the trend may have ‘lots’ of life left, or possibly ‘not so much‘.
If you missed the entry on the open on 2Jan would the above Re-Entry rule apply? Would you try getting in using the PLow?
Quoting ePIPhany
If you missed the entry on the open on 2Jan would the above Re-Entry rule apply? Would you try getting in using the PLow?
Since the PStr is decreasing on 2Jan & the PLow predicted for 6Jan is also heading down -- an entry signal is not present.

I would wait to check the indicators after the next trading day, which was 5Jan in this case.

As it turns out, all the indicators headed up on the 5th & the close was well above the P3EMA+1 -- so, you could enter at the close (evening) of the 5th, and set your stop loss per the intial stop loss rules, i.e., 12 pips below the low of the 5th.
Quoting Tango46
Since the PStr is decreasing on 2Jan & the PLow predicted for 6Jan is also heading down -- an entry signal is not present.

I would wait to check the indicators after the next trading day, which was 5Jan in this case.

As it turns out, all the indicators headed up on the 5th & the close was well above the P3EMA+1 -- so, you could enter at the close (evening) of the 5th, and set your stop loss per the intial stop loss rules, i.e., 12 pips below the low of the 5th.

Sorry, I misspoke in the post above -- should have said " ...the PLow predicted for 5Jan is also heading down..." not 6Jan.
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