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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,601
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:34pm Mar 14, 2007 10:34pm
Quoting karma729
london session
Thanks
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,602
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:36pm Mar 14, 2007 10:36pm
Quoting Sami7
Question - I haven't stayed up late (past 12:00 am ET) to trade this specific pair. Although I have traded GBP and Euro. What time does this pair normally start really moving?
2:30 am central time
  • #1,603
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:42pm Mar 14, 2007 10:42pm
Quoting moonchild
The reason I was not totally convinced by the 1H stoch is because while the 20 and 50 were heading up the 5 was heading down. By the time te 5 turns upward there is a good chance that the 20 and 50 will be preparing to turn down.

That in addition to the fact that the primary reason for considering a move down is the head and shoulders formation, with support only being offered by the 30M stoch in this case. In this particular case, the stoch was not the primary reason for deciding on the direction down.

No matter what, it does not mean that this is going to be right. I have seen the occasional case where the stochastics were absolutely perfect on more than one time frame and the trade still did not work. So--no guarantees, only probabilities.
So, if this retrace happened we have about from 226.90 - 226.11 to cut ?
  • #1,604
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:48pm Mar 14, 2007 10:48pm
Quoting karma729
london session
I have done a quick study on this. I looked back over the last 3 months and took not of when the big crossovers happen (MACD, etc.) on the 1 hour chart. There are 2 times, roughly 6am and 6pm West Coast time (like this morning). Of course with this pair anything can happen at any time. This is nothing scientific and would like others to check for themselves.
Pips are like cabbage, the green ones are the tastiest!
  • #1,605
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:48pm Mar 14, 2007 10:48pm
Quoting moonchild
The reason I was not totally convinced by the 1H stoch is because while the 20 and 50 were heading up the 5 was heading down. By the time te 5 turns upward there is a good chance that the 20 and 50 will be preparing to turn down.

That in addition to the fact that the primary reason for considering a move down is the head and shoulders formation, with support only being offered by the 30M stoch in this case. In this particular case, the stoch was not the primary reason for deciding on the direction down.

No matter what, it does not mean that this is going to be right. I have seen the occasional case where the stochastics were absolutely perfect on more than one time frame and the trade still did not work. So--no guarantees, only probabilities.
Yeah, I got what your saying. Good analysis.
I think we pretty much have the same stoch setup exept I have been using some macd as well. Price seems to be consolidating over the last few hours.
  • #1,606
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:50pm Mar 14, 2007 10:50pm
Quoting trader8686
So, if this retrace happened we have about from 226.90 - 226.11 to cut ?
Only if I am right. So far not much happening.
  • #1,607
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:51pm Mar 14, 2007 10:51pm
[quote=karma729;244514]stochs setup look perfect for a ride up on the 1hr??

Look back on the 1hr from March 8, to 12th.
Im not saying the price will move like this again but
it's possible right?
  • #1,608
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:59pm Mar 14, 2007 10:59pm
[quote=smnitro1;244534]
Quoting karma729
stochs setup look perfect for a ride up on the 1hr??

Look back on the 1hr from March 8, to 12th.
Im not saying the price will move like this again but
it's possible right?
Yes, anything is possible, no matter how crazy or unlikely it may seem.

In this case, I was depending primarily on a fairly good looking head and shoulders formation. The success rate of formations is actually fairly good, ranging from 60% to 85% depending on who you read and listen to. I was only using the stochastics as support, not as primary evidence. In addition, given which pair we are talking about and how fast it moves, a move of this few pips (relatively) to me should be looked for on the 15M or 30M charts. Of course, during asian session things do move much more slowly.
  • #1,609
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:06pm Mar 14, 2007 11:06pm
Looks like we may be heading up, or down, or....
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,610
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:15pm Mar 14, 2007 11:15pm
this asian session makes me want to move to london
  • #1,611
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:28pm Mar 14, 2007 11:28pm
Long, hard to trust this move up....
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,612
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:35pm Mar 14, 2007 11:35pm
Any more of those Russian forex players? They have been pushing GBPJPY down for 2 days now only to go back up.. any more of them today?
  • #1,613
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:48pm Mar 14, 2007 11:48pm
Been checking out the discussions on this thread, and thought I would dabble in the pair on a demo just for kicks. I trade GU exclusively like a floor trader, but though it might be fun to diversify the portfolio, and put on some longer term trades. This pair seemed to have the biggest daily ranges, and I know that it's predominantly a bull's market. Plus I can pick up some interest when I'm out of the money on a long. Anyways, here are my results thus far, since Feb 20th. I have a Daily chart up, and look for appropriate times to go in and out. I also try to go long only, for obvious reasons... however, couldn't resist the the Chinese Stock Market debacle a few weeks ago and shorted for some quick profits.

FYI, Every $1000 @ 100:1 = 1 lot mini per trade (multiple trades allowed)
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip GJ.zip   7 KB | 332 downloads
  • #1,614
  • Mar 15, 2007 12:01am Mar 15, 2007 12:01am
I take the trades which I suggest in my posts. I took this one, and it is not a memorable trade. Frankly, I did not expect it to be. It has taken all this time since the price broke the neckline just to cover the spread (currently 10 pips). I usually watch over my trades, but it hardly seems worth the trouble tonight, so I will get some sleep until London.

I do not believe it , just now I became positive pips, +7 pips. I am not sure what happened, and they probably will go away. Hopefully they will come back to me later and bring some friends back with them.
  • #1,615
  • Mar 15, 2007 12:43am Mar 15, 2007 12:43am
Looks like my earlier stop hit was only crossed over by about 5 pips. Then it's turned and kept on going on down.
Missed about 50-60 pips on the way down, but am now back in for a short.

DM+/DM- looking ready to cross on the 30min chart which has lead to some decent moves before. RSI is heading down. Now it's time to hold on tight.
  • #1,616
  • Mar 15, 2007 1:22am Mar 15, 2007 1:22am
Long....
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,617
  • Mar 15, 2007 1:35am Mar 15, 2007 1:35am
will be going long. with some pain in the middle..
  • #1,618
  • Mar 15, 2007 1:38am Mar 15, 2007 1:38am
Russians are back in the game.. Dont know if they are actively playing today or just watching.
Quote
[05:48 GBP/JPY: Takes A Dive, Russian Player Back In, Seller Initially] Tokyo,
Mar 15. GBP/JPY may have led the greater JPY market lower with sales here
looking to have pushed USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and other JPY crosses lower. Russian
players continue to be the most aggressive players in GBP/JPY, and the thinking
is that they came in on the offer today. From around 227.00, the cross fell
through its early low in the 226.50 area to a fresh low around 226.25. GBP/JPY
has since bounced a bit but the market remains nervous with liquidity still at a
premium. Many Tokyo players in particular are already sidelined for the fiscal
year-end. Offshore players, for their part, may also be curtailing trading ahead
of quarter-end. This is especially the case with many taking large hits on
various markets during the course of the quarter. GBP/JPY currently trades
226.51/58. The cross earlier shot up to as high as 227.50 on the back of short-
covering and stops in almost all JPY pairs as subprime lending concerns in the
US subsided. Asian equity gains later helped support most JPY pairs during the
course of Asian trading. [email protected]



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  • #1,619
  • Mar 15, 2007 1:39am Mar 15, 2007 1:39am
Quoting Sami7
Long....
Sami7, if so, how far it can go up?
  • #1,620
  • Mar 15, 2007 1:49am Mar 15, 2007 1:49am
Quoting trader8686
Sami7, if so, how far it can go up?
I'm really not sure, the lack of movement has me concerned.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
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