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UK joining the Euro? EURGBP at 1.0000 ?

  • #41
  • Dec 14, 2008 4:01am Dec 14, 2008 4:01am
it is economics , not a matter of pride
  • #42
  • Dec 14, 2008 5:23am Dec 14, 2008 5:23am
GBP is not going to turn in to Euro like 99% of traders they all talk about hype and take things to far. Want my point of view?

Start shorting this pair ASAP and watch as GBP comes stronger from now till start of next Feb 2009.

1.0 will not be seen forget it if you think that Euro zone is in a good state better than rest of world i think you will find you are very wrong

Any way as i said im short all the way now if you think its going to 1.0 go long take buys and take the loss.
Private Account Manager & Trader since 1999
  • #43
  • Dec 14, 2008 5:33am Dec 14, 2008 5:33am
When you accept another currency you lose control of your monetary policy and all that it does to your economy.

For much of Europe monetary policy had to be strong, as the individual nations didn't have a large industrial base. Coupled w/ the benefits of trade between the EU nations there was a distinct economic benefit that outweighed most of the (then) perceived downsides.

The UK would not benefit as much from trade, has a larger base and more monetary options. Coupled w/ the recessionary economy, joining the EU right now would be suicide. It carries all of the liabilities and few of the benefits.
  • #44
  • Dec 14, 2008 6:24am Dec 14, 2008 6:24am
Quoting Rabid
When you accept another currency you lose control of your monetary policy and all that it does to your economy.

For much of Europe monetary policy had to be strong, as the individual nations didn't have a large industrial base. Coupled w/ the benefits of trade between the EU nations there was a distinct economic benefit that outweighed most of the (then) perceived downsides.

The UK would not benefit as much from trade, has a larger base and more monetary options. Coupled w/ the recessionary economy, joining the EU right now would be suicide....
Loy, yeah, accepting a new currency = accepting defeat = surrendering. Moreover, it`s too bad for the exporters in Europe.
  • #45
  • Dec 14, 2008 7:28am Dec 14, 2008 7:28am
Quote
Loy, yeah, accepting a new currency = accepting defeat = surrendering. Moreover, it`s too bad for the exporters in Europe.

I think you missed my point. It has nothing to do with "accepting defeat" or "surrendering." It has to do with the very rational and sensible premise of "We have nothing to gain and a whole lot to lose." It's the very same reason why Canada and Mexico both have their own currencies.

The exporters in Europe are just that, exporters. They're a business. It's their job to make it work, just as it's the BoE's job to make sure monetary policy fits the needs of the UK. The Bank of England has a duty to maintain an effective monetary policy, they cannot just merely pass that duty to someone else and expect the same care to be given to their needs.

Long story short... What's in it for the UK? Why would they want to do this? What possible rational, financial motivations would drive it?
  • #46
  • Dec 14, 2008 7:37am Dec 14, 2008 7:37am
Quote
Loy, yeah, accepting a new currency = accepting defeat = surrendering. Moreover, it`s too bad for the exporters in Europe.

accepting new reality = going forward stronger = taking the lead of the EZ
shorting the EUR/GBP is like catching a falling knife (for now)
  • #47
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:06am Dec 14, 2008 8:06am
Quoting arthurb
accepting new reality = going forward stronger = taking the lead of the EZ
shorting the EUR/GBP is like catching a falling knife (for now)
yes, i guess. But 1 thing is clear... You are long on this pair
  • #48
  • Dec 14, 2008 1:09pm Dec 14, 2008 1:09pm
a lot of room yet
no short until triangle holds
TP is purple line.
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  • #49
  • Dec 14, 2008 1:29pm Dec 14, 2008 1:29pm

Last night, as skiing operators and other holiday companies across the UK reported customers shunning expensive trips in favour of cut-price deals, Currency Exchange on London's Oxford Street was selling euros for as little as €1.0532 to the pound. After commission and a handling fee, however, €18 cost The Observer £19.61, an exchange rate of €0.918 to the pound.

'Even today people are rushing to pronounce its death warrant. Now it is plainly the world's second currency after the dollar. As the pound becomes more volatile and less valuable, the euro will be seen increasingly as a safe haven - a zone in which both British industry and the City of London would flourish. The question is not if Britain will join, but when - and how many working lives and businesses will be wrecked by ideological opposition before it does.'

The Treasury last night refused to comment on sterling's fall and said there was no prospect of entering the euro in the near future. Official rates showed the pound was worth €1.11 yesterday. At its high point against the euro in May 2000, a pound was worth €1.746.

complete article here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...rencies-europe

  • #50
  • Dec 15, 2008 6:02am Dec 15, 2008 6:02am
broke the psychological 0.9 level
no more turning back now
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  • #51
  • Dec 15, 2008 6:48am Dec 15, 2008 6:48am
I've just bought a lot of christmas presents online from UK
Saved about 40%

I hope they keep being cautious in joining the euro, it's a big move.
Traders are smartasses
  • #52
  • Dec 16, 2008 2:14am Dec 16, 2008 2:14am
Quoting 5ysfx
a lot of room yet
no short until triangle holds
TP is purple line.
Hey man, it's Toshi !

I see you've got out your charts again. Looking at Euro/Pound @ .90

That's like what, a 40 year chart or something ? Don't you have any long term data ?

Stop scalping the 40 year chart !
  • #53
  • Dec 16, 2008 2:42am Dec 16, 2008 2:42am
Quoting yentastic
GBP is not going to turn in to Euro like 99% of traders they all talk about hype and take things to far. Want my point of view?

Start shorting this pair ASAP and watch as GBP comes stronger from now till start of next Feb 2009.

1.0 will not be seen forget it if you think that Euro zone is in a good state better than rest of world i think you will find you are very wrong

Any way as i said im short all the way now if you think its going to 1.0 go long take buys and take the loss.

Hey Yen,

I gotta ask since you're in the UK.
Do you feel the sentiment toward the Pound has become so strongly negative enough for a reversal ?

This is what happened a few weeks ago here in the states when the Dollar looked like it was on it's last legs.
Although it's come off a bit in the last few days, plus Dollar Yen has not been pretty,
the dollar was far from destroyed this year as many predicted. There's always next year.

No $2 euro for now. Parity (1:1) with aussie and cad was thousands of pips ago
and Sterling is down 25% against the buck. Granted, this could all just be a short term pop.

So, is that what you're observing in the UK amongst the general population regarding the Pound ?
Such rampant bearishness about the local currency that atleast a short term reprive is in order ?
If it is, then maybe it would make more sense about being short Euro and long Pound.

I take it you bought the pound at €1.11 (£.9000). How will your position change at €1.20 ?
Will you add more or cover ? €1.30 was only 2 months ago, is that one of your targets as well ?

If you don't mind explaining some of this, it might begin to make more sense since the trend
has been wickedly up for waaaaay longer than anyone was willing to predict.
  • #54
  • Dec 16, 2008 5:42am Dec 16, 2008 5:42am
Quoting toshi
Hey man, it's Toshi !

I see you've got out your charts again. Looking at Euro/Pound @ .90

That's like what, a 40 year chart or something ? Don't you have any long term data ?

Stop scalping the 40 year chart !
Hi
U always crack me up
i have to be prepared for posibble price range scalping in microchannels
  • #55
  • Dec 16, 2008 6:14am Dec 16, 2008 6:14am
I don't trade this pair but I follow it closely as I trade in £ and oftend spend euros... so, not feeling great about it. Although , i wouldn't consider short right now technically and fundamentally.

Anyway, UK is a big importer of European goods, not just that, Brithish are a big source of European shopping and tourism. £ so low is not good for the UK and not even for Europe.
Will they switch to Euro, maybe... when is the question, I don't think they would want to do that now.
If economy goes in cycles, we have seen the crisis starting in the US, followed closely by the UK and now the Euro zone... The Euro zone has problem with the main street economy, even if banks might be safer. In the Euro zone, if your data as a country don't respect the budget, you get a fine... don't forget there are country like Italy, where faking data no to pay a fine, it's a walk in the park.
In my ignorant opinion, I believe that the UK will soon or later come out of this mess, and Europe has not idea on what still has to come.
  • #56
  • Dec 16, 2008 12:13pm Dec 16, 2008 12:13pm
Quoting yentastic
GBP is not going to turn in to Euro like 99% of traders they all talk about hype and take things to far. Want my point of view?

Start shorting this pair ASAP and watch as GBP comes stronger from now till start of next Feb 2009.

1.0 will not be seen forget it if you think that Euro zone is in a good state better than rest of world i think you will find you are very wrong

Any way as i said im short all the way now if you think its going to 1.0 go long take buys and take the loss.
Yen,

What's your status ? Do you copy ? Is this the top ? current bid 0.9030
  • #57
  • Dec 17, 2008 7:47am Dec 17, 2008 7:47am
I admit I was expecting a bit more of retrace after the 0,90 target... to reenter
0,92.... it starts to be calling 1.0 or not?
  • #58
  • Dec 17, 2008 8:15am Dec 17, 2008 8:15am
Quoting emda
I admit I was expecting a bit more of retrace after the 0,90 target... to reenter
0,92.... it starts to be calling 1.0 or not?
around 93-94
tough moment for euro

better fasten ur seatbelt...
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  • #59
  • Edited 10:00am Dec 17, 2008 9:55am | Edited 10:00am
if after the eventual retrace still holds above 0.9 , then the fate of the doomed currency , is sealed.
the cabbage (GBP), has to be replaced, by a more stable one

first resistance at 216.8 projection 0.9327
  • #60
  • Dec 17, 2008 11:34am Dec 17, 2008 11:34am
Quoting 5ysfx
around 93-94
tough moment for euro

better fasten ur seatbelt...
wow... I have the seatbelt...
already in your zone
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