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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #149,801
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:35am Dec 17, 2008 12:35am
i could say long but...

beast scares of white color (h3 ema120 resistance)
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  • #149,802
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:43am Dec 17, 2008 12:43am
The immense selling pressure on the US dollar has yet to alleviate following a stunning rate cut by the US Federal open Market Committee (FOMC). In yesterday’s New York afternoon, Ben Bernanke and company eased interest rates by -0.75% to a historic low of 0.25%. The reaction was fast and furious. The Greenback plummeted across the board and assets of risk soared higher. Though the global market effects were tremendous in scope, traders were not finished. Today’s Asia Session has seen a continuation of the recent trend, highlighted by USDJPY sinking to its lowest level since 1995. At the start of December, nobody would have guessed the levels toppled today would have been within reach. Rewind to the first day of the month: EURUSD lingered at 1.2600, USDJPY sat around 95.50, and USDCHF hovered above 1.2100. Compare these rates, hit during today’s trading: EURUSD neared 1.4200, USDJPY dropped to 88.50, and USDCHF held on to 1.1100. In a mere two week time frame, we have ironically seen violent tick-by-tick short-term volatility ease and directional trends methodically grip the market. In other words, currencies are moving at a blazing pace, but the breed of price action has morphed. Today’s activity is a microcosm of this description. The theme is definitive (USD lower) and trading best described as “trendy” (as opposed to choppy). Is the Japanese Yen Carry Trade officially extinct? After all, at this very moment, US interest rates are below those of Japan. Here is the next logical question: could it be conceivable that the FX market is on the cusp of a US dollar Carry Trade? The repercussions of this potential asset shift in “the world’s reserve currency” would be enormous, reaching virtually every country and asset class in existence. In timely fashion pertaining to this discussion, the Bank of Japan decides its country’s fate on interest rates tomorrow.
[
  • #149,803
  • Edited 1:36am Dec 17, 2008 12:59am | Edited 1:36am
40 Hours of RESITANCE @ 139 level, made an interesting pattern, Inverse H/S, with Neck line @ the 139 area [redline]. If we close above that line, then we are most likely visiting 141,5 or more.. However, whenever we have a rejection from the Neckline, that rejection is powerfull as well, can bring us hundreds of pips to the Downside. The vertical lines are time zones with reversal sign for that TF.

From the other side we had revisiting the LOW of 88,20 on UY this ASIA session.
My oppinion ?

If we break 139.20 then 142 or upper, if we break 137.30 [4H gann], then we are making our 1K pips to the downside...

Back to trading..!
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  • #149,804
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:16am Dec 17, 2008 1:16am
Quoting Piters
40 Hours of Support @ 139 level, made an interesting pattern, Inverse H/S, with Neck line @ the 139 area [redline]. If we close above that line, then we are most likely visiting 141,5 or more.. However, whenever we have a rejection from the Neckline, that rejection is powerfull as well, can bring us hundreds of pips to the Downside. The vertical lines are time zones with reversal sign for that TF.

From the other side we had revisiting the LOW of 88,20 on UY this ASIA session.
My oppinion ?

If we break 139.20 then 142 or upper, if we break...

Great analysis bro
i bet downside because already sold on ~139
  • #149,805
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:16am Dec 17, 2008 1:16am
Great analysis...I missed the H & S...




Quoting Piters
40 Hours of Support @ 139 level, made an interesting pattern, Inverse H/S, with Neck line @ the 139 area [redline]. If we close above that line, then we are most likely visiting 141,5 or more.. However, whenever we have a rejection from the Neckline, that rejection is powerfull as well, can bring us hundreds of pips to the Downside. The vertical lines are time zones with reversal sign for that TF.

From the other side we had revisiting the LOW of 88,20 on UY this ASIA session.
My oppinion ?

If we break 139.20 then 142 or upper, if we break...
[
  • #149,806
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:17am Dec 17, 2008 1:17am
Quoting Piters
40 Hours of Support @ 139 level, made an interesting pattern, Inverse H/S, with Neck line @ the 139 area [redline]. If we close above that line, then we are most likely visiting 141,5 or more.. However, whenever we have a rejection from the Neckline, that rejection is powerfull as well, can bring us hundreds of pips to the Downside. The vertical lines are time zones with reversal sign for that TF.

From the other side we had revisiting the LOW of 88,20 on UY this ASIA session.
My oppinion ?

If we break 139.20 then 142 or upper, if we break...
Nice Analysis!

I personally would wait on the drop to break the 136.80 level (yesterday's low).

I wonder if the drop will be slower than recent falls because of the fear of Asian intervention on the yen.

What do you think?
  • #149,807
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:23am Dec 17, 2008 1:23am
Quoting hwsv07
which side of the breakout are you looking at?
I think a false breakout down and then back upwards thats just IMVHO, trade what you see on your charts... I am on the sidelines watching now.
  • #149,808
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:25am Dec 17, 2008 1:25am
Quoting bassmouth
Nice Analysis!

I personally would wait on the drop to break the 136.80 level (yesterday's low).

I wonder if the drop will be slower than recent falls because of the fear of Asian intervention on the yen.

What do you think?
honestly, after yesterday's rates, I don't believe in BOJ intervention.. And be ready to see UY on much lower levels [dont blame me, but easy below 50-60 levels].
The OPEC summit is today, and they will make a desition to reduce the production of the OIL.. Japan is Fully depended from OIL impports.. SO, they need strong Dollar. IF, but not IF - we are already in global recession, then realy doesnt matter export or cars, or Electronics.. In recession noone buys them anyway.. So (sorry for my teribble english) but we might see a NEW carry Trade in USD.. and that is mean UY down, GU up, EU up. ect...
  • #149,809
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:27am Dec 17, 2008 1:27am
What do you think the Japan will decide on thursday night?

Cut the rate or hold...



Quoting Piters
honestly, after yesterday's rates, I don't believe in BOJ intervention.. And be ready to see UY on much lower levels [dont blame me, but easy below 50-60 levels].
The OPEC summit is today, and they will make a desition to reduce the production of the OIL.. Japan is Fully depended from OIL impports.. SO, they need strong Dollar. IF, but not IF - we are already in global recession, then realy doesnt matter export or cars, or Electronics.. In recession noone buys them anyway.. So (sorry for my teribble english) but we might see a NEW carry Trade...
[
  • #149,810
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:31am Dec 17, 2008 1:31am
Quoting 5ysfx
Great analysis bro
i bet downside because already sold on ~139
me too, lool, I am in front of my screens for last 40h+, waiting on that Drop, with bairly 2-3 short naps.

Last one I missed, but not this one, if needed, I'll be here next 140h

  • #149,811
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:32am Dec 17, 2008 1:32am
Quoting Piters
honestly, after yesterday's rates, I don't believe in BOJ intervention.. And be ready to see UY on much lower levels [dont blame me, but easy below 50-60 levels].
The OPEC summit is today, and they will make a desition to reduce the production of the OIL.. Japan is Fully depended from OIL impports.. SO, they need strong Dollar. IF, but not IF - we are already in global recession, then realy doesnt matter export or cars, or Electronics.. In recession noone buys them anyway.. So (sorry for my teribble english) but we might see a NEW carry Trade...
The EUR/USD as the new carry trade, with rapid movement and tiny spreads.

Much love and many pips!
  • #149,812
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:34am Dec 17, 2008 1:34am
Quoting rgitt05
What do you think the Japan will decide on thursday night?

Cut the rate or hold...

probably HOLD, but 0.25 doesnt make any difference.. It is all different NOW. Carry trades started with UY. Now is very interesting what we are going to expect. One thing for SURE. Lot of vilotality, moving assets from one to other place or groups.. ect..

Anyway, the market is going to be ALIVE... that it most important for US
  • #149,813
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:37am Dec 17, 2008 1:37am
Quoting Piters
40 Hours of RESITANCE @ 139 level, made an interesting pattern, Inverse H/S, with Neck line @ the 139 area [redline]. If we close above that line, then we are most likely visiting 141,5 or more.. However, whenever we have a rejection from the Neckline, that rejection is powerfull as well, can bring us hundreds of pips to the Downside. The vertical lines are time zones with reversal sign for that TF.

From the other side we had revisiting the LOW of 88,20 on UY this ASIA session.
My oppinion ?

If we break 139.20 then 142 or upper, if we...
SORRY GUYS, I made a TYPO, the red line is RESISTANCE, not support... (I need another coffee)

please take note, I changed in my original Post as well

P.S. Thanks Islander, for your note !!
  • #149,814
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:40am Dec 17, 2008 1:40am
Many pips to be make in the future..GU and EU looks very interesting to trade now with the low spread..



Quoting Piters
probably HOLD, but 0.25 doesnt make any difference.. It is all different NOW. Carry trades started with UY. Now is very interesting what we are going to expect. One thing for SURE. Lot of vilotality, moving assets from one to other place or groups.. ect..

Anyway, the market is going to be ALIVE... that it most important for US
[
  • #149,815
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:44am Dec 17, 2008 1:44am
when the mma's bunch tightly
regardless of the timeframe
expect significant movement
(relative to the timeframe).

It's been about 13 hrs since
the last similar pattern.

No need to be glued here 24/7.

Dr. D.
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  • #149,816
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:46am Dec 17, 2008 1:46am
Quoting Piters
me too, lool, I am in front of my screens for last 40h+, waiting on that Drop, with bairly 2-3 short naps.

Last one I missed, but not this one, if needed, I'll be here next 140h

LOL
26hs so far on my account
i am expecting miracle on the market this week a lot of ppl might lose money
  • #149,817
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:09am Dec 17, 2008 2:09am
Quoting 5ysfx
LOL
26hs so far on my account
i am expecting miracle on the market this week a lot of ppl might lose money
And that miracle is................ GJ going up big time probably
Maybe 1.46 or 1.47?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #149,818
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:09am Dec 17, 2008 2:09am
Quoting rgitt05
Is the Japanese Yen Carry Trade officially extinct? After all, at this very moment, US interest rates are below those of Japan. Here is the next logical question: could it be conceivable that the FX market is on the cusp of a US dollar Carry Trade? .
Now that is interesting!
  • #149,819
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:13am Dec 17, 2008 2:13am
[quote=Islander;2422955]Nice call - as I've been saying frequently, its often best to trade one of the pairs rather than a cross......[/quote]


GM all - I'm happy to see other traders agreeing with this point of view.

I wonder quite what will happen to the USDJPY relationship and how this will work out into the GBPJPY and EURJPY trades in the future. Will their volatility reduce, thus making them less attractive to trade......I have no idea, but I DO know that at the moment its easier and more profitable to trade either GU or EU......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #149,820
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:26am Dec 17, 2008 2:26am
[quote=Islander;2424279]
Quoting Islander
Nice call - as I've been saying frequently, its often best to trade one of the pairs rather than a cross......[/quote]


GM all - I'm happy to see other traders agreeing with this point of view.

I wonder quite what will happen to the USDJPY relationship and how this will work out into the GBPJPY and EURJPY trades in the future. Will their volatility reduce, thus making them less attractive to trade......I have no idea, but I DO know that at the moment its easier and more profitable to trade either GU or EU.........

i know Captn,

but I am a GY addict.
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