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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #151,301
  • Jan 1, 2009 8:20am Jan 1, 2009 8:20am
i was talking about large traders, which is what green line was showing. commercials do not have any choice, as you said.

Quoting OrionsWay
Happy new years

Scrat be careful with the commercials that is all hedging action, so careful how it skews your insights, Those guys must do what they must do period, non commercials is the speculators and the ones to watch

CME is the OI to watch
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #151,302
  • Jan 1, 2009 8:27am Jan 1, 2009 8:27am
Quoting Scrat
i was talking about large traders, which is what green line was showing. commercials do not have any choice, as you said.

Here is a link which is updated daily 11-12 pm CST u can build a report for anything, gives a little better picture of the daily setiment
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...=dailybulletin
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #151,303
  • Jan 1, 2009 8:43am Jan 1, 2009 8:43am
Quoting Pip Dream
Is this a view from technical reasoning only or are you considering the fundamentals? You need to consider the fundamentals here as another possible 0.50% rate cut is looming (UK rate decision 08 Jan I think but check on that). The forthcoming UK news Friday 9:30am GMT is likely to be negative so don't rush in to open any long term buys.
Personally, if you're planning on a long term trade - sell is a better option I would say - don't you think?
fundies make no sense any more .

Look at gbpusd . USD interest rate .25 and gbp 2 % . so based on your post should gu not be around 1.6 or higher ?

also all news out of US really bad ....but market still going up .

NEWs is designed for one thing.... to mess with your trading and trading to fundamentals makes no sense these days. The key is in the volume and perception of the market. Also a move to 140 or even 150 could be very impulsive.

Note how if news is not as bad as expected , but still bad , this is taken as postive these days as all bad news is factored into the markets.

food for thought
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,304
  • Jan 1, 2009 8:45am Jan 1, 2009 8:45am
thx!

Quoting OrionsWay
Here is a link which is updated daily 11-12 pm CST u can build a report for anything, gives a little better picture of the daily setiment
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...=dailybulletin
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #151,305
  • Jan 1, 2009 8:54am Jan 1, 2009 8:54am
Quoting Scrat
and another one for british pound. still down.

scrat 145 on the chart was market test (price went under support to probe for new sellers) .. but volume was very light.

This could be the bottom on the pound . However we need to see reaction to the test when major players come back next week

also plot rsi ..major bullish div on a treble bottom.

IMHO in order for new professional selling to take place price has to go higher.

That BB sure looks flat and has top 155 ... that would equate to 1000 pip in GU spot.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,306
  • Jan 1, 2009 9:07am Jan 1, 2009 9:07am
Quoting malcolmb14
fundies make no sense any more .

Look at gbpusd . USD interest rate .25 and gbp 2 % . so based on your post should gu not be around 1.6 or higher ?

also all news out of US really bad ....but market still going up .

NEWs is designed for one thing.... to mess with your trading and trading to fundamentals makes no sense these days. The key is...
I found some correlation between the direction of the dollar and the direction of the pound - when the dollar weakens, the pound weakens even more, and the other way round.
I think that the responses to bad news and those wild moves back and forth are just a result of thin markets.
I think that on Monday we will see some more logical behavior...

Happy New Year!
  • #151,307
  • Jan 1, 2009 9:48am Jan 1, 2009 9:48am
Quoting malcolmb14
fundies make no sense any more .

Look at gbpusd . USD interest rate .25 and gbp 2 % . so based on your post should gu not be around 1.6 or higher ?

also all news out of US really bad ....but market still going up .

NEWs is designed for one thing.... to mess with your trading and trading to fundamentals makes no sense these days. The key is in the volume and perception of the market. Also a move to 140 or even 150 could be very impulsive.

Note how if news is not as bad as expected , but still bad , this is taken as postive these days as...
I agree, if the expectation is bad news, that has already been factored in already. I've seen that many times, and traders not understanding or grasping this fact, get hurt in the market.
  • #151,308
  • Jan 1, 2009 10:16am Jan 1, 2009 10:16am
Hi guys, I am after babypips, demo accounts, some tutorials and so on, now I am reading "master the markets" by Tom Williams, He is talking about volume and stuff, I can't catch it so far, maybe because it refers about stocks and not forex.

Just I wonder i somebody knows what else could I read about volume, something as basic as possible, for a beginner.

thanks to all

Gabriel
  • #151,309
  • Jan 1, 2009 10:21am Jan 1, 2009 10:21am
Quoting malcolmb14
fundies make no sense any more .

Look at gbpusd . USD interest rate .25 and gbp 2 % . so based on your post should gu not be around 1.6 or higher ?

also all news out of US really bad ....but market still going up .

NEWs is designed for one thing.... to mess with your trading and trading to fundamentals makes no sense these days. The key is in the volume and perception of the market. Also a move to 140 or even 150 could be very impulsive.

Note how if news is not as bad as expected , but still bad , this is taken as postive these days as...
No because BOE rate cuts are imminent so that's what keeps it from reaching the levels you mention.
  • #151,310
  • Jan 1, 2009 10:33am Jan 1, 2009 10:33am
Quoting againgabriel
Hi guys, I am after babypips, demo accounts, some tutorials and so on, now I am reading "master the markets" by Tom Williams, He is talking about volume and stuff, I can't catch it so far, maybe because it refers about stocks and not forex.

Just I wonder i somebody knows what else could I read about volume, something as basic as possible, for a beginner.

thanks to all

Gabriel
Gab this is as basic as it gets, its a read reread, stocks fx commodities, doesnt matter what market its about supply and demand or lack of it. the volume expresses this and WHO is playing, large volume= heavy hitters for only they can make it. our orders dont matter. we just need to identify who is in who is out and when its happening so we can follow their lead and follow them. Its not easy understanding this dont feel bad. everything u may know about markets throw away for its of no use anymore. SUPPLY/DEMAND who is in, who is out, who wants in who needs out. thats it
Price doesnt matter. what matters is where are they play and how to identify it properly and follow their lead.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #151,311
  • Jan 1, 2009 10:42am Jan 1, 2009 10:42am
Quoting dreed
I agree, if the expectation is bad news, that has already been factored in already. I've seen that many times, and traders not understanding or grasping this fact, get hurt in the market.

Of course a degree of factoring in occurs before an announcement, but when the announcement surprises to the upside or downside you can't factor that in.
  • #151,312
  • Jan 1, 2009 12:22pm Jan 1, 2009 12:22pm
Quoting againgabriel
Hi guys, I am after babypips, demo accounts, some tutorials and so on, now I am reading "master the markets" by Tom Williams, He is talking about volume and stuff, I can't catch it so far, maybe because it refers about stocks and not forex.

Just I wonder i somebody knows what else could I read about volume, something as basic as possible, for a beginner.

thanks to all

Gabriel
it does not matter if it is explained on stocks or not. it is everyhwere the same, even if there was a market to trade mud. this book and thousands of screen hours is the only thing you need
there is not too much information about volume out there, for a reason. the mtm book tries to bring it to u pretty basic. the vsa method mentioned in it is based on wyckoffs pricniples which are much more advanced.


i really am wondering how everybody now got this book of williams since i did not introduce it publically and only to a few thankful people
  • #151,313
  • Jan 1, 2009 12:45pm Jan 1, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting Piters
You are apsolutely Right, my friend.. and for ALL my friends who are in Hurry to pick up the bottom, I am going to share another chart..

Guys we are litlle bit FAR from the bottom.. Just have a look those false breakouts on Daily chart.. looks to me GY is forming ROUND BOTTOM..

P.S. I am going to post some additional charts, but have a look this one, and think about
I am going to look the last correction wave, with double ZIGZAG pattern
targets are clear, we should follow our lady GBP down to the 110 levels. to complete the wave Y.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #151,314
  • Edited 1:18pm Jan 1, 2009 12:47pm | Edited 1:18pm
inside wave Y, we are just finishing wave 4 of iii of C, with suggested level for wave 5 to 127.50 to 128.00 area.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: snapshot-450.png Size: 119 KB
  • #151,315
  • Jan 1, 2009 12:59pm Jan 1, 2009 12:59pm
EW is a subjective matter, What I am trying to say here is that WE are having some UNFINISHED BUSINESS with our LADY.. but,

The market can turn any time. I know that all that retracements are wayyy overdue, but I want to share with you what I am looking, and my view.

Please, dont take this as a trade Call.. I use EW only as a possible Trend direction, and Profit Targets... but I ALWAYS enter with my system.

My calculation says that we have to complete wave 5 of iii somewhere to the 127.50- 128.00 area; after that we can expect some Up move, or iv wave as a correction, probably up to high 140-150 area.. and then back down to complete wave v of C, with possible targets from 121 to 110 area..

I wish you all happy piping, and safe trading.

p.s. I started a blog, where i am going to keep a record on almost all setups I am posting here. The blog is not commercial, and if you visit LINKS area, you can find a lot of helpfull resources. FREE
  • #151,316
  • Jan 1, 2009 1:20pm Jan 1, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting againgabriel
Hi guys, I am after babypips, demo accounts, some tutorials and so on, now I am reading "master the markets" by Tom Williams, He is talking about volume and stuff, I can't catch it so far, maybe because it refers about stocks and not forex.

Just I wonder i somebody knows what else could I read about volume, something as basic as possible, for a beginner.

thanks to all

Gabriel

Gabriel

I have used volume in stocks for years and since switching to forex was using indicators until Dr Geppy introduced me to Tradeguider software , which is a VSA software.

Volume is king over everything else in the market ...including ANY indicators as indicators are calculated using volume

Volume in forex is tock volume and the tings that apply to stocks on Tom's book also apply to volume

Also got to tradeguider site and they have free videos on forex and how VSA is applied to it

If you can manage to grasp Tom's book and the context of volume you will be miles ahead of traders that have been in this market for years

Simply put all volume tells you is what the pros are doing in the market ...

recently DR Geppy and I have been trading futures around price points where maximum volume has occurred for the week .. ie where are the professional accumulating or distributing the futures. .... they are volume pivots and more important than daily pivots as it is where the MAXIMUM volume has occurred.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,317
  • Jan 1, 2009 1:25pm Jan 1, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Gabriel

I have used volume in stocks for years and since switching to forex was using indicators until Dr Geppy introduced me to Tradeguider software , which is a VSA software.

Volume is king over everything else in the market ...including ANY indicators as indicators are calculated using volume

Volume in forex is tock volume and the tings that apply to stocks on Tom's book also apply to volume

Also got to tradeguider site and they have free videos on forex and how VSA is applied to it

If you can manage to grasp Tom's book and the context...

Based on this, what's your prediction for Geppy?

B
  • #151,318
  • Jan 1, 2009 6:01pm Jan 1, 2009 6:01pm
Have a wonderful New Year.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #151,319
  • Jan 1, 2009 6:12pm Jan 1, 2009 6:12pm
Malcolmb, Dr.Geppy , this question if for you or anyone else who is using VSA. I just started reading book by mr. Williams ( thanks malcolmb ) but due to fx being moved by interbank dealers and we don;t see their ( true ) volume how can you effectively analyze volume in this market? I'll keep reading the book , maybe the answers are there but i thought Ill ask it before i forget
  • #151,320
  • Jan 1, 2009 6:54pm Jan 1, 2009 6:54pm
Quoting bigcoupe
Based on this, what's your prediction for Geppy?

B

there have been signs of accumulation on a 4 hr chart and the rise from 130 to 133 was on expanding volume ...... currently price sits at 134

Next week will shows us more ... but I think 141 before 127 at this point
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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