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  • #61
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:16am Dec 10, 2008 4:16am
Hi Takisd,

I know it really means very little but just for the record, BillyRayValentine was also trading 1hr charts and getting I think about 15 or 20 trades a day with about the 90% success rate. I'll see how your thread/trading goes but I pressume at this stage it is very similar if not the same, which is good.

Hope you keep at it.
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #62
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:23am Dec 10, 2008 4:23am
Quoting juicyt
Hi Takisd,

I know it really means very little but just for the record, BillyRayValentine was also trading 1hr charts and getting I think about 15 or 20 trades a day with about the 90% success rate. I'll see how your thread/trading goes but I pressume at this stage it is very similar if not the same, which is good.

Hope you keep at it.

90% is damn good. One day I might get up there, im over 80%, its changing though, am getting alot more accurate. Which is good especially since the economic crisis has come along.
  • #63
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:38am Dec 10, 2008 4:38am
Don't quote me on those figures, my memory isn't that great some times. Your stats are good so I hope you keep posting.
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #64
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:13am Dec 10, 2008 5:13am
I shorted a/u again. Seems a breakout is coming.
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  • #65
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:53am Dec 10, 2008 5:53am
Takisd...

Ayone that is getting 80% or near that......outstanding. Something is no doubt working for you. I'm under that 80%, but the winners are large & I keep the losers very small. That is why if it works I leave it a lone.

I am throughly enjoying your to the point post. Refreshing.
Simple is the hardest thing in life to get a grip on, & in trading it seems extremely hard. I took me many yrs to see the light.

arcus......severals yrs ago I used the Bill Williams Profitunity (Chaos) & had fair success with it, but for some reason moved on still chasing bells & whistles. The 200 SMA is too slow & as Takisa said it loses 1/2 of the move
unless its a strong move. In the end Price Is King. I know a trader that uses the EMA's 9, 50, 100 & 200 & he is doing well managing 2-3M of his family's money. He must have 10 pages + of how he does its & when Price does this @ this line & so on & so on. Just to cumbersome for me, but it works for him for 10 yrs now.

Its all about Price & how you learn to trade it. Find your edge, refine it if needed & stick to it. It is working for me, but there are still losing trades along the way.....just smaller ones.

Last, but least......follow only threads like this that are posted buy someone who shoots straight & knows what he is doing obviously.

A Great Day To All.
_________________________________
  • #66
  • Dec 10, 2008 8:55am Dec 10, 2008 8:55am
Takisd......
I am glad I continued reading this thread, at the beginning I was ready to shitcan it due to the sniveling but now it appears to be gaining some insights and integrity.
Keep up the good work..
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #67
  • Dec 10, 2008 12:43pm Dec 10, 2008 12:43pm
Takisd,

Greetings from America. I appreciate your cander and thoughtful insights. For small traders, as most of us are, trading is certainly more art than science. I ask this question from time to time, when I come across an intelligent and thoughtful poster. So here goes:

1. I have been trading for a long time, with periods of great success and others of great failure. I have made and lost 2 or 3 small fortunes.

2. I agree with your trading style...follow the money. It is the only way for us non-market makers to have some wins.

3. Now my question---How do you account for PLAIN BAD LUCK. No matter how careful I trade, every 3 or 4 years I run into an incredible bad patch. When a breakout happens it will ultimaley go my way, but not before it quickly retraces 50 pips to stop me out first. Not just one time, but time after time. I hit one bad patch 2 years ago when I had 17 losers in a row. I carefully planned each trade and waited for a target price, and then watched my generous stop loss be taken out 17 times in a row. I went 6 for 53 over that 2 weeks...did not totally blow the account, but 1 small fortune gone.

How long have you been trading? Have you ever encounterd dry spells like this? I find it is very easy to make money in forex---but very hard to keep it over the long term. You have a Win % of 80%, which is incredible! You should be very proud. However, drawing from a bag of marbles with 8 blue and 2 red, if you draw enoungh times you will hit a stretch of many multiple reds, it is a statistical certainty. Any insight you could give would be greatly appreciated.
  • #68
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:02pm Dec 10, 2008 2:02pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Takisd,

Greetings from America. I appreciate your cander and thoughtful insights. For small traders, as most of us are, trading is certainly more art than science. I ask this question from time to time, when I come across an intelligent and thoughtful poster. So here goes:

1. I have been trading for a long time, with periods of great success and others of great failure. I have made and lost 2 or 3 small fortunes.

2. I agree with your trading style...follow the money. It is the only way for us non-market makers to have some wins.

3. Now my...
Theres always a bad month of the year, I wont deny that.
I understand completely where you are coming from, and the result comes down to psychology. You shouldn't really be making strings of losses if you are still trading the price action. I'd say the strings of losses are to do with you feeling the need to come back. I try not to keep strong detail of my bad periods, but I'd say I've hit a period of 8 consecutive losses, when that happens, I go to sleep. Get some rest, do what I enjoy, then come back. Its like therapy really, gets your mind off it for a bit, and you can come back a bit fresh. Of course the eery losing feeling will remain there, but it wont be as strong.


Just to let people know I was stopped out on the a/u over night, wasn't here to check the price action, I probably would have reviewed it before it stopped if I wasn't asleep.-48 pips. The nights total was 362 pips.
  • #69
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:03pm Dec 10, 2008 2:03pm
Quoting johnedoe
Takisd......
I am glad I continued reading this thread, at the beginning I was ready to shitcan it due to the sniveling but now it appears to be gaining some insights and integrity.
Keep up the good work..
There was no snivelling. Just frustration.
  • #70
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:40pm Dec 10, 2008 2:40pm
Thank you for starting this thread - a really refreshing and simple explanation of the way you trade the market

Just looking at Petra's comment about 'dry spells' - yes we all have them and yes I'm sure we have moments of doubting our own ability.

I now have a rule that if I am ever 2% down in a day I just do not trade again until the following day. Of course, the best move of the day then happens and you are not in it but that's just life LOL.

Just happened to me on GBPJPY. Been trying to short it all afternoon and the moment I decide to stop trading for the day it drops 200 pips. Oh well, always tomorrow

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #71
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:47pm Dec 10, 2008 4:47pm
Takisd, I'm just wondering what your risk/reward ratio is, generally.

Do you have a defined stop amount, IE ~50 pips, or do you look for opposite support/resistance and plan your stop and profit from there?

Thanks again,
B
  • #72
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:15pm Dec 10, 2008 5:15pm
Quoting b-rock
Takisd, I'm just wondering what your risk/reward ratio is, generally.

Do you have a defined stop amount, IE ~50 pips, or do you look for opposite support/resistance and plan your stop and profit from there?

Thanks again,
B
Stops are like an emergency break on a dragster. There is no predefined level, just a place where if it goes there, it will continue further.

My r:r ratio, depends on the price action. If I hit my tp, its usually 1:1.5-4

I try to make sure my TP is larger than my stop. But I use them both only as guides, you will find my losses I get out earlier and my profits I sometimes get out earlier. They are just Emergency type things, knowing that you will only lose X if all goes wrong.
  • #73
  • Dec 10, 2008 6:07pm Dec 10, 2008 6:07pm
I have a question about support/resistance...I feel i can find the sup/res points/areas on a chart fairly well but I am not quite sure how to trade them...I have heard some traders place their orders at the sup/res area in advance looking for the reversal to occur...some trade the breaks of sup/res...and some wait for confrimation that the sup/res point has held.

Using price action only, what is the best way to trade the sup/res?

Thanks for this thread...i really want to learn price action only...( although you can still see me lurking on other threads using indicators...old habits die hard, unfortunately)
  • #74
  • Dec 10, 2008 6:28pm Dec 10, 2008 6:28pm
Quoting steviet
I now have a rule that if I am ever 2% down in a day I just do not trade again until the following day. Of course, the best move of the day then happens and you are not in it but that's just life LOL.

Just happened to me on GBPJPY. Been trying to short it all afternoon and the moment I decide to stop trading for the day it drops 200 pips. Oh well, always tomorrow
Rules such as yours are quite strange. The idea is the successful trades should overcome the bad ones but losses always are implied… just asking man. I’ve lost but I recover with predetermined strategies (not as “fou”).
I guess it has worked for you
  • #75
  • Dec 10, 2008 6:29pm Dec 10, 2008 6:29pm
Quoting RickW00716
I have a question about support/resistance...I feel i can find the sup/res points/areas on a chart fairly well but I am not quite sure how to trade them...I have heard some traders place their orders at the sup/res area in advance looking for the reversal to occur...some trade the breaks of sup/res...and some wait for confrimation that the sup/res point has held.

Using price action only, what is the best way to trade the sup/res?

Thanks for this thread...i really want to learn price action only...( although you can still see me lurking on other...
If you set a limit at the support/res then you are going to feel great pain.

You have to be able to read the reaction to the support/res. So basically, you are looking for a failure... or a break. Look how solid the price movement is when approaching. The market pattern, as well as any future res/support.

There is no point trading a break if its just going to run into more market res/support. So you are looking for better probability, so less res/support on a break, more res/support in a reversal. If you draw the market res on the aud/usd today, you will see there are like 4 levels all within 60 pips. So shorting is a better option, as there is more room to breath on the downside. At least thats what it was like last time i checked my charts
  • #76
  • Dec 10, 2008 6:57pm Dec 10, 2008 6:57pm
Quoting Takisd
If you set a limit at the support/res then you are going to feel great pain.

You have to be able to read the reaction to the support/res. So basically, you are looking for a failure... or a break. Look how solid the price movement is when approaching. The market pattern, as well as any future res/support.

There is no point trading a break if its just going to run into more market res/support. So you are looking for better probability, so less res/support on a break, more res/support in a reversal. If you draw the market res on the aud/usd...
Would you wait to short if the price reaches the latest resistance on the 1hr chart?
  • #77
  • Dec 10, 2008 7:17pm Dec 10, 2008 7:17pm
Quoting RickW00716
Would you wait to short if the price reaches the latest resistance on the 1hr chart?
Depends on the price action. As I havent got my charts up (am on my tablet at a cafe) I couldnt tell you exactly. If the price action shows the current resitance to be strong enough, I would use it. Rather then waiting for it to be too late.
  • #78
  • Dec 10, 2008 7:31pm Dec 10, 2008 7:31pm
Taskid your simple method is something that I can associate with. When it comes to having similar observations though...the way the mind interprets things is the main difference. Therefore I have this question for you, to see your interpretation. You said you dont have charts up so heres the current scenario. Eur/Usd...earlier today (yesterday your timezone probably) we reached 1.3075 which marks a double top with a previous high from November 25. Clearly there is strong resistance at that level. Afterwards eur/usd retreated today and is currently in a 25 pip range in between 1.3000 and 1.3025...it has been ranging here for hours now. Here is where interpretation of the mind kicks in...do you have an opinion now or inclination towards direction..whether short or long and if so why OR do you wait for a break of this 25pip range..possibly a decisive break of 1.3000 to the downside again or 1.3080 to the upside?
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #79
  • Dec 10, 2008 7:50pm Dec 10, 2008 7:50pm
Quoting psiholog
Taskid your simple method is something that I can associate with. When it comes to having similar observations though...the way the mind interprets things is the main difference. Therefore I have this question for you, to see your interpretation. You said you dont have charts up so heres the current scenario. Eur/Usd...earlier today (yesterday your timezone probably) we reached 1.3075 which marks a double top with a previous high from November 25. Clearly there is strong resistance at that level. Afterwards eur/usd retreated today and is currently...
I just drew up a chart on the fxstreet charts for this question.

I am looking at alot of support there for the eur. However this support would have to break the long term trend so its a bit dangerous.

Personally I would be longing any down move that shows a support, and getting out ASAP making sure I am not part of a major reversal if it happens.

The other option would be to go for gold on a failure on the upside and short for a decent support level below, hoping there was a break. I am considering a break on the aud at the moment to the downside, so the euro may follow.

Lets see what happens.

(I only trade AUD pairs here in aus during my work hours, so its tough for me to look at euro/usd).
  • #80
  • Dec 10, 2008 7:55pm Dec 10, 2008 7:55pm
Quoting Takisd
I just drew up a chart on the fxstreet charts for this question.

I am looking at alot of support there for the eur. However this support would have to break the long term trend so its a bit dangerous.

Personally I would be longing any down move that shows a support, and getting out ASAP making sure I am not part of a major reversal if it happens.

The other option would be to go for gold on a failure on the upside and short for a decent support level below, hoping there was a break. I am considering a break on the aud at the moment to the downside,...
i see how you do it now. in an uptrend..whenever a resistance gets broken and retracement occurs to make sure the resistance has become support you buy and vice versa to the downside. Stop loss just in case reversal comes into the picture at a designated level. In short..you check bias at the door...thank you
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
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