My Gpb/Jpy trades

Entered trade(short) at 146.5. Stop loss = max ceiling + atr/2 = 148+3=152.

exit planned at S6 - major trend down expected due to 3rd time bounce from the ceiling.

S6 = pivot - 3*atr = 148.5-3.5*3=138.

pip gain 146.5-138 = 800pips or more.


Note: The max ceiling changed after the break down through the
floor on 11/12/08. Used the candlestick max for 11/12 and 11/13
to calculate ceiling max.

Entered short at 137.5 - triggered stoplimit at 140.5. lost
300pips/

Assumed breakthrough after candlesticks on 12/04,
moved below floor-atr/2. Entered too early.
It could be that the actural breakthrough took place on 12/03 (and not on 12/04 which threw me off)
12/04 cnadlestick then is the indicator of the ceiling max.
Ceiling max = 138.5+50pips(for some extra margin protection) = 139.

max atr forecast ~= 5.

atr/2 = 2.5.

So stop limit= 139+2.5=141.5.

Planning reentry around 138.6 with a 300pip downside risk potential.

Momentum doesn't look so good. this run is going to take a while.

The price crossed S2 (around 137.5) and moved the trade stop loss
to b/e but moved it back to 141.5 an hour later, judging a slow break through.

if breakthrough starts - 1000pip gain potential.

moved limit to 125.

atr being around 4 the next range should be around 2*atr or 2.5*atr -
800 to 1000 pip wide.

it is a wait and watch approach as there is no reasonable calculation
on how far the break through might run.

Finally prices headed down last night to stop below S4 at 133.5.

The prices finally moved past the point to around 132.

gain = 138.6-133.5=500. (changed the exit limit to the same yesterday)

Breakout imminent next week. Momentum compelling! Planning a re-entry 100pip below ceiling max 138.5-100=137.5.
added another entry @ 138.5

exit limit - 120

Entered (short)trade at 137.5 (sl at 141) with 4% money- risk is now close to 14%.
(Added 2% to the existing 2% already in trade)

Expecting a slow break through. The momentum still dragging its feet.

If breakthrough defaults, 14% loss - if that happens there is a definite
change in trend forecast for the future.

Exit is at 120 - no support/resistance calculation here as the range is broken and expecting
a fall to the downside. Might change the number to reflect a possible support as the breakthough
if happens and proceeds.

The breakthough is in movement finally. moved exits to 130 - close to S6.

130 is a low point hit during 1995 time frame (historical information).

Higher British unemployment and poorer retail sales signal further down turn.

Trade Shown - possible breakout in progress

exited on 132 on last trade. Looks like another setup developing
with breakthrough to the lower of 130 or below.

Planning reentry (short) around 131.5 w/ stop around 140

Stop limit extented slightly by 50 pips until, cell phone alerts could be
established. Stop is at 134.5.

Loss and Gain potential of 300 pips each.

Exit point using S3 - from Action forex standard pivots (weekly)

Ceiling max calculation needed to be changed in the last minute.

The current ceiling is 134 and places the stop at 1/2 atr above which
is 135.5.

Changed exits to S2 - from action forex standard pivots -to 130.41

That was a loss or what!

Guess the trend is changing. Waitin out of trading until trend
stabilizes.

Getting into the weekly trend is both a winner and a cusion against
a bad trade to heal itself.

Got into a sell position yesterday (against the trend) at 125.6 and lost a 100pips. The only issue was the trend - all other indicators macd, stochastics couldn't be better and still lost money.

Strangely though it healed itself after the exit, probably due to a combination of news events and a early indicators of future trend reversal.

Entered another trade to upside at 125.5 and it got me a 100pip gain
though it wasn't cashed out.

wiser for the experience.

PS. Since the trend is going to taper to an end soon, planning exit at 126.5 and wait for
a down trend to start.

Finally found a way to adjust to trend reversals such as this one!!

A successful trade (long) after a major trend reversal.

An unsustained breakout below 130 followed by a breakthrough
back to the top accross 130 provided the clue on a complete reversal!
for the past whole year, it has been trending down with
breakouts always to the bottom and the few ones trying to
breakout to the top, never overlapping a previous range.

On extensive chart study one thing to realize is that a reversal
such as the above can be overlooked only in cases of a fall
through multiple floors when such reversals is just a stabilizing
flow back more than any actual reversal. Not this one though,
this is for real - (until it breaksdown to the bottom to a prev range)

The issue with current strategy is that it gives a good idea about the
range trading style of trading. However there are limitation of use.
The strategy is hinged on the fact that there is an underlying trend.
However there are years such as 2002 when gbp/jpy shows no
real trend.

Since the trading style uses floors and ceilings and
"pattern-reading" to understand trend reversals it might still be useful
as a "big-picture" tool to evaluate the market conditions, overall trend,
floors and ceilings of ranges and so forth.

The new strategy which is being developed uses internal trends within
ranges to make profits based upon the internal ceilings or just fixed financial
gains from a regular stream of small but significant pips in the order of
50-200pips. The strategy unlike the previous one would be independent
of the overall trend but would instead depend more on internal trends
which though are hard to predict, occur more frequently and can
consistently generate profitable returns with probably a 10% failure
rate of losing 100-150 pips. A loss then would be followed by a stop-trade
self imposed moratorium upto 24 hours and analysis to ascertain
why it occured.

Internal trend prediction which is key, is based on slow stochastics, macd,
candles stick patterns, floors/ceilings and overall trend (if present).
If more than 3 out of 5 indicators above predict a certain direction,
it is then assumed to be the internal trend and trades are place accordingly.

A series of charts showing trades, following this, might explain how it
could be done.

All major news event days would be treated differently since the news
event has the likelyhood to upset the trade setup and thus trades
to be placed after the event or not to be placed at all.

Got in at 141.5 and exited at 144 when the trend went the otherway.

Unexpected breakout from range top.

Fine-tuning strategy to use both calculated trend using stochastics, floors,
ceilings AND THEN bullet-proofing it with observed day-trend which would unfortunately leave
most of the day, especially most of the late night session, untraded.
However, it acts as a natural cherry picker to filter out the unpredictable
trend changes once and for all.

Moving gain limits up to 100pips from previous 50 for better risk reward ratio.

moving pip gain to an arbitrary 100 wasn't such a good idea.

a more appropriate way would be to go 1.5atr(close to 100pips with
current volatility) FROM the pivot point (where the sellers or buyers
lose steam - not the std pivot readout from any web page).
Makes a big difference in trade success sustainablility since the
value is related to current volatility and calculated based on actual pivots.
Once the prices are headed in the trade direction and the trade is
in the money, place stop at pivot! (guess that should cover all bases)

lost another 300pips when the market went the other way yesternight.

the day trend was a strong down trend which pitched on the floor around
141 and moved upwards rather quickly. missed the limit by 40pips.

There doesn't seem to be reasons as to why the trend didn't deliver except for the fact
that all other major trend indicators except slow stochastics on the
day chart indicated an upcoming upward trend.

Still what surprised me was the sudden-ness of the move. Come Euro
time zone, the prices shot high past the pivot and stoped the trade
out at 50pip loss.

True the trade was at the fag end of the day and there is always a probability
such an event would happen, however low it maybe.

Now that the trend is confidently up, day trend included,
trade works like a charm.

70 pip gain from the entry on stochastic low and momentum
turn around.

Nice.

Did a complete reanalysis of past trades for the month of March.
Shows a 95% success rate.

have you seen tattons thread, cool runnings?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=148950

Do you trade in similair fashion to him? his results are incredible. A real decent guy too.

Cool runnings - pretty good thread, seems to be a real decent guy
with very good discipline. results like that are common in g/y once
they find a successful strategy. i've seen similar results for greg
in his thread "my gbpjpy trade journal".

Have been researching the current strategy i am using with older
dates and found an incredible 90% hit ratio for march 2009 and
85% for both jan, feb. included are the results for march which
i put into an excel spreadsheet. yeah! wouldn't have the luxury
of seeing into possible future in real trade setups. still with
~90% hit ratio, that should be easily absorbed....

the way these trades are setup are rather simple. first a trend
is found after chart study, daily charts, past trends for european, early north
american session which leaves out major chunks of the day untraded.
that is ok since, the trend is everything in this business, might as well
get it right. then input trades with good mm once the slow stochastics
dip below 30-35% counter-trend. usually i split my entries to 3-4 inputs
separated 20-25 pips apart adding up close to 1 atr so that
they cost average if indeed the market couter-trends deeply.

once the momentum turns back w/ the trend, i add a stop at the pivot
and exits at pivot+1.5atr. (done ) - too bad if the trade whips back
and hits the stop. Funny thing is about 90% of the time i checked
this doesn't happen and the late north american and asian trend
just follows the existing trend (as described above). even checked
one month last year - september '08 - got similar results after checking
out a few weeks.


Oh! and one other thing, if a news event hits and counter trends the market, need to make another
entry to cost average it further. needless to say, stops to be place after all the
news hits or just enter the whole trade after the news event.