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Stop fooling yourself; There is no system

  • #121
  • Dec 3, 2008 12:54pm Dec 3, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting Papillon9
To Parisienne,

would you like to share which system worked the best for you? BTW es-tu francais(e)?

Merci!
Hi,

I'm really sorry but I cannot give my strategy to the public now. I have worked very long and very hard to build this signal indicator I am using. Hope you understand me. I know some people would just say I'm showing off, but my reason to answer this thread was to encourage traders. I have been very frustrated and helpless. But I never gave up learning.

I know it sounds silly but no one can achieve anything if he cannot imagine it is possible.

I have just read the reply from Markets2EZ and I like it. Think this will open some eyes.

Non, je viens de suisse allemand et je suis un homme. Je m'appelle parisienne parce que je fume cette marque de cigarette.

Regards
Wish you all success.
  • #122
  • Dec 3, 2008 1:30pm Dec 3, 2008 1:30pm
Vlad:
"And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was, W. Buffet would be his butler and Bill Gates his foot chair. 5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years. Unless you are a fat rat from a Federal reserve with insider's info, trading is glorified gambling no more and no less. Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry."


My first and likely last post here:have neither the time,energy,need to be stroked,nor inclination.

I:
-I have a minor edge on the others and that's all I need, about 80% wins.I spend a quarter of my time in Europe,half at home,quarter on holidays.Trade 10-18 hours a day,10 monitors..but then may not trade for a week or two.
-have been trading multiple lots for 4 years.Could be retired but I love what I do and beach life is so boring.
-keep $50-70k in my account and cash out (often daily) so figure out what I'm up to.

But yes,it is glorified gambling as are stocks,options,Russel,etc if one dosen't try to maximize the odds in his favour.

Just because I do well,doesn't mean I'm gonna run my account up to $Millions and play with $10,000 pips and make a $Million every day with $250,000-300,000k stops..that's just silly.

I'm just one of the lucky few who realizes the truth of the markets.

SFP
The harder I work,the luckier I get.
  • #123
  • Dec 3, 2008 2:26pm Dec 3, 2008 2:26pm
Quoting Vlad
Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry.
vlad, you fail to understand entire trading game, especially the end game. there are a many ways to become extremely rich as a trader, as you can easily see by reading financial publications. the problem with your logic is that your talking about a method of getting rich that is not realistic. making 5% per month is not how traders get rich, that is how novices THINK they will get rich. at least you understand yourself that this is impossible, but you are showing some novice thinking by promoting this as the only way to "make it".

as i said, there are many ways to get rich in this game, some of the paths are almost impossible, while others give you fighting chance. imo, the two most probable paths to success are achieving steady returns on huge somes of money (CTA, hedge fund manager, rich uncle, etc) or becoming a trader for a firm. neither is easy or quick, and it takes years of developing your trading skills before you can even consider embarking on such a path, but we are talking about huge rewards here so obviously the path will be difficult. difficult, but possible.
Relax and be happy.
  • #124
  • Dec 3, 2008 2:34pm Dec 3, 2008 2:34pm
Quoting Skippy

My first and likely last post here:have neither the time,energy,need to be stroked,nor inclination.

SFP
I salute you and envy you SFP just for your above stated, me too, I should have never ever posted on a public forum... for what?

This is going to be my last post as well; I wish you all well. Thank you Forex Factory and thank you to all members in here.

.
  • #125
  • Dec 13, 2008 1:33pm Dec 13, 2008 1:33pm
Quoting Markets2EZ
I don't normally go into forums and have not posted in a trading forum in years. I was recently sent an e-mail from a trader friend about this thread and all of the opinions responding to the OP. I am going to make this my first and last post for this forum. I feel the need to respond for those trying to conquer the markets. I would like nothing more for all traders to succeed, but I know that this will never happen.

The markets (any market) are/is very easy to trade. They are not chaotic as some would have you believe. They are very predictable....
you can predict markets with a high degree of accuracy? and how long have you had such success? what? 1 month? oh you've been doing this for 10+ years? 20+ years? then why aren't you richer than Bill Gates? or at least in the forbes top 100 list?
  • #126
  • Dec 13, 2008 1:42pm Dec 13, 2008 1:42pm
he's probably never traded but demoaccounts (if that)
Anyhow topic title gives a rather ironic meaning to all of this .. why would you be on forexfactory and starting an argument if you believed that trading is gambling?! I wouldn't go out to all the people who do stuff I think is not worth it to tell them that I think it's not worth it. Plainly makes no sense, because you wouldn't have time to trade
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #127
  • Dec 13, 2008 3:04pm Dec 13, 2008 3:04pm
You know something ? Vlad may be right about one thing.
There is no system that exists or could be built or fashioned that would work for everyone who implements it.

I've seen people who cannot drive a car. I don't mean drive poorly or wreckless driving, but can not
operate a motor vehicle, or any other piece of machinery for that matter, without causing harm to themselves.
This is not due to some physical handicap or defect either. They are just too goddamn stupid and lazy to figure it out.
Also, they are scared and afraid to fail (or worse maybe even hurt themselves or others) to try to do it.

I've gone to other countries and atleast tried to communicate in a language that is foreign to me.
I usually come off sounding like an idiot, but atleast trying to make an effort usually allows for some level of understanding.

Why is it then that some people come to the US, having never driven a car or spoken a word of english
and in a few months they're driving a cab for a living and speaking enough of the language to be productive ?
And then there are people who after 20 years still do not understand the most basic phrases
and now their kids are driving their lazy ass around town because they didn't bother to learn how.

Any of us here could write a book entitled, " How to Drive a Car and Speak ______(language) " and hand it out
to 100,000 people, even free of charge, and some would never even open the book to read it.
Others would talk about what a great book it is to learn from and they themselves will never read it.
Some will read the book once or twice, think they know what they're doing, and get in car and crash.
Afterwards, they'll tell the traffic officer, "...fuck you very much for your help..." and get arrested.
Still others will study the book and learn to speak and carefully think about what they're saying when they talk.
They will be good and attentive drivers using saftey and consideration while they operate the car.

A very small few persons will build on this tool (book) and go on to writing school and
become authors of books of their own, creating better books than the one we gave them to begin with.
A small few will become professional drivers, chauffers, race car heros, stuntmen, and all the like.
They'll attempt and successfully execute maneuvers none of us here would probably ever try behind the wheel of a car.

They all read the same book, had fairly much the same door open to them, all of them, and yet some failled,
some failed miserably and took people along for the ride, some succeeded, some excelled far beyond avereage and so on.

And so goes trading systems. It was once said you could give some people TOMORROW'S Wall Street Journal
and they would still lose money. For such as those, you cannot expect them to follow a "system" and profit.
It is likely nothing will help them. They are their own undoing and have a deep down desire to lose.
They cannot feel anything anymore and losing is their only proven way to quickly feel something, even if it's destructive.

If you've had any level of trading success, you'll no doubt be aware of others who are far above your level of skill.
Also, you'll know of many who struggle, just like you did before at that level of skill and nowadays,
you're usually on the other side of their trades now. Thank goodness, right ?
You'll know guys like you that make about the same, sometimes a little more or less, because you both trade the same.
Maybe if you compare PNL's/statements, you'll find you even took alot of the same trades at the same time.


How do you write a system that accounts for and adjusts itself to all those variables in human beings ?
After all it's human beings that are either doing the trading, or running the platform/software that's doing the trading.
You can not take the human element out because the human being can turn off the computer. He has the button.
He/she will turn the "system" on or off with a button and screw it up somehow or someway.
The system that overcomes this barrier has not, nor I dare say ever will be built.....atleast not by human beings
  • #128
  • Dec 13, 2008 3:13pm Dec 13, 2008 3:13pm
BTW: I'm not picking on anybody who doesn't speak english as a first or native language.

There are many beautiful languages in the world which I've heard and summarily butchered trying to speak them.

But if you can't drive, that's another story.......
  • #129
  • Dec 14, 2008 9:21pm Dec 14, 2008 9:21pm
Quoting Markets2EZ
I don't normally go into forums and have not posted in a trading forum in years. I was recently sent an e-mail from a trader friend about this thread and all of the opinions responding to the OP. I am going to make this my first and last post for this forum. I feel the need to respond for those trying to conquer the markets. I would like nothing more for all traders to succeed, but I know that this will never happen.

The markets (any market) are/is very easy to trade. They are not chaotic as some would have you believe. They are very predictable....
I would just like to say a little something to any of the newer members to the factory, most likely the younger and more naive one's.

Lets open our minds to the fact that something like what this user is suggesting does just so happen to exist, there is a way to forecast every move of the markets, every top and bottom, every tick.

If it was possible, it would also be entirely possible to turn $1000 in to $1million in a day trading a tick chart, every mini-swing. Afterall, to reach 1million from 1k is 'only' 10 doubles.

If you were able to do this....... would typing on a forum even be worth your time? A post like this is obviously used to prompt PM's, where he will then direct you to another site, and you will be sold garbage, dont be one of those naive one's to fall for it.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #130
  • Dec 14, 2008 10:58pm Dec 14, 2008 10:58pm
1post1der sez:

I don't normally go into forums and have not posted in a driving forum in years. I was recently sent an e-mail from a race car driver friend about this thread and all of the opinions responding to the OP. I am going to make this my first and last post for this forum. I feel the need for speed of those trying to conquer the streets. I would like nothing more for all drivers to succeed, but I know that this will never happen.

The streets (any street) are/is very easy to drive. They are not chaotic as some would have you believe. They are very predictable. I can tell anyone where the straights/curves are from Los Angeles to New York City and all truck stops in between. I not only can I pick speed traps, but I can also predict with a very high degree of accuracy if the traffic cop is in a shitty mood or if he is fat and happy with a belly full of hot coffee and doughnuts.

I would also like to comment on what most mainstream driving academy heads seem to parrot to keep the drivers from succeeding. I have seen these type of comments from most authors and people in high position of authority in the racing community.

The following comment is typical:

"Unfortunately, we may think we know which race is going to be the blockbuster, but the fact is, no matter what we may think, we never can know which race is going to be the good one and which race is going to go south until the race is over. We can help deal with that issue by cheating."

I do know when and where the races are going to be a "blockbuster" as the previous writer would say.

That comment couldn't be further from the truth. I prefer to feel like I am in control of the streets, not the other way around. I believe these types of comments are repeated either because the writers don't actually know for themselves how the races work or they are deceiving the reader. Either/Or they are deceiving the readers and causing harm to the driver from pursuing the perfect understanding of the streets.

Most self proclaimed professionals in the street racing arena that state these types of comments are only limited to their training and the world they live in. They use the term "blown head gasket" to cover their mistakes of NOT KNOWING. I sit and laugh when I hear them. If one knows where, why,and when, why would someone need to use nitrous? Think about it.

Having 20 bazillion hours of wheel time I can guarantee that road construction, bad weather, smokin' hot pit stop babes, or whatever excuse the media and high profile racers say, it doesn't make a difference in traffic movements.

It is absolutely possible to know?

Seek nitromethane, seek geared torque-sensitive differential. With all thy getting, get Escort Passport 9500i radar detector.



Take care and Happy Honking.

PS - sorry for my bad english
  • #131
  • Dec 14, 2008 11:09pm Dec 14, 2008 11:09pm
Quoting Skippy
-I have a minor edge on the others and that's all I need, about 80% wins.I spend a quarter of my time in Europe,half at home,quarter on holidays.Trade 10-18 hours a day,10 monitors..but then may not trade for a week or two.
-have been trading multiple lots for 4 years.Could be retired but I love what I do and beach life is so boring.
-keep $50-70k in my account and cash out (often daily) so figure out what I'm up to.

But yes,it is glorified gambling as are stocks,options,Russel,etc if one dosen't try to maximize the odds in his favour.

Just because I do well,doesn't mean I'm gonna run my account up to $Millions and play with $10,000 pips and make a $Million every day with $250,000-300,000k stops..that's just silly.

I'm just one of the lucky few who realizes the truth of the markets.
Maybe yes, maybe no, but there's one thing for sure - you guys brew some god awful f*ing beer. And that's no lie.
  • #132
  • Dec 14, 2008 11:29pm Dec 14, 2008 11:29pm
Nope, sorry there are many many thousands of people who know how to trade and make over 100% per annum...... just you wont find many of them posting on this forum.
I think what you are experiencing is that to be a successful
trader is really really hard and requires a sh#%t load of discipline , being well funded and having personal maturity all traits which are very rare in the general population.
Please explain your logic ?
  • #133
  • Dec 15, 2008 12:09am Dec 15, 2008 12:09am
Vlad, pls read this
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf PW Fooled by randomness.pdf   159 KB | 5,571 downloads
  • #134
  • Dec 15, 2008 3:23am Dec 15, 2008 3:23am
Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was, W. Buffet would be his butler and Bill Gates his foot chair. 5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years. Unless you are a fat rat from a Federal reserve with insider's info, trading is glorified gambling no more and no less. Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry.
You should be more Positive my friend!!

Vlad 2

  • #135
  • Dec 15, 2008 2:18pm Dec 15, 2008 2:18pm
Quoting parisienne
Hi,

I'm really sorry but I cannot give my strategy to the public now. I have worked very long and very hard to build this signal indicator I am using. Hope you understand me. I know some people would just say I'm showing off, but my reason to answer this thread was to encourage traders. I have been very frustrated and helpless. But I never gave up learning.

I know it sounds silly but no one can achieve anything if he cannot imagine it is possible.

I have just read the reply from Markets2EZ and I like it. Think this will open some eyes....
I want to see statmentss for every month in 2008. you can't expect us to belive you did not have a single loss.

again i ask how many trades did u make, 5?
  • #136
  • Dec 15, 2008 2:50pm Dec 15, 2008 2:50pm
Quoting Vlad
5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years.
it's actually 28.833 years. or 28 years, 9 months and about 9 days. fyi.
  • #137
  • Dec 15, 2008 3:22pm Dec 15, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
I want to see statmentss for every month in 2008. you can't expect us to belive you did not have a single loss.

again i ask how many trades did u make, 5?
Forget about it. The BS level in this thread has gone completely off the charts. Wear your boots next time you visit and remember to bring a shovel.
  • #138
  • Dec 15, 2008 5:10pm Dec 15, 2008 5:10pm
From now to the next 10yrs, I will continue to vote this thread the funniest. From the beginning of this thread to this point, I cannot help but laugh-cry (laughing unsptopably and soaking my cloth in tears).

Everyone here is just damn too funny. I enjoyed everyone that has contibuted both negatively and possitively and I celebrate you all.

Finally, Vlad, I don't think you are under duress to trade forex. You should simply do a business that is most viable to you. I don't think thousand of people/banks can be fooling themselves if the market is not real. There is a saying that 'forex is not fore everyone'; my own version of that saying is 'forex is for everyone but not everyone can make forex work for them'. When you are ready to learn from your mistakes, there is chance for improvement. Stop crying over the spilled beans - grow up.
  • #139
  • Dec 16, 2008 3:00am Dec 16, 2008 3:00am
Quoting tdion
John,

I don't trust his pretty graphs. He posted some on the Tkimble weekly scalper thread that were bogus.

He used media to create himself, much as Obama did. But I have not seen any evidence of him being great, let alone profitable.

In fact, his live trade calls aren't "live." The One Night Stand and First Strike have been barely profitable, if not in the red most of the time. But somehow his curve keeps going north, based on "secret" supplemental trades that occur in hindsight, not live.

It's a business. Watch out.

no one is going to try to refute this? I believe many traders here have Tradestation, Amibroker, Metastock and data to test TRT systems.

if i remember correct, he (TRT) said that the graphs were form tests using default settings of his systems as explained in the PDFs.

there is no importance for all you if after run the tests the 4 billion chart using 4% don't matches?
  • #140
  • Edited 3:42am Feb 1, 2009 3:27am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting parisienne
To find out a currency's course, compare it against USD and JPY. Example: to trade GBP, look how it is performing against USD and JPY. No need to look for other pairs. As long as GBP is falling simultaneously against USD and JPY it will continue to fall against all others. This is true for all other majors. This is a tiny secret that is so easy that most traders even do not consider it valuable.
i don't know if it will of interest of any but i found it to be ilogical. I was testing it in many TFs and this patterns definitilly do NOT happens.

see the image bellow. The blue line is GBPUSD and GBPJPY. Bellow is GBPCHF, GBPCAD and GBPAUD. At least two big moves in the blue line at the beginning of 29 and 30 jan; there was no response in the second group (GBPCHF, GBPAUD and GBPCAD).

http://img292.imageshack.us/my.php?i...onsensece8.gif


and i tried too with many TFs and with all super exotics like SGD, NOK, ZAR, etc. So, stop fooling yourself.
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