Cable - Are the good old days over

I have been trading cable for a while now and it seems that the last few months have seen cable struggling to trend... this isn't normal behavior of cable is it?

Does anyone have an idea as to why this is?

Are there any fundamentals that are causing cable to be such a choppy, range bound market?

Could the fact that the interest rates are the same have anything to do with it?

I see it this way ... we should take what the market gives us... we know we are 70 % of the time range bound in FX .... only 30% of the time its trending. So nothing new here lately.

I also think that we should not be greedy... I even take the crumbs off the table ... every little trade even if its for 5 pips at a time, adds up at the end of the month. I know its more work to 'see' a trade when its so rangebound but still good opportunities to make good money.

Because we are so often rangebound try and go for indicators that are quick and shows you when we should expect the market to be range bound... here I think ADX.

Good luck !

Thanks for your reply...

I trade off of support and resistance, pivots and some fibs on occasion. I feel this is the best way for me to trade.

What I am saying is that up until January of this year Cable had quite nice sustained moves when trading intraday. I used this as a way of trading breakouts... but unfortunately now The market starts moving one way then quickly retraces the next.

I need to first see if this will last hence my first question regarding fundamentals driving this and then obviously I need to change my rules slightly ... any ideas :-)

Yes, get off the intraday frames.

Dopey,

I have considered going to the Daily or 4HR charts but to be honest I just cant see how to enter effectively...

Any tips? Usually I wait for a candle to close and then for the market to move 4-6 pips beyond but that is on a 15 minute timeframe...


Does anyone have experience of trading 4hr or daily charts.... Breakout trading that is?

The patient is rather alive than dead. What the market is doing recently on all the majors including Cable is usually considered as typical trend reversal behavior. However it often takes a lot of time before the market realizes that a longer-term trend is over. Before making a reversal the market usually forms some reversal pattern on the top or the bottom of the trend. From my perspective it looks more or less obvious right now on Cable. Since the very beginning of 2004 it has been forming a broadening triangle that still remains unfinished more than three years into it. There is also a huge probability that this broadening triangle will eventually turn into a diamond. So, based on this projection it would be reasonable to assume that on a longer term Cable will make the following moves sequence: current levels -> 2.0000-04 -> 1.7500 -> 1.9500 ->1.5000. It should take about three more years to complete this pattern and then it will take another 1-1.5 years to reach the longer-term target at 1.5000 –1.4000.

You could have asked the same question back in summer 2006, when the cable went nowhere for almost 4 months...just before making a gigantic 1100 pip move in a few days!

When "nothing" seems to be happening in the forex market for an extended period of time (3 or 4 months), then turn on your breakout radars and get ready for some serious action Ricardo

Hey Fx Terminator,

Thanks for that... That has actually really helped... So these periods do happen....

Great so we should be in for some exciting times ahead