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Decent Formula for Setting Stops?

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Dec 30, 2008 1:24pm Dec 30, 2008 1:24pm
  •  Mr. KISS
  • | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Member | 44 Posts
I'm curious what methods/formulas people have found most useful/reliable for setting your stop loss? Please describe it in terms that can be applied to any timeframe.

An example might be if one trades off daily charts (average trade lasts 4-14 days say), they set their stop using ATR(10) off the H4 chart for the number of pips below/above their entry - or something like that.

Not asking if the above is a good method, just throwing it out as an example.
  • Post #2
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  • Dec 30, 2008 1:27pm Dec 30, 2008 1:27pm
  •  LongToBeFree
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2008 | 613 Posts
I'm not an expert with it yet, but I trade on D1 and use 2 x ATR(20) for the daily in order to set my stops, just like the Turtles. And then I make my TP 2 x the Stop for a 2:1 reward ratio. Can make for a heck of a ride when you see it get close to those stops, but it does seem to let the trade "breathe".
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Dec 30, 2008 2:00pm Dec 30, 2008 2:00pm
  •  Mr. KISS
  • | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Member | 44 Posts
2 X ATR(20)? Holy Moly. I looked at the ATR20 on the daily for USDCAD. It's 251. That would be 502 pip stop. Talk about potential for huge drawdown/loss!

2 X ATR(20) on the next chart down, so if you trade daily chart, the 2 X ATR(20) on the H4 for USDCAD right now would be 2 x 83 = 166. I could stomach that for the average trades I do (4-14 days).

You know one thing I'm still experimenting with is the best method for moving the stop up.

In general, when I hit 50% profit target, I remove the fixed stop and put in a trailing stop that starts at 25% profit target. So if my profit target is 200 pips, and I reach +100 pips, I set a stop at -50pips so I'm guaranteed at minimum to reach 25% profit and my profits can run as long as it doesn't retrace more than 50 pips. But like I said I'm still working on perfecting this "strategy."

On the other hand though, there are of course times will it will retrace 50 pips then go WAY up and I'm kicking myself for setting the trailing stop to close.

I'm thinking instead, maybe I should just set a FIXED stop at 25% profit, and then set an alert for say when I hit 75% profit, then move the fixed stop up to 50% profit, then when I hit 100% profit, put in a real tight trailing stop so I can reap more reward if it continues to go up, but I will quickly cash out if the momentum peeters out. The only problem with this method is that if there is a HUGE run-up and then it quickly retraces, I miss out as I can't respond to the alert fast enough (I'm not a day trader).

So maybe this is the way to go, use some sort of ATR formula to set initial fixed stop. Set a limit order at 200-300% profit in case I get lucky. Set alert at 50% profit. When reached, move fixed stop up to 25% profit. Set alert at 100% profit. At 100% profit, remove limit order, set trailing stop at 75-85% profit and ride out the momentum (if there is any left).

I really hate using limit orders since I'm not a day trader. I'm willing to take large drawdowns to whether the "noise". But like I said, if there's a huge spike I better either have a very high limit that gets triggered or a trailing stop that follows it.
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Last Post: Dec 30, 2008 2:19pm Dec 30, 2008 2:19pm
  •  LongToBeFree
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2008 | 613 Posts
Yes, it is quite a swing, but if it worked for the Turtles, who am I to argue

With the Turtles, you're almost constantly adding to your position. You do it at intervals of 0.5 of ATR(20). AND, at the same time, you're moving your stops to the same level. So, the stops are moved as the position is added to. Eventually, some of your stops reach the point where your first order is at/near break even.
 
 
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