Attachments: Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

#146,461
Dec 5, 2008 6:15am Dec 5, 2008 6:15am

Pip Dream
| Joined Jan 2008 | Status: London - UK | 80 Posts

Quoting Geldmeister

Disliked

WHY??? worse than expected news will send UJ down. GU may spike up first but then retreat again since stocks will plummets and risk aversion kick in, so GY tank is the likely scenario in this case.

If news is in line with expectations no idea what will happen

If better, than UJ will up, but GU may go down, which could mean GY goes nowhere

But then nobody knows for sure, especially on NFP Friday

Ignored

Mmm..point taken. I agree UJ will go down. From my experience a weak NFP reading weighs on the USD and that's why I think it'll send this pair up but perhaps the risk aversion will be the over riding factor so I'll keep it in mind. Thanks!

#146,462
Dec 5, 2008 6:29am Dec 5, 2008 6:29am

ut2DaMax
| Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 592 Posts

& we know also that cars can run on water.That has been proven. Why do the car makers not switch over, and why does the Gov. now want to help them out of their money crisis. It all ties in together. You scratch my back & I will scratch yours. I know my post here will not make any sense unless u know what is going on and what is the reason OIL will always control the economy of this Country & the World. Henry Kissinger made a deal with all oil producing Countries except Iran and Iraq at the time. That they would back the Dollar and we will make them Sheiks and loaded with cash! And guess how the IMF fits into all of this? If you understand how they profit from higher OIL prices, you will understand what will bring the US into a 1929 style depression & worse. Yes it is coming. Oh there is enough Oil in Alaska to supply our needs for the next 200 years, but because of the agreement made, we cannot use these new wells. And remember OIL Prices will bring on 1929. Oil controls everything and it is not the Oil companies nor is it the Arabs that control the Price of Oil. I listed who controls it in this post. The US Gov will never allow them to bring out cars that run on water now, as oil will usher in the coming crash and the New Deal with the Amero/chip as the answer. I do not want this to happen, but it will happen. IMO

Hi everyone This is a very nice thread u have here & I am following it. At this time there is little I can add to it, so I just listen to the DD presented here. I hope u will forgive me for this one unrelated OT post. I will not post again on this subject! Period.

#146,463
Dec 5, 2008 6:34am Dec 5, 2008 6:34am

jaxbeach007
| Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 71 Posts

Quoting Flem26

Disliked

I remember when it was 88 cents in Jacksonville after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. What's the weather like down there these days? Originally from Jax but living in Canada now. It's cold and snowy here today.

Ignored

it's been kinda chilly the past few weeks, but the days are around 70 F right now, beats snow and wind

#146,464
Dec 5, 2008 6:34am Dec 5, 2008 6:34am

AbgZuhaini
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 118 Posts

easy give away.. NFP forecasted weak. move already discounted.

#146,465
Dec 5, 2008 6:38am Dec 5, 2008 6:38am

Gull
| Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 389 Posts

Quoting AbgZuhaini

Disliked

easy give away.. NFP forecasted weak. move already discounted.

Ignored

bulls are bottom picking but as the good doc says someone is selling it.

Timing is everything

#146,466
Dec 5, 2008 6:42am Dec 5, 2008 6:42am

Dr.Geppynius
Joined May 2008 | Status: has long shorts | 2,584 Posts

Quoting AbgZuhaini

Disliked

easy give away.. NFP forecasted weak. move already discounted.

Ignored

lol you have the best advices, like "easy short" without a reasong given, yesterday, when that thing was bought.

see that pic

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1228464701

s&p from monday on. just pay attention to the yellow lines i placed. every day except monday WAS heavy selloff into the closing upbars. big money is heavily net short on indexes. so where'S the sense in ripping up? it only makes sense to drop the markets ans let everybody join the bear party to let their positions, which they began to collect on monday, turn green. see the 847 area...no coincidence that we closed there yesterday after reloading shorts at the top.

just bear that in mind. nfp could well be -400k.

i have nothing to lose, except the kebabs

#146,467
Dec 5, 2008 6:55am Dec 5, 2008 6:55am

ak4x
Joined Aug 2007 | Status: TARFU... | 7,015 Posts

i have collected nearly 100 pips each on a single eu and ej trade (200 total)since last nite while geppy has barely moved until the last few minutes.. haven't seen that in ages. any thoughts on why it's been so slow to move??

FUBAR...

#146,468
Dec 5, 2008 6:56am Dec 5, 2008 6:56am

Dr.Geppynius
Joined May 2008 | Status: has long shorts | 2,584 Posts

Quoting ak4x

Disliked

i have collected nearly 100 pips each on a single eu and ej trade (200 total)since last nite while geppy has barely moved until the last few minutes.. haven't seen that in ages. any thoughts on why it's been so slow to move??

Ignored

pump & dump

just some collectors at work, just the silence before they let the beast go.
you'll see some major moves later on.

#146,469
Dec 5, 2008 6:56am Dec 5, 2008 6:56am

rgitt05
Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts

Excellent analysis!!! The bias is still bearish but I think the market is waiting on the bailout decision Monday before making a new low...The future are not dropping drastically so I feel the GJ PA will be limited today...Today, the big 3 CEO's will again talk in congress...More drama more choppy market..

Good Luck...

Quoting Dr.Geppynius

Disliked

lol you have the best advices, like "easy short" without a reasong given, yesterday, when that thing was bought.

see that pic

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1228464701

s&p from monday on. just pay attention to the yellow lines i placed. every day except monday WAS heavy selloff into the closing upbars. big money is heavily net short on indexes. so where'S the sense in ripping up? it only makes sense to drop the markets ans let everybody join the bear party to let their positions, which they...

Ignored

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#146,470
Dec 5, 2008 7:00am Dec 5, 2008 7:00am

Dr.Geppynius
Joined May 2008 | Status: has long shorts | 2,584 Posts

Quoting rgitt05

Disliked

Excellent analysis!!! The bias is still bearish but I think the market is waiting on the bailout decision Monday before making a new low...The future are not dropping drastically so I feel the GJ PA will be limited today...Today, the big 3 CEO's will again talk in congress...More drama more choppy market..

Good Luck...

Ignored

i agree. the only unsure variable is, if it will be a shiny friday today with little upmoves so everybody has a lovely weekend to be shocked on monday..or not

fact is, there are tons of shorts from the last week and asap as everybody's bias has turned away from bottompicking futures are in meltdown mode to be bought lower again.

#146,471
Dec 5, 2008 7:04am Dec 5, 2008 7:04am

rgitt05
Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts

I guess we will see the GAP this weekend if any clue about the decision is leaked out...

Quoting Dr.Geppynius

Disliked

i agree. the only unsure variable is, if it will be a shiny friday today with little upmoves so everybody has a lovely weekend to be shocked on monday..or not

fact is, there are tons of shorts from the last week and asap as everybody's bias has turned away from bottompicking futures are in meltdown mode to be bought lower again.

Ignored

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#146,472
Dec 5, 2008 7:07am Dec 5, 2008 7:07am

forexlion
| Additional Username | Joined Sep 2009 | 8,623 Posts

131.60 coming up with the NFP news.

#146,473
Dec 5, 2008 7:08am Dec 5, 2008 7:08am

rgitt05
Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts

US nonfarm payrolls is the big event today and risk... trades have moved lower in anticipation of a weaker than expected print. The official consensus is at -335K but the market looks to be pricing in a more aggressive -400K or so. We would expect a number closer to -500K would see risk trades in both equities and FX come off markedly from current levels. This would mean lower JPY crosses across the board.

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#146,474
Dec 5, 2008 7:14am Dec 5, 2008 7:14am

Islander
Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts

Quoting ak4x

Disliked

i have collected nearly 100 pips each on a single eu and ej trade (200 total)since last nite while geppy has barely moved until the last few minutes.. haven't seen that in ages. any thoughts on why it's been so slow to move??

Ignored

LOL AK - I'm with you - I have my 2nd 'puter all set up to run my EU & EJ trades.......interesting to see that GBP is stronger than EUR so far today...also that its dollar strength via swissy rather the € weakness....

Trading Levels with WRBs

#146,475
Dec 5, 2008 7:25am Dec 5, 2008 7:25am

rgitt05
Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts

USD/JPY has been consolidating in the 92.10-30 area since staging a mild recovery from 91.95 recent lows in early London. Barriers at 92.00 were finally removed, but those at 91.75 and 91.50 provide the next downside targets. Offers at 92.30-35 have been providing a solid lid until now with spec sellers lined up at various stages above to limit current advance. US NFP number expected to be gloomy, with a Reuters poll forcasting -340k. Any worse likely to prompot fresh USD/JPY weakness, with main focus still the huge 90.00 level, which is known to contain some large barrier payout and will be well defended. Recent BoJ rhetoric also suggests any attempt toward/break below, is likely to prompt some sort of official action. PRDC bond markets touted as having massive FX exposure at the 90.00 level, with any break likely to force some sizeable follow through JPY buying from this sector. EUR/JPY: Currently testing in to the upper 116"s (new daily lows) as general EUR weakness continues to weigh on EUR crosses.

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