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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #151,361
  • Jan 2, 2009 10:26pm Jan 2, 2009 10:26pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
broken wedge with hammer? bullish pov fo sho

I agree, was thinking bullish myself. Your post gave me the confirmation of what I was thinking.
  • #151,362
  • Jan 3, 2009 8:07am Jan 3, 2009 8:07am
Hi Malcomb,
what do you think of USDCHF?
Would you short it?

Thanks!
  • #151,363
  • Jan 3, 2009 10:16am Jan 3, 2009 10:16am
Quoting dreed
I agree, was thinking bullish myself. Your post gave me the confirmation of what I was thinking.
Also depends on USDJPY...If that goes down...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #151,364
  • Jan 3, 2009 10:29am Jan 3, 2009 10:29am
Which are the best trading methods for euro/us and gbp/yen - should we sell euro and gbp for next week? Can any experienced trader predict and give us their easiest trading skills for new traders please.
  • #151,365
  • Jan 3, 2009 11:30am Jan 3, 2009 11:30am
Hey Malcolmb can you explain how exactly to use Volume in trading. I am trying to figure out supply and demand concept and running into some questions. How do I figure out where the buyers and sellers are by looking at the Volume indicator? Is there a specific number in the Volume you are looking for to figure out YES there are buyers and sellers here? How exactly can I decipher it. Thanks
  • #151,366
  • Jan 3, 2009 11:48am Jan 3, 2009 11:48am
you can read about this in tom williams' "master the markets".

Quoting vinesh2
Hey Malcolmb can you explain how exactly to use Volume in trading. I am trying to figure out supply and demand concept and running into some questions. How do I figure out where the buyers and sellers are by looking at the Volume indicator? Is there a specific number in the Volume you are looking for to figure out YES there are buyers and sellers here? How exactly can I decipher it. Thanks
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #151,367
  • Jan 3, 2009 12:18pm Jan 3, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting vinesh2
Hey Malcolmb can you explain how exactly to use Volume in trading. I am trying to figure out supply and demand concept and running into some questions. How do I figure out where the buyers and sellers are by looking at the Volume indicator? Is there a specific number in the Volume you are looking for to figure out YES there are buyers and sellers here? How exactly can I decipher it. Thanks
doing what scrat advised gives a good hint. it is nothing about indicators..it is reading charts!

you determine professional activity during a given period 5m,60m,daily, and compare the volume of it relatively to the previous action, previous time when working that level out etc.

spotting places when supply hit the markets on rising prices which hit it sideways. when price tries to go back up and u see diminishing demand, market is vulnerable to some sort of professionals shorting it, especially when trading above/below channel upper/lower tls where market is overbot/sold. if you see it and judge the situation right, professionals also did and u can expect a drop. if there is no reaction to that u have to ask yourself why.

you make diescretionary trading decisions based on that and there is no thing like a system popping up green or red lights

read the book over and over again and spend 1000's of hours seeing the principles appear on the live edge.
  • #151,368
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:04pm Jan 3, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
doing what scrat advised gives a good hint. it is nothing about indicators..it is reading charts!

you determine professional activity during a given period 5m,60m,daily, and compare the volume of it relatively to the previous action, previous time when working that level out etc.

spotting places when supply hit the markets on rising prices which hit it sideways. when price tries to go back up and u see diminishing demand, market is vulnerable to some sort of professionals shorting it, especially when trading above/below channel upper/lower tls...
do you have sources where i can read about wyckoff styles and principles?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #151,369
  • Jan 3, 2009 7:39pm Jan 3, 2009 7:39pm
My first attempt to interpret price action and volume, what do you guys think.

I think cable will go up.

my reasoning stems from EURGBP, which shows signs of reversal. On the daily 4 candles ago we saw jump in volume and although price made new high it then pulled back and closed in the middle of the daily range, then the following day volume was also pretty high (close to previous day) and although price closed higher it didnt manage to rise higher than the day before which indicates selling at the top. then you can see there was a sharp reversal which was done on relatively low volume indicating the there was little demand to support the price. Friday is abit ambiguous for me so next few day will confirm or disprove my observations.

as for GBPUSD i think on daily and weekly there is (tripple?) bullish divergence on almost any indicator where you can get divergences. Also weekly bar looks like a reversal bar for both GU and EG. And lastly 1.44 level seems to have alot of support and price fall were constanly slower ( on dailies) which i think indicates accumulation at those levels. So for the next maybe 2 weeks ( or 1 at least) we should see bullish movement on GU. And then probably into 1.3xxx territory down we go.

Im still not sure if volume of any particular broker gives a good picture as we do not see interbank volume.

PS. Also on friday price went up at the end of the day on low volume which indicates marking up of the price and if we see gap up or rise in price on low volumes at the opening and asian session on Monday it will confirm bullish move.
  • #151,370
  • Jan 3, 2009 8:17pm Jan 3, 2009 8:17pm
Quoting lexazver
My first attempt to interpret price action and volume, what do you guys think.

I think cable will go up.

my reasoning stems from EURGBP, which shows signs of reversal. On the daily 4 candles ago we saw jump in volume and although price made new high it then pulled back and closed in the middle of the daily range, then the following day volume was also pretty high (close to previous day) and although price closed higher it didnt manage to rise higher than the day before which indicates selling at the top. then you can see there was a sharp reversal...
price can fall easily on low volume but up moves on low volume / declining volume cannot be sustained. The last bit of your statement is not quiet correct
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,371
  • Jan 3, 2009 8:28pm Jan 3, 2009 8:28pm
Quoting malcolmb14
price can fall easily on low volume but up moves on low volume / declining volume cannot be sustained. The last bit of your statement is not quiet correct

i was kinda expecting that. Since 22nd dec price was moving up on the decreasing volume untill 26th. of course it is largly due to holidays season but i still think it has some significance. and then on higher volumes price went up and closed in the middle of the candle and the day after also on higher volume it failed to break previous days high which led me to think there there is supply in that area. then on low volume it fell on sligtly lower volume which could be regarded as a test i guess ( to see if sellers will come in) but it could be read as lack of demand also.( which im favouring )

edit: with regards to EURGBP
  • #151,372
  • Jan 3, 2009 9:20pm Jan 3, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting lexazver
i was kinda expecting that. Since 22nd dec price was moving up on the decreasing volume untill 26th. of course it is largly due to holidays season but i still think it has some significance. and then on higher volumes price went up and closed in the middle of the candle and the day after also on higher volume it failed to break previous days high which led me to think there there is supply in that area. then on low volume it fell on sligtly lower volume which could be regarded as a test i guess ( to see if...

the high volume doji on 4hr chart 3 candles ago was loaded with sellers ....

but so far there has been no reaction to that selling pressure.

in fact Friday ended day on a doji on the 4hr on the dp ... maybe reversal
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,373
  • Jan 4, 2009 2:09am Jan 4, 2009 2:09am
There wont be a reversal til at least June or July.

You can read all the fancy charts you like, and look at useless indicators that mean nothing.

The Pound is a joke and will take a battering for a long time yet.
  • #151,374
  • Jan 4, 2009 4:07am Jan 4, 2009 4:07am
Quoting Niandra_lade
There wont be a reversal til at least June or July.

You can read all the fancy charts you like, and look at useless indicators that mean nothing.

The Pound is a joke and will take a battering for a long time yet.

nice analysis ..lol

you must have spent some time on that one.

question is which is more of a joke ... GBP or USD ... if markets have bear rally when traders return to work Monday then USD will get weaker
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,375
  • Jan 4, 2009 4:20am Jan 4, 2009 4:20am
it is not you fault that your broker does not supply you with insider informations.

change your Broker.. [j/k]

Anyway, the funny thing is that I support his view, but not b/c my broker told me SO, but b/c the cycle is not finished, my Time target is 04 April 2009, and my price Target is 98.80 - 113.00

Cheers
  • #151,376
  • Jan 4, 2009 5:41am Jan 4, 2009 5:41am
Quoting Niandra_lade
There wont be a reversal til at least June or July.

You can read all the fancy charts you like, and look at useless indicators that mean nothing.

The Pound is a joke and will take a battering for a long time yet.
spot on- by crystallicator?

i agree to the point with indicators as many here might now

but the rest...

in many stocks we see some accumulation going on since a short period. i suppose to see a short lived rally soon, also affecting currencies. 1000+ p, but the point is, that all this does not refelect real world demand. the real world out there will definitely not jump on the train and therefore we might see a even uglier leg down after that breather.

wall str. and other financial criminalists have shorted everything out there. also so called profit-taking... see oil- price does not reflect real world demand. the time has come when even main street begins to realize that banks, wall str. and so one are just big playgrounds and that money creation is a big fat joke.

just in right time for the, liek always, self made war without reason,s oil is a t alow for bush and co. to reap profits. time to fill the bags.

the criminal guys out there have shorted economy and the system we live in to hell and just by being bullish again won't make economy recover.
  • #151,377
  • Jan 4, 2009 7:17am Jan 4, 2009 7:17am
Posted analysis at my cave. Click on my signature. Cheers.
  • #151,378
  • Edited 9:49am Jan 4, 2009 8:46am | Edited 9:49am
First of all, I wish everyone a Happy New Year and many pips in 2009...
I am excited about this year price action..There is so many opportunities that are developing and I am ready to catch the wave...


Based on my daily chart, the price action broke out of the major trend (solid blue line in 10/22/08 and trend down near the low of the 1995 low of 129.32.

My observation is the downtrend is not over but the retracement is trending back toward the major LTL near the 148-150 range which happen to be the 23.6% fib from the high of 215.82 to low 129.87 based on my charts.

Also, the weekly Gann-Hilo is around 148 range if the rally continues upward.

My projection for this month if the rally continues is around the 148-150 range before testing the lows again for a possible new low...

I am a trend trader so I have great confidence in the price action on major TL..

This year will be interesting with the US all time low rate change and new president coming on board this month...

Technically, the RSX and MACD are trending upward...The divergence on the daily is due for a mid-term retracement before testing the lows again... The solid red TL is broken so I am projecting a retracement before a drop again..

IMHO..

Good Luck..
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  • #151,379
  • Jan 4, 2009 8:53am Jan 4, 2009 8:53am
Quoting rgitt05
First of all, I wish everyone a Happy New Year and many pips in 2009...
I am excited about this year price action..There is so many opportunities that are developing and I am ready to catch the wave...


Based on my daily chart, the price action broke out of the major trend (solid blue line in 10/22/08 and trend down near the low of the 1995 low of 129.32.

My observation is the downtrend is not over but the retracement is trending back toward the major LTL near the 148-150 range which happen to be the 23.6% fib from the high of 215.82 to...
great analysis as always bro.
  • #151,380
  • Jan 4, 2009 9:19am Jan 4, 2009 9:19am
Hi Pkimnyc,

Thanks for the feedback... I expect some major PA this year from the EU and GU ...The economy is real bad and the correlation of the currencies are going to be really interesting ...I think commodites are due for another big run this year. hyperinflation??? If the government keeps printing money, we are heading in that direction... Gold looks ready for another run for a new high...

So many opportunites $$$$$




Quoting pkimnyc
great analysis as always bro.
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