The View DownRiver

Well - guess it's fair to say that we had a dam(n) collapse on the river today. My equities portfolio could be heard earlier praying for a hurricane with the accompanying tidal surge (but alas, wrong time of year) - lol.

Had a chance to start reading the journal here this evening - it's apparent my required reading load has been upped several notches. Excellent stuff, DRT. Also looking forward to getting caught up on the blog. Once again, sir, I commend you for your efforts! For all with an open mind, you are an inspiration!

Best regards,
mephisto

I think I will stick to currencies.

Hi down
How are you? Whats your take on Gbp/jpy you think can go long on it now?
Thankx for your insight

Am I right if I say that the yellow lines for the daily are the river levels from the monthly chart or at least they derive from it?

Thank you DRT for the excellent education and ongoing support.

S

Your are quite the scientist. Yes that is correct, the Static levels on the daily chart are derived from the Monthly River Levels on the Price Dist Analysis. They come from value zones.

CAUTION: I do not trade this cross. Use you own judgement
http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertrader/gbpjpy.PNG

Found the answer. Thanks!

I'm not sure if this has been answered before as I'm still reading the first few pages of this thread so I'll go ahead and ask. Do you use the monthly data to gauge direction? For instance for EURUSD above 3063 will be bullish bellow bearish?

BINGO! The old Gal did have some life after all.


The analysis from yesterday was right on the money for this pair today. I hope you were able to take some nice profits on any longs today. I wonder what novice traders were thinking as sje looked old and tired. My guess is the buying was a lot of short covering. What do you think?


Here is the analysis from yesterday..


Traders can continue to look to establish new longs on a move down to the 9251 area. We may get a push through this level down closer to 9200 which would represent an excellent buying opportunity. Set your risk area below 9175, which would indicate that this view is incorrect in the near term.


We got a nice push down to 9212 and I bet most were selling. I hope you went long as we rocketed up 162 points out of this area.


So what now?


Longer term I continue to look for 9594, but we certainly have some wood to chop before we get there.


If you are long stay long, River comes in at 9397 today and we will need to push through this area to continue up to our higher targets. Expect volitilty here. Continue to look for 9443. The area between River and Zone -1 will be critical. I expect a lot of supply here. Try to give this area some room to resolve if your risk tolerance level can handle it, if not there is nothing wrong with taking profits ahead of these levels if we get there and waiting for this area to resolve.


Any move back through 9251 would cancel my short term bullish view and I would recommend to exit longs.


Don't forget to review the PDA charts on this one.


NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED AT 9374


http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...d3-15-2007.PNG

The move up did continue today as anticipated and we continue to hold above River which is coming in today at 3179. Many of us have some nice profits in this trade and have been long since the last week of February. I went back through the archives and we set up longs on February 26 and have added to them as the trade has developed. It has been a slow grind higher, a little different that some may be used to for this pair. It reflects the emotional state of the market and the position of the global central banks in my opinion.


Where are we now?


My view is little changed at the moment. I continue to look for a move to 3353 at this time. We would capture the entire zone 1 of 221 pips if the up move continues. If you review the Price Distribution Chart, you will see that the 3262 area will be a difficult area of supply to push through. Be prepared if we do move up.

If you are long, stay long. The River Level comes in today at 3179, up 10 ticks from yesterday. If we get a close below this level, then that would be a warning that the move up could be fading. Targets today are 3288 and then 3353 where short term traders should cover and take profit. You may decide to take partial profits ahead of 3353 at 3288 and manage the trade from this point.


SHORT TERM BULLISH ABOVE RIVER LEVEL OF 3179


http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...d3-15-2007.PNG

Hi DRT
Great thread. Your approach to trade this markets is excellent.
IMO the stop loss dealing behavior exactely the way this market
asks for. Still sometimes tougher to handle than fix stops.
Is it possible for you to update the swissy if your time allows it?
That's the only pair I trade and must say its not quite easy.
I'm not intraday trader.
Thanks for your great thread. It's the truth about dealing.
Take care and keep on the good work.
Much appreciated

First of all I wish to thank you again for going above and beyond to post the Pound/Yen crosspair. May I request you continue? My question is probably elementary, however, I would like to make sure I understand your analysis, a break above 225.63 would leave us open for 227.98 and beyond that 228.83. Is this correct?

Sami - This is an old analysis. Go to the GBPJPY thread. I posted in there last night for today.

Awesome thank you DRT

Dear DRT,

I am glad that I found your journal, and start to read from the beginning. I am new to Forex, have tried a demo account for 3 months and went on to live account, and had account wiped out twice. I decided not to give up forex trading and continue to search for a master, and I am here. I hope my trading skill will get better, and am trying to "Subscribe to the view", it looks like the link is broken.

Great journal, and keep up your good words to help other.
Regards,
Liu

Thanks Liu. Hope all is going well for you.

EURUSD did close down today about 55 points toward our River Level as anticipated in the analysis from yesterday. If you followed the trading recommendation, you should be short out of the 3386 level.
Remember that this is a countertrend move with longer term value pointing to higher levels near the 1.4400 level. I want to emphasize that you should review the price distribution analysis update for this pair. It is very important to have a broader veiw as we head towards the end of the month.
So what now?
I indicated that we would see stalling from demand at Zone +1 3353 level and we did. You will recall that this area was our long term target on our recent longs. We want to now use this key level as an upward guage for any near term continued strength. A strong move through this area and you should cover shorts.
If you are short, stay short and continue to look for a downward test of the River Level which comes in today at 3271. I recommend covering shorts at this level. This would represent approximately 115 points on our countertrend trade. The River Level should help indicate the next directional move.
Normally, I would recommend that longs be established at this level on the test. I would recommend that we be patient if this area is tested and watch for the next clue on this occassion as I do I do see a possibility that we may continue to trade down to the Transition Level at 3132. If given the opportunity, traders who did not establish shorts yesterday can look to set shorts on a retest of the 3353 Level today and follow the recommendation above.

SHORT TERM NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED
http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...d3-23-2007.PNG

Have you ever heard the advice that you should find a mentor, someone to teach you "how to trade successfully". I am constantly reminded that very few traditional mentors exist in this world. I do know that change is certain. So I ask myself, "If traders can not find mentors traditionally, then how can traders have mentors in this new world we live in"? The answer is Here. Now. What we are creating Here is a new order, a new mastermind, a new way to find guidance in a New Age. The Information Age, and much like the Industrial Age, it will have a profound impact on your life in the next several years. Much more than we can imagine without understanding Universal Laws. It is a new beginning that we have to harness and embrace. After all, we created it. All of us. We may never meet in the traditional physical sense, but is that wrong? We are connected in the Spiritual Sense which is ultimately powerful. We are just Here. Now. Helping each other the best way we know how. It is supposed to be this way, we created it.

Hello Gents,

unfortunately It's kinda hard to follow the thread with months of delay,
the posted links and external page of DRT is no more availble, also I cannot find any charts anymore explaining the setups.
Can anyone help ?

Thanks
PP

Hi
Have read this great thread -even without the the links and charts- has anyone got anymore info?
Many thanks





Links/charts not available
Hello Gents,

unfortunately It's kinda hard to follow the thread with months of delay,
the posted links and external page of DRT is no more availble, also I cannot find any charts anymore explaining the setups.
Can anyone help ?

Thanks
PP

Hi there, your market profile does not load up is there any way you can send me via skype : id is : maxfxt thanks