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100 x 80 EA oh boy

  • #501
  • Dec 3, 2008 10:20am Dec 3, 2008 10:20am
might be an idea to just test the last six month of data, and reoptimise every month, that way you can keep on top of market changes?

Steve.
  • #502
  • Dec 3, 2008 11:46am Dec 3, 2008 11:46am
perhaps when nanningbob has some time, he can shed more light on this? What I'm now doing is using both EAs on one account. I use the 35X20 EA for the AUD/NZD at .10, and the 100X80 on seven other of the safer pairs at .03 each. So far, the AUD/NZD has been a stellar performer. The other pairs have been slow, but also a slight increase in the account, which I don't complain about. If there were more optimal settings on a certain pair, I could simply change the EA settings for that pair.
Quoting Arnold49
might be an idea to just test the last six month of data, and reoptimise every month, that way you can keep on top of market changes?

Steve.
  • #503
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:25pm Dec 3, 2008 6:25pm
Quoting paradoxical
perhaps when nanningbob has some time, he can shed more light on this? What I'm now doing is using both EAs on one account. I use the 35X20 EA for the AUD/NZD at .10, and the 100X80 on seven other of the safer pairs at .03 each. So far, the AUD/NZD has been a stellar performer. The other pairs have been slow, but also a slight increase in the account, which I don't complain about. If there were more optimal settings on a certain pair, I could simply change the EA settings for that pair.
Remember you are testing one at .03 and the other at .10 so the .10 has an advantage. Try both at .03 and the profitability would be much closer.

My philosophy on this is this. An EA needs to cover the possible range of a currency. For instance the Eur/GBP biggest day ever was around 350 points. An EA that can cover 400 points has the odds of never wiping out in theory

The gbp/jpy biggest day is around 1800, however, making a practical EA of 1800 range is not reasonable, unless you have 20,000 or more to play with. So now you do a risk and reward study. If you take my 7 year currency fact sheet, you can see there are only 4 or 5 currencies that will travel over 700 points in one day more than once a year. That leaves you with 15 that you could play with and be reasonably sure your safe with an EA that covers 6-700 pip moves. There are 8 currencies that almost never go over 400 in one day so you can write up an EA for them. The 7 year fact sheet and Frostcall's excel program you can get very good at coming up with settings for an EA and what currencies to use them on.

What I love about this system is brokers and banks cant really defeat it easily. If the ranges on your EA is right they would need a record day to defeat it. The 100x80 and the 35x20 are the same EA and system just the numbers are different. The 35x20 has a range of less than 200 points, the only reason it works is because of the unique bouncing of the AUD/NZD. Its usage with other currencies is limited. The 100x80 can be used with a lot of currencies but the amount of funds to run it is a lot more. Take 5000 dollars, set the 100x80 on dimes and OH BOY. You could make a living on it but the 35x20 is just nice PT income. Since most of us dont have 5000 to lose but 500 is more comfortable we like the 35x20. The 100x80 hmmmmmmmm I am getting tempted to try it if I think I can run it with certain pairs and 2000. I am in my final weeks of testing on a demo with those figures at .05 lots. It would make more than the 35x20.
  • #504
  • Dec 3, 2008 7:43pm Dec 3, 2008 7:43pm
That was a GREAT explanation of your EA and philosophy, and the time you tool to explain is greatly appreciated. Someone with a large enough account could make a great income using the either of these EAs. I'm not rich, but I have bee3n thinking of exactly what you were saying....going .10 on several pairs or more. Right now, am going .03, and on a live account, and want to see what happens. VERRRRYYY slow day today. But, I've seen when it heats up what just .03 can do. And, i know that going a "dime" makes it exponentially more, so I won't go there until I see more. It's real easy to increase in stages. I can go .04, then .05, etc. The EA is great!
Quoting nanningbob
Remember you are testing one at .03 and the other at .10 so the .10 has an advantage. Try both at .03 and the profitability would be much closer.

My philosophy on this is this. An EA needs to cover the possible range of a currency. For instance the Eur/GBP biggest day ever was around 350 points. An EA that can cover 400 points has the odds of never wiping out in theory

The gbp/jpy biggest day is around 1800, however, making a practical EA of 1800 range is not reasonable, unless you have 20,000 or more to play with. So now you do a risk...
  • #505
  • Dec 3, 2008 7:51pm Dec 3, 2008 7:51pm
Quoting paradoxical
That was a GREAT explanation of your EA and philosophy, and the time you tool to explain is greatly appreciated. Someone with a large enough account could make a great income using the either of these EAs. I'm not rich, but I have bee3n thinking of exactly what you were saying....going .10 on several pairs or more. Right now, am going .03, and on a live account, and want to see what happens. VERRRRYYY slow day today. But, I've seen when it heats up what just .03 can do. And, i know that going a "dime" makes it exponentially more, so I won't go...
Thanks, I am doing very well for the contest. I think when the first results come out I should be in the top 10. My other live account is doing well also and I exspect to take another 3-500 check depending how I do in the next two days.
  • #506
  • Dec 3, 2008 8:08pm Dec 3, 2008 8:08pm
I hope you WIN the contest! In thinking of what you posted, I was stopped on the EUR/GBP when I used it on the 35X20 EA with a 200 pip stop, when a few days ago, it went 291 pips with hardly any retrace. If someone really wants to optimize an EA for each pair, they would have to set a stop on this pair of about 400. On the other pairs, it would be something higher than say maybe the last several highs. Certainly no expert on this system, but the higher the stop you set, the more risk entailed on each pair, because getting stopped at such high levels would be a killer. So, perhaps using an average like you do, such as 100X80 kind of evens things out. I suppose if someone wanted to REALLY get down to the nitty gritty, maybe 109X76 might be the optimum? (Just kidding!)
Quoting nanningbob
Thanks, I am doing very well for the contest. I think when the first results come out I should be in the top 10. My other live account is doing well also and I exspect to take another 3-500 check depending how I do in the next two days.
  • #507
  • Dec 3, 2008 8:38pm Dec 3, 2008 8:38pm
I should proofread my posts before submitting them. I meant to say that for each pair, you'd have to set separate stops, and your stop of 800 as an average is probably a very good stop on "most" pairs as an average.
  • #508
  • Dec 3, 2008 9:18pm Dec 3, 2008 9:18pm
Quoting paradoxical
I hope you WIN the contest! In thinking of what you posted, I was stopped on the EUR/GBP when I used it on the 35X20 EA with a 200 pip stop, when a few days ago, it went 291 pips with hardly any retrace. If someone really wants to optimize an EA for each pair, they would have to set a stop on this pair of about 400. On the other pairs, it would be something higher than say maybe the last several highs. Certainly no expert on this system, but the higher the stop you set, the more risk entailed on each pair, because getting stopped at such high levels...
I enjoyed reading that, stop losses in my system are only for account salvage. We hope that the SL never gets hit but we know that occasionally that will happen. In reality you want to step in and end a bad long before that or close out everyday and not face the death trade or stop loss. I try to find a retracement that minimizes my losses and get out rather than wait for a stop loss. Once you get the feel or knowledge of when to close out a bad trade that is when these EAs really become profitable. That takes some time to learn however.
  • #509
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:37am Dec 4, 2008 3:37am
Quoting nanningbob
Remember you are testing one at .03 and the other at .10 so the .10 has an advantage. Try both at .03 and the profitability would be much closer.

My philosophy on this is this. An EA needs to cover the possible range of a currency. For instance the Eur/GBP biggest day ever was around 350 points. An EA that can cover 400 points has the odds of never wiping out in theory

The gbp/jpy biggest day is around 1800, however, making a practical EA of 1800 range is not reasonable, unless you have 20,000 or more to play with. So now you do a risk...
Hi Nanningbob,

I notice you mention the largest daily range for a currency being 800 pips(for example) over a 7 year period. What happens if the currency continues in the same direction the next day without a pull back? When a currency has one of these big days wouldn't you have to look at the next day to see just how far it went.

And regarding the size of the pullback. If the orders are 80 pips apart with a 100 take profit its possible that with a pull back of 170 pips still no take profit would be achieved, it just depends where the pull back starts relative to your last order. If the price was 75 pips below your last buy and then started to retrace it would have to go 175 pips to take profit, I think a lot of people don't realise this.

Regardless I am checking your posts everyday and running my own demo, thanks very much!
  • #510
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:14pm Dec 4, 2008 5:14pm
Quoting waltini1
Hi Nanningbob,

I notice you mention the largest daily range for a currency being 800 pips(for example) over a 7 year period. What happens if the currency continues in the same direction the next day without a pull back? When a currency has one of these big days wouldn't you have to look at the next day to see just how far it went.

And regarding the size of the pullback. If the orders are 80 pips apart with a 100 take profit its possible that with a pull back of 170 pips still no take profit would be achieved, it just depends where the pull back...
this is true quite often it retraces 100 pips but if your 80 pip renetry wasnt on the very top of the retracement you wont acheive it.... thats why its a semi automatic system so to speak..
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #511
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:25pm Dec 4, 2008 5:25pm
Quoting waltini1
Hi Nanningbob,

I notice you mention the largest daily range for a currency being 800 pips(for example) over a 7 year period....
Yes this is true. I have stated in the past that fact. I have said that some currencies will take several days to reach the death trade. I have recommended several times closing at a profit at the retrace stating some currencies will not do a full retrace. You restart to get the full protection of the EA especially before the USA open.
  • #512
  • Dec 5, 2008 9:08am Dec 5, 2008 9:08am
The 100x80 using it on 17 pairs at .05 lots. Started with 2000 opening balance with no trade going over 5 levels all week. I did close my EA 2 times during the week, thats all the trades at once. I also am experimenting with closing only those currencies level 3 or higher at the USA open so I dont take as big of a deficit bite then. So far that strategy has worked out very well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100x80.gif Size: 5 KB
  • #513
  • Dec 5, 2008 10:10am Dec 5, 2008 10:10am
Many Thanks for this great system, Bob.

I never realised some great system developer showing the magic in this Rookie section. hoho.

I hope that I can contribute something to your system.

My thought is on the exits, if it is a concern.

I'd make such a systematic StopLoss.

Your system assumes "range trading", so we could go back history to find some ranging days, say eurusd in 2006? (i'm at work, can't go into data/history precisely now)...... just a rough thought:

run backtest, then MT4 present an equity chart, the chart should show a stable rising curve (because of your ranging trading), visually measure the increasing balance curve's slope, or carefully calculate the slope [ easy, (delta Profit) / (delta time) ]. This is job 1.

Job 2 is to find during 2008 Sept ~ Nov, these days, how often approximately your EA run into a terrible drawdown or those 'death' days. say roughly, every 5 days (1 week), or every 10 days. let's assume it is 5 days.

then the stoploss works like this: if the equity curve's slope for previous 5 days drops for 50% (the number of 50% needs to be optimized/sensitivity analyzed), then now it is bad for the EA ---- time to stoploss.

I could expect more loss, more smaller drawdown, slower equity increase, but less trader's pain to inspect/mental SixFlag/manually stoploss.

again, I'm still studying your system in early stage. hopefully you are not upset after reading my potentially useless post. I have not read the end of these threads. I am reading posts during Oct/Nov. Maybe you guys already have a very good StopLoss method. so just ignore mine.


Quoting nanningbob
So far that strategy has worked out very well.
  • #514
  • Dec 5, 2008 1:17pm Dec 5, 2008 1:17pm
Quoting nanningbob
The 100x80 using it on 17 pairs at .05 lots. Started with 2000 opening balance with no trade going over 5 levels all week. I did close my EA 2 times during the week, thats all the trades at once. I also am experimenting with closing only those currencies level 3 or higher at the USA open so I dont take as big of a deficit bite then. So far that strategy has worked out very well.
Very nice gain Bob. Thanks again for sharing your work.
  • #515
  • Dec 5, 2008 6:26pm Dec 5, 2008 6:26pm
Quoting charvo
Many Thanks for this great system, Bob.

I never realised some great system developer showing the magic in this Rookie section....
Thank you for your research. I find backtesting of very little value. Since we often close out the EA and restart it and also you never want to run the EA over the weekend (price gaps too much and ruins the reentry) you cant do those type of things with a backtest. So the results you get from backtesting simply are not that accurate. There is no way to know how many people have actually developed good EAs but they throw them out because of backtesting results. They dont realize how inaccurate the information you get back is. To prove my statement look at how many companies sell their EAs because of great back test information but when you put them live they turn out to be dogs. I use back testing to see if my EA works but Frost Calls excel program and my 7 year currency facts will give you a much better idea of how a currency pair will act in an EA than a back test will.
  • #516
  • Dec 6, 2008 3:41am Dec 6, 2008 3:41am
Quoting nanningbob
The 100x80 using it on 17 pairs at .05 lots. Started with 2000 opening balance with no trade going over 5 levels all week. I did close my EA 2 times during the week, thats all the trades at once. I also am experimenting with closing only those currencies level 3 or higher at the USA open so I dont take as big of a deficit bite then. So far that strategy has worked out very well.
Nice graph Bob - Do you know what your biggest DD was?

Last week I ran 100x80 6 safest pairs starting .05 24/5 - made $355 largest DD $310.

I want to go-live with this one, but currently find $300+ DD too much to bear, so this week I ran it 24/5 starting with 0.02 - it made $53 with largest DD $61

I guess some weeks are gonna be big and others small.....just need to find a happy risk threshold.....
Next week I will demo both 17 pairs and 6 pairs, both starting at 0.02 and see what that brings.
He has the right to criticize who has the heart to help. Abraham Lincoln
  • #517
  • Dec 6, 2008 4:49am Dec 6, 2008 4:49am
Quoting Jim4x
Nice graph Bob - Do you know what your biggest DD was?

Last week I ran 100x80 6 safest pairs starting .05 24/5 - made $355 largest DD $310.

I want to go-live with this one, but currently find $300+ DD too much to bear, so this week I ran it 24/5 starting with 0.02 - it made $53 with largest DD $61

I guess some weeks are gonna be big and others small.....just need to find a happy risk threshold.....
Next week I will demo both 17 pairs and 6 pairs, both starting at 0.02 and see what that brings.
To me having enough money to cover a DD is more important to me than the DD. I dont mind DD because the bigger the DD the bigger the profit when the market retraces. What I find important is how many levels deep does it go. If I play an EA that can go 8 levels deep but it never goes there, then I never hit my stop loss. I want to use currencies that dont test the limits of the EA. If I have that, then it is just figuring out how deep can I go with my account and not get into trouble with margin. If I can trade 1000 with .02 lots then that is ideal. If my DD hits 3-400 I know my profits will be good. My whole theory is based that almost all currencies will retrace every single day. The one or two that dont are offset by the profits of the others. Maybe some days I will take a loss but it wont damage my account too severly. You will never have a perfect world but you want to make money, get your original investment out and then the DD doesnt bother me.

The only real problem I see with any of my EAs is that market conditions right now can change drastically and suddenly. All it takes is for Bernanke or Trichet to say something and the market will go bonkers moving 500-1500 pips with some of these currencies. Those two scare me more than anything else that happens in the market.
  • #518
  • Edited 10:17pm Dec 6, 2008 9:58pm | Edited 10:17pm
How can you tell what is a safe currency to trade? Here is a 80 MA with lines + - every 100 pips. If my EA will cover a 600 pip range and from red line to red line is 600 pips then if price stays inside the red lines you are always safe. This is a good way to measure which currencies are safest to trade with the 100x80. You can put this on a 1H chart to see how safe a currency is to trade day by day. You can put it on a 4H chart to see which currencies are safe to trade week by week. In other words which currencies can I turn this on on Monday and never turn the EA off and what currencies do I need to monitor every day and possibly restart the EA during a 24 hour period. IF your DD looks bad you can use this to see if certain currencies are out of range or not. I hope this new tool helps you. Put the template in your templates folder and attach it to any screen pair.I have replaced my sell screen EA with this one. I think it is a better tool than the one I had.

The pick below is the usd sgd which I am adding to my list of tradeable currencies with this system. Notice that this is a 4H chart and the distance from each dotted line is 1W. I could turn this EA on and let it run all week on this pair and it stays inside the red lines.

Also attached is the template. MA 80 blank, no EA is attached to this template. If you want to use it you must drag the EA on and then save it to a new template.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd sgd 4h.gif Size: 22 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 100x80 ma 80 blank.tpl   2 KB | 443 downloads
  • #519
  • Edited 10:18pm Dec 6, 2008 10:08pm | Edited 10:18pm
Here is a pic of the aud/chf. On a 4H chart it is not safe to trade all week with out resetting the EA. If you restart your EA every day you can see the from the 1H chart it will push the EA to its limit. If you wanted to trade this pair you know you have to have a restart sometime during any 24 hour period to keep your account safe. The 4H is first the 1H is second. Hope this improves your trading decisions.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud chf 4h.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud chf 1h.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #520
  • Dec 7, 2008 8:46am Dec 7, 2008 8:46am
Thank you very much, This will indeed help.
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