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  • #81
  • Dec 8, 2008 9:28pm Dec 8, 2008 9:28pm
Sorry old chap. Had my head in EUR/CAD today.... EUR/AUD position has more to do with commodity prices and Australia reeling in interest rates and showing slowest quarter growth for 8 years. However, Aussie still shows a little growth, unlike the negative results overall in the OECD block.

Its taking a major kicking with the carry trades stampeding for the exit from July.

Economic Fundamentals and the markets reaction thereto set prices.
  • #82
  • Dec 8, 2008 9:32pm Dec 8, 2008 9:32pm
Hi Steelhead, interested to know why you're long ?
  • #83
  • Dec 8, 2008 10:50pm Dec 8, 2008 10:50pm
When EURUSD adn AUDUSD catch a bid, this will fall IMO..seems like support for AUD on MAs and resistance for EURAUD.
  • #84
  • Dec 8, 2008 10:54pm Dec 8, 2008 10:54pm
Quoting Aesculus
Hi Steelhead, interested to know why you're long ?

buy low sell high.

It was a good area. would like too see 1.9260 even better buy opp
  • #85
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:04pm Dec 16, 2008 11:04pm
This has been an interesting week for this pair. Am still short. Why ? Look at the historic highs on longer term charts. Is one Euro really worth two Aussie dollars plus ? It may take time but my moneys on a short to 1.86 vicinity.
  • #86
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:50am Dec 17, 2008 1:50am
Quoting Aesculus
This has been an interesting week for this pair. Am still short. Why ? Look at the historic highs on longer term charts. Is one Euro really worth two Aussie dollars plus ? It may take time but my moneys on a short to 1.86 vicinity.
If you look at a current chart, EUR/AUD is really teasing with a breakout to some new lows. I've already set my pending shorts, so here's hoping!
  • #87
  • Dec 18, 2008 12:09am Dec 18, 2008 12:09am
Hi there,

I have seen the decline from 2.1174 to 1.8487 which was in the 3 waves, which is corrective and indicates that the larger trend is still up. A break above 2.1174 is expected... eventually. However, a larger correction in the form of a triangle is also a possibility from here. In that case, i believe, the pair would follow a path similar to the one mapped out on the chart on today.
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  • #88
  • Dec 18, 2008 5:21am Dec 18, 2008 5:21am
Another interesting day. Added to my shorts above 2.0600

Above 2.000 is unusual - not seen since the days of the Deutchmark and back then there was strong resistance at upper 1.9000's

The October high was event driven (credit crunch,capital repatriation,carry unwinding etc )

If it goes to 2.4000 I'll eat my hats... corks and all !
  • #89
  • Dec 18, 2008 5:50am Dec 18, 2008 5:50am
Folks,

Just came across this thread, hehe. Been trading this pair on IB most successfully despite larger spreads since its crazy splash of volatility when i was sitting at my PC and saw the (maybe) historical high of 2.11+ being formed. Possibly moving down under for good from Europe hence also trying to catch a good rate now and hedge the risks. In this regard, only going short on this pair.

I do strongly believe eur/aud will come back to 1.90 once the cut in oil production is felt and eur euphoric run against the greenback is over. Am short at 2.04, 2.06 and look to short it also anywhere at 2.08 or higher if it gets there. EUR is completely overbought now, AUD and CAD are not catching up with EUR run, commodities trading low this is the situation today. Tomorrow, however, i believe, folks wake up to the benefits of AUD and CAD, and especially AUD at current rates.

Worst comes to worst, get half a mil AUD, move down under, get a house, a yacht and a nice car at a heavy discount rather than sitting in those subzero winter temperatures.
  • #90
  • Dec 18, 2008 5:57am Dec 18, 2008 5:57am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
When EURUSD adn AUDUSD catch a bid, this will fall IMO..seems like support for AUD on MAs and resistance for EURAUD.

And fall it will. Any bit of good news of stabilization in commodities, which am sure are nearing their bottom as there doesn't seem to be alot of space left for them to keep on falling, and this will send this pair reeling down.

Am stuck between the rock and a hard place trying to make pips on shorts and lock the profits and also trying to open this big long-term SHORT at the best possible price.
  • #91
  • Dec 18, 2008 6:21am Dec 18, 2008 6:21am
Quoting Groovy
Folks,

Just came across this thread, hehe. Been trading this pair on IB most successfully despite larger spreads since its crazy splash of volatility when i was sitting at my PC and saw the (maybe) historical high of 2.11+ being formed. Possibly moving down under for good from Europe hence also trying to catch a good rate now and hedge the risks. In this regard, only going short on this pair.

I do strongly believe eur/aud will come back to 1.90 once the cut in oil production is felt and eur euphoric run against the greenback is over. Am short...
Very strange how commodity prices are not moving up with dollar weakness. Perhaps it's a matter of time for commodity pairs to move up, (USDJPY holding them down?), or maybe this is new era and commodity prices will remain low for some time while the global economy tries to rebuild. The AUD is appearantly underperforming...
  • #92
  • Dec 18, 2008 7:06am Dec 18, 2008 7:06am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Very strange how commodity prices are not moving up with dollar weakness. Perhaps it's a matter of time for commodity pairs to move up, (USDJPY holding them down?), or maybe this is new era and commodity prices will remain low for some time while the global economy tries to rebuild. The AUD is appearantly underperforming...
Something telling me patience can be here handsomely rewarded. Oil starts moving up from its 4-year lows as maybe a first response to OPEC cuts. Gold, which was always tied up to AUD but broke this relationship recently, has seen unprecedented gains. I shorted eur/aud again at 2.07 and this would be my last short (together with 2.04 and 2.06) to sit and comfortably wait out for the eur/aud drop.
  • #93
  • Dec 18, 2008 11:03pm Dec 18, 2008 11:03pm
Indeed, volatility on this is amazing. Added to entries above 2.0600 again today, one over 2.0700. Overall on the trade I'm still down... have entries below 1.98 but am not crying into my beer yet.

Australia has real wealth, as in stuff you dig out the ground and sell. Sort of giant quarry in the middle of the ocean. Lets hope Kevin Rudd doesn't let the ecomentalists bugger up mining like they have done in the US.
  • #94
  • Dec 19, 2008 9:47am Dec 19, 2008 9:47am
Quoting Aesculus
Indeed, volatility on this is amazing. Added to entries above 2.0600 again today, one over 2.0700. Overall on the trade I'm still down... have entries below 1.98 but am not crying into my beer yet.

Australia has real wealth, as in stuff you dig out the ground and sell. Sort of giant quarry in the middle of the ocean. Lets hope Kevin Rudd doesn't let the ecomentalists bugger up mining like they have done in the US.

Aesculus,

I think you can congrat me and yourself on bit of patience here. I closed all my shorts with 16K AUD profit after just few days in trades. It was abit stressful y-day night when the price skyrocketed to just over 2.10. Gotta have a pair of steel balls to open up another short at such a price.

Speaking of great wealth - couldn't agree more. And as for mining, i'd still prefer to see unpolluted aussie beaches and less profit than breathing pollution. Responsible mining is what am totally for.
  • #95
  • Dec 19, 2008 10:00am Dec 19, 2008 10:00am
Quoting Groovy
Aesculus,

I think you can congrat me and yourself on bit of patience here. I closed all my shorts with 16K AUD profit after just few days in trades. It was abit stressful y-day night when the price skyrocketed to just over 2.10. Gotta have a pair of steel balls to open up another short at such a price.

Speaking of great wealth - couldn't agree more. And as for mining, i'd still prefer to see unpolluted aussie beaches and less profit than breathing pollution. Responsible mining is what am totally for.
Nice trades guys. Looks like potential for further weakness. I am long AUDUSD, .76 seems feasible. Been a laggard thinking a catch-up is due, but hope not it's the markets indicating valuation through lower relative strength.
  • #96
  • Dec 19, 2008 12:15pm Dec 19, 2008 12:15pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Nice trades guys. Looks like potential for further weakness. I am long AUDUSD, .76 seems feasible. Been a laggard thinking a catch-up is due, but hope not it's the markets indicating valuation through lower relative strength.
TickerShuffl,

Seems feasible, however, while commodities are soft, i definitely wouldn't put much hope in the upward direction. And now that EUR is retracing, it'll drag aud down.
  • #97
  • Dec 19, 2008 7:11pm Dec 19, 2008 7:11pm
Quoting Groovy
TickerShuffl,

Seems feasible, however, while commodities are soft, i definitely wouldn't put much hope in the upward direction. And now that EUR is retracing, it'll drag aud down.
You speak the truth. Looking for commodity rebound in 2009...but not banking everything on it. The fact that EURO soared and commodities barely knudged higher and in fact oil went down...tells me something...

Thanks for the reminder!
  • #98
  • Dec 19, 2008 7:40pm Dec 19, 2008 7:40pm
The AUD will most likely just remain the carry trades' play thing for a good while to come. Commodities may well remain subdued for some considerable time. At times like this, the AUD doesn't stand on it's own merits, it's just a toy for shorting cover.

Makes me smile when I hear the evening news reports here about how the Aussie dollar is trading at xyz... like it means something about the Australian economy, which of course, it doesn't.

Just be careful if you are looking to swing trade the AUD long, it gets bought up expressly so it can be sold. Until commodity prices move back up, it is not a particularly good bet, unless of course, you want the interest rate differential (4.25% here at present).
  • #99
  • Dec 19, 2008 9:21pm Dec 19, 2008 9:21pm
Thanks Groovy and others for the imput. Still in the trade myself but set my stops to lock in gains.

Latest BoP figures (merchandise trade) show Aus is still net exporter. However the gap is no chasm, so the expensive Euro will hurt exporters in EU trading with the Aussies.

But then again I'm no economist and readily admit that's the most difficult side of trading. So my weekend will be consumed with delving into these figures, great fun !
  • #100
  • Dec 20, 2008 8:45am Dec 20, 2008 8:45am
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