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4H 5EMA System

  • #2,521
  • Dec 21, 2008 6:33pm Dec 21, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting killertrader
Although this post seems a bit presumptuous, thanks so much for the advice (tips, warnings, lecture). I will file this away appropriately.
Killer, Sorry man, - didn't mean to sound patronising, and I only quoted you as you were the last post discussing daily.
All I was saying, to those who see some published rules and assume that they have been tested, is don't assume, do your own testing.
I hope no one went live with Sterling's rules before back testing for themselves and no one goes live with any system before doing likewise.
It's so easy to lose money in this game and I would hate for anyone to lose because I or anyone posted something that later turned out to be wrong!
You don't have to be right, just don't be too wrong
  • #2,522
  • Dec 21, 2008 6:35pm Dec 21, 2008 6:35pm
It's all good.
  • #2,523
  • Dec 21, 2008 8:10pm Dec 21, 2008 8:10pm
Update:
The SL on the short was triggered, so we are also long now;
Position is long @ 1.4956, with SL @ 1.4808;
No reverse pending order until this bar closes.
  • #2,524
  • Dec 21, 2008 8:56pm Dec 21, 2008 8:56pm
Stersuhr

All Fellow Traders

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

May the New Year bring you loads of PIPS.
  • #2,525
  • Dec 21, 2008 10:31pm Dec 21, 2008 10:31pm
Guys,

I noticed I have a huge gap of almost 7 months in the GBPUSD history data of my demo account, on M1, M5, M15 & M30;
This data hasn't been available in the History Center, for a long time;
My live account with Alpari UK is too recent to download this data by scrolling back the charts, so...

By any chance, anyone here has this data available (the gap is from Jan to Aug 2008), and could contact me in order to send me its file, or knows how to get it (from Alpari UK, not Metaquotes)?
  • #2,526
  • Dec 21, 2008 10:43pm Dec 21, 2008 10:43pm
Guys,

So far I only manage to test for four month Sept - Dec 2008.

Rules : As per Sterling's 4hr 5EMA except

a) Carry Over the weekend
b) Take profit only when there is a reverse trade no 50% rule.


Dec so far locked in +1141 PIPS ( with potentially a couple hundred more ), no drawdown at all !!!

Nov : +993 profit , biggest drawdown is -520

Oct : +684 profit , biggest draw down is -251

Sept: -384 loss , biggest drawdown is -631


Sept to Nov average = +431 profit , that is extremely GOOD for me, for 10 minutes / day work!! ( or less )

Trying to look at ways to lock in profits ( maybe 50% rule ), in my further analysis. Will post the rest of the year when I have it.

Hope this is useful for you guys , since I am really a newbie w/out much experience to contribute.

THANKS EVERYBODY ( esp Sterling & Howard )
  • #2,527
  • Dec 22, 2008 3:06am Dec 22, 2008 3:06am
Quoting anuar
Guys,

So far I only manage to test for four month Sept - Dec 2008.

Rules : As per Sterling's 4hr 5EMA except

a) Carry Over the weekend
b) Take profit only when there is a reverse trade no 50% rule.


Dec so far locked in +1141 PIPS ( with potentially a couple hundred more ), no drawdown at all !!!

Nov : +993 profit , biggest drawdown is -520

Oct : +684 profit , biggest draw down is -251

Sept: -384 loss , biggest drawdown is...
Thanks for this anuar -were you also using the previous bar length as the profit target? I agree for 10 minutes work a day it is hugely appealing -especially for those who still have their day jobs

Thanks to Sterling and Howard and tonirai for giving up so much of your valuable time this year to help us along the way!
  • #2,528
  • Dec 22, 2008 3:37am Dec 22, 2008 3:37am
Quoting denverdude
Backtesting the initial few months of 2008 would give a nice idea of the potential losses and drawdowns the daily system (without the EMA, with each bar as setup, SL = TP) would have encountered. Try testing with those months where GBP was stuck in a range.

If one had the guts to withstand that, the latter months of 2008, would have been good.

Its sooo easy to "cherry pick" and backtest only those months where the system would have rained $$$. Please avoid that mistake.

Thanks
I am only forward testing for that matter, no backtest or cherry picks have been posted.
Regards
  • #2,529
  • Dec 22, 2008 4:24am Dec 22, 2008 4:24am
Quoting petersurrey
Thanks for this anuar -were you also using the previous bar length as the profit target? I agree for 10 minutes work a day it is hugely appealing -especially for those who still have their day jobs

Thanks to Sterling and Howard and tonirai for giving up so much of your valuable time this year to help us along the way!

No.. I use the exact 4H 5EMA Rule as per Sterling's. Just changed the timeframe to Daily instead of four hours ....
  • #2,530
  • Dec 22, 2008 4:27am Dec 22, 2008 4:27am
Quoting denverdude
Backtesting the initial few months of 2008 would give a nice idea of the potential losses and drawdowns the daily system (without the EMA, with each bar as setup, SL = TP) would have encountered. Try testing with those months where GBP was stuck in a range.

If one had the guts to withstand that, the latter months of 2008, would have been good.

Its sooo easy to "cherry pick" and backtest only those months where the system would have rained $$$. Please avoid that mistake.

Thanks
Actually when you hit negative with the D1 system is the day when the trend reverses. Eventually you can catch up the next day. So there one (at least) confirmed loss that I have been able to discover with the D1 is when the trend reverses. But it seems like this happens in one-week intervals in the G/U pair (just from a quick look at the chart of the last couple of month). So you will lose one day a week, and hopefully make money the remaining 4 The catch of course is you make more money than you lose this single day! This is a very early assessment so no debates please, yet at least The 4H5EMA gives great (I mean real great) entries... maybe Ster and Howard can revise something to take advantage of both system in a nice combination.
  • #2,531
  • Dec 22, 2008 11:02am Dec 22, 2008 11:02am
Quoting denverdude
Backtesting the initial few months of 2008 would give a nice idea of the potential losses and drawdowns the daily system (without the EMA, with each bar as setup, SL = TP) would have encountered. Try testing with those months where GBP was stuck in a range.

If one had the guts to withstand that, the latter months of 2008, would have been good.

Its sooo easy to "cherry pick" and backtest only those months where the system would have rained $$$. Please avoid that mistake.

Thanks
Very true thats what happened when I posted this mointh would be up 1000 pips. We went back and started at the beginning of the year and found out that this was not the way to go. You have to backtest atleast 1 year maybe 2 if you have the time. Also backtesting does not replace foward testing, but if its completely mechanical you can get a very good and accurate idea of what the system will do.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,532
  • Dec 22, 2008 11:04am Dec 22, 2008 11:04am
Quoting Trader7
Stersuhr

All Fellow Traders

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

May the New Year bring you loads of PIPS.
Thanks Trader you have a great vacation yourself!

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,533
  • Dec 22, 2008 2:31pm Dec 22, 2008 2:31pm
just like to say that I found this thread just after the start of the month ... it did look like it might break ... but after consolidating the market gave back all losses + ... it's still very volital and will be interesting to see how this month plays out ...

still this one of the best methods I've seen ... trading on price action and letting "it" take you into the current trend is a recipe for success in my book

thanks for sharing it sterling and thanks to the rest of you who continue to help us understand it ...I think you know who you are .. a prosperous new year and Merry Christmas to all
  • #2,534
  • Dec 22, 2008 3:37pm Dec 22, 2008 3:37pm
Quoting trixtuf
just like to say that I found this thread just after the start of the month ... it did look like it might break ... but after consolidating the market gave back all losses + ... it's still very volital and will be interesting to see how this month plays out ...

still this one of the best methods I've seen ... trading on price action and letting "it" take you into the current trend is a recipe for success in my book

thanks for sharing it sterling and thanks to the rest of you who continue to help us understand it ...I think you know who you...
Thanks Trix and welcome to the thread. Glad to have you here. I hope to see you around and look forward to your future posts.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,535
  • Edited 9:39pm Dec 22, 2008 8:06pm | Edited 9:39pm
Hi gang,

This is my first post, but I've been following this thread since the end of October. I must say this is the best system I've seen. It works great for me.
I have been trading on and off for a long time - commodities options, stocks and now forex and learned a lot about technical analysis - reading charts etc. but got me nowhere. Once I saw this system and the charts, I studied it for a day, and then jumped in head first - started trading live right away; not that I would recommend that to anybody, but I was on tilt having lost 75% of my account.

I was hooked after my first 3 trades at the beginning of November:

1st trade: +112 pips
2nd trade: +488 pips
3rd trade: +202 pips

Even at first I think I might have made a couple of mistakes that worked in my favor, but even so I still would have been profitable in all 3 trades.

So far for me, after a little over 1 1/2 months of trading this system, my real account is up 350% - YES I'VE MORE THAN TRIPLED MY ACCOUNT!!
I was never able to accomplish anything anywhere these kinds of results before and I've spent thousands on courses and all kinds of stuff.

Sorry for the long post but this system deserves all the praises it is getting.

Sterling, a huge THANK YOU for coming up with this Super system. And also a big thank you to all those who help with answers and examples. Keep up the fantastic work!

-Gerald


By the way, I'm not using Alpari as you guys are using. I'm using GFT, which the closing times for the 4H bars are at: 3,7,11 EST.
  • #2,536
  • Dec 22, 2008 10:16pm Dec 22, 2008 10:16pm
Quoting pipeater
Hi gang,

This is my first post, but I've been following this thread since the end of October. I must say this is the best system I've seen. It works great for me.
I have been trading on and off for a long time - commodities options, stocks and now forex and learned a lot about technical analysis - reading charts etc. but got me nowhere. Once I saw this system and the charts, I studied it for a day, and then jumped in head first - started trading live right away; not that I would recommend that to anybody, but I was on tilt having lost 75% of my...

Thanks for the support, glad to have you in the room! Look forward to your future posts.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,537
  • Dec 23, 2008 2:41am Dec 23, 2008 2:41am
[quote=pipeater;2435004]Hi gang,

- started trading live right away; not that I would recommend that to anybody, but I was on tilt having lost 75% of my account.

-Gerald

That's a great story ... it's good to see that there is some luck out there (besides the bad kind) Seems you picked just the right time to jump !!

BUT, what are the rest of us going to do, now that you've used it all up ??

Looks like a Merry Christmas for sure ...
  • #2,538
  • Dec 23, 2008 8:20pm Dec 23, 2008 8:20pm
Hello everyone,

Merry Xmas to you all, and I hope you all have a safe and happy New Year. I am on leave until mid January and will rejoin this thread again upon my return.

Regards
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #2,539
  • Dec 24, 2008 3:23am Dec 24, 2008 3:23am
Happy Christmas and a great New Year to you all!
You don't have to be right, just don't be too wrong
  • #2,540
  • Dec 24, 2008 4:15am Dec 24, 2008 4:15am
I wish every one a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
Regards
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