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For the New Year - An edge

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 24, 2008 3:27am Dec 24, 2008 3:27am
Those of you that know me will know by now that although I trade I also create systems that have an edge or at least a thought out mythology.

they are always mechanical in thier approach I post them here because they need to be looked at changed adapted criticized or applauded...its the only way forward.

Im looking at an indicator at the moment that can be used on any swap any time frame .

It places arrows on your chart whenever a signal triggers .. but one thing I want to make quite clear I don't care if it repaints what I care out is HOW many times it repaints.

Take a simple moving average cross 13ma down through 21 ma for example we code it to produce an arrow and we go short but the market goes up and we lose 13 down through 21 again another arrow another trade this one wins...the 1st losing arrow is still there...all repaint does is remove that losing arrow if we trade it in REAL time and take every trade as long as it doesn't repaint every arrow and the entries are good we have what is called an edge

I will post 2 charts one is eurusd the other gbpusd Iv watched this now for only 1 hour as Ive only been told about the indicator.

I have placed manualy a black arrow on the signals as they appreared and have done so on a 1min chart...to high light any repainting.

Im also not concerned with arrow appearing or disappearing after a refresh its the arrows as they appear live that matters here ..not what happens after

The coloured back grounds are just the different sessions

Beige for Asian
Blue for UK
Honey dew for US

That way I can look at the market movement an see volatile periods easier..ie looking back 4 weeks at the 1st hour of US will be allot easier with the colour back grounds which can be changed if you wish

Any way the charts.....

Paulus
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  • #2
  • Dec 24, 2008 4:04am Dec 24, 2008 4:04am
Thanks, Paulus.

I'm always interested in gaining more of an edge over the markets.

Have a great holiday.
  • #3
  • Dec 24, 2008 4:11am Dec 24, 2008 4:11am
Hi Paulus,

Merry Xmas and happy new year.

Are you still trying 1 mins scalping based on OAN's system? How's that going?
  • #4
  • Dec 24, 2008 5:46am Dec 24, 2008 5:46am
When do we get to try it?
  • #5
  • Dec 25, 2008 2:38pm Dec 25, 2008 2:38pm
indicators dont give you an edge money management does indicators give you past info
  • #6
  • Dec 25, 2008 2:58pm Dec 25, 2008 2:58pm
Paulus is that an indicator your using to change the background colors to coincide with market times?

thx,
todd
  • #7
  • Dec 25, 2008 8:02pm Dec 25, 2008 8:02pm
Interesting shading for time
  • #8
  • Dec 26, 2008 5:31am Dec 26, 2008 5:31am
Hi

yes the colours change with the various markets,you can alter the times and the colours it helps me spot moves in the past

For example look at the chart at the dark brown that is the Asian session notice the small low volatility range.

If I was trading a system that didn't like big candles or high volatility thats the period I would trade

Now look at US open and UK open big bars and within 2-3 bars a nice move occurs

Or as the block also represents the high and low of each of the markets daily ranges I can tell easily that the week leading up the Xmas break was a very low range day as the blocks are very small

here it is have a play..

Paulus
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  • #9
  • Dec 26, 2008 12:03pm Dec 26, 2008 12:03pm
Could you please post the indicator which shows the arrows ?
Would be great. Thank you.
  • #10
  • Dec 26, 2008 12:12pm Dec 26, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting harold4x
indicators dont give you an edge money management does indicators give you past info
Money Management does not give you an edge. The best money management can do is optimise an existing edge.

why do people still continue to spread such ridiculous rumours ?
  • #11
  • Dec 26, 2008 12:38pm Dec 26, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting Razzle
Money Management does not give you an edge. The best money management can do is optimise an existing edge.

why do people still continue to spread such ridiculous rumours ?
Because everybody wants easy answers.
Neither MM or Indicators will give you an edge, but they may help you exploit one.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #12
  • Edited 11:26pm Dec 26, 2008 1:16pm | Edited 11:26pm
Quoting Razzle
Money Management does not give you an edge. The best money management can do is optimise an existing edge.

why do people still continue to spread such ridiculous rumours ?
Razzle, I totally agree with you.

why do people still continue to spread such ridiculous rumours ?
Sorry if this sounds either harsh or conceited, and I'm not targeting anybody in particular, but if 95% of (would-be) traders supposedly lose, then it's probably reasonable to assume that a similar percentage of the folk who post here don't really know what they're talking about. Possibly more if we consider that many successful traders don't bother themselves with posting in forums. I recall reading a post by a trader with 30 years' experience who actually suggested that we fade the advice given in forums.

My own trading results have improved significantly since I disregarded the 'textbook' cliches that are bandied about, and started thinking for myself.
  • #13
  • Edited 9:08pm Dec 30, 2008 9:00pm | Edited 9:08pm
Quoting hanover
Razzle, I totally agree with you.

why do people still continue to spread such ridiculous rumours ?
Sorry if this sounds either harsh or conceited, and I'm not targeting anybody in particular, but if 95% of (would-be) traders supposedly lose, then it's probably reasonable to assume that a similar percentage of the folk who post here don't really know what they're talking about. Possibly more if we consider that many successful traders don't bother themselves with posting in forums. I recall reading a post...
I agree.

Good money management + unprofitable system = prolonged agony.

This is the reason (in my opinion) why so many traders seem to fail. (Taken directly from the post you refer to above.)

All of the professional traders I know, whether they trade forex or futures markets, do not make "so much per day". That is a phrase used by marketers, because they know what beginners are looking for, and that is a steady income so they can get rid of their jobs. Money from the market that you can count on does not come steady or nicely "so much per day". Real traders make profits, budget their expenses, save some profits, add some profits to their accounts for further building of the account, etc. Just like any business, which is what real trading is.
  • #14
  • Dec 31, 2008 11:05am Dec 31, 2008 11:05am
I would add that what passes as conventional wisdom concerning money management isn't all that everyone thinks it is. The cliche of don't risk more than 1-3% per trade is very limited in its scope. There are creative ways of dealing with mm.
  • #15
  • Jan 1, 2009 9:26pm Jan 1, 2009 9:26pm
Quoting Dopey
I would add that what passes as conventional wisdom concerning money management isn't all that everyone thinks it is. The cliche of don't risk more than 1-3% per trade is very limited in its scope. There are creative ways of dealing with mm.
Agreed. I suspect that the "2% rule" was devised as a safe and simple approach for newbies. The higher expectancy/edge/profit factor is, the higher position sizes one can justifiably use, even arguably moving away from fixed fractional. A Monte Carlo simulation can be useful in helping determine optimum position sizes.

There's a good thread on MM here.
  • #16
  • Jan 1, 2009 10:32pm Jan 1, 2009 10:32pm
Quoting Dopey
I would add that what passes as conventional wisdom concerning money management isn't all that everyone thinks it is. The cliche of don't risk more than 1-3% per trade is very limited in its scope. There are creative ways of dealing with mm.
Im guessing that the "creative" part we would find very interesting to learn about, thats just my oPinion though, lol. Any hints Dopey?

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #17
  • Jan 1, 2009 11:39pm Jan 1, 2009 11:39pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Im guessing that the "creative" part we would find very interesting to learn about, thats just my oPinion though, lol. Any hints Dopey?

Leon
There is nothing new under the sun here, scale up when times are good, scale back when they are bad. Here is one approach http://www.futurestech.com.au/Thoughts.htm#Trade%20Size
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #18
  • Jan 2, 2009 12:41am Jan 2, 2009 12:41am
Quoting Craig
There is nothing new under the sun here, scale up when times are good, scale back when they are bad. Here is one approach http://www.futurestech.com.au/Thoughts.htm#Trade%20Size
That is an excellent method and chaffcomb is definitely one you can trust.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #19
  • Jan 2, 2009 1:40am Jan 2, 2009 1:40am
Mr. E. Doe,

How many pips did the 7/7 bring you in 08?
  • #20
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:42am Jan 3, 2009 1:42am
Quoting Paulus
I also create systems that have an edge or at least a thought out mythology.
freudian slip
BTC Return This Year: na
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