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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,561
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:03pm Mar 14, 2007 7:03pm
Got out of my long at 227.27, now back in short 227.33
  • #1,562
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:07pm Mar 14, 2007 7:07pm
Quoting trader8686
RSI 77 ? I don't get it.
It might be time for you to start to read up on a few things. Your questions give off the impression that you don't know a great deal.
I'm not trying to be rude, but you can lose a lot of money real easy otherwise.

RSI signals overbought/oversold conditions. If it's above 70/75 then it shows overbought and is likely to retrace. Below 30/25 and its oversold and likely to bounce back up. These are 'likely' events only though, so are not also accurate. It can run along at over-extended levels for some time.

Got on a short at 22722. Bit later than I had planned, but at least it confirmed the resistance at 22750 area is valid. Most retracements in this pair seem to be about 100 pips, so that will do for a target for now.
  • #1,563
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:15pm Mar 14, 2007 7:15pm
Quoting saa
It might be time for you to start to read up on a few things. Your questions give off the impression that you don't know a great deal.
I'm not trying to be rude, but you can lose a lot of money real easy otherwise.

RSI signals overbought/oversold conditions. If it's above 70/75 then it shows overbought and is likely to retrace. Below 30/25 and its oversold and likely to bounce back up. These are 'likely' events only though, so are not also accurate. It can run along at over-extended levels for some time.

Got on a short at 22722. Bit later than I had planned, but at least it confirmed the resistance at 22750 area is valid. Most retracements in this pair seem to be about 100 pips, so that will do for a target for now.
Thank you very much for the education, now I know better.
Got to learn as much as I have chance everyday.
  • #1,564
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:18pm Mar 14, 2007 7:18pm
I have a kind of noob question.
All 3 jpy pairs seem to trade identically.
Looking back about 5 hours ago at usdjpy, eurjpy and gbpjpy if I were to take Phil's 1hr TC only on all 3 pairs long, it looks like I would be up over 400 pips!!!!!
I know that it would be extremly risky and SL's would probably prevented anyone from doing it but wow.
I'm in an eastern time zone and I work during the day. Is it a good idea to trade these pairs after 5:00pm eastern time?
  • #1,565
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:34pm Mar 14, 2007 7:34pm
Quoting saa
Time for another retrace?

I see resistance around 22750 area and 30min RSI at 77
Could you explain how you saw the resistance?
Thanks
  • #1,566
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:37pm Mar 14, 2007 7:37pm
here's a chart. it seemed to stall there today, just as it did on the 12th. it's also a round number.
so then I thought, that must be resistance.

it now seems to be stalling around the round number of 227.00. hopefully breaks through that.
Attached Image
  • #1,567
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:37pm Mar 14, 2007 7:37pm
Hello everyone,

Allow me to join you in this great thread although I'm still demo trader .

went short based on the following.

1- price is meeting downtrend on 4hr chart and 38.2 fib
2- previous strong support which is likely to be resistance
3-entered based on DPO divergence on 15mn chart.

I'm not quit sure what's my target going to be yet, probably 23.6 fib, hopefully my demo account will get some pips out of this
Attached Image
  • #1,568
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:39pm Mar 14, 2007 7:39pm
Quoting smnitro1
I have a kind of noob question.
All 3 jpy pairs seem to trade identically.
Looking back about 5 hours ago at usdjpy, eurjpy and gbpjpy if I were to take Phil's 1hr TC only on all 3 pairs long, it looks like I would be up over 400 pips!!!!!
I know that it would be extremly risky and SL's would probably prevented anyone from doing it but wow.
I'm in an eastern time zone and I work during the day. Is it a good idea to trade these pairs after 5:00pm eastern time?
What you have noticed is true as far as it goes--which is to say for right now. At present all 3 pairs are responding to what is happening to the yen, which is the cross currency in all 3. At other times, they respond to the base currency which is the pound, euro or dollar and in that case they behave extremely differently.

Looking at the charts right now, UJ is dropping off of a resistance around 117.70 and is heading toward support at 115.75. While I have not studied cable recently to see what is going on there, at least at the moment, it may be dropping, but in any case is not rising aggressively.

It looks as though GJ may be heading back down again, target the recent low of yesterday.
Attached Image
  • #1,569
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:41pm Mar 14, 2007 7:41pm
Quoting smnitro1
Could you explain how you saw the resistance?
Thanks
If you zoom out in the 1 hour time frame you can draw a trend line from the high arounf Feb. 23rd to the next high around March 12th. Continue that line thru today and it hits around 227.50
Pips are like cabbage, the green ones are the tastiest!
  • #1,570
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:42pm Mar 14, 2007 7:42pm
Quoting saa
here's a chart. it seemed to stall there today, just as it did on the 12th. it's also a round number.
so then I thought, that must be resistance.

it now seems to be stalling around the round number of 227.00. hopefully breaks through that.
NICE!
I got to play with those price levels some more.
Thanks SAA
  • #1,571
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:46pm Mar 14, 2007 7:46pm
Quoting Porche
Hello everyone,

Allow me to join you in this great thread although I'm still demo trader .

went short based on the following.

1- price is meeting downtrend on 4hr chart and 38.2 fib
2- previous strong support which is likely to be resistance
3-entered based on DPO divergence on 15mn chart.

I'm not quit sure what's my target going to be yet, probably 23.6 fib, hopefully my demo account will get some pips out of this
Thanks for your instruction. But, your picture is so unreadable, 23.6 fib is at what price. Can you type it in the message ?
  • #1,572
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:47pm Mar 14, 2007 7:47pm
How long must we stare at our screens waiting for movement? Makes me wonder if this is going to be a strong retracement.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,573
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:48pm Mar 14, 2007 7:48pm
im in on a short right now, stoch shows overbought. chart looks good as well. anyone else?
  • #1,574
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:50pm Mar 14, 2007 7:50pm
Quoting cabbagepicker
If you zoom out in the 1 hour time frame you can draw a trend line from the high arounf Feb. 23rd to the next high around March 12th. Continue that line thru today and it hits around 227.50
Yeah, I started my trendlines on a lower TF.
Thanks alot
  • #1,575
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:52pm Mar 14, 2007 7:52pm
Quoting Sami7
How long must we stare at our screens waiting for movement? Makes me wonder if this is going to be a strong retracement.
i have a laptop in the bedroom AND bathroom
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #1,576
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:54pm Mar 14, 2007 7:54pm
Quoting Monk
i have a laptop in the bedroom AND bathroom
Talk about waiting for a movement!
Pips are like cabbage, the green ones are the tastiest!
  • #1,577
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:54pm Mar 14, 2007 7:54pm
Quoting karma729
im in on a short right now, stoch shows overbought. chart looks good as well. anyone else?
still waiting....maybe 26.70 or 26.50
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #1,578
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:55pm Mar 14, 2007 7:55pm
Quoting moonchild
What you have noticed is true as far as it goes--which is to say for right now. At present all 3 pairs are responding to what is happening to the yen, which is the cross currency in all 3. At other times, they respond to the base currency which is the pound, euro or dollar and in that case they behave extremely differently.

Looking at the charts right now, UJ is dropping off of a resistance around 117.70 and is heading toward support at 115.75. While I have not studied cable recently to see what is going on there, at least at the moment, it may be dropping, but in any case is not rising aggressively.

It looks as though GJ may be heading back down again, target the recent low of yesterday.
Hey Moon,
Looks like a nice Stoch setup happening on the 1hr.
If the 5 pulls back, we could have a nice ride up.
What do you think?
  • #1,579
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:56pm Mar 14, 2007 7:56pm
trader8686

it's not instructions at all mate, it's merely sharing thoughts and seeking advice I'm still trading on demo. apologies for the poor quality of the chart I'm trying to figure out the best format. the 23.6 fib is at 225.13.

Here is a new chart, hopefully will be better
Attached Image
  • #1,580
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:58pm Mar 14, 2007 7:58pm
Quoting Monk
i have a laptop in the bedroom AND bathroom
Great, some comic relief
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
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