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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #1,081
  • Dec 21, 2008 7:43pm Dec 21, 2008 7:43pm
Quoting FXoffshore
Hi Ivanhoe. Welcome. You are in the right thread.

May I suggest you should study the Elliot Wave Principle - Robert Prechter, or some other reliable source to get the basics down.


Blue Bottle posted this chart from Prechters online course a dozen posts ago.
Thanks for your help FXoffshore. I'm reading Prechter now and see I've got my work cut out for me.
  • #1,082
  • Dec 22, 2008 7:18pm Dec 22, 2008 7:18pm
EurUsd chart

2 possibilities..
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  • #1,083
  • Dec 22, 2008 8:13pm Dec 22, 2008 8:13pm
hi all,

UsdCad daily chart..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,084
  • Dec 22, 2008 8:14pm Dec 22, 2008 8:14pm
Usdcad 4h chart
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  • #1,085
  • Dec 22, 2008 9:54pm Dec 22, 2008 9:54pm
Well, talking about corrections, take a look at Prechter's book on page 153 which has a dow count starting from 1780, and you could say that "we haven't seen nothing yet". Maybe this is the early beginning of a major correction, who knows? But the circumstances for that are slowly building up. Climate change probably has a role as a starter of the correction.

Quoting pkimnyc
dow weekly count. looks like we are screwed.
  • #1,086
  • Dec 22, 2008 11:24pm Dec 22, 2008 11:24pm
I expect we have seen the high for the Euro retracement, and should see another 5 large wave impulse as (C) continue lower. I can count the first small 5 waves down now as 1, and perhaps the final v of c wave of 2 is close to complete. That opens the door for a 3rd wave down, one of the best trade setups.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,087
  • Dec 23, 2008 1:44am Dec 23, 2008 1:44am
EurChf chart..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,088
  • Dec 23, 2008 7:38am Dec 23, 2008 7:38am
a lot of attention to the chf , what do you think about this count?
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  • #1,089
  • Dec 24, 2008 11:04am Dec 24, 2008 11:04am
have a great holiday guys, and many pips to us in year 2009.
  • #1,090
  • Dec 24, 2008 6:04pm Dec 24, 2008 6:04pm
happy holiday to all..
Attached Image
  • #1,091
  • Dec 26, 2008 10:58am Dec 26, 2008 10:58am
Quoting Blue bottle
hi all,

UsdCad daily chart..

CORRECT me if I am wrong. BUT is this one of those rare instances when a WAVE 2 forms a TRIANGLE?

WAVE 2 I think should end at "c" while "d" and "e" could be wave 3.1 and 3.2 . AT least as far as I can see and if I remember the guidelines. besides, check your oscillator, a triangle on the chart should also show a triangle on the oscillator
  • #1,092
  • Dec 26, 2008 1:24pm Dec 26, 2008 1:24pm
Here's a good eliot wave chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,093
  • Dec 26, 2008 2:34pm Dec 26, 2008 2:34pm
el grande,

did wave "5" started already or we are still in wave "4" ??

Sixer

http://www.boersentrendonline.de/upload/usdcad1.gif

http://www.boersentrendonline.de/upload/usdcad.gif
  • #1,094
  • Edited Dec 27, 2008 1:34pm Dec 26, 2008 8:27pm | Edited Dec 27, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting Sixer
el grande,

did wave "5" started already or we are still in wave "4" ??

Sixer

http://www.boersentrendonline.de/upload/usdcad1.gif
IMHO I think USDCAD is still in a wave 4 of a wave 3 or possibly forming a BARRIER TRIANGLE or a FLAT Triangle on the DAILY CHART. THAT is just my take on this pair now. BUT I would not trade/BUY this until it BREAKS out from that 1.3100 level.

THE PURPLE (IV) is too short in time in relation to the purple (II). That is why I think the (IV) is not yet finished. BUT once price breaks the 1.3100 level, then I would take that cue as the Looney being in the wave 5 already.

NOTE that there is a probability IMO that wave 5 will not be that powerful as it has retraced to within 50-60% of wave 3.

Anyway, I prefer to trade the CABLE. CONSIDER this as just a rambling from a trader.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,095
  • Dec 27, 2008 2:14am Dec 27, 2008 2:14am
I have a (probably silly) question for all elliotticians. Suppose every trader on the planet became one, how would the markets change? Will EW analysis still be a viable method for trading the markets (in the same way automated systems are known to degenerate) when used by too many people?

Inputs greatly appreciated...
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #1,096
  • Dec 27, 2008 3:03am Dec 27, 2008 3:03am
Just my opinion, but markets would still function as they always do
only difference is the population would cease to reproduce and
test tube babies would become commonplace.

In the Euro drop from 160 to 123, some saw 1 2 3 waves, then a triangle which should have been terminal,
were looking for that to be the 4th wave, then awaiting a 5th, suddenly, the market ran up 2000+ pips in just a few days,
violated the price of wave 1 and are now looking at maybe 160 to 123 was an ABC 3 wave correction of an "A"
and then this last 2000 pip run up was either an "A" of a "B" or an "X" of a double zigzag
to set up another ABC correction down to the teens. Or what about if this latest leg up was a 2nd wave
of an impulse and the 3rd of a third down is about to take hold.

What if the whole thing was a correction (A-B-C down to 123, kinda rhymes, huh?) and the market wants to take 160 out ?
Then the base from the 120's would be the begining of another bullish impulse (This would confound the greatest # of people).

Okay, so SAY WHAT ?

There were atleast five possible ways to look at the same chart and who knows if any of them are correct.
There are other interpretations too.

So of course even if everybody became an EW'er, markets would still go up and down,
the herd would go one way then go the other, most would usually get it wrong, but not everyone,
and Prechter, Nealy, and about a handful of other dudes would sell a bunch of books.

That's about all. That and the test tube babies.
  • #1,097
  • Dec 27, 2008 1:32pm Dec 27, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting el grande
CORRECT me if I am wrong. BUT is this one of those rare instances when a WAVE 2 forms a TRIANGLE?

WAVE 2 I think should end at "c" while "d" and "e" could be wave 3.1 and 3.2 . AT least as far as I can see and if I remember the guidelines. besides, check your oscillator, a triangle on the chart should also show a triangle on the oscillator
I'm glad that your are here El grande..

Initially i counted this up move as correction and wB goes as triangle. When i redraw it as impulse waves and w2 as abc, it leads to many (i guess 3) nested impulse waves and truncate 5th wave.

So changed w2 as triangle, then it matches well with charts, with sharp w4 retrace. Very rarely count triangle w2, if i'm not wrong its 1st time. I might be wrong too..

Can i request ur chart please, since a picture speak thousand words.
  • #1,098
  • Edited 2:58pm Dec 27, 2008 1:51pm | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting Blue bottle
I'm glad that your are here El grande..

Initially i counted this up move as correction and wB goes as triangle. When i redraw it as impulse waves and w2 as abc, it leads to many (i guess 3) nested impulse waves and truncate 5th wave.

So changed w2 as triangle, then it matches well with charts, with sharp w4 retrace. Very rarely count triangle w2, if i'm not wrong its 1st time. I might be wrong too..

Can i request ur chart please, since a picture speak thousand words.
BB

I did not say you were wrong because you may have seen something I failed to see. Anyway, I posted my earlier chart count in my previous post.

But here I am attaching a revised count using the Stochastics as a guide.

However, you will see that if I start with the weekly count, my earlier count on the Daily will be revised. The last 2 charts is the alternative count.

EG
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  • #1,099
  • Dec 27, 2008 6:40pm Dec 27, 2008 6:40pm
Quoting toshi
Just my opinion, but markets would still function as they always do
only difference is the population would cease to reproduce and
test tube babies would become commonplace.

In the Euro drop from 160 to 123, some saw 1 2 3 waves, then a triangle which should have been terminal,
were looking for that to be the 4th wave, then awaiting a 5th, suddenly, the market ran up 2000+ pips in just a few days,
violated the price of wave 1 and are now looking at maybe 160 to 123 was an ABC 3 wave correction of an "A"
and then this last 2000 pip run up was...
LOL! Now you got me something new to think about...test-tube babies!

Btw, I'm glad to see my countryman "el grande" posting here at FF again.

Happy, profitable 2009 all...
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #1,100
  • Dec 27, 2008 11:14pm Dec 27, 2008 11:14pm
cable chartt
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