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  • #1,221
  • Mar 12, 2007 4:38pm Mar 12, 2007 4:38pm
OK, back again - yes I think that's what I do lol

So, say I had $5000 in my account (I wish)...

Putting on 5 new trades using 2% equity on each at 1:100 leverage.

Each trade would be 10,000 units or 0.1 lot.

For my /USD pairs that would equate to $1 a pip, for USD/ pairs slightly less.

If all my initial stop losses were at 100 pips, theoretically I could lose just under $500 or 10%. However, more often than not, my initial stop losses would be far less than that in total although individually on occasion it could be more.

As the trades progress and stop losses tightened, so does the risk.

I hope this explains a little better.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting alcastro
Steve,

I don't quite get it (sorry: ). Does that means that you trade a fixed number of lots (equivalent to 2% of your equity per pair) regardless of your s/l size?
  • #1,222
  • Mar 12, 2007 10:31pm Mar 12, 2007 10:31pm
Quoting steviet
OK, back again - yes I think that's what I do lol

So, say I had $5000 in my account (I wish)...

Putting on 5 new trades using 2% equity on each at 1:100 leverage.

Each trade would be 10,000 units or 0.1 lot.

For my /USD pairs that would equate to $1 a pip, for USD/ pairs slightly less.

If all my initial stop losses were at 100 pips, theoretically I could lose just under $500 or 10%. However, more often than not, my initial stop losses would be far less than that in total although individually on occasion it could be more.

As the trades progress and stop losses tightened, so does the risk.

I hope this explains a little better.

Kind Regards
Steve
Gotcha.

Thanks
  • #1,223
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:40am Mar 13, 2007 12:40am
Quoting steviet
OK, 2 trades still on & stop losses tightened. Been a little disappointing today as most of Friday's gains were wiped out - no matter, it happens.....

USDCAD short from 1.1723 (s/l 1.1748 guarantees minus 25 pips)
USDJPY long from 117.18 (s/l 117.11 guarantees minus 7 pips)

Three new trades on - EU & UCHF both have tight initial stop losses for my system...

USDCHF long from 1.2247 (s/l 1.2225 guarantees minus 22 pips)
GBPUSD long from 1.9326 (s/l 1.9242 guarantees minus 84 pips)
EURUSD short from 1.3188 (s/l 1.3210 guarantees minus 22 pips)

So, over the 5 trades we are risking 160 pips which is not a lot for the method. Let's see how we go...

Kind Regards
Steve


Steve, why are you short EURUSD?
  • #1,224
  • Mar 13, 2007 2:37am Mar 13, 2007 2:37am
Hi,

EU faces tough reistence around 1.3200 - if I'm uneasy about a pair's direction and ability to break through, I have started to be more cautious and take the direction with a lower risk.

At present, EU is plus 20 pips but only time will tell if it was a good trade.

As I write this, 4 out of 5 trades are positive, with the exception of GU which seems to be getting dragged down by GJ again.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting dazed101
Steve, why are you short EURUSD?
  • #1,225
  • Mar 13, 2007 4:17am Mar 13, 2007 4:17am
I see, thanks for your reply.

Quoting steviet
Hi,

EU faces tough reistence around 1.3200 - if I'm uneasy about a pair's direction and ability to break through, I have started to be more cautious and take the direction with a lower risk.

At present, EU is plus 20 pips but only time will tell if it was a good trade.

As I write this, 4 out of 5 trades are positive, with the exception of GU which seems to be getting dragged down by GJ again.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,226
  • Mar 13, 2007 7:25am Mar 13, 2007 7:25am
OK, lunchtime update....

USDJPY stopped out for minus 7 pips. Another trade that was up over 100 pips at one stage but hey ho. UJ is still my best performing pair this month with plus 323 pips so far.

USDCHF stopped out for minus 22 pips also.

Remaining trades are currently

GBPUSD long from 1.9326 - currently minus 24 pips
EURUSD short from 1.3188 - currently plus 7 pips
USDCAD short from 1.1723 - currently plus 24 pips

Bit of a mixed bag - not a great day but still doing OK this month with 638 pips in profit so far.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,227
  • Mar 13, 2007 3:12pm Mar 13, 2007 3:12pm
I see that EURUSD was stopped out. Steve, have you backtested whether personal intervention affects the overall results positively?
  • #1,228
  • Edited 4:55pm Mar 13, 2007 4:36pm | Edited 4:55pm
OK, just got in from work (late one) to find EU & UCAD stopped out for minus 22 pips & 25 pips.

This just leaves GU to tighten stop loss....

GBPUSD long from 1.9326 (s/l 1.9262 guarantees minus 64 pips)

I've put 4 new trades on.....

EURUSD short from 1.3195 (s/l 1.3231 guarantees minus 36 pips)
USDCHF long from 1.2182 (s/l 1.2158 guarantees minus 24 pips)
USDCAD long from 1.1748 (s/l 1.1671 guarantees minus 77 pips)
USDJPY short from 116.19 (s/l 117.87 guarantees minus 168 pips)

Hmm, I've had a post here and a PM also asking why I'm going against my system. This is an interesting point. On backtesting I didn't necessarily just go long after a bull bar or short after a bear bar. I was also looking for bars where I thought either a trend or breakout was exhausting and traded accordingly.

I looked back in my live trades in February and wasn't necessarily doing this and could have possibly reduced my losses by doing so.

However, I'm starting to doubt & question myself on some trades which isn't a good thing and this doubt has been compounded by what these good people are saying. Am I going off my trolley? The UCHF trade yesterday was a rubbish trade as was EU and look, I've done it again tonight. I think I'm starting to look too much into support & resistence etc.

The trouble is all the rules are written out in stone apart from the entry direction. I need to go back over my trades and see what would have happened over the last few months with the following entry rules and nothing else.

1. On previous day bull bar after being stopped out, go long.
2. Viceversa for bear bars
3. If I get stopped out with a doji, treat as a continuation of previous direction until we get a coinfirmation bar otherwise.

You've got me thinking which is always dangerous in my book. I'm doing really well so far even if I say so myself but thanks for pulling me up on this - I need to investigate. There are of course times when this works perfectly and I've done it before in calling a reversal but I may be trying to do it too frequently. Certainly, I'd be a fair few pips up on UCHF if I'd gone short last night. The only way to tell is to see where it ends up this time tomorrow. Aarrggh! This can be so frustrating, especially after an overlong day at work.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,229
  • Edited 5:03pm Mar 13, 2007 5:00pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quote
Am I going off my trolley?

NO !!

But you are letting other people's ideas and/or challenges to your decisions infiltrate your psyche.

You know your system better than anyone else, you make the directional decisions, and you live with the results, good, bad, or ugly.

I personally make my own decisions before I read your journal each day, and I (try very hard to) completely ignore all the other threads until after I have made my decisions. I think this makes it a lot easier.....

HTH

regards

Xerof

btw, we are usually the same way...lol
  • #1,230
  • Mar 13, 2007 5:02pm Mar 13, 2007 5:02pm
take a break for a week, redo backtest in the mean tie, and come back next week with more clear head maybe helps
  • #1,231
  • Mar 13, 2007 5:14pm Mar 13, 2007 5:14pm
Thanks for the kind words Xerof - I'm tired - it may have come through in my post lol

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Xerof
NO !!

But you are letting other people's ideas and/or challenges to your decisions infiltrate your psyche.

You know your system better than anyone else, you make the directional decisions, and you live with the results, good, bad, or ugly.

I personally make my own decisions before I read your journal each day, and I (try very hard to) completely ignore all the other threads until after I have made my decisions. I think this makes it a lot easier.....

HTH

regards

Xerof

btw, we are usually the same way...lol
  • #1,232
  • Mar 13, 2007 5:19pm Mar 13, 2007 5:19pm
Actually, it was just a bad few trades & I'm sure we all make them lol.

If I step back and look at the figures (including bad trades), I'm still up 1650 pips since November and 591 pips up this month.

I only need to make at most 5 decisions a night as to which trades I put on, so I'll continue in my merry way lol.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting dutdot
take a break for a week, redo backtest in the mean tie, and come back next week with more clear head maybe helps
  • #1,233
  • Mar 13, 2007 5:29pm Mar 13, 2007 5:29pm
Hey Steve,

I see you are facing a very common dilemma. I thought I'd share my opinion on the matter. It seems as though most people think that once you've backtested a method, and decided it is "good enough", then it is from that point on cast in stone and never subject to change.

I disagree whole heartedly. Is your system 100%? (No, Kevin, it isn't ) THEN THERE IS ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT. WHY in the world would you cease to improve something on the basis that it is "good enough", and that is only in backtests. I don't know about you, but I am constantly looking for ways to improve my system in hopes that I reach that 100% point. I realize that this hardly feasible, but I will never settle for "good enough".

With this being said, I don't know if I would jump in and trade real money on a whim because I thought I saw improvement. In the future, it would be a good idea to "hypothetically" take trades based on new ideas you have. If you think there is something that would be beneficial, don't be afraid to add it in!

The bottom line is that if you can say this at the end of the day:

"I am optimistic and confident in all that I do. I affirm only the best for myself and others. I am the creator of my life and my world. I meet daily challenges gracefully and with complete confidence. I fill my mind with positive, nurturing, and healing thoughts."

Then you are trading the way you want to trade. The key word here is confidence.

Best wishes,

Kevin
  • #1,234
  • Mar 13, 2007 6:11pm Mar 13, 2007 6:11pm
Thanks for the post Kevin ,

I think it's in all of us to try and improve what we do, even when we are moderately successful. The danger of course is that we actually lessen a system's performance by trying to be too clever - I've been guilty of that in the past lol.

I've just had a wonderful PM from a full time trader here who has supported me almost from day one. He trades amounts I can only dream of at present but his constant reminders of only looking at the big picture, not sweating the small stuff, keeps me on track.

I thank my lucky stars that I started this journal - it's painful some days to post but the end result is that I'm getting better and affirming my belief that the most important thing is not the system but the six inches in between your ears.

Kind regards
Steve


Quoting kharvell
Hey Steve,

I see you are facing a very common dilemma. I thought I'd share my opinion on the matter. It seems as though most people think that once you've backtested a method, and decided it is "good enough", then it is from that point on cast in stone and never subject to change.

I disagree whole heartedly. Is your system 100%? (No, Kevin, it isn't ) THEN THERE IS ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT. WHY in the world would you cease to improve something on the basis that it is "good enough", and that is only in backtests. I don't know about you, but I am constantly looking for ways to improve my system in hopes that I reach that 100% point. I realize that this hardly feasible, but I will never settle for "good enough".

With this being said, I don't know if I would jump in and trade real money on a whim because I thought I saw improvement. In the future, it would be a good idea to "hypothetically" take trades based on new ideas you have. If you think there is something that would be beneficial, don't be afraid to add it in!

The bottom line is that if you can say this at the end of the day:

"I am optimistic and confident in all that I do. I affirm only the best for myself and others. I am the creator of my life and my world. I meet daily challenges gracefully and with complete confidence. I fill my mind with positive, nurturing, and healing thoughts."

Then you are trading the way you want to trade. The key word here is confidence.

Best wishes,

Kevin
  • #1,235
  • Mar 14, 2007 2:10am Mar 14, 2007 2:10am
the important thing when forward testing is to test any system or method consistently, with respect to whatever was developed when back testing. sure there is always room for improvement and back-testing should give some indication of the success or failure rates to whatever your approach is.

having doubts or wanting to change things is perfectly natural for a trader, or just being a human in general. the important thing is how you act on these behaviours - by all means experiment! i still do, i'm always looking to improve like everybody else but keep it separate from what you've come up with earlier and then do whatever you like.

the best approach for me is to model the whole thing like an IT project - even if you don't code! merlin gave an example with his "system behind the system" thread in the articles section but any similar process will do...
  • #1,236
  • Mar 14, 2007 2:11am Mar 14, 2007 2:11am
OK,

Overnight GU stopped out for minus 64 pips & UCHF stopped out for minus 24 pips.

Still up over 500 pips this month (+6.79% increase in acc bal) but having a not so great week so far..

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,237
  • Mar 14, 2007 2:16am Mar 14, 2007 2:16am
Thanks Iso,

Always look forward to your 7am comment

Yep, probably made a couple of wrong calls these last few days but don't we all lol. At least the calls had pretty tight stop losses so no harm done really. Anyhow, my win % this month was way too high for my system so had to bring it down haha.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Isotonic
the important thing when forward testing is to test any system or method consistently, with respect to whatever was developed when back testing. sure there is always room for improvement and back-testing should give some indication of the success or failure rates to whatever your approach is.

having doubts or wanting to change things is perfectly natural for a trader, or just being a human in general. the important thing is how you act on these behaviours - by all means experiment! i still do, i'm always looking to improve like everybody else but keep it separate from what you've come up with earlier and then do whatever you like.

the best approach for me is to model the whole thing like an IT project - even if you don't code! merlin gave an example with his "system behind the system" thread in the articles section but any similar process will do...
  • #1,238
  • Mar 14, 2007 2:19am Mar 14, 2007 2:19am
Well at least your sense of humour remains untroubled..lol
  • #1,239
  • Mar 14, 2007 2:24am Mar 14, 2007 2:24am
Hi Xerof,

I see you went the way I should've gone on UCHF & EU yesterday. It's good to see you can trade my system better than me

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Xerof
Well at least your sense of humour remains untroubled..lol
  • #1,240
  • Mar 14, 2007 12:34pm Mar 14, 2007 12:34pm
OK, EU stopped out for minus 36 pips. This little experiment on support & resistence hasn't worked out this time but at least it limits losses. Pip gain down to under 500 this month. If I'd just carried on as I had, I'd be well over the 600 pip mark still.

Anyhow, important lesson learnt with minimal losses so back to basics.

Kind Regards
Steve
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