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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #146,801
  • Dec 6, 2008 12:14pm Dec 6, 2008 12:14pm
Hi Dr G
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #146,802
  • Dec 6, 2008 6:32pm Dec 6, 2008 6:32pm
i have come across some of piters' posts on my thread back on 11/23... he was emphasizing the point on how GU respects broken TLs. here's a link

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=129810&page=4

GU has the same candlestick continuation pattern as GJ (in weekly chart on the previous post)... and i believe we need a weekly 100% retracement. which means GU has a rendezvous with 1.36 sometime in the coming week(s). that's a 1000 pip drop. and again, the daily bullish divergence on cci and MACD were both broken.
  • #146,803
  • Dec 6, 2008 7:49pm Dec 6, 2008 7:49pm
Looks like everyone showing DOWN DOWN DOWN .

Good Luck.
  • #146,804
  • Dec 6, 2008 8:29pm Dec 6, 2008 8:29pm
I think we hit 140 and maybe even 142.77 before the move down

Yes the move up Friday looks very impulsive in both the GJ and the indexes. But with the auto makers news still on the table the pros will use that to their advantage to push the market higher in the 1st few days of this week.

I have attached an 8 hr char ... there is still a bullish div ... price lower and rsi did not even touch the low of Oct 26th . Also there is a double pin bar on the GU daily with MASSIVE bullish div on RSI , the dollar index is also having an issue breaking 88 still ....till this happens the GU may be in limbo

The candle that we ended on was a low volume up candle , BUT seems to be forming some kind of piercing / engulfing candle.

Based on what i see right now I think we get move back to 140 for sure and maybe even 142.77 before next leg down.

There is no reason for market to drop 1000 points Monday unless they cancel the auto bail out altogether.

The big drop in the markets may come after the bail out news.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy136.png Size: 192 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #146,805
  • Dec 6, 2008 8:47pm Dec 6, 2008 8:47pm
mark.
  • #146,806
  • Dec 6, 2008 8:53pm Dec 6, 2008 8:53pm
I have found most charts other than a 12 hr on longer term time frame hard to analyze

12 hr chart clearly shows a pin but with major buying off 133.33 ... nothing odd about the volume

I guess for now 135 is key , above this we head to 140 and maybe 142.77
Below this we test 133.33 and may be 130

The market may go to 141 / 142.77 dec 9th to 12th , then a new 1-2-3 sell formation with fes will give downside of 127.43

Obviously there is still a lot of bearish sentiment in here , but we have to think what is going to drive the markets down at this point ?

worst nfp in 33 years we go up ....
auto bail out bill on table still .. market may take that as positive perception till it is passed
pros love to use this BS news to drive market higher under low volume so they can sell it under high volume .
GBP interest rates passed ... now more likely focus will switch back on to USD

Once the Auto news is out of the way and if there is any positive perception based on that the pros will only use it to their advantage to drive dj into 9000 . Once this item is out of the way then market will get back to heading down towards 7500 and lower on DJ

ALSO NOTE THE CLASS C BULLISH DIVERGENCE .... price has formed lower low but indicator is same as lows of Nov 11

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy139.png Size: 175 KB
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  • #146,807
  • Dec 6, 2008 9:00pm Dec 6, 2008 9:00pm
here is GU chart ... 12 hours

1) major bullish div rsi
2) double bottom
3) interest rates out of way....now what is going to drive this lower... look to DX for strength of usd

There are only 2 things that will drive GJ lower here

1) break of 1.4500 with a close on 4 hr below this level
2) complete market melt down and UJ closing under 92

we have to remember that last week move down was driven by the market makers messing with GU and the presumption that the GBP interest rates were going to be 150 bps cut. This maybe where they want price for buying .... ever thought of that

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy141.png Size: 157 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #146,808
  • Dec 6, 2008 9:42pm Dec 6, 2008 9:42pm
ha, ha, ha
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #146,809
  • Dec 6, 2008 9:54pm Dec 6, 2008 9:54pm
looks like we are back inside the minor channel though....
i might be seeing what i want to see....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy_h4_12_06_08.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #146,810
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:13pm Dec 6, 2008 10:13pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Obviously there is still a lot of bearish sentiment in here , but we have to think what is going to drive the markets down at this point ?

worst nfp in 33 years we go up ....


Attachment
good note. and here's the funny part malcomb:

you probably seen my charts and how much i mentioned october 3rd as a history repeating itself. guess what! october 3rd was a friday, and NFP was released at that time to set a new record low (at that time), markets RALLIED not only after getting the worst data since, but also AFTER the 700 billion bailout plan was PASSED at the very same date; bad followed by good.

now what did we get the past friday (2 days ago)? another even worse NFP, and that auto bail out plan... what difference would that make? wasn't the 700 billion bailout plan supposed to rally markets even higher? guess what, it rallied 400 pips just before it PLUNGED.

so you tell me, why would the auto bailout plan be BETTER than the 700 billion bailout plan?!?!

think about it for a second:

1) same ranging period before the drop, followed by undecided daily candles.
2) same price action on october 3rd
3) same indicator patterns
4) same rally before a drop...
5) same news data and releases, and similar bailout plans

100% history repeating itself.


here's another funny part. on october 3rd, president bush was speaking, and somewhere in that speach he said his reporter favorite statement:
"fool me once, shame on you. but fool me twice then shame on me!", i can't believe i'm qouting the guy, but this HAS to be interesting
  • #146,811
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:13pm Dec 6, 2008 10:13pm
Quoting malcolmb14
here is GU chart ... 12 hours

1) major bullish div rsi
2) double bottom
3) interest rates out of way....now what is going to drive this lower... look to DX for strength of usd

There are only 2 things that will drive GJ lower here

1) break of 1.4500 with a close on 4 hr below this level
2) complete market melt down and UJ closing under 92

we have to remember that last week move down was driven by the market makers messing with GU and the presumption that the GBP interest rates were going to be 150 bps cut. This maybe where they want price...
I looked at FXCM SSI position indicator suggesting a big drop in EU and GU in the coming day(s) .. let's see ..
  • #146,812
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:39pm Dec 6, 2008 10:39pm
Quoting lilmoe
good note. and here's the funny part malcomb:

you probably seen my charts and how much i mentioned october 3rd as a history repeating itself. guess what! october 3rd was a friday, and NFP was released at that time to set a new record low (at that time), markets RALLIED not only after getting the worst data since, but also AFTER the 700 billion bailout plan was PASSED at the very same date; bad followed by good.

now what did we get the past friday (2 days ago)? another even worse NFP, and that auto bail out plan... what difference would that...
you and malcomb will more than likely be right. i've been looking at the charts and can see geppy going to 138 to 140 between tomorrow evening and monday morning if this countertrend rally has legs.

at some point, it stalls around 138 to 140 and probably tanks. keep in mind that the us treasury is going to be hitting the market next week with debt auctions if i'm not mistaken. whenever the treasury borrows, that's usually bad for ym, especially if the us fed doesn't step up with it's daily operations.

gonna be an interesting week.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #146,813
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:51pm Dec 6, 2008 10:51pm
Quoting lilmoe
good note. and here's the funny part malcomb:

you probably seen my charts and how much i mentioned october 3rd as a history repeating itself. guess what! october 3rd was a friday, and NFP was released at that time to set a new record low (at that time), markets RALLIED not only after getting the worst data since, but also AFTER the 700 billion bailout plan was PASSED at the very same date; bad followed by good.

now what did we get the past friday (2 days ago)? another even worse NFP, and that auto bail out plan... what difference would that make?...


good points .. i was talking to Matt before the nfp came out and suggested they do the same thing as they did last month ..... bad nfp and up we go

it will be easy GU breaks 1.4500 on 1 4hr ... short the hell out of it....

but pros who are not already short will not likely get in at these lows levels....and from one that loves divergences we have a bullish on the 12 hr gj and bullish daily / 12 hr

should prove to be an interesting week , I am not going to overthink things. . just trade each day using the rsi system
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #146,814
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:03pm Dec 6, 2008 11:03pm
Quoting malcolmb14
good points .. i was talking to Matt before the nfp came out and suggested they do the same thing as they did last month ..... bad nfp and up we go

it will be easy GU breaks 1.4500 on 1 4hr ... short the hell out of it....

but pros who are not already short will not likely get in at these lows levels....and from one that loves divergences we have a bullish on the 12 hr gj and bullish daily / 12 hr

should prove to be an interesting week , I am not going to overthink things. . just trade each day using the rsi system

of note early next week is some big news items for GBP ..... if these are as expected ( the UK is known to be in a bad recession) we may see that double bottom in the gbp forming some good support

also of note is the fact that most investment funds will be closing some short positions for tax gains before xmas , likely holding the market up above 8000 for the mean time.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #146,815
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:42pm Dec 6, 2008 11:42pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the true purpose of the bailout:

http://www.republicbroadcasting.org/...eo&videoID=169
Even though the man in the video is telling more truth than he probably should, while watching, I remembered something:

Every now and then I'll have a few drinks and argue to the mirror over some point of fact until I feel confident that
I have over-whelmingly convinced the mirror that my position is the most correct one.

From now on, I think I should argue to my webcam while recording and see if my arguments are as compelling.

The opinion maker in this video was somewhat too sober. I would have been more convinced if I'd seen a bottle of Jack on the table
and a few more slurred words being imparted. Buy the man a drink.
  • #146,816
  • Dec 7, 2008 12:58am Dec 7, 2008 12:58am
There are many predictions as to the next movement . I think the fair chance to reach 140 before the bottom again & down further.

cllassic bullish diversion in H4 active though 50ma at 142 but bollinger band showing 140 now .fast stoch strikingly up and slow one still down.

H1 showed Bullish diversion & still active too. slow stoch wide open up , have all supports & crossed 50ma .

The last impulse wave seems finishing wave iii and to have v want still to about 138.70 minimum .
Expected range 138.70 to 142 .
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #146,817
  • Dec 7, 2008 1:47am Dec 7, 2008 1:47am
Another point worth noting when considering a December retracement. Stocks' latest rally may trip on harsh data: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081205/busin...look.html?.v=1

I might be horribly wrong, but I think risk will return rapidly next week, if not over the week end; (see President Bush's admissions vis a vis US recession and US auto industry). If so we'll see Friday's gains erased with stocks down sharply on Monday; and bad data and deepening fears regarding global recession sending investors back to the USD and Japanese Yen.

Hence, I think Asia will sell the high on the GBPJPY pair and other's on Sunday night, EST like they did last week and FX markets will open lower, and continue down. We may even see a new low by weeks end? So, I'm staying short. Will sell the highs, but with close stop losses and small volume, at least until we know with some certainty whether this retracement is the December blip returned or the result of more irrational buying in US stocks following a hectic week of big news releases and high volitility).
[
  • #146,818
  • Dec 7, 2008 2:15am Dec 7, 2008 2:15am
The Japanese Yen could reverse recent gains next week as seasonal capital flows create the perception of a boost to risk appetite. Last week, we suggested that stock markets may rise in December as traders prepare for the end of calendar year.Investors often intentionally close some positions at a loss in December to offset the capital gains tax burden. This then pushes shares higher through January as positions are re-established (a phenomenon called the “January effect”). Considering the massive drop in share prices this year, the only traders with any meaningful gains to be taxed were positioned short. Closing out some of this exposure will mean buying back shorted stock and thereby pushing markets higher. Considering the Yen remains 96% inversely correlated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 95% inversely correlated with the broader MSCI World Stock Index, the currency will suffer loses should this materialize. Initial signs that stocks are being buoyed by seasonal factors have slowly started to emerge: shares closed Friday’s New York session with a gain of 3% despite news that the economy lost 533k jobs in November, the worst reading in 34 years, sending the Yen lower against nearly every other major currency.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currenc...536378335.html



Dollar Strengthened in January 2007, Will This be Repeated in 2008?

Look at the charts:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...168068166.html
[
  • #146,819
  • Dec 7, 2008 2:44am Dec 7, 2008 2:44am
Quoting toshi
Even though the man in the video is telling more truth than he probably should, while watching, I remembered something:

Every now and then I'll have a few drinks and argue to the mirror over some point of fact until I feel confident that
I have over-whelmingly convinced the mirror that my position is the most correct one.

From now on, I think I should argue to my webcam while recording and see if my arguments are as compelling.

The opinion maker in this video was somewhat too sober. I would have been more convinced if I'd seen a bottle of...
  • #146,820
  • Dec 7, 2008 3:42am Dec 7, 2008 3:42am
Hi all

Is anyone aware of any of the gbpjpy traders on forexfactory thread providing trades on zulutrade.com?

Balaji
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