4H 5EMA System | Page 109 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

TEB 5ema & 12ema and 21 RSI (MTF) 1,730 replies

5EMA hilo system, and EA Idea 18 replies

4H 5EMA System's EA 79 replies

4HR 5EMA Expert Advisor 42 replies

when 5EMA crosses out of 55LWMA channel 0 replies

Attachments: 4H 5EMA System
Exit Attachments

4H 5EMA System

  • #2,161
  • Dec 4, 2008 2:41am Dec 4, 2008 2:41am
Ill just mention this because I feel it is relavent to the current trade. One of the most reliable ways to trade is to position yourself with the sentiment 12-16 hours before news. So what do we have coming up in the way of new. Well this morning we have the ECB and the BOE interest rate decision. So where would you want to be positioned before the news if you had to choose long or short. Short clearly. More than likely if they are going to suprise, they are going to suprise with a bigger cut than expected so short is the clear answer atleast for a G/U short. Having said that if they do suprise with a bigger cut than expected the run down will be short lived and the following rally up will be much bigger than the spike down. So my advice for those that dont follow the system to a T and sometimes like to make there own decisions is the following. Hold the current position into the news tomorrow, there not, let me rephrase that, they most likely wont cut by less than expected and so that protects you there. If they do cut by more than expected you will make a quick extra 50-100 pips. I would if I were you exit with 50 pips or more on the spike and be out, wait for the market to rally and re-enter the short if the system is still short. You could quite possable lock in a lot of profit and then give yourself a much better short entry once the Pound rallies, all provided the system is still short of course.

Now this is not what I am telling you to do and I dont recommend it unless everything I said makes sense to you. Its just a option that could give you a lot of pips and its a very high probability trade. The room will not be doing this it will be following the system as per the rules it just a thought for the more experienced trades. If you want an example of what im talking about go to forexbastards.com and look at what the A/U did the first time the cut rates 3 months ago by 1%. Sell of going into the news, huge spike down and then a 300 pip rally up. This is what ive meant when I said what used to be good for a currency a year ago is now long term bad, and what used to be bad a year ago is now good long term. Will this go back to normal, sure but it will take the world econemy stabalizing a bit before this happens. And it wont change overnight either. News trading took a while to deteriorate and it will take a while to become good again. Just my 2 cents for the night

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,162
  • Dec 4, 2008 2:46am Dec 4, 2008 2:46am
Quoting CitiTrade
When did we become short??? Yesterday's short was closed by hitting the SL placed at the 50% at 1.4771!!
Wow now im confusing myself, looking at the wrong charts my bad were still flat. Thank you for catching that.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,163
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:02am Dec 4, 2008 3:02am
Quoting stersuhr
Ill just mention this because I feel it is relavent to the current trade. .....

-Sterling
Thanks Ster for your insight. I too am following up closely the fundies this early morning. Like you said, it is a great way to make a quick buck if you know what you're doing. Problem is, some of the anticipation of the rate cut has already been factored in (thus the big drop the past hour), so if they don't end up cutting as much as people are predicting, it might actually go up not down, I am sure you've seen it. But they can't afford not to cut a big chunk, because the UK's economy has been a mess. Technically speaking, it has also broken the support of 1.4557 (which was this year's low), so anything can happen.. maybe even 1.3680.

Anyway, do you recommend a place/room to discuss fundies?

Thanks for everything.
  • #2,164
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:11am Dec 4, 2008 3:11am
Quoting CitiTrade
Thanks Ster for your insight. I too am following up closely the fundies this early morning. Like you said, it is a great way to make a quick buck if you know what you're doing. Problem is, some of the anticipation of the rate cut has already been factored in (thus the big drop the past hour), so if they don't end up cutting as much as people are predicting, it might actually go up not down, I am sure you've seen it. But they can't afford not to cut a big chunk, because the UK's economy has been a mess. Technically speaking, it has also broken the...

Yeah I was short on the G/Y from 136.34 and made a cool 200 pips in a matter of an hour. If your going to do a trade like this you have to enter early, like I said before 12-16 hours early because you never know when the sentiment is going to kick in and the market is going to start pricing the higher cut in. It paid off well today as trades like this usually do. However I did the same with the NZD rate cut yesterday and only managed to net 3 pips because the market never wanted to price in a larger cut.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,165
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:02am Dec 4, 2008 4:02am
Hi everyone.
I sill in short from yesterday.
Sterling , can You explane why yesterday been apply 50% rule ?
Bar after two fails reversal bar been set up bar for long , it why I stay with short and put pending buystop order.
Thanks
Peter
  • #2,166
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:04am Dec 4, 2008 4:04am
Quoting stersuhr
The 50% rule comes into place when the setup bar fails. The bar you are talking about does hit where the 50% rule would have been but the 50% stop would not have been applied until the second reversal bar closes. Does this clear it up for you?

-Sterling
Yes very clear thanks.
  • #2,167
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:13am Dec 4, 2008 4:13am
Quoting pitpiter
Hi everyone.
I sill in short from yesterday.
Sterling , can You explane why yesterday been apply 50% rule ?
Bar after two fails reversal bar been set up bar for long , it why I stay with short and put pending buystop order.
Thanks
Peter
Were not short I was looking at my charts on my phone when I wrote that and didnt see the 50% line get hit, read the numbers wrong. It worked out well this time but probably will screw me next time. Basically you take the max amout of pips you were in profit. On the short it was like 218 and you take 50% of that which is 109 and add that from the point you entered and that is the 50% retracement rule. You just locking in half of the max profit you could have got. You do this when the trade ran atleast 150 pips in your favor and you have a failed setup bar and nowhere to put your stop. Does this clear it up?

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,168
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:25am Dec 4, 2008 4:25am
Quoting stersuhr
Well you look at the low of the bar and then move your mouse below that bar on the EMA and it will tell you what that EMA was at when the bar closed, thus you can see if the price breaks the EMA by the required 5 pips. Hope this helps

-Sterling
Stersuhr and all,

Yes, I know how to do it manually using the cursor etc. I'm looking for indicator that we can simply read off the chart and showing how many pips price passed H & L 5ema lines. I'll leave it doing manually then. Thanks again.
  • #2,169
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:28am Dec 4, 2008 4:28am
Quoting stersuhr
Were not short I was looking at my charts on my phone when I wrote that and didnt see the 50% line get hit, read the numbers wrong. It worked out well this time but probably will screw me next time. Basically you take the max amout of pips you were in profit. On the short it was like 218 and you take 50% of that which is 109 and add that from the point you entered and that is the 50% retracement rule. You just locking in half of the max profit you could have got. You do this when the trade ran atleast 150 pips in your favor and you have a failed...
You didn't undertand me , i didn't apply yesterday 50 % , like I wright before and still in short , now I about 350 profit and current bar is set up bar for long , I stay with short.
If it's possible , just when You back home please answer me why yesterday been apply 50% rule , because it think I can't get.
Thanks
Peter
  • #2,170
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:29am Dec 4, 2008 4:29am
Quoting ctnie2143
Stersuhr and all,

Yes, I know how to do it manually using the cursor etc. I'm looking for indicator that we can simply read off the chart and showing how many pips price passed H & L 5ema lines. I'll leave it doing manually then. Thanks again.
Yeah I dont know of anything like that yet, atleast to my knowledge no one has made one, sorry. Most of the time you dont have to look you can clearly see it broke the EMA by 5 pips atleast.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,171
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:12am Dec 4, 2008 5:12am
Well we have a new setup bar, but the range is really ugly, which will make for a hugh SL. Not sure I really want that much risk. Would have to reduce my position in half, at least.

Larry
  • #2,172
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:15am Dec 4, 2008 5:15am
Quoting LarryR
Well we have a new setup bar, but the range is really ugly, which will make for a hugh SL. Not sure I really want that much risk. Would have to reduce my position in half, at least.

Larry
This is one of those setup bars which will fail after 8 hours, unless we get a lower low on the next bar
Regards
  • #2,173
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:18am Dec 4, 2008 5:18am
Quoting howard
This is one of those setup bars which will fail after 8 hours
Your probably right - if anything the gbp will continue to depreciate. Wish I hadn't used the 50% rule!!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #2,174
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:40am Dec 4, 2008 5:40am
Quoting stersuhr
Were not short I was looking at my charts on my phone when I wrote that and didnt see the 50% line get hit, read the numbers wrong. It worked out well this time but probably will screw me next time. Basically you take the max amout of pips you were in profit. On the short it was like 218 and you take 50% of that which is 109 and add that from the point you entered and that is the 50% retracement rule. You just locking in half of the max profit you could have got. You do this when the trade ran atleast 150 pips in your favor and you have a failed...
Hi Sterling,

I have been meaning to ask you this. What is the logic behind locking half the profit after 2 failed reversal bars? I mean, isnt this a strong signal that the price will continue in the same original direction when the trade was initated(in this case short)? Thanks again
  • #2,175
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:47am Dec 4, 2008 5:47am
Quoting piptrees
Hi Sterling,

I have been meaning to ask you this. What is the logic behind locking half the profit after 2 failed reversal bars? I mean, isnt this a strong signal that the price will continue in the same original direction when the trade was initated(in this case short)? Thanks again

To be completely honest with you there is no logic behind it. My only logic I used was I like to give things enough room to go in are direction and 50% of max profit was A.) completely mechanical and easy to follow and B.) gives the trade enough room to go are direction...usually.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,176
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:49am Dec 4, 2008 5:49am
Quoting LarryR
Your probably right - if anything the gbp will continue to depreciate. Wish I hadn't used the 50% rule!!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
Well I think based on the trend that is possable and if they dont cut by the full 1% then you are right it will continue to depreciate. But if they cut by 1% or more the spike will be down but im fairly certain there will be a huge rally after that.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,177
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:52am Dec 4, 2008 5:52am
Quoting LarryR
Well we have a new setup bar, but the range is really ugly, which will make for a hugh SL. Not sure I really want that much risk. Would have to reduce my position in half, at least.

Larry

This is why I say to use 1 lot per 20K. It allows you to take every trade. You would really fell like crap if the G/U decided to rally 1000 or more pips from here and you lowered your lot size. Stick to the MM, take every trade and you cant go wrong.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,178
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:52am Dec 4, 2008 5:52am
Quoting stersuhr
To be completely honest with you there is no logic behind it. My only logic I used was I like to give things enough room to go in are direction and 50% of max profit was A.) completely mechanical and easy to follow and B.) gives the trade enough room to go are direction...usually.

-Sterling
That is enough logic, imagine if price had moved the other way, rallied.
Regards
  • #2,179
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:55am Dec 4, 2008 5:55am
Quoting howard
That is enough logic, imagine if price had moved the other way, rallied.
Bingo!

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #2,180
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:57am Dec 4, 2008 5:57am
3 minutes and counting this could be a big one!

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
0 traders viewing now