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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #149,741
  • Dec 16, 2008 6:10pm Dec 16, 2008 6:10pm
Quoting freed123
Hay Man, just to confirm that I understand you mean, you think he should be down to 126 and then reverts to the 180-190, and wants to take long from now to the 126,

How should be the ratio of capital to the contract, and thank you.
It is based on your utility, how much retracement can you stand? If you think 126 is the going to be the lowest it can get then do the math 138 - 126 is 1200 pips. How many lots can you afford to be down on 1200 pips and not freak out or blow out your account?

Some people will recognize this as being low and it will eventually go up close to 200 in the longer term maybe even higher based on the monthly chart... so they start to accumulate buys under 140 or 138 whatever and when it rebounds they just sit back and wait a few months or even years before closing out their trades (going long usually takes longer for the market to move as opposed to a bear market)...

It's all in your utility.

Pred
  • #149,742
  • Edited 7:28pm Dec 16, 2008 6:17pm | Edited 7:28pm
its late night in london and i'm awake for asia, been sleeping all day...i see GY did pretty much nothing..nada...zero...finito.......baby

ok right now i've got no positions but PA is now above my UTL and GAnn. My ichi's are flat so they are saying nothing at the moment but when i look at lower TF say 1HR..it looks a lot more interesting..

i will be entering a position long @ 136.00, i'm targeting the 157 which is pretty long term. I have a hedge short from 135 If PA gets there.
  • #149,743
  • Dec 16, 2008 7:38pm Dec 16, 2008 7:38pm
Quoting Predator38
It is based on your utility, how much retracement can you stand? If you think 126 is the going to be the lowest it can get then do the math 138 - 126 is 1200 pips. How many lots can you afford to be down on 1200 pips and not freak out or blow out your account?

Some people will recognize this as being low and it will eventually go up close to 200 in the longer term maybe even higher based on the monthly chart... so they start to accumulate buys under 140 or 138 whatever and when it rebounds they just sit back and wait a few months or even years...

thank pred you was clear.
  • #149,744
  • Dec 16, 2008 7:57pm Dec 16, 2008 7:57pm
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  • #149,745
  • Dec 16, 2008 8:36pm Dec 16, 2008 8:36pm
Quoting cohiba pips
Yup, mulitiple tops .. plus bearish div all over the place. I think the divergence has to play out first before any upside move.
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  • #149,746
  • Dec 16, 2008 8:41pm Dec 16, 2008 8:41pm
Quoting mktjong
Yup, mulitiple tops .. plus bearish div all over the place. I think the divergence has to play out first before any upside move.
Same scenario with GU ..
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  • #149,747
  • Dec 16, 2008 8:45pm Dec 16, 2008 8:45pm
Quoting mktjong
Same scenario with GU ..
i would be careful placing bets on the dollar gaining stregnth here... 0.25% is LOWWWW

Pred
  • #149,748
  • Dec 16, 2008 8:50pm Dec 16, 2008 8:50pm
Quoting Predator38
i would be careful placing bets on the dollar gaining stregnth here... 0.25% is LOWWWW

Pred
whattt .25
  • #149,749
  • Dec 16, 2008 8:51pm Dec 16, 2008 8:51pm
Quoting Predator38
i would be careful placing bets on the dollar gaining stregnth here... 0.25% is LOWWWW

Pred
I agreed. I think the market had priced in the 50 bps cut but another extra 25 bps was really a surprise. The question is: What 25 bps would do to the price? 250 pips? If so, it has already done so..
  • #149,750
  • Dec 16, 2008 8:54pm Dec 16, 2008 8:54pm
Quoting mktjong
I agreed. I think the market had priced in the 50 bps cut but another extra 25 bps was reaally a surprise. The question is: What 25 bps would do to the price? 250 pips? If so, it has already done so..
i guess it depends on which timeframe you are looking at... I am seeing a longer term effect of the dollar getting pounded (no pun intended)... i mean they implied a 0%-0.25%

I mean WTF does the 0% mean? Free money???? LOL the 250 was the initial knee jerk reaction of surprising the market... longer term it's going to affect it big time IMO (mostly because they stated that due to depressed oil prices this rate may remain here for some time).
  • #149,751
  • Dec 16, 2008 8:56pm Dec 16, 2008 8:56pm
Quoting mktjong
I agreed. I think the market had priced in the 50 bps cut but another extra 25 bps was really a surprise. The question is: What 25 bps would do to the price? 250 pips? If so, it has already done so..
250pip up or down?
  • #149,752
  • Dec 16, 2008 9:00pm Dec 16, 2008 9:00pm
Quoting Dacow
250pip up or down?
.. up
  • #149,753
  • Dec 16, 2008 9:09pm Dec 16, 2008 9:09pm
Quoting mktjong
.. up
us$ will be trash in coming months if higherinflation arrives due to this easing.
  • #149,754
  • Dec 16, 2008 9:11pm Dec 16, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting Predator38
i would be careful placing bets on the dollar gaining stregnth here... 0.25% is LOWWWW

Pred
whattttttttt is .25 percent
  • #149,755
  • Dec 16, 2008 9:11pm Dec 16, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting lilmoe
i'm great bro

yep, gj's been almost a good girl latel.. lol... but now i'm holding longs. cought today's low at the touch of 4h gann and looking forward to add more longs as we go up.. i'm hoping we reach my intial longer term target at daily 50ema

what about u?
no 250? (J/K)
  • #149,756
  • Dec 16, 2008 9:16pm Dec 16, 2008 9:16pm
Quoting cohiba pips
whattttttttt is .25 percent
The new interest rate for the U.S. Fed

Go to CNBC.com it's on the headline, it's pretty big news...
  • #149,757
  • Dec 16, 2008 9:23pm Dec 16, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting Predator38
The new interest rate for the U.S. Fed

Go to CNBC.com it's on the headline, it's pretty big news...
important news just not clear in your post .25 is low

not a .75 percent cut
  • #149,758
  • Dec 16, 2008 9:42pm Dec 16, 2008 9:42pm
Reaching the Daily 50 ema (149.55) is a worthy goal
but I see continuation of a downward pattern which
may move up to touch the 4Hr 90 ema (139.23)
or further up to touch the daily 20 ema (139.80).

Dr. D.
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  • #149,759
  • Dec 16, 2008 9:51pm Dec 16, 2008 9:51pm
h3 ema120 again
its tankin but where is a target ?
  • #149,760
  • Dec 16, 2008 10:02pm Dec 16, 2008 10:02pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Reaching the Daily 50 ema (149.55) is a worthy goal
but I see continuation of a downward pattern which
may move up to touch the 4Hr 90 ema (139.23)
or further up to touch the daily 20 ema (139.80).

Dr. D.

Before we go up so we can go down
we have to go down so we can go up.

Forex is easy.... if you use MMA's.

ha ha ha

Dr. D.

5 min 120 ema
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