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UK joining the Euro? EURGBP at 1.0000 ?

  • #21
  • Dec 3, 2008 1:54pm Dec 3, 2008 1:54pm
Quoting Trader613
Correct me if I am wrong aediaz1:

Whoever does not trade off similar charts to yours needs to see a doctor?

Let me ask you this if I may: Is this your wise and positive contribution and comment on an open public forum where everyone is entitled to an opinion and is allowed and welcomed to show different views of the market?

Do you (and others; belekas finds this funny, search me???) feel better now about yourself having commented like this? Do you feel stronger now?

My best
hi
I don't see anything in your chart also... you put a chart with many lines without explanations... and everybody think it was a joke. if it was serious you have to explain it.
  • #22
  • Dec 4, 2008 1:55am Dec 4, 2008 1:55am
If both GBP and EUR rates are cut by the same amount... maybe EURGBP goes down a little... I am not sure if to close my long position since 1.83.... it's already protected but... you know...
  • #23
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:47am Dec 4, 2008 3:47am
Quoting emda
hi
I don't see anything in your chart also... you put a chart with many lines without explanations... and everybody think it was a joke. if it was serious you have to explain it.
Maybe he had the holy grail ? What have I done, scaring him away like that? lol.

Eur/gbp is doing fine so far. Let's see how much profit we're able to squish out of this flag.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #24
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:05am Dec 4, 2008 5:05am
A perfect flag tends to move fast and steady toward it's goal. Call me cautious, but if price isn't, I'm the first in line to secure profits;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: flag.jpg Size: 102 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #25
  • Dec 4, 2008 6:20am Dec 4, 2008 6:20am
Quoting aediaz1
A perfect flag tends to move fast and steady toward it's goal. Call me cautious, but if price isn't, I'm the first in line to secure profits;
  • #26
  • Dec 4, 2008 6:43am Dec 4, 2008 6:43am
looks like a 50 bounce at 8250 from the low of 7820 God I,ve become a bore !
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #27
  • Dec 8, 2008 10:38am Dec 8, 2008 10:38am
how are you... still in the trade ?
price at 0.8738 now... go go !!! nice !
  • #28
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:24am Dec 12, 2008 6:24am
only 50 pips more. I'll get half of the profit at 0,9000
  • #29
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:38am Dec 12, 2008 6:38am
Quoting emda
only 50 pips more. I'll get half of the profit at 0,9000
I had to close this trade with "only" 100 pips (had 20 pips SL so can't complain) since I left on a long-weekend trip on Thursday last week, unable to maintain the trade until late night on Monday. This trade was an perfect flag-trade.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #30
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:34am Dec 12, 2008 11:34am
0,90 target reached !
I'm happy with my half of it I don't mind if the rest is stopped now... will trail stop. what a ride
bye bye pound... british people... say hello to Euro
  • #31
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:35am Dec 12, 2008 11:35am
Quoting aediaz1
I had to close this trade with "only" 100 pips (had 20 pips SL so can't complain) since I left on a long-weekend trip on Thursday last week, unable to maintain the trade until late night on Monday. This trade was an perfect flag-trade.
not bad at all... that's a very good ratio.
  • #32
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:04pm Dec 12, 2008 12:04pm
The British Pound used to fluctuate between 13 and 7 French francs over many, many years. I remember it at 7 when I was travelling in India with a pocket full of pounds and I remember it at 13 some time later. Most often, it used to stabilise at 10.

Now, it's at 7.3 Francs.

There's a line of thought that having a currency that can sink sharply at times of need provides a stimulus to the economy that leads to a revaluation later.

Anyway, time will tell.
All flesh is as grass
  • #33
  • Dec 12, 2008 1:21pm Dec 12, 2008 1:21pm
The UK will NOT adopt the EURO within the next 5 years.
  • #34
  • Dec 13, 2008 10:56am Dec 13, 2008 10:56am
i have no idea if they will join or not, but i expect EUR/GBP will be at least 1,05 after 3 months from now.

Wave 3 is always the longest of them all and will reach around 0.9 soon , then is the 5 wave which will send it 0.95 then the ABC correction back to where we are now , and after that it will not stop anymore bcs the direction is sure, i expect this to happen within the first Q of 09.
Attached Image
  • #35
  • Edited 11:51am Dec 13, 2008 11:49am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting arthurb
i have no idea if they will join or not, but i expect EUR/GBP will be at least 1,05 after 3 months from now.

Wave 3 is always the longest of them all and will reach around 0.9 soon , then is the 5 wave which will send it 0.95 then the ABC correction back to where we are now , and after that it will not stop anymore bcs the direction is sure, i expect this to happen within the first Q of 09.
Why not consider 0.90 the finishing of wave 5 ... pull up a monthly chart.
Starting from low of year 2004 we can definitly count 5 waves.
However i'm not very in elliots stuff, just curiosity made me study it some time ago ...
The chart is not long-term its more like biblic-term....


forgot to say .. if it does not close above 0.90 .. wouldn't it be better if we switch to short mode?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #36
  • Dec 13, 2008 3:22pm Dec 13, 2008 3:22pm
well... I don't see any reason to stop the trend here because a top here in 1995... Seriously... a resistance is created if there are positions opened at that level.. Do you really think there are big polayers shorting the EURGBP since 1995? No... It will break... Also because the current crisis is bigger and the world is in a different situation now so we want to compare levels to fundamental situation.. there is no reason either to stop at 0,90.

and speaking about UK joining the euro... I don't see it soon of course... but.. even better... because... if they don't want to join now.. EURGBP maybe has to go much more than 1.0 to force them to join... this is already speculation of ideas...
  • #37
  • Dec 13, 2008 3:43pm Dec 13, 2008 3:43pm
it needs consolidation first , therefore a sideways move or a down correction which will be short considering all the bullish momentum that is gaining in face of the latest economic data form UK.
if you consider also the latest sentiment shift on the EUR vs USD as safe heaven and the sluggish performance of the GBP lately vs almost all the majors .
make a small prediction on the rate differentials between EUR and GBP in the forthcoming weeks and the sentiment move towards the fundamentals and you will see the pressure is put more on the GBP than on EUR.
the GBP has a bubble bursting , EZ hasnt one , at least not originated form inside , (aside from Spain, and Denmark , but denmark has not EUR).
consider also the bailout packages form both , i mean EUR or GBP per capita.
i myself see UK under a severe recession, which has only started.

Quote
Why not consider 0.90 the finishing of wave 5 ... pull up a monthly chart.
anyway you see it it will need a consolidation on the top, but i am prone to believe the trend will not reverse course, i see it more a stop in the middle of the 3 wave up and then consolidation for some weeks , until the economic data will come out , which at that time cannot be but only bad.

i also have added to the above reasoning my gutt feeling

i dont think it will be a 3 wave down , those levels are economically unsustainable for the UK economy in that kind of shape it is right now
  • #38
  • Dec 13, 2008 7:09pm Dec 13, 2008 7:09pm
Quoting emda
well... I don't see any reason to stop the trend here because a top here in 1995... Seriously... a resistance is created if there are positions opened at that level.. Do you really think there are big polayers shorting the EURGBP since 1995? No... It will break......


Quoting arthurb
it needs consolidation first , therefore a sideways move or a down correction which will be short considering all the bullish momentum that is gaining in face of the latest economic data form UK.
if you consider also the latest sentiment shift on the EUR vs USD as safe heaven and the sluggish performance of the GBP lately vs almost all the majors .
make a small prediction on the rate differentials between EUR and GBP in the forthcoming weeks and the sentiment move towards the fundamentals and you will see the pressure is put more on the GBP than...
.. talking about EW in any case if my ipotetical monthly wave 5 is in construction, scaling down on weekly we can see that it's completing wave 3 ... so what i'll be expecting is a little downside after touching the resistance so to create wave 4 and then maybe a shoot up to level 1.00 ...
thanks for your opinion guys ... I really ain't tryng to predict a thing here, I don't have the necessary education to do so. I'm trying to get started in macroeconomics studies but trading simply of a neked chart .
  • #39
  • Dec 14, 2008 12:43am Dec 14, 2008 12:43am
for me going up is just a matter of time now , and if they will have on the EUR the face of the queen or the face of the brown or darling or king , that is just a matter of simple design and estethics and of course a matter of time .
  • #40
  • Dec 14, 2008 12:58am Dec 14, 2008 12:58am
Quoting arthurb
for me going up is just a matter of time now , and if they will have on the EUR the face of the queen or the face of the brown or darling or king , that is just a matter of simple design and estethics and of course a matter of time .
I subscribe to that, once the psychological barrier is broken (1 generation at most) this will happen.
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