Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

me too.

I am long, for real, off of 132.50 looking for a gap up on Monday after a quadrupole bottom on the 4 hr charts....

Thanks bro I like this daily-H4 Gann play. It's nice and straightforward.

Good night everybody and have a nice weekend.

Anyone on OANDA?

For the last hour both GU and UJ have been climbing putting GJ's true price around 134.50, however GJ has not moved a pip since 4 PM. Odd....

went all in 1:400 leverage ..... quadrupled account with 120 pips up run once US market closed ....lol

i did take long ....based on bullish div rsx on 30 min charts close to LOD. small low risk position. I mean come on ... USD and JPY zero interest !!!! and bullish divergences all over place.

Interesting end to the day .... VERY interesting....

have a great weekend everyone

yeah, if the prices are true there is an arb possibility on OANDA however the true price i calculated is closer to 133.383 compared to GJ being stuck on 133.173

take care bro


have a nice weekend everyone!

www.forex-markets.com now shows the price around 133.60 after a further retrace of GU and UJ....

Very odd about OANDA though....

not a bad risk reward i just didnt want to be in a negative trade at close of day or stuck holding a long over the weekend. i was temped based on 4hr chart and other smaller tf's to do a small long but its been too good a week and i didnt want to be greedy.

I have to admit that my trade is based on 50% intuition 25% fundamentals and 25% technical.

Intuition tells me the DOW is going to finish the year off on a high note. I expect Geppy to follow.

In terms of fundamentals, we have the bailout in place finally. BOJ took some action that I feel will help us push Geppy up.

Technically, we have bounced off the 132.x range 3 times already and I believe we will once again.

I moved my stop loss down to sub 130 and am still in at 132.85.

I really wish more people would post swing trades like I do as if I lose money, you all can see and I dint sit here posting all my winning trades and leave out the losses. This year has been good to me but I've had my bad streaks. We'll see how this plays out.

FWIW, 1st TP is 135+

Good luck everybody and Happy Holidays.

B

Hey BC,

I am an "active trader" myself; meaning I try and take short term trades, but if need be and my trades are still within my price limits I will hold them for a longer period of time...

I am long now as well....I expect a push toward 139 before a restest and possible break of the current bottom. Either way I am out around 135 myself and will look to re-enter based on PA....

Good luck (to both of us)

fu@#$~&*%@$##ng crap!!! oooops?!?!?!????? what the...?
seriously, take a look at this chart:
h4 shows lower lows and lower highs: DOWNTREND. previous h4 candle however was bullish and price came closer to the highs, but this only means a retracement so far.
daily (not posted) shows lower lows and lower highs: DOWNTREND. previous daily high was at 135.86, so until this is broken, i am not seriously thinking about going long - just scalping.
yes, i agree we might be close to a nice and solid retracement (on monthly!), but it is not confirmed. and since i am not a bottom picker, i will only ride trends that are already established.

also look at this one; i added the previous weekly high, 139.18 - now if this one is taken, then up we go. and i mean, UP.

p.s. qqe has not even crossed up on h1 charts and i hear you guys are going long on a friday afternoon, before the Christmas holidays and on low volatility??? (well i'm not talking about lilmoe or malcolmb ). i just don't get it.

Was foolled a little on last long position but partial TP is the best way of trading
Thank u lilmoe to points this out to me.

This is how i see this now. FLAT for 2-4 days (scalping only)
Waiting for reaction near LTLs

hmm interesting, so how would you set up arbitrage trade?

is it say 1unit short gu 1 unit short uj and 2 units long gj? or 1 unit on each pair?

actually figured it out and now my net exposure on gbp and usd is 0 but i have slight jpy exposure not sure how to remove it , maybe its dues to spread or soemthing.

nice charts bro... i was obviously joking about that long i took (duh)... i'm currently flat on GJ... i know u got the joke, but some traders sending me PMs obviously didn't think i was joking... i know ur posts are relatively short compared to mine, but try reading this one till the end, looool. i think i have a point i want to share with u guys. lol.

i agree that a downtrend is a downtrend unless proven otherwise. u always had a point there.

the past 2 weeks were a bit confusing to me as for GJ... this all started when the dollar index started retracing. and till it finishes retracing we should see some crazy (unpredictable) action on cross pairs, GJ included.

now... the reason GJ was tanking so hard in the past months was due to both downtrends in GU and UJ... UJ was goign down due to yen strength, period. the dollar was strengthening but UJ was strengthening in a higher rate. now i WISH i can get hold of a chart showing the YEN index, does anyone have or "know" where i can get that?? plz help!!

anyway, the yen is pretty stable lately, i say that because the latest moves in UJ reflect the latest actions in the dollar index. it's now strengthining on a "smaller" rate. we should get a Retracement in the Yen index = Yen strength most likely caused by the rate cut on the Yen, and that should probably prepell yen crosses in the near future.

also, we all know how the pound is weak. it's sooo week that this MASSIVE come back in the dollar didn't even cause the pound to make half the gains other (less volatile) pairs made such as the euro and the swissy. that "weekness" in the pound, or rather that weakness in the pound index (drop) should see some sort of retracement as well in the neer future. those rumers of the UK joining the euro and the entire "parity" think are just rumers unless a solid decision is announced.

that's enough "fundies" for me, looool.... now for technicals

here's something i've been looking at today.

look at the daily GJ chart. we all agree that we're still in wave 5 of the move down from 250 which started back at 215 (End of wave 4). and we all agree that wave 5 consists of 5 additional waves. well i have a theory i'd like to share: if u look at wave 1 of 5, it started also from 215 and stopped at 184, which yields 3100 - 3200 pips. wave 3 of 5 down started at 197 and ended on 139 (i don't think it ended at 165, at least that's how i see it, because the angle of descent did not change till we hit 139 the first time, also wave 3 of 5 tends to be twice as large as wave 1 of 5 which it was, and that's around 6000 pips down from 197). NOW, wave 5 of 5 started from 165 after we retraced from 139, and we're still in that wave.

wave 1 and 5 of 5 are in lots of cases identical; same slope (angle) and size. that's what i see as for now. the fall from 215 to 184 and from 165 to the current levels are identical in angle (upper trendline of the downtrend AKA line of descent), and since wave 1 of 5 (215 - 184) was about 3000-3200 pips long, i'd say we need to subtract those from 165, and that's where we get a value like 133-135. this is another reason why i think we're bottoming out.

however, i need to see that trendline broken and confirmed before i target daily 50ema again. each time we close above that trendline we somehow manage to close below it again. pretty frustrating if u ask me... i know my target 2 weeks ago was as low as 121, but now i'm having doubts about that. the waves are telling a different story. we might see some new lows, but those should be VERY limited. the bullish DIV on the daily should activate anytime now, it's wayyyy overdue. we should see a correctional wave on the weekly chart soon, very soon. the target of that should at least be 50ema of the daily chart, and most likely wayyyy more than that.

let's watch and see

np bro

never say NO to profit when u see it! cuz if u do, u'll most likely go negative again, lol. take what's offered!

partial profit rules

by the way scrat... have u ever played around with fib timezones or cycle lines?