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Ultimate Successful Trading Technique

  • #21
  • Mar 12, 2007 8:46am Mar 12, 2007 8:46am
Quoting mrmikal
Look, if it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is.
In another forum (one of those Yahoo club thing), a trader inserted an image of his demo account and said he had found the holy grail of trading. His trading account was really amazing, he made - get this - over 12,000 pips per lot in 6 months trading only the GBP/JPY!

I could not believe my eyes but the results were real.

Later on I accidentally found out that this scammer (he wanted to sell his system for $2000 a pop) had hundred of demo accounts in his name and that he opened hundred and hundred of opposite positions. He would continuously buy in one account and immediately sell in another, randomly.

Then at the end, he simply put on display the ONLY demo account that performed extremely well.

And of course the traders could not know that for this one extremely good trading account, there were hundred of other LOSING accounts.

Just something for the traders here at FF to keep in mind, this post is absolutely not implying anything.
  • #22
  • Mar 12, 2007 8:52am Mar 12, 2007 8:52am
why still on a demo

Quoting zeekans
Thanks very much for the input. I greatly appreciate the suggestions. Yes this is my first post, but i am not selling anything. I will attach a log of my trades here. Let me answer some specific & pertinent points raised by fellow members

**I think i am past the point where a system can fool me. But i suppose it does not matter what i think. Let me ask Merlyn, when would you consider that i have passed the naive phase, with 100 winners & 0 loss or 200 winners & 0 loss.

** One of the members mentioned that i am making 75-100 pips/month. That is not correct since Jan i have made more than 8000 pips, but for my system position amount is more impt. then pips. In a mini account a pip is worth a dollar & in a regular account it is worth ten dollars;Therefore i will lay my emphasis on positioning.

**I totally agree that results after a year carry some weight. I will keep every one informed of the results on June 30, 2007 & then on Dec. 30, 2007.I will carry on with my demo account following my rules for another year & also continue on my live account. The trades you see in Feb & Mar on my demo, were also placed on a live account & they were all successful

*** One of the members mentioned that this is not a high yielding system. His 30-40% system yields more money. Yes, you may be right, i never mentioned this is the best system, but it is a successful system. I just said i dont see myself losing any trading complex. Food for thought, let say you have thousand dollars in your account & you double it say every 2 yrs. then just do the math, knowing you are not going to lose.

** I think this is a simple & easy system for people who do not want to spend too much time, & are happy to see their accounts grow steadily but surely.

Thanks again for your input
I am trying to attach files from the additional options menu but nothing is happening. i will try to figure out & then send in my trading log
  • #23
  • Mar 12, 2007 10:40am Mar 12, 2007 10:40am
Quoting kharvell
100% wins + slow growth = underemployed money making.

First of all, congratulations on your system. 100% is something most will only dream about. Secondly, assuming it is 100%, why even think about risk management? If I were you, I would risk at least 50% of my account per trade and retire in one or two years. Of course, maybe you are doubting that it is actually 100%, although you seem quite confident; having shared it with us here at FF.

In regards to keeping it to yourself, KEEP IT TO YOURSELF! Hmmm.... 100%.... What can I do with a PERFECT system?

1. Signal Service
2. Fund Management
3. Get flippin' RICH
4. Write books
5. Sell the method.

etc. etc.

If you want others to have an advantage over you, by all means let us know your system!

Regards,

Kevin
Yes!! Close all forex forums also where everyone is trying to share and help others, because if it actually works, people are told not to share.. So all the stuff here is just garbage so all of you can just stop reading the posts!!

NOW.. how do you get ideas for tradingsystem? reading what others have done? steal a piece here and one there? So if no one had shared had you had your system? Yeah.. lets stop shareing... Thats the problem here, everyone questions everything, because no one would ever share anything that works?!

Fact is that there's probably many other systems here that make more money or pips, but it takes traders to use them, NOT "backtestergeeks" who wouldn't even know if they actually had a good thing in their hands or do not dare to trade with real money unless is says "No Loosing Trades" in the thread title.

Everyone can make money in forex, but only the realistic ones.. Holy Grail searchers just stay here and debate with systemdevelopers because they dont dare put their money online.

Look for user "Trader101" , I take my hat of for him, he starts out showing his trades in realtime based on his system, instead of screaming out that he has it! No backtester issues, you get it all in realtime. Hopefully he will commit to his statement and reveal his strategy when he has proven to all backtestergeeks thats the future trades that count, not trades already gone.

And remember that, I would guess, 99% av all "systems" is a product of others peoples work, tweaked to fit their style of trading. It doesnt mean it fits your style.

I love linux.. no greed.

No dont share because within a week, all forextraders around the world will be using this system and currency rates will freeze:surprised

My first post here and it had to be a sad post.
  • #24
  • Mar 12, 2007 10:52am Mar 12, 2007 10:52am
Sorry but I don't believe that any system is 100% accurate based on TA. Even a no stoploss system will have to cry uncle at some point. If no trade calls are made, I'm calling BS

Quoting richy
why dont u just give the username and password of the account (demo i suppose) or post here abt 20 live trades so we all can see?
  • #25
  • Mar 12, 2007 11:11am Mar 12, 2007 11:11am
Quoting frankiev2
Look for user "Trader101" , I take my hat of for him, he starts out showing his trades in realtime based on his system, instead of screaming out that he has it! No backtester issues, you get it all in realtime. Hopefully he will commit to his statement and reveal his strategy when he has proven to all backtestergeeks thats the future trades that count, not trades already gone.
Sure, but the problem with realtime trades is that you need to follow them for at least 5 years to prove that the system is working, assuming you place one trade a day.

Backtests take only seconds.

If a system cannot pass the backtest test first, then we have definitively, positively no reason to believe that it is going to suddenly start making money in real time, out of the blue just like that.
  • #26
  • Mar 12, 2007 11:51am Mar 12, 2007 11:51am
First off, who actually works 9-5?? Where I come from, even the salaried people are forced to work 9-6 or 8-5. No one gets a free lunch. I'm still looking for the mythical 9-5 job. But that's another subject. Even though I don't see the people who work in an office anywhere get 9-5.

Second, he is sucessful 100% of the time. He did 53 trades. All at least 100 pips.
Therefore he made at least 5300 pips last year, probably more since that key term was "at least 100 pips".
5300 pips is $53,000USD on a standard lot. I don't know about you, but I can trade standards with $1000 account. That's not exactly a double, it's more.
And even on one mini lot, that's still 400% return, not double.
  • #27
  • Mar 12, 2007 3:16pm Mar 12, 2007 3:16pm
Techno maybe I am missing something here but where is the EVIDENCE that he made those trades? There are too many pied-pipers out there, and I don't get my hopes up without reason.
  • #28
  • Mar 12, 2007 4:17pm Mar 12, 2007 4:17pm
Quoting FXTerminator
Sure, but the problem with realtime trades is that you need to follow them for at least 5 years to prove that the system is working, assuming you place one trade a day.

Backtests take only seconds.
Yes welcome to the real world and not the highway that many think your backtesting gives you..

Quoting FXTerminator

If a system cannot pass the backtest test first, then we have definitively, positively no reason to believe that it is going to suddenly start making money in real time, out of the blue just like that.
I have been trading for over 10 years and i have seen markets change so many times that backtesting will not prove anything, good or bad, forwardtesting is the key, i papertraded with my system for a little more than 3 years before pushing the cash in. A tradingsystem has to be "fresh" and up to date with the current conditions. Also backtests need to be done on tickdata, and you dont have that on the MT4 platform.
Also, most people here cant even backtest properly thus the conditions given with the MT4 platform. And if the people can backtest 100 people will come up with 100 dif. results ranging form superduper wins to looses that makes the graph looks like a path to hell so who has the correct backtestingresults?. Please.. forwardtesting is the only way if you dont have the correct tools and data, the backtest with MT4 tell you nothing.

Not all can be "traders", and those who cant want a robot almost like the pokerbots, they cant play poker so they try to build a bot to play for them.

You can trade and make money by just using two MAs, the key is knowing how to use the MAs and when! Many people here also post clones of old and profitable systems, but they have changed them to fit their style. Then other use them and cant make them work, because it's not the original system anymore and maybe not even the right market. Many systems out there was actually buildt for/by option and futurestraders. Some converted to fit the stockmarket. And now people try using them in forex, where the original systems for futures would be better. Timeframe och volatility is the key in systems. A system for scalping on a 10ticks chart cant be used by the swingtrader on his 4H charts.

Take a system here on FF, I think Its called "mouteki". A ripoff of a system that i learned already in the late 1988-89. And when i read the book it was already pretty old back then (cant remember who now), so i guess we are talking mid 70s. I'm still trading with that system and it works great but with all the "small" situations when NOT to trade, that the author in "mouteki" have left out. So now most readers on that system cries because they cant make it work as great as the author and the author doesn't help them anymore?! Now.... Is that a better solution, letting newbies run with half working systems and when someone maybe has something you say "dont share"? No.. sell "working" systems... what can you charge? $199 and how many would you sell? 2-300? $60000 and then minus taxes etc. If your system works that would be pennies. Helping new traders in a scary and fast market and help them make money.. priceless!!!

Not that I belive this threadstarter has a 0% loosing trades system, because I have never ever heard of a system like that. As always man is missing some minor factor when looking at his system. If it is to good to be true, it probably is. Loosing trades are not a bad thing, if you can control them and make better profits. If I can have 20% winning trades that make 5000 pips while having 80% loosers that give back 1000 pips, do I loose money? Not according to my calculator!

The only systems that will work all the time, on all timeframes, are pure priceaction systems, so forget all the systems with 300 colourful indicators with dots all over the charts. Its just to much work for less. Keep it simple..
  • #29
  • Edited 5:16pm Mar 12, 2007 5:05pm | Edited 5:16pm
Quoting frankiev2
I have been trading for over 10 years and i have seen markets change so many times that backtesting will not prove anything
Ok, I am saying this for the last time : markets do NOT (repeat, DO NOT!) change over time, I really really really don't know where people get this idea. Take any chart, any time frame, yearly, weekly, daily, hourly or tick chart and what do you always see : the market going up or going down or going sideway. Up, down and sideway, that's all the market is doing year after year, decade after decade. Sure, more or less volatility at times, but that's about it.

So again, this idea that a good backtested trading system will somehow stop working in the future because the "market change so many times" makes absolutely no sense to me.

Quoting frankiev2
good or bad, forwardtesting is the key, i papertraded with my system for a little more than 3 years before pushing the cash in.
3 years are not enough to draw any conclusion (backtest or forward test), unless you are a high frequency trader.

Quoting frankiev2
A tradingsystem has to be "fresh" and up to date with the current conditions.
This is called optimization or curbe-fitting. A robust trading system does not need that. For example, the now famous Aberration trading system is still making money 20 years after his release with the SAME EXACT parameters on 14 different commodities including the major currencies, even though the market had plenty of time to "change", how do you explain that ?

Quoting frankiev2
backtestingresults?. Please.. forwardtesting is the only way if you dont have the correct tools and data, the backtest with MT4 tell you nothing.
Would you still be happy if you learned that your trading system made money the last 3 years during the forward test but was a consistent loser during the last 7 previous years? Would you still trust and have confidence in your system then ?

Yes forward testing is good, but if your system cannot make money with 5 years of backtest data, forget about it.

Or like they say in the Sopranos : "Fogetaboutit"
  • #30
  • Mar 12, 2007 5:12pm Mar 12, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting FXTerminator
Ok, I am saying this for the last time : markets do NOT (repeat, DO NOT!) change over time, I really really really don't know where people get this idea. Take any chart, any time frame, yearly, weekly, daily, hourly or tick chart and what do you always see : the market going up or going down or going sideway. Up, down and sideway, that's all the market is doing year after year, decade after decade. Sure, more or less volatility at times, but that's about it.

So again, this idea that a good backtested trading system will somehow stop working in the future because the "market change so many times" makes absolutely no sense to me.

3 years are not enough to draw any conclusion (backtest or forward test), unless you are a high frequency trader.

This is called optimization or curbe-fitting. A robust trading system does not need that. For example, the now famous Aberration trading system is still making money 20 years after his release with the SAME EXACT parameters on 14 different commodities including the major currencies, even though the market has plenty of time to "change", how do you explain that ?



Would you still be happy if you learned that your trading system made money the last 3 years during the forward test but was a consistent loser during the last 7 previous years? Would you still trust and have confidence in your system then ?
FXTerminator, if markets don't change, then why isn't just a few weeks enough for to test any idea?

It's not because the markets do change and you have to make sure your system can stay profitable no matter how the market acts.
  • #31
  • Mar 12, 2007 5:27pm Mar 12, 2007 5:27pm
Quoting aicccia
FXTerminator, if markets don't change, then why isn't just a few weeks enough for to test any idea?
Hello Aicccia,

Very simple, you want to make sure that your trading system can survive in every market condition : trend market, range market, choppy market, etc...
It is soooooo easy for ANY trend following system to make money in the GBP/JPY for instance when this currency pair is making mega 1000 pip moves in a few weeks. That's another story when this pair goes into sleeping mode.

With 5 years of backtest data, your system will have plenty of time to "encounter" almost any market scenario possible and if it is still making money, then you can trade it with confidence.

Even better, if your system can survive 20 years of backtest, then no need to worry about your future anymore my friend, you have found the golden goose.

Hope this answers your question.
  • #32
  • Mar 14, 2007 12:39am Mar 14, 2007 12:39am
Lol why not just do both (forward and backtest) if that makes you guys happy? After all, what's important in trading is finding reasons that give you the conviction to enter and exit the trade. If you need to hire time-traveller/voodoomaster to give you advice, by all means, do it. Whatever it takes to achieve the conviction.
  • #33
  • Mar 14, 2007 6:10am Mar 14, 2007 6:10am
Quoting FXTerminator
Hello Aicccia,

Very simple, you want to make sure that your trading system can survive in every market condition : trend market, range market, choppy market, etc...
It is soooooo easy for ANY trend following system to make money in the GBP/JPY for instance when this currency pair is making mega 1000 pip moves in a few weeks. That's another story when this pair goes into sleeping mode.

With 5 years of backtest data, your system will have plenty of time to "encounter" almost any market scenario possible and if it is still making money, then you can trade it with confidence.

Even better, if your system can survive 20 years of backtest, then no need to worry about your future anymore my friend, you have found the golden goose.

Hope this answers your question.
I think you are talking about a system that doesnt exist. Have you come close to finding a system that performs 60% over the course of the past 20 years in backtests?

Only the very gifted traders have been able to maintain a system of trading for 10+ years or so.

I think people are so ready to say markets change (especially forex), because the volume and access to the market has changed so greatly in the past 10 years.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #34
  • Mar 14, 2007 9:05am Mar 14, 2007 9:05am
Although, it doesn't really matter that it is 100%. I promise you... if you release it here on FF, people will immediately EDIT it down to about 60% and give up on it in 2 weeks.


Thats the only sure thing in forex. LOL
  • #35
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:30am Mar 14, 2007 10:30am
Quoting bluemonkey
Although, it doesn't really matter that it is 100%. I promise you... if you release it here on FF, people will immediately EDIT it down to about 60% and give up on it in 2 weeks.


Thats the only sure thing in forex. LOL


Surprised nobody has asked for an EA yet
  • #36
  • Mar 14, 2007 12:40pm Mar 14, 2007 12:40pm
Quoting StockKJay
I think you are talking about a system that doesnt exist. Have you come close to finding a system that performs 60% over the course of the past 20 years in backtests?
Read the February issue of Futures Magazine, it contains the Top Ten Trading systems of all time. 7 of those systems are STILL making money 20 years after their release, in backtest AND real time, while the other 3 are relatively new ("only" 10 years) but are also making money today.

Or visit the "Futures Truth Magazine" (look for it on google) and see for yourself, it is a service that has been tracking trading systems for decades.

So again, a good and robust trading system will make money now or 50 years from now, time has NO effect on its performance.
  • #37
  • Mar 14, 2007 9:38pm Mar 14, 2007 9:38pm
Quoting bluemonkey
Although, it doesn't really matter that it is 100%. I promise you... if you release it here on FF, people will immediately EDIT it down to about 60% and give up on it in 2 weeks.


Thats the only sure thing in forex. LOL
Agreed... but I would put it another way.

The Rookie Race to the prize can take a beautifull system and reduce it to an "Old Hag" in naught but 2 Trades. [No Work... No Use] as measured over minutes.
Solution... Change it.

Understandably there is a mentality that states {me} "I'm 'n old far't and am no longer in touch with the "Virtual Thumber Vid Boys" But if you think that I am leaving the Autoban Lane 4 for you're exclusivity, then I say... Trade On.
In actuallity, throw your money at me harder, I can take it. and I should leave the fourth Lane "racing." for the wreckers...
... Problem for me is that in the Real World, My resposes to questions like these would be differernt every minute...


... Becuase, that's how quickly my Mistress may change her mind.

Answer Is....

Understand Your Mistress...
  • #38
  • Mar 14, 2007 9:54pm Mar 14, 2007 9:54pm
'Emm..I always.."Huu?" each time i read your post Mr.Scoot. I read it a lot but still...or should i say "Ohh yes that's him again..and again..

Btw..I hold my self not to click on this thread since it 100% yada2..but i saw the last post present by Mr.Bemac thats why i hop in...darn i hope u tired soon enough of finding your 100% and join the flow.C'mon stop it..it's hurting u again and again...Have fun all

Quoting Bemac
Agreed... but I would put it another way.

The Rookie Race to the prize can take a beautifull system and reduce it to an "Old Hag" in naught but 2 Trades. [No Work... No Use] as measured over minutes.
Solution... Change it.

Understandably there is a mentality that states {me} "I'm 'n old far't and am no longer in touch with the "Virtual Thumber Vid Boys" But if you think that I am leaving the Autoban Lane 4 for you're exclusivity, then I say... Trade On.
In actuallity, throw your money at me harder, I can take it. and I should leave the fourth Lane "racing." for the wreckers...
... Problem for me is that in the Real World, My resposes to questions like these would be differernt every minute...


... Becuase, that's how quickly my Mistress may change her mind.

Answer Is....

Understand Your Mistress...
  • #39
  • Mar 16, 2007 7:24pm Mar 16, 2007 7:24pm
Just show us the system.....If its great then this thread will become the largest and fastest growing forum......

PS Sunday is 2 days away and I want to be ready when the market opens. I would love to start making some real money so I can retire early.

PPS Hell I'll even buy you a rolls royce with my first mill.
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #40
  • Mar 16, 2007 9:59pm Mar 16, 2007 9:59pm
Hey I'll buy you two rolls royces.

where's this magic system?
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