The Grail Unvailed

Hey there ya' young whippersnapper... I remember paying $0.25 / UK Gallon of Gas...
Bread was also $0.25 / loaf & IBM was $25.00/share...

I know this resounds of "Buy & Hold" but there is actually a reason for their Madness.

Diversify your Holdings NOW.

There are some Steals available right now that you should not consider cashing in for some 20 years or so.

Don't ask me which ones, I'm looking after mine, You look after Yours.
Besides, I don't have the time to evaluate all the suggestions that {I feel} this suggestion may generate.

We've All heard it & Claim to Observe it But, Now is the Time to Buck The Trend. If you are fortunate enough to have some loose Cash; then Buy your selections Now.

Indicies are approximating potential FX Gains with less risk or guesswork.
Albeit they have a greater Margin.

S&P and Dow indexes are currently on sale for 50% off, I'm not sure how long this sale will last though Judging by the fact that history repeats itself, I think they might go up in the future

What does the above statement mean?


I'd like to own a farm and cash in 20 years from now.

Peter Schiff and some others are saying The Dow & Gold will hit 1:1. Whatever that will be. Dow 6000 Gold 6000, Dow 3000 Gold 3000. That will be rock bottom @ 1:1 according to some smart people.

If you don't understand it, it means you have a little more studying to do. But, That's OK. I think you will have enough Time to do so & still benifit.

Yeah, there is much to learn and the more I learn the less I know.

I think dow lost 80% of it's value during the great depression in like 3 years so anything is possible. If gold cracks 1k again I don't think it will be coming back. I don't use any indicators when I trade, just price, but for those who love them the Dow and S&P are probably around 50% fibs levels right now

I don't think I've heard anyone predict the oil going from 140s to under 50 in 6 months, I bet most didn't see that coming, but I heard a bunch of experts say that it will hit over 200 by the end of 2008. Are we going to see 20 ?

I heard someone say this and I think it was jacko "markets move in ways that will hurt the most amount of people" which is way so many wash out.

That strategy applies I think more when it comes to buying distressed industries (banking, auto).

A gentleman called Lindsey Williams went on the radio and said it would go to 50 in Feb or Jun of this year. He had info directly from insiders. He's done several interviews, so should be easy to find if one cares to look.

I predicted $70, lol. That's where a lot of the OPEC production is hedged at. I figured if it drops below that OPEC would start cutting production (and they are, just hasn't worked yet), and that'd force a bottom.

Back in June I postponed a small move (a storage shed full of stuff) because gas was so expensive. "I'll do it next March" and everyone thought I was an idiot "It'll be $10/gal by then!!"

It's all just regression to the mean. Never over-extrapolate the trend.

If you are investing, rather than trading, now is an excellent time to start looking for long term deals. I, personally, am waiting for retail sales numbers to be known before dollar cost averaging back in w/ an SL of around -20% move. I've been out of equities since last December.

I'm a e-commerce consultant for small-mid size businesses. The retail sales numbers for Q4 will be bad, but for Q1 they will be worse, and Q2 even worse by what I'm seeing in my neck of the woods.

Did you get out of equities because you were unsure about the market or because you thought bad times were ahead. If bad times, why didn't you just short the market?

About 2 months ago I saw an interview on CNBC with someone saying gold and DOW would meet at 5,000 too. I don't think gold will go that high, but I think the DOW will go into the 5,000's before end of 2009. I'm thinking a 3-1 ratio is more realistic - 2000 gold, 6000 dow. Better buy some gold, and short the dow until a "true" bottom is acknowledged. The coming of the second mortgage crisis with all the 3 and 5 year ARMS reseting next year should push the market lower.

I'm a e-commerce consultant for small-mid size businesses. The retail sales numbers for Q4 will be bad, but for Q1 they will be worse, and Q2 even worse by what I'm seeing in my neck of the woods.

Did you get out of equities because you were unsure about the market or because you thought bad times were ahead. If bad times, why didn't you just short the market?

About 2 months ago I saw an interview on CNBC with someone saying gold and DOW would meet at 5,000 too. I don't think gold will go that high, but I think the DOW will go into the 5,000's before end of 2009. I'm thinking a 3-1 ratio is more realistic - 2000 gold, 6000 dow. Better buy some gold, and short the dow until a "true" bottom is acknowledged. The coming of the second mortgage crisis with all the 3 and 5 year ARMS reseting next year should push the market lower.

I think $30/barrel for oil is rock bottom. It will be back over $100 in 10-16 months. Combine that with the second mortgage trouble and the U.S. and the world is in one heap of trouble. Recession is going to start with a 'D' not an 'R'

I'm not concerned about whether they'll be bad or good, I just happen to think that as important as it is... it's probably the last bit of really big news that needs priced in. I think '09 will end up being fine, but we'll have to price in the next round of bankruptcies before it's all over and done with. We've got a confluence of events here, not the least of which is the fear over a new administration.

This was for my IRA. There are certain rules, you can't take shorts and you can't use leverage. So I scaled out and into a cash fund. Prior to that I was in index funds and had a little bit of stock. That's actually what prompted me to study forex, as prior to that I had no interest in a more hands-on approach. But historically, bear markets bring increased volatility... and the only way to compensate for that is work on a smaller TF. I got out because a moving average crossover on the weekly TF combined with the bad news told me that this thing wasn't going to be light.

If you take a look at the 9 EMA and the 21 EMA on the weekly, and test that over time, you'll find a nice edge. It's not perfect, but that's why you also scale in and out of positions at pre-defined levels and stay aware of the macro situation.

Macro situation + technical confirmation + dollar cost averaging = Good long term IRA strategy.

It won't make you fantastically rich overnight, and you'll never sell the exact tops or buy the exact bottoms, but it will keep you out of trouble and keep you in the direction of the trend. If more average investors had even a tiny clue about technical analysis we'd be in such a different boat right now.

I never trust these guys. People that say gold will go to xxxx are usually just long gold and trying to dump their position to the masses. Right now the DOW is on a retracement level. Behavior around those levels is perfectly predictable. It either holds, tests and fails, or tests and breaks down to the next one. That's why I scale into these positions and set a stop loss below the last retracement level. If price breaks below current and starts testing the next one down, I don't want to be there.

I dunno. I'm way more optimistic than that. I think we've seen most of the worst. There's a guy, forget his name, in the Market Wizards books... he collected newspaper clippings. The worst of the worst news always seems to come out right before things turn around. Of course that's hindsight, and you can't really trade on that, but it does make a statement about people's need to assume the worst in bad times in order to feel better. And if anything it reminds us not to get caught up in the fear mongering.

As for oil, I don't trade it, but I do like to watch it. I tend to look at it from a fair value standpoint, rather than a "what price is it today?" standpoint. Most of the big OPEC countries are hedged between $50 and $75 a barrel from what I've read. Considering that they've made budget decisions based on this, they're under political pressure to keep price at that level. Considering that, I tend to think they'll force a fair value around there. The rest is all just regression to the mean as the market adjusts.

"Indicies are approximating potential FX Gains with less risk or guesswork."

- only if a "now" $5 stock is a great value versus it's "then" $40 bubble price.

"then" may not be coming back. $5 now may or may not be a good value.

the "then" was six months ago; an illusory world of easy money, credit, and leverage. those days - and those prices - may not return.

time for new thinking.

and, anyway, a stock or a fund is just a piece of paper that you hope someone else will pay more for than you did. there is no actual or real connection between stock value and company earnings except in people's minds.

it's just a confidence game.

I read this years ago:

The Alpha Strategy. The Ultimate Plan of Financial Self-Defense. for the Small Saver and Investor. By John A. Pugsley

Whenever I saw a copy in a thrift store, I would buy it and give it to friends. There's a free pdf that you can download.

Wisdom of the ages between the covers.

1/3 of the way through, really cool.