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You Must Be Experienced Trader!!!

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 24, 2017 7:23pm Dec 21, 2008 12:38pm | Edited Jan 24, 2017 7:23pm
t
  • #2
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:26pm Dec 21, 2008 2:26pm
I take it you want to keep this EA to yourself and this other programmer right?

I have a better backtest than you!

$97 billion

$189 billion
  • #3
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:30pm Dec 21, 2008 2:30pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
I take it you want to keep this EA to yourself and this other programmer right?

I have a better backtest than you!

$97 billion

$189 billion
how this ea`s perform in live ????? because backtest ........
  • #4
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:42pm Dec 21, 2008 2:42pm
Live they do ok, but nowhere near the backtested results, obviously. But that's my point.

If anyone shows a backtest, I ask you put my backtests next to them. It only goes to show how easily I can curve-fit any EA.
  • #5
  • Dec 21, 2008 3:33pm Dec 21, 2008 3:33pm
Please differentiate my EA from some thing like this.... this is from my other EA with huge stop loss. This is joke and any one can produce something like this if they know little bit of coding!!!


http://forum.mql4.com/c/forum/2008/1...ster_small.gif


To judge my EA better you must down load the attachments of back testing results and look carefully with stop loss and take profit level and winning trade to losing trade ratio.

With 1:1 risk to reward ratio (stoploss and take profit level around 100) without money management( i.e fixed lot of 0.2 lot) and no martingale system, if the results is something like this, then it is different story from above joke EA!!!


. http://forum.mql4.com/c/forum/2008/1...ster_small.gif


Adding money management can increase slope of the profit but I always prefer not to put money managment becasue I think it should be only human increasing lot size not EA.

Thanks !!
  • #6
  • Dec 21, 2008 3:42pm Dec 21, 2008 3:42pm
You're missing my point auto.

Forget the equity curve, notice that my EA went from $10,000 to billions. Your no-SL EA only went from $10,000 to ~40,000. If you pay attention to the orders in the screenshots, you'll notice that there is a very tight stoploss in that trade.

Further, these are only backtests. As I've clearly proven, it's very possible to manipulate a backtest. How do we know you're not doing the same? Simply "because you said so" doesn't always cut it in the court of public opinion.
  • #7
  • Dec 21, 2008 4:17pm Dec 21, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
You're missing my point auto.

Forget the equity curve, notice that my EA went from $10,000 to billions. Your no-SL EA only went from $10,000 to ~40,000. If you pay attention to the orders in the screenshots, you'll notice that there is a very tight stoploss in that trade.

Further, these are only backtests. As I've clearly proven, it's very possible to manipulate a backtest. How do we know you're not doing the same? Simply "because you said so" doesn't always cut it in the court of public opinion.
Hi Ronald

Would you be able to show your EA back testing results ? Please post it here.
Does it have a stop loss ? and If so then how much ? is it trend following system like mine? or scalping ?


I will be very impressed if a trend following system can produce good results with tight stop loss plus risk to reward ratio =1 .

Please show it for me, I will really appreciate it.

There are many good EAs and I would love to surprise once more from you!!!
  • #8
  • Dec 21, 2008 5:18pm Dec 21, 2008 5:18pm
Have a good look at the links above. Each backtest has its own thread.
  • #9
  • Dec 21, 2008 6:18pm Dec 21, 2008 6:18pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Have a good look at the links above. Each backtest has its own thread.
Ok , within five months you have opend incrediable number of 100,000 orders.

You have the consecutive loss of 280.

To be honest, not that impressive. You have to compare apple to apple.

Can not compare your scalping system to my trend following system.

It is totally different. Consecutive loss of 280..... good luck mate!!!!

But once again , I will be really apprecaited if you can bring us an EA with trend following system and achieved risk to reward ratio 1 with 65% winning trade ratio.


One more points about back testing,

Even if it is back testing , if the EA open the oder based on bar 1 information
(not the latest bar).

There is high probability back testing results is almost the same as real one because it is independent from tick simulation of strategy tester.

anyway, thanks for your point. I enjoyed it!!!
  • #10
  • Dec 21, 2008 6:54pm Dec 21, 2008 6:54pm
You didn't read everything =D


Ok , within five months you have opend incrediable number of 100,000 orders.

You have the consecutive loss of 280. Keep in mind that Metatrader has a max lot size limitation of 9999 lots. Some signals required millions of lots, and thus, had to split the lots into multiple trades. Largest consecutive losing signals I think is 3.

To be honest, not that impressive. You have to compare apple to apple. What part isn't apple-to-apple?

Can not compare your scalping system to my trend following system. Not scalping =D. Average TPs range from 50 to 100, largest being 400.

It is totally different. Consecutive loss of 280..... good luck mate!!!!
Lol look again =D

But once again , I will be really apprecaited if you can bring us an EA with trend following system and achieved risk to reward ratio 1 with 65% winning trade ratio. Risk:Reward is more like 1:5 - 1:10. I agree my winning percentage is slightly lower, (57% in the 97 billion and 61% in the 189 billion) but multiply the Risk:Reward by the win percentage, and my backtests come out ahead.


One more points about back testing,

Even if it is back testing , if the EA open the oder based on bar 1 information
(not the latest bar). I don't think so, because many trades happened during a bar, not at beginning/end of a bar.

There is high probability back testing results is almost the same as real one because it is independent from tick simulation of strategy tester.

anyway, thanks for your point. I enjoyed it!!!
  • #11
  • Dec 21, 2008 7:56pm Dec 21, 2008 7:56pm
Hi RR, Auto,

I think there is understood from EA programmer that backtest is not the ultimate results for saying the EA good or not.

It really depends on your EA strategy and see whether the backtest is good enough to work as per the EA coded without optimisation.

After that, get some forward test for few days. Then just compare the back test with the forward test results for the same period of time.
That's it. It will show how much it differ.

I had tested EA this way. Some of my EA the back test is differ so much from the forward test. Some EA are very close even at the time trade taken is similar between backtest and forward test.

To me it depends on how you coded your EA.
  • #12
  • Dec 22, 2008 3:57am Dec 22, 2008 3:57am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
You didn't read everything =D


Ok , within five months you have opend incrediable number of 100,000 orders.

You have the consecutive loss of 280. Keep in mind that Metatrader has a max lot size limitation of 9999 lots. Some signals required millions of lots, and thus, had to split the lots into multiple trades. Largest consecutive losing signals I think is 3.

To be honest, not that impressive. You have to compare apple to apple. What part isn't apple-to-apple?

Can not compare your scalping system...
Hi Ronald

Do not get me worng, Without having full code, it is difficult to judge about EA. It is the same for yours. What I am saying to your EA is , it is not quite normal to send 100.000 orders in 5 months with huge lot size. Although you insist it is not scalping system, the brokers would not not like your EA much and there is good chance you could be banned from the brogage firm. Anyway it is your own issue.

Please come back to me with back testing results , when you put down your risk ratio equal to reward ratio for your EA (i.e. risk to reward ratio = 1:1 but stop loss must be around 100 or less than 100).

Let's see even it is profitable or not!!!

akukaya, thanks for your points. You seems to be very good coder!!!

Just like, you mentioned , coders require to write code in the direction where you can measure your outcome. Without this in your mind , you are a just coders among many.

I am running several EAs (some are commercial and some are my own EA, it includs martingale, scalping, trend following system , forecasting based systems and some high class EAs too ) on my live and demo accounts. I have enough knowledge about EAs and back testings.

But in general, trend following systems are much more free from discrepancy between back testing and actual results but surely you need to make you are not using some trick based on bar 0 tick history which is back tester is not reliably simulate the price movements !!!

But tell me Ronald , would you be able to use a EA from a company(for example) , insists the EA is very good in real trading. But when you actually back testing the EA in modelling 90 % quality, the EA went huge losses.

Do you have a gut to use this poor performing EA on back testing in live accounts ? Especially its reward to risk ratio is something like 1:10.

I would not even bother to use this EA to put to my live accouts.

Thanks for reading. Please do not foreget to post your back testing resutls with your EA with risk to reward to ratio 1:1. You can do it just for fun for your self and for others !!!!!
  • #13
  • Dec 22, 2008 10:50am Dec 22, 2008 10:50am
Thing about brokers Auto, where do retail brokers make their money? Spread!

Brokers are an intermediary. They get their prices from the interbank, add their spread, and then pass on the prices to us. More trades, converts to more revenues. From November 2007 till November 2008, my EAs and I posted 15,643 trades. Let's assume a reasonable average spread of 3 pips. (Adjust as necessary). That's 46929 pips in a year. At 1 lot, that's $469,290 in a year. My broker made more money than I did. They have no reason to be upset with me.


I too run several EAs 34 of the in fact, and I openly state on my profile here on FF that 32 of those EAs I have put on this forum for free, source code included. I fully appreciate that you also trade with EAs profitably. I don't appreciate how you publicly post your private intentions of wanting to create a private EA.

As for your example regarding the advertised EA, it's very possible that I would. It depends on the underlying logic for a trading system. I would have the balls to use the EA, but only if I can understand the underlying logic. I am not stupid enough to blindly trade with a black box commercial EA like the over 30,000 buyers for FAPS. (or so they claim)

Also, keep in mind that not all commercial EAs have a Risk:Reward of 10:1 =D. That's not much of an apples-to-apples comparison, is it?

You know, given the time of year, why don't you spread the holiday spirit. Put up the EAs, source code and all! Give those who are not as fortunate traders as we are a chance to enter those pearly gates we call "retirement".

Also, I would like to point out that back in August, you were quite the newbie. I would be very surprised to see someone go from newbie to pro in four months. But, at least I'll be gracious enough to let you have your say. Miracles can happen.
  • #14
  • Dec 22, 2008 8:43pm Dec 22, 2008 8:43pm
Hey Ronald


I just would like to say, Keep up the good work, I believe your persistence will pay off.


Best regards



Dale
  • #15
  • Dec 22, 2008 9:54pm Dec 22, 2008 9:54pm
If you've already made an money-making EA.
Just mortgage the house and triple the winning in few months.

Why still need to program EA for free?
If everyone believes it, it will work.
  • #16
  • Dec 23, 2008 2:40am Dec 23, 2008 2:40am
Quoting EAprogrammer
If you've already made an money-making EA.
Just mortgage the house and triple the winning in few months.

Why still need to program EA for free?
I can do it cause I have income source from my EA and others.

If you do not have income source , you need to go out for part time work or you need to work for some thing like El**service.com to get paid.

I also have an ambition as a coder so I am keep going!!!
  • #17
  • Dec 23, 2008 2:54am Dec 23, 2008 2:54am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Thing about brokers Auto, where do retail brokers make their money? Spread!

Brokers are an intermediary. They get their prices from the interbank, add their spread, and then pass on the prices to us. More trades, converts to more revenues. From November 2007 till November 2008, my EAs and I posted 15,643 trades. Let's assume a reasonable average spread of 3 pips. (Adjust as necessary). That's 46929 pips in a year. At 1 lot, that's $469,290 in a year. My broker made more money than I did. They have no reason to be upset with me.


I too run...
Young man!!

Please never say that you have done somthing more than others , Never ever.

As I write free code for others. I helped others writing code and debugging and their experiments for free for a whole year.

It is real charity man.

I have spin around with various EA systems including scalping , harmonic , elliot wave , trend following system, martingale, break out system and some academic method.

I am bit fed up with this now and Look for other challeging task!!!

That is the sprit of my post.

and It is Win Win Deal for myself and trader.
  • #18
  • Dec 23, 2008 3:23am Dec 23, 2008 3:23am
Ron, if you really want to say something productive in this thread for others ,

You can emphasize the importance of risk to reward ratio here like I do.

if you want to run, risk to reward ratio something like 5:1, 10:1 , you really need good EAs with wining trade ratio something like 80 or 90 %.

There are some commercial system, pretty good ones costs something around 200 to 300 US dollar. Written by professionals and they do really good job generally.

but when they lose once, , it take lump sum of equity from your account cause their risk to reward ratio is very high 8 to 1 or around.


Another example?

Say if you are manual trader, say you position was caught for overnight trade.

You have your stop loss 5 times greater than your take profit.

You can't sleep, man You will go mad in your bad!!!!



Another example?

I know one brilliant EA. It open trades whenever there is Shock bar and open trade for retracements.

Guess what?

It wins 90% but when there is no retracements and price never come back again. The EA blow out your accounts.



So What you should do? Stay away from EA with high risk to reward ratio with merely 60 % or around winning ratio!!!!!

Ron, I love to see if you can bring any other system or EAs with 1:1 risk to reward ratio with guarantee of over 60% winning. Even the statements it self.
That will help others looking this thread rather than some meaningless wordy discussion!!!!

or

you can just show your statement with your billion making EAs after you tuned your EA with 1:1 risk to reward ratio. Just show what happens with your EA.

It will be very good example for others studying EAs.


I think I have emphasized enough my point for others here.

Thanks
  • #19
  • Dec 23, 2008 5:08am Dec 23, 2008 5:08am
An experience coder found themselves a good system to develop.

I am an experience coder as well, and I wish to code for someone else to either get paid or not.

But ambitious will push me, as an experience coder, to develop my own system, not code for someone else.
If everyone believes it, it will work.
  • #20
  • Dec 23, 2008 5:10am Dec 23, 2008 5:10am
If you have such a nice income source from forex, you must don't mind showing us your live account transaction to prove your EA works.

Do you?

If you can show us the live account statements, I am sure a lot of experienced trader will fulfill your ambitiousness.
If everyone believes it, it will work.
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