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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #1,101
  • Dec 28, 2008 1:36am Dec 28, 2008 1:36am
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  • #1,102
  • Edited 10:28am Dec 28, 2008 2:13am | Edited 10:28am
thanks!
  • #1,103
  • Dec 28, 2008 7:32am Dec 28, 2008 7:32am
Hi, Rocroy. I agree with your EUR/USD count.

But, based on the alternation principle, shouldn't we be expecting a sharp Wave 4 retracement given that Wave 2 went sideways (and took its own sweet time doing so)?
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #1,104
  • Dec 28, 2008 9:48am Dec 28, 2008 9:48am
UsdJpy chart,,

It looks good for short trade,, wt u guys think?
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  • #1,105
  • Dec 28, 2008 9:57am Dec 28, 2008 9:57am
Well, alternation is one of the guidelines, so it often takes place. But not always. Also, the guideline does not say "how sharp" corr is or "how long" does the sideways moves take. It is just a generic principle.

So in this case those next moves that I sketched feel imo most probable, considering other pairs as well, like swissie.

If that support for the euro fails, then there is the next support at 1.3150, and if that fails too then there is a good reason to re-evaluate the count.
Other options for the euro count exist, like FXoffshore and Blue have earlier showed.

R

Quoting doji
Hi, Rocroy. I agree with your EUR/USD count.

But, based on the alternation principle, shouldn't we be expecting a sharp Wave 4 retracement given that Wave 2 went sideways (and took its own sweet time doing so)?
  • #1,106
  • Dec 28, 2008 10:05am Dec 28, 2008 10:05am
what do you say about this count on the monthly chart?
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  • #1,107
  • Dec 28, 2008 11:27am Dec 28, 2008 11:27am
Quoting Blue bottle
UsdJpy chart,,

It looks good for short trade,, wt u guys think?
I share the same view, only that for me to be a setup it is needed that price goes a bit higher in the 91.3-91.5 price zone where we have a good confluence.
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #1,108
  • Dec 28, 2008 2:33pm Dec 28, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting soso
I share the same view, only that for me to be a setup it is needed that price goes a bit higher in the 91.3-91.5 price zone where we have a good confluence.

I am a newbie with EW and have been trying to learn from everyone here. This is my first time posting a chart so here goes. I was watching the 91.25 area for wave c of 4 to end. Any input on my count is appreciated. Just trying to determine how my learning is going.
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  • #1,109
  • Dec 28, 2008 4:46pm Dec 28, 2008 4:46pm
Quoting el grande
IMHO I think USDCAD is still in a wave 4 of a wave 3 or possibly forming a BARRIER TRIANGLE or a FLAT Triangle on the DAILY CHART. THAT is just my take on this pair now. BUT I would not trade/BUY this until it BREAKS out from that 1.3100 level.

THE PURPLE (IV) is too short in time in relation to the purple (II). That is why I think the (IV) is not yet finished. BUT once price breaks the 1.3100 level, then I would take that cue as the Looney being in the wave 5 already.

NOTE that there is a probability IMO that wave 5 will not be that powerful...
Hi el grande,

Would you be able to post your current count for cable?
  • #1,110
  • Dec 28, 2008 8:19pm Dec 28, 2008 8:19pm
Quoting Barak's pip
what do you say about this count on the monthly chart?
Barak

Your wave 4 has overlapped too far into wave 1 and 2 territory. Wave 4 overlap with w1 and w2 is only seen in a triangle of a Leading Diagonal ( wave "a" or w1 with a 5-3-5-3-5 structure ) or an Ending Diagonal ( wave "c" or w5 with a 3-3-3-3-3 structure ).

IMHO that could either be a 1-2-1-2 towards building a w3 or possibly building a wave "b" of a FLAT.

EG
  • #1,111
  • Dec 29, 2008 3:34am Dec 29, 2008 3:34am
EURUHSD 4H.

I am looking at this current move up as being a correction. Near 1.438 is a good confluence level and that's where I will look for a short setup.
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  • #1,112
  • Dec 29, 2008 3:43am Dec 29, 2008 3:43am
Quoting swiftpip
I am a newbie with EW and have been trying to learn from everyone here. This is my first time posting a chart so here goes. I was watching the 91.25 area for wave c of 4 to end. Any input on my count is appreciated. Just trying to determine how my learning is going.
Your count looks good swiftpip although if you try to be a perfectionist then you'd have a hard time subdividing w3 in 5 impulses.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #1,113
  • Edited 6:21am Dec 29, 2008 5:49am | Edited 6:21am
I'm new to this thread so pls. excuse my ignorance.

I saw the beautifully attached charts that show the EWs. Are these done manually or you have good indicators that generate these lines automatically. I was trying to check the early posts of this thread but I found none.

Any pointers?
  • #1,114
  • Dec 29, 2008 7:39am Dec 29, 2008 7:39am
Quoting soso
Your count looks good swiftpip although if you try to be a perfectionist then you'd have a hard time subdividing w3 in 5 impulses.
Thanks Soso. I feel like I am getting the hang of it until I see price movements like this morning. Now I am looking at the charts trying to see how this move in USDJPY fits into the counts, or how the counts fit into this move.

Tim
  • #1,115
  • Dec 29, 2008 7:44am Dec 29, 2008 7:44am
Quoting Walad100100
I'm new to this thread so pls. excuse my ignorance.

I saw the beautifully attached charts that show the EWs. Are these done manually or you have good indicators that generate these lines automatically. I was trying to check the early posts of this thread but I found none.

Any pointers?
As a fellow newbie, the charts with the counts and labeling are done manually. I have been studying EW now for about 5 months and can tell you it takes time and patience to learn, and I am far from done with learning.
Good luck in your trading.
Tim
  • #1,116
  • Dec 29, 2008 8:07am Dec 29, 2008 8:07am
I believe you swiftpip, as I am aware of the theortical part of this methodology of trading. For that reason I was asking about if our people here are using some indicator in order to mitigate the burden of the EW analysis at least.

Thanks Tim.
  • #1,117
  • Edited 3:57pm Dec 29, 2008 1:39pm | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting soso
EURUHSD 4H. I am looking at this current move up as being a correction. Near 1.438 is a good confluence level and that's where I will look for a short setup.
I agree. The bearish correction since Dec 19 1.3822 has been in 3 waves, and has taken too much time (plus overlaps) to be an impulse. Now the proof is in with todays move below 1.4018 eliminating any upward impulse count possibilities.

My first entry target is the next retracement into the 1.31 range, to catch the 6 months of wave (C) down to 1.16 range.

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  • #1,118
  • Dec 29, 2008 4:32pm Dec 29, 2008 4:32pm
Quoting FXoffshore
I agree. The bearish correction since Dec 19 1.3822 has been in 3 waves, and has taken too much time (plus overlaps) to be an impulse. Now the proof is in with todays move below 1.4018 eliminating any upward impulse count possibilities.

My first entry target is the next retracement into the 1.31 range, to catch the 6 months of wave (C) down to 1.16 range.

Attachment
hey ,

so , if I got you ok , you think we haven't seen yet wave no. 3 . as in the chart attached ?
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  • #1,119
  • Dec 30, 2008 6:05pm Dec 30, 2008 6:05pm
Quoting Barak's pip
hey , so , if I got you ok , you think we haven't seen yet wave no. 3 . as in the chart attached ?
I favor that the fall from 1.60 to 1.23 was (A), however it could be 1. My second choice is A of (A) of [C].

I think we are working out a (B) wave now. It has the price height required at .618, but needs weeks more time - as I believe wave B must be (at least) equal to A in time or more. B cannot be less than A for time, unless it is in a triangle, so that means a lot of choppy/sideways price action, but favoring down in January.

If I look at the monthly and weekly charts, Eur/Usd has been in A-B-C waves since the 1970's at least. The monthly charts look like a test of .80 is possible over the next 5-10 years. USD swings in 7-10 year cycles in the past.
  • #1,120
  • Dec 30, 2008 6:43pm Dec 30, 2008 6:43pm
Quoting FXoffshore
I favor that the fall from 1.60 to 1.23 was (A), however it could be 1. My second choice is A of (A) of [C].

I think we are working out a (B) wave now. It has the price height required at .618, but needs weeks more time - as I believe wave B must be (at least) equal to A in time or more. B cannot be less than A for time, unless it is in a triangle, so that means a lot of choppy/sideways price action, but favoring down in January.

If I look at the monthly and weekly charts, Eur/Usd has been in A-B-C waves since the 1970's at least. The monthly...
hi again ,

it's a good point , when you look at it that way ,a lot of pairs are in a-b-c's or 1-2-3's for years , check out usdjpy .

for the nearest future , I preffer the plan in the attached chat - when a break of 1.3825 will change it , but for now I'll be thinking it as long when the final approval will be a breakout of 1.4720 ... any thoughts ?

happy new year !!!
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